A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Inverse aerodynamic design applications using the MGM hybrid formulation

The well-known modified Garabedian-Mcfadden (MGM) method is an attractive alternative for aerodynamic inverse design, for its simplicity and effectiveness (P. Garabedian and G. Mcfadden, Design of supercritical swept wings, AIAA J. 20(3) (1982), 289-291; J.B. Malone, J. Vadyak, and L.N. Sankar, Inverse aerodynamic design method for aircraft components, J. Aircraft 24(2) (1987), 8-9; Santos, A hybrid optimization method for aerodynamic design of lifting surfaces, PhD Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1993). Owing to these characteristics, the method has been the subject of several authors over the years (G.S. Dulikravich and D.P. Baker, Aerodynamic shape inverse design using a Fourier series method, in AIAA paper 99-0185, AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Reno, NV, January 1999; D.H. Silva and L.N. Sankar, An inverse method for the design of transonic wings, in 1992 Aerospace Design Conference, No. 92-1025 in proceedings, AIAA, Irvine, CA, February 1992, 1-11; W. Bartelheimer, An Improved Integral Equation Method for the Design of Transonic Airfoils and Wings, AIAA Inc., 1995). More recently, a hybrid formulation and a multi-point algorithm were developed on the basis of the original MGM. This article discusses applications of those latest developments for airfoil and wing design. The test cases focus on wing-body aerodynamic interference and shock wave removal applications. The DLR-F6 geometry is picked as the baseline for the analysis.

Inorganic elements in the fat bodies of Diatraea saccharalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) larvae parasitized by Cotesia flavipes (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)

Koinobiont parasitoids use several strategies to regulate the host`s physiological processes during parasitism. Although many aspects of host-parasitoid interactions have been explored, studies that attempted to assess the effects of parasitism on the availability of inorganic elements in the host are virtually nonexistent. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the effects of parasitism on the concentrations of inorganic elements in the fat bodies of larvae of Diatraea saccharalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) during the development of the parasitoid Cotesia flavipes (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), by using total reflection X-ray fluorescence (TXRF). TXRF analysis allowed comparisons of the changes in the availability of the elements P. S. K, Ca, Cr, Fe, Ni, Cu, and Zn in the fat body tissues of D. saccharalis larvae parasitized by C. flavipes. Overall, the concentration of inorganic elements was higher early in parasitoid development (1 and 3 days after parasitism) compared to non-parasitized larvae, but much lower towards the end of parasitoid development (7 and 9 days after parasitism). Ca, K, and S were reduced after the fifth day of parasitism, which affected the total abundance of inorganic elements observed in the fat bodies of the parasitized hosts. The regulatory mechanisms or pathological effects related to the observed variation of the host inorganic elements induced by the parasitoid remain unknown, but there might be a strategy to make these elements available to the parasitoid larvae at the end of their development, when higher metabolic activity of the host fat body is required to sustain parasitoid growth. The observed variation of the host`s inorganic elements could also be related to the known effects of parasitism on the host`s immune response. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MICROORGANISMS IN ORGANIC AND NON ORGANIC HONEY SAMPLES OF AFRICANIZED HONEYBEES

This research was carried out to evaluate and compare 11 organic honey samples and six non organic honey samples, respectively, harvested from islands of the triple frontier (Sao Paulo, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul states) and from the state of Parana, Brazil. The samples were studied for the presence of coliforms from 35 degrees C, to 45 degrees C and the enumeration of moulds and yeast, a minimum of 1.9 x 10(2) and a maximum of 1.1 x 10(3) CFU/g were observed in organic honey and a minimum of 1.8 x 10(1) and a maximum of 2.5 x 10(2) CFU/g were in non organic honey. In this studied region, the organic honey presented a microbiological quality inferior to the non organic honey.

Volatile organic compounds produced by Saccharomyces cerevisiae inhibit the in vitro development of Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot

Due to the low chemical control effectiveness of citrus black spot, caused by the fungus Guignardia citricarpa at postharvest, and to the search for alternative control methods, this study aimed to evaluate the in vitro effect of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), produced by yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, on G. citricarpa. It was observed that the yeast strains evaluated acted as antagonists by VOC production, whose maximum inhibitory capacity was as high as 87.2%. The presence of fermentable carbon sources in the medium was essential for the bioactive VOC production by the yeast. The analysis of VOCs produced in PDA medium by SPME-GC-MS indicated the presence of high quantities of alcohols as well as esters. An artificial VOC mixture prepared on the basis of the composition of the VOCs mimicked the inhibitory effects of the natural VOCs released by S. cerevisiae. Thus, the VOCs produced by the yeast or the artificial mixtures can be a promising control method for citrus black spot or others postharvest diseases.

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection Rust caused by the fungus Puccinia psidii is currently the most important disease of eucalyptus. It is widely disseminated in Brazil, and causes serious damage in nurseries and plantation areas. The identification of resistant germplasm along with knowledge of the genetic basis of resistance heredity are the first requirements for the success of breeding programs aiming to develop resistant varieties. Earlier studies carried out under controlled conditions suggested a monogenic control as well as the participation of at least two genes promoting resistance to rust. The goal of this study was to evaluate the resistance to P. psidii under field conditions in fourteen progenies from controlled crosses and self-crosses among four hybrid clones of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden x Eucalyptus urophylla ST Blake that contrast for resistance to the fungus. Results indicated that resistance could be explained by one locus with main effects and at least three different alleles. However, loci with minor effects may influence the resistance, since variation on severity classes was observed. Differences in segregation of resistance between reciprocal crosses were not observed, indicating absence of cytoplasmic effects.

Peach brown rot incidence related to pathogen infection at different stages of fruit development in an organic peach production system

Brown rot, caused by Monilinia fructicola, is the most widespread disease for organic peach production systems in Brazil. The objective of this study was to determine the favorable periods for latent infection by M. fructicola in organic systems. The field experiment was carried out during 2006, 2007 and 2008 using the cultivar Aurora. After thinning fruits were bagged using white paraffin bags, and the treatments were performed by removing the bags and exposing the fruit for four days to the natural infection during each of seven fruit stages from pit hardening to harvest. Throughout the entire growing season, the conidial density and the weather variables were measured and related to the disease incidence using multiple regression analyses. At the fourth day after harvest in each season, the cumulative disease incidence was assessed, and it ranged from 40 to 98%. The incidence of brown rot on fruit that were exposed during the embryo growing stage was lower than that of unbagged fruit throughout the entire season in 2006 and 2008. The relative humidity and the conidia density were significantly correlated to disease incidence. Based on our results, M. fructicola can infect peaches during any stage of fruit development, and control of the disease must be revised to account for organic peach production systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pyrolysis-Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry of Soil Organic Matter Extracted from a Brazilian Mangrove and Spanish Salt Marshes

The soil organic matter (SOM) extracted under different vegetation types from a Brazilian mangrove (Pai Matos Island, Sao Paulo State) and from three Spanish salt marshes (Betanzos Ria and Corrubedo Natural Parks, Galicia, and the Albufera Natural Park, Valencia) was investigated by pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS). The chemical variation was larger in SOM from the Spanish marshes than in the SOM of the Brazilian mangroves, possibly because the marshes included sites with both tidal and nontidal variation, whereas the mangrove forest underwent just tidal variation. Thus, plant-derived organic matter was better preserved under permanently anoxic environments. Moreover, given the low number of studied profiles and sedimentary-vegetation sequences in both areas, depth trends remain unclear. The chemical data also allow distinction between the contributions of woody and nonwoody vegetation inputs. Soil organic matter decomposition was found to cause: (i) a decrease in lignin contents and a relative increase in aliphatics; (ii) an increase in short-chain aliphatics at the expense of longer ones; (iii) a loss of odd-over-even dominance in alkanes and alkenes; and (iv) an increase in microbial products, including proteins, sterols, short-chain fatty acids, and alkanes. Pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry is a useful tool to study the behavior and composition of SOM in wetland environments such as mangroves and salt marshes. Additional profiles need to be studied for each vegetation type, however, to improve the interpretability of the chemical data.

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Robust and accurate regional estimates of C storage in soils are currently an important research topic because of ongoing debate about human-induced changes in the terrestrial C cycle. Widely available geoprocessing tools were applied to estimate native soil organic C (SOC) stocks of Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil to a depth of 30 cm from previously sampled soil pedons under undisturbed vegetation. The study used a statewide comprehensive soil survey comprising a small-scale soil map, a climate map, and a soil pedon database. Soil organic C stocks under native vegetation were calculated with two different approaches: the Tier 1 method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a refined method based on actual field measurements derived from soil profile data. Highest SOC stocks occurred in Neossolos Quartzarenico hidromorfico (Aquents), Organossolos Tiomorficos (Hemists), Latossolos Brunos (Udox), and Vertissolos Ebanicos (Uderts) soil classes. Before human use of soils, most C was stored in the Latossolos Vermelhos (Udox) and Neossolos Regoliticos (Orthents), which occupy a large area of Rio Grande do Sul. Generally, IPCC default reference SOC stocks compared well with SOC stocks calculated from soil pedons. The total SOC stock of Rio Grande do Sul was estimated at 1510.3 Tg C (5.8 kg C m(-2)) by the IPPC method and 1597.5 +/- 363.9 Tg C (7.4 +/- 1.9 kg C m(-2)) calculated from soil pedons. The SOC digital map and SOC database developed in this study provide crucial background information for state-level contemporary assessment of C stocks and soil C sequestration programs and initiatives.

Contribution of soil organic carbon to the ion exchange capacity of tropical soils

Highly weathered soils represent about 3 billion ha of the tropical region. Oxisols represent about 60% of the Brazilian territory (more than 5 million km 2), in areas of great agricultural importance. Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be responsible for more than 80% of the cation exchange capacity (CEC) of highly weathered soils, such as Oxisols and Ultisols. The objective of this study was to estimate the contribution of the SOC to the CEC of Brazilian soils from different orders. Surface samples (0.0 to 0.2 m) of 30 uncultivated soils (13 Oxisols, 6 Ultisols, 5 Alfisols, 3 Entisols, I Histosol, 1 Inceptisol. and I Molisol), under native forests and from reforestation sites from Sao Paulo State, Brazil, were collected in order to obtain a large variation of (electro)chemical, physical, and mineralogical soil attributes. Total content of SOC was quantified by titulometric and colorimetric methods. Effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) was obtained by two methods: the indirect method-summation-estimated the ECECi from the sum of basic cations (Ca+ Mg+ K+ Na) and exchangeable Al; and the direct ECECd obtained by the compulsive exchange method, using unbuffered BaCl2 solution. The contribution of SOC to the soil CEC was estimated by the Bennema statistical method. The amount of SOC var ied from 6.6 g kg(-1) to 213.4 g kg(-1). while clay contents varied from 40 g kg(-1) to 716 g kg(-1). Soil organic carbon contents were strongly associated to the clay contents, suggesting that clay content was the primary variable in controling the variability of SOC contents in the samples. Cation exchange capacity varied from 7.0 mmol(c) kg(-1) to 137.8 mmol(c) kg(-1) and had a positive Correlation with SOC. The mean contribution (per grain) of the SOC (1.64 mmol(c)) for the soil CEC was more than 44 times higher than the contribution of the clay fraction (0.04 mmol(c),). A regression model that considered the SOC content as the only significant variable explained 60% of the variation in the soil total CEC. The importance of SOC was related to soil pedogenetic process, since its contribution to the soil CEC was more evident in Oxisols with predominance of Fe and Al (oxihydr)oxides in the mineral fraction or in Ultisols, that presented illuviated clay. The influence of SOC in the sign and in the magnitude of the net charge of soils reinforce the importance of agricultural management systems that preserve high levels of SOC, in order to improve their sustainability.

Greenhouse gases emission from soil contaminated with automobile industry residue in Brazil

Solid waste of the automobile industry containing large amounts of heavy metals might affect the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) when applied to the soil. Accumulation of inorganic chemical elements in the environment generally occurs due to human activity (industry, agriculture, mining and waste landfills). Residues from human activities may release heavy metals to the soil solution, causing toxicity to plants and other soil organisms. Heavy metals may also be adsorbed to clay minerals and/or complexed by the soil organic matter, becoming a potential source of pollutants. Not much is known about the behavior of solid wastes in tropical soil as regarded as source of greenhouse gases (GHG). The emission of GHG (CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O) was evaluated in incubated soil samples collected in an area contaminated with a solid residue from an automobile industry. Samples were randomly collected at 0 to 0.2 m (a mix of soil and residue), 0.2 to 0.4 m (only residue) and 0.4 to 0.6 m (only soil). A contiguous uncontaminated area, cultivated with sugarcane, was also sampled following the same protocol. Canonical Discriminant Analysis and Principal Component Analysis were applied to the data to evaluate the GHG emission rates. Emission rates of GHG were greater in the samples from the contaminated than the sugarcane area, particularly high during the first days of incubation. CO(2) emissions were greater in samples collected at the upper layer for both areas, while CH(4) and N(2)O emissions were similar in all samples. The emission rates of CH(4) were the most efficient variables to differentiate contaminated and uncontaminated areas.

Method development and optimization for the determination of selenium in bean and soil samples using hydride generation electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

The present investigation is the first part of an initiative to prepare a regional map of the natural abundance of selenium in various areas of Brazil, based on the analysis of bean and soil samples. Continuous-flow hydride generation electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (HG-ET AAS) with in situ trapping on an iridium-coated graphite tube has been chosen because of the high sensitivity and relative simplicity. The microwave-assisted acid digestion for bean and soil samples was tested for complete recovery of inorganic and organic selenium compounds (selenomethionine). The reduction of Se(VI) to Se(IV) was optimized in order to guarantee that there is no back-oxidation, which is of importance when digested samples are not analyzed immediately after the reduction step. The limits of detection and quantification of the method were 30 ng L(-1) Se and 101 ng L(-1) Se, respectively, corresponding to about 3 ng g(-1) and 10 ng g(-1), respectively, in the solid samples, considering a typical dilution factor of 100 for the digestion process. The results obtained for two certified food reference materials (CRM), soybean and rice, and for a soil and sediment CRM confirmed the validity of the investigated method. The selenium content found in a number of selected bean samples varied between 5.5 +/- 0.4 ng g(-1) and 1726 +/- 55 ng g(-1), and that in soil samples varied between 113 +/- 6.5 ng g(-1) and 1692 +/- 21 ng g(-1). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.