853 resultados para optimism bias


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This paper examines the dynamic behaviour of relative prices across seven Australian cities by applying panel unit root test procedures with structural breaks to quarterly consumer price index data for 1972 Q1–2011 Q4. We find overwhelming evidence of convergence in city relative prices. Three common structural breaks are endogenously determined at 1985, 1995, and 2007. Further, correcting for two potential biases, namely Nickell bias and time aggregation bias, we obtain half-life estimates of 2.3–3.8 quarters that are much shorter than those reported by previous research. Thus, we conclude that both structural breaks and bias corrections are important to obtain shorter half-life estimates.

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The central thesis in the article is that the venture creation process is different for innovative versus imitative ventures. This holds up; the pace of the process differs by type of venture as do, in line with theory-based hypotheses, the effects of certain human capital (HC) and social capital (SC) predictors. Importantly, and somewhat unexpectedly, the theoretically derived models using HC, SC, and certain controls are relatively successful explaining progress in the creation process for the minority of innovative ventures, but achieve very limited success for the imitative majority. This may be due to a rationalistic bias in conventional theorizing and suggests that there is need for considerable theoretical development regarding the important phenomenon of new venture creation processes. Another important result is that the building up of instrumental social capital, which we assess comprehensively and as a time variant construct, is important for making progress with both types of ventures, and increasingly, so as the process progresses. This result corroborates with stronger operationalization and more appropriate analysis method what previously published research has only been able to hint at.

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This paper reports a comparison of the practicality, acceptability and face validity of five dietary intake methods in two remote Australian Aboriginal communities: weighed dietary intake, 24‐hour recall, ‘store‐turnover’, diet history and food frequency methods. The methods used to measure individual dietary intake were poorly accepted by the communities. Quantitative data were obtained only from the first three methods. The 24‐hour recall method tended to produce higher nutrient intakes than the weighed intake method and certain foods appeared to be selectively recalled according to perceived nutritional desirability. The ‘store‐turnover’ method was most acceptable to the communities and had less potential for bias than the other methods. It was also relatively objective, non‐intrusive, rapid, easy and inexpensive. However, food distribution patterns within the communities could not be assessed by this method. Nevertheless, other similarly isolated communities may benefit by use of the ‘store‐turnover’ method.

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This chapter presents an historical narrative on the recent evolution of information and communications technology (ICT) that has been, and is, utilized for purposes of learning. In other words, it presents an account of the development of e-learning supported through the Web and other similar virtual environments. It does not attempt to present a definitive account; as such an exercise is fraught with assumptions, contextual bias, and probable conjecture. The concern here is more with contextualizing the role of inquiry in learning and the evolving digital tools that enable interfaces that promote and support it. In tracking this evolution, both multi-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary research has been pursued. Key historical developments are identified as well as interpretations of the key drivers of e-learning over time and into what might be better described as digital learning. Innovations in the development of digital tools are described as dynamic and emergent, evolving as a consequence of multiple, sometimes hidden drivers of change. But conflating advancements in learning technologies with e-learning seems to be pervasive. As is the push for the “open” agenda – a growing number of initiatives and movements dominated by themes associated with access, intellectual property, public benefit, sharing and technical interoperability. Openness is also explored in this chapter, however, more in terms of what it means when associated with inquiry. By investigating opportunities for the stimulation and support of questioning online – in particular, why-questioning – this chapter is focused on “opening” content – not just for access but for inquiry and deeper learning.

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We write in response to the letter by Liu et al. [1] commenting on our article, ‘‘Mesenchymal Stem Cells Regulate Angiogenesis According to Their Mechanical Environment’’ [2]. The study by Liu et al. demonstrates that the commonly used endogeneous reference gene (ERG), b-actin, is upregulated by mechanical loading, indicating a potential bias in the determined target gene expression when normalizing to b-actin, such as in our report on unchanged vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and hypoxia-inducible factors (HIF)-1a mRNA levels in mechanically loaded mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs).

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Currently, the GNSS computing modes are of two classes: network-based data processing and user receiver-based processing. A GNSS reference receiver station essentially contributes raw measurement data in either the RINEX file format or as real-time data streams in the RTCM format. Very little computation is carried out by the reference station. The existing network-based processing modes, regardless of whether they are executed in real-time or post-processed modes, are centralised or sequential. This paper describes a distributed GNSS computing framework that incorporates three GNSS modes: reference station-based, user receiver-based and network-based data processing. Raw data streams from each GNSS reference receiver station are processed in a distributed manner, i.e., either at the station itself or at a hosting data server/processor, to generate station-based solutions, or reference receiver-specific parameters. These may include precise receiver clock, zenith tropospheric delay, differential code biases, ambiguity parameters, ionospheric delays, as well as line-of-sight information such as azimuth and elevation angles. Covariance information for estimated parameters may also be optionally provided. In such a mode the nearby precise point positioning (PPP) or real-time kinematic (RTK) users can directly use the corrections from all or some of the stations for real-time precise positioning via a data server. At the user receiver, PPP and RTK techniques are unified under the same observation models, and the distinction is how the user receiver software deals with corrections from the reference station solutions and the ambiguity estimation in the observation equations. Numerical tests demonstrate good convergence behaviour for differential code bias and ambiguity estimates derived individually with single reference stations. With station-based solutions from three reference stations within distances of 22–103 km the user receiver positioning results, with various schemes, show an accuracy improvement of the proposed station-augmented PPP and ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions with respect to the standard float PPP solutions without station augmentation and ambiguity resolutions. Overall, the proposed reference station-based GNSS computing mode can support PPP and RTK positioning services as a simpler alternative to the existing network-based RTK or regionally augmented PPP systems.

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Research has found that children exposed to family violence exhibit higher rates of maladjustment. We review relevant literature on family violence, marital conflict, and cognitive factors implicated in child behaviour problems. A bias toward perceiving threat in ambiguous contexts has been identified as one factor mediating both aggressive and anxious behaviour disorders. We conducted a study utilizing the ambiguous situations paradigm to assess whether children exposed to violent spousal conflict were more likely than children not exposed to violence (divided into children with an externalizing behaviour disorder and non-clinic children) to perceive threat in two classes of ambiguous situations: Peer and Inter-Parental. The results indicated that children exposed to violent spousal conflict perceived more threat in parental situations than either of the other two groups. A number of considerations were taken into account given the exploratory nature of the study, particularly sample limitations. We conclude with suggestions for improvements to the research design and the further relevance of exploring cognitive factors involved in the adjustment of children from backgrounds of violence.

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the perceptions of near-misses and mistakes among new graduate occupational therapists from Australia and Aotearoa/New Zealand (NZ), and their knowledge of current incident reporting systems. Design/methodology/approach - New graduate occupational therapists in Australia and Aotearoa/NZ in their first year of practice (n=228) participated in an online electronic survey that examined five areas of work preparedness. Near-misses and mistakes was one focus area. Findings - The occurrence and disclosure of practice errors among new graduate occupational therapists are similar between Australian and Aotearoa/NZ participants. Rural location, structured supervision and registration status significantly influenced the perceptions and reporting of practice errors. Structured supervision significantly impacted on reporting procedure knowledge. Current registration status was strongly correlated with perceptions that the workplace encouraged event reporting. Research limitations/ implications - Areas for further investigation include investigating the perceptions and knowledge of practice errors within a broader profession and the need to explore definitional aspects and contextual factors of adverse events that occur in allied health settings. Selection bias may be a factor in this study. Practical implications - Findings have implications for university and workplace structures, such as clinical management, supervision, training about practice errors and reporting mechanisms in allied health. Originality/value - Findings may enable the development of better strategies for detecting, managing and preventing practice errors in the allied health professions.

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Body composition of 292 males aged between 18 and 65 years was measured using the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Participants were divided into development (n=146) and cross-validation (n=146) groups. Stature, body weight, skinfold thickness at eight sites, girth at five sites, and bone breadth at four sites were measured and body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) calculated. Equations were developed using multiple regression analyses with skinfolds, breadth and girth measures, BMI, and other indices as independent variables and percentage body fat (%BF) determined from deuterium dilution technique as the reference. All equations were then tested in the cross-validation group. Results from the reference method were also compared with existing prediction equations by Durnin and Womersley (1974), Davidson et al (2011), and Gurrici et al (1998). The proposed prediction equations were valid in our cross-validation samples with r=0.77- 0.86, bias 0.2-0.5%, and pure error 2.8-3.6%. The strongest was generated from skinfolds with r=0.83, SEE 3.7%, and AIC 377.2. The Durnin and Womersley (1974) and Davidson et al (2011) equations significantly (p<0.001) underestimated %BF by 1.0 and 6.9% respectively, whereas the Gurrici et al (1998) equation significantly (p<0.001) overestimated %BF by 3.3% in our cross-validation samples compared to the reference. Results suggest that the proposed prediction equations are useful in the estimation of %BF in Indonesian men.

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The majority of academic research has attempted to explain the effectiveness of sponsorship activities by focusing on individual outcomes (Cornwell, Weeks, & Roy, 2005). The current research builds upon the limited empirical studies that examine sponsorship outcomes using group behaviour theories (Cornwell & Coote, 2005; Gwinner & Swanson, 2003; Madrigal, 2000, 2001). Specifically, this study closely examines tenets of social identity theory (Brewer, 1991; Tajfel & Turner, 1979) within the context of sports sponsorship to test effects of team identification on attitudes toward associated sponsor brands. 1,840 unique surveys were collected from fans of the Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues rugby clubs over four timepoints during the 2012 State of Origin series. The results suggest that social identity effects were present regarding ingroup bias toward sponsor brands. Local sponsors were rated higher than non-local sponsors, suggesting that local brands may benefit more from sponsorship.

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Australia's economic growth and national identity have been widely celebrated as being founded on the nation's natural resources. With the golden era of pastoralism fading into the distance, a renewed love affair with primary industries has been much lauded, particularly by purveyors of neoliberal ideology. The considerable wealth generated by resource extraction has, despite its environmental and social record, proved seductive to the university sector. The mining industry is one of a number of industries and sectors (alongside pharmaceutical, chemical and biotechnological) that is increasingly courting Australian universities. These new public-private alliances are often viewed as the much-needed cash cow to bridge the public funding shortfall in the tertiary sector. However, this trend also raises profound questions about the capacity of public good institutions, as universities were once assumed to be, to maintain institutional independence and academic freedoms.

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Background There are few data regarding the effectiveness of remote monitoring for older people with heart failure. We conducted a post-hoc sub-analysis of a previously published large Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant randomized controlled trials to determine whether structured telephone support and telemonitoring were effective in this population. Methods A post hoc sub-analysis of a systematic review and meta-analysis that applied the Cochrane methodology was conducted. Meta-analyses of all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalizations and heart failure-related hospitalizations were performed for studies where the mean or median age of participants was 70 or more years. Results The mean or median age of participants was 70 or more years in eight of the 16 (n=2,659/5,613; 47%) structured telephone support studies and four of the 11 (n=894/2,710; 33%) telemonitoring studies. Structured telephone support (RR 0.80; 95% CI=0.63-1.00) and telemonitoring (RR 0.56; 95% CI=0.41-0.76) interventions reduced mortality. Structured telephone support interventions reduced heart failure-related hospitalizations (RR 0.81; 95% CI=0.67-0.99). Conclusion Despite a systematic bias towards recruitment of individuals younger than the epidemiological average into the randomized controlled trials, older people with heart failure did benefit from structured telephone support and telemonitoring. These post-hoc sub-analysis results were similar to overall effects observed in the main meta-analysis. While further research is required to confirm these observational findings, the evidence at hand indicates that discrimination by age alone may be not be appropriate when inviting participation in a remote monitoring service for heart failure.

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The aim of this study is to estimate the ratio of male and female participants in Sports and Exercise Medicine research. Original research articles published in three major Sports and Exercise Medicine journals (Medicine and Science in Sport and Exercise, British Journal of Sports Medicine and American Journal of Sports Medicine) over a three year period were examined. Each article was screened to determine the following: total number of participants, the number of female participants and the number of male participants. The percentage of females and males per article in each of the journals was also calculated. Cross tabulations and Chi square analysis were used to compare the gender representation of participants within each of the journals. Data were extracted from 1, 382 articles involving a total of 6, 076, 705 participants. 2, 366, 998 (39%) participants were female and 3, 709, 707 (61%) male. The average percentage of female participants per article across the journals ranged from 35-37%. Females were significantly under-represented across all of the journals (X2 =23566, df=2, p<0.00001). There were no significant differences between the three journals. In conclusion, Sports and Exercise Medicine practitioners should be cognisant of sexual dimorphism and gender disparity in the current literature.

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This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

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The mitochondrial (mt) genome is, to date, the most extensively studied genomic system in insects, outnumbering nuclear genomes tenfold and representing all orders versus very few. Phylogenomic analysis methods have been tested extensively, identifying compositional bias and rate variation, both within and between lineages, as the principal issues confronting accurate analyses. Major studies at both inter- and intraordinal levels have contributed to our understanding of phylogenetic relationships within many groups. Genome rearrangements are an additional data type for defining relationships, with rearrangement synapomorphies identified across multiple orders and at many different taxonomic levels. Hymenoptera and Psocodea have greatly elevated rates of rearrangement offering both opportunities and pitfalls for identifying rearrangement synapomorphies in each group. Finally, insects are model systems for studying aberrant mt genomes, including truncated tRNAs and multichromosomal genomes. Greater integration of nuclear and mt genomic studies is necessary to further our understanding of insect genomic evolution.