How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Numerical algorithm for Ginzburg-Landau equations with multiplicative noise: Application to domain growth

We consider stochastic partial differential equations with multiplicative noise. We derive an algorithm for the computer simulation of these equations. The algorithm is applied to study domain growth of a model with a conserved order parameter. The numerical results corroborate previous analytical predictions obtained by linear analysis.

Finite-size scaling analysis of the avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics

A numerical study is presented of the third-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model at T=0 driven by an external field. Standard synchronous relaxation dynamics is employed to obtain the magnetization versus field hysteresis loops. The focus is on the analysis of the number and size distribution of the magnetization avalanches. They are classified as being nonspanning, one-dimensional-spanning, two-dimensional-spanning, or three-dimensional-spanning depending on whether or not they span the whole lattice in different space directions. Moreover, finite-size scaling analysis enables identification of two different types of nonspanning avalanches (critical and noncritical) and two different types of three-dimensional-spanning avalanches (critical and subcritical), whose numbers increase with L as a power law with different exponents. We conclude by giving a scenario for avalanche behavior in the thermodynamic limit.

Numerical signs fos a transition in the 2d Random Field Ising Model at T=0

Intensive numerical studies of exact ground states of the two-dimensional ferromagnetic random field Ising model at T=0, with a Gaussian distribution of fields, are presented. Standard finite size scaling analysis of the data suggests the existence of a transition at ¿c=0.64±0.08. Results are compared with existing theories and with the study of metastable avalanches in the same model.

Systematic weakly nonlinear analysis of radial viscous fingering

We present a weakly nonlinear analysis of the interface dynamics in a radial Hele-Shaw cell driven by both injection and rotation. We extend the systematic expansion introduced in [E. Alvarez-Lacalle et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 016302 (2001)] to the radial geometry, and compute explicitly the first nonlinear contributions. We also find the necessary and sufficient condition for the uniform convergence of the nonlinear expansion. Within this region of convergence, the analytical predictions at low orders are compared satisfactorily to exact solutions and numerical integration of the problem. This is particularly remarkable in configurations (with no counterpart in the channel geometry) for which the interplay between injection and rotation allows that condition to be satisfied at all times. In the case of the purely centrifugal forcing we demonstrate that nonlinear couplings make the interface more unstable for lower viscosity contrast between the fluids.

Genome-wide meta-analysis for serum calcium identifies significantly associated SNPs near the calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) gene.

Calcium has a pivotal role in biological functions, and serum calcium levels have been associated with numerous disorders of bone and mineral metabolism, as well as with cardiovascular mortality. Here we report results from a genome-wide association study of serum calcium, integrating data from four independent cohorts including a total of 12,865 individuals of European and Indian Asian descent. Our meta-analysis shows that serum calcium is associated with SNPs in or near the calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) gene on 3q13. The top hit with a p-value of 6.3 x 10(-37) is rs1801725, a missense variant, explaining 1.26% of the variance in serum calcium. This SNP had the strongest association in individuals of European descent, while for individuals of Indian Asian descent the top hit was rs17251221 (p = 1.1 x 10(-21)), a SNP in strong linkage disequilibrium with rs1801725. The strongest locus in CASR was shown to replicate in an independent Icelandic cohort of 4,126 individuals (p = 1.02 x 10(-4)). This genome-wide meta-analysis shows that common CASR variants modulate serum calcium levels in the adult general population, which confirms previous results in some candidate gene studies of the CASR locus. This study highlights the key role of CASR in calcium regulation.

Analysis of the role of mobility-lifetime products in the performance of amorphous silicon p-i-n solar cells

An analytical model of an amorphous silicon p-i-n solar cell is presented to describe its photovoltaic behavior under short-circuit conditions. It has been developed from the analysis of numerical simulation results. These results reproduce the experimental illumination dependence of short-circuit resistance, which is the reciprocal slope of the I(V) curve at the short-circuit point. The recombination rate profiles show that recombination in the regions of charged defects near the p-i and i-n interfaces should not be overlooked. Based on the interpretation of the numerical solutions, we deduce analytical expressions for the recombination current and short-circuit resistance. These expressions are given as a function of an effective ¿¿ product, which depends on the intensity of illumination. We also study the effect of surface recombination with simple expressions that describe its influence on current loss and short-circuit resistance.

Using numerical classification of profiles based on Vis-NIR spectra to distinguish soils from the Piracicaba Region, Brazil

Considering that information from soil reflectance spectra is underutilized in soil classification, this paper aimed to evaluate the relationship of soil physical, chemical properties and their spectra, to identify spectral patterns for soil classes, evaluate the use of numerical classification of profiles combined with spectral data for soil classification. We studied 20 soil profiles from the municipality of Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, which were morphologically described and classified up to the 3rd category level of the Brazilian Soil Classification System (SiBCS). Subsequently, soil samples were collected from pedogenetic horizons and subjected to soil particle size and chemical analyses. Their Vis-NIR spectra were measured, followed by principal component analysis. Pearson's linear correlation coefficients were determined among the four principal components and the following soil properties: pH, organic matter, P, K, Ca, Mg, Al, CEC, base saturation, and Al saturation. We also carried out interpretation of the first three principal components and their relationships with soil classes defined by SiBCS. In addition, numerical classification of the profiles based on the OSACA algorithm was performed using spectral data as a basis. We determined the Normalized Mutual Information (NMI) and Uncertainty Coefficient (U). These coefficients represent the similarity between the numerical classification and the soil classes from SiBCS. Pearson's correlation coefficients were significant for the principal components when compared to sand, clay, Al content and soil color. Visual analysis of the principal component scores showed differences in the spectral behavior of the soil classes, mainly among Argissolos and the others soils. The NMI and U similarity coefficients showed values of 0.74 and 0.64, respectively, suggesting good similarity between the numerical and SiBCS classes. For example, numerical classification correctly distinguished Argissolos from Latossolos and Nitossolos. However, this mathematical technique was not able to distinguish Latossolos from Nitossolos Vermelho férricos, but the Cambissolos were well differentiated from other soil classes. The numerical technique proved to be effective and applicable to the soil classification process.

Bacterial bioassay for rapid and accurate analysis of arsenic in highly variable groundwater samples.

In this study, we report the first ever large-scale environmental validation of a microbial reporter-based test to measure arsenic concentrations in natural water resources. A bioluminescence-producing arsenic-inducible bacterium based on Escherichia coli was used as the reporter organism. Specific protocols were developed with the goal to avoid the negative influence of iron in groundwater on arsenic availability to the bioreporter cells. A total of 194 groundwater samples were collected in the Red River and Mekong River Delta regions of Vietnam and were analyzed both by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) and by the arsenic bioreporter protocol. The bacterial cells performed well at and above arsenic concentrations in groundwater of 7 microg/L, with an almost linearly proportional increase of the bioluminescence signal between 10 and 100 microg As/L (r2 = 0.997). Comparisons between AAS and arsenic bioreporter determinations gave an overall average of 8.0% false negative and 2.4% false positive identifications for the bioreporter prediction at the WHO recommended acceptable arsenic concentration of 10 microg/L, which is far betterthan the performance of chemical field test kits. Because of the ease of the measurement protocol and the low application cost, the microbiological arsenic test has a great potential in large screening campaigns in Asia and in other areas suffering from arsenic pollution in groundwater resources.

Schizophrenia and complications of pregnancy and labor: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between complications of pregnancy and delivery and schizophrenia, but none have had sufficient power to examine specific complications that, individually, are of low prevalence. We, therefore, performed an individual patient meta-analysis using the raw data from case control studies that used the Lewis-Murray scale. Data were obtained from 12 studies on 700 schizophrenia subjects and 835 controls. There were significant associations between schizophrenia and premature rupture of membranes, gestational age shorter than 37 weeks, and use of resuscitation or incubator. There were associations of borderline significance between schizophrenia and birthweight lower than 2,500 g and forceps delivery. There was no significant interaction between these complications and sex. We conclude that some abnormalities of pregnancy and delivery may be associated with development of schizophrenia. The pathophysiology may involve hypoxia and so future studies should focus on the accurate measurement of this exposure.

Flow structures at an idealized bifurcation : a numerical experiment

River bifurcations are key nodes within braided river systems controlling the flow and sediment partitioning and therefore the dynamics of the river braiding process. Recent research has shown that certain geometrical configurations induce instabilities that lead to downstream mid-channel bar formation and the formation of bifurcations. However, we currently have a poor understanding of the flow division process within bifurcations and the flow dynamics in the downstream bifurcates, both of which are needed to understand bifurcation stability. This paper presents results of a numerical sensitivity experiment undertaken using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with the purpose of understanding the flow dynamics of a series of idealized bifurcations. A geometric sensitivity analysis is undertaken for a range of channel slopes (0.005 to 0.03), bifurcation angles (22 degrees to 42 degrees) and a restricted set of inflow conditions based upon simulating flow through meander bends with different curvature on the flow field dynamics through the bifurcation. The results demonstrate that the overall slope of the bifurcation affects the velocity of flow through the bifurcation and when slope asymmetry is introduced, the flow structures in the bifurcation are modified. In terms of bifurcation evolution the most important observation appears to be that once slope asymmetry is greater than 0.2 the flow within the steep bifurcate shows potential instability and the potential for alternate channel bar formation. Bifurcation angle also defines the flow structures within the bifurcation with an increase in bifurcation angle increasing the flow velocity down both bifurcates. However, redistributive effects of secondary circulation caused by upstream curvature can very easily counter the effects of local bifurcation characteristics. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impact of job insecurity on sexual desire: an exploratory analysis.

To explore, for the first time, the impact of job insecurity on sexual desire. Cross-sectional analysis of a nationally representative sample of 7247 individuals aged 20-64 years working as full or part-time employees in Switzerland. The logistic regression analysis showed that workers aged 20-49 years perceiving high levels of job insecurity are exposed to a significantly higher risk of decrease of sexual desire compared to the reference group. The risk is 53% higher among men (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.16-2.01) and 47% for woman (OR 1.47; 1.13-1.91). No increased risk was found for employees aged 50-64 years old. An increasing fear of job loss is associated with a deterioration in sexual desire. These first preliminary findings should promote further epidemiological and clinical prospective studies on the impact of job insecurity on intimate relationships and sexual dysfunction.

Bilateral Sequential NAION: A Comparison of Visual Outcomes in Fellow Eyes Using Quantitative Analysis of Goldmann Visual Fields

Purpose: Previous studies of the visual outcome in bilateral non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) have yielded conflicting results, specifically regarding congruity between fellow eyes. Prior studies have used measures of acuity and computerized perimetry but none has compared Goldmann visual field outcomes between fellow eyes. In order to better define the concordance of visual loss in this condition, we reviewed our cases of bilateral sequential NAION, including measures of visual acuity, pupillary function and both pattern and severity of visual field loss.Methods: We performed a retrospective chart review of 102 patients with a diagnosis of bilateral sequential NAION. Of the 102 patients, 86 were included in the study for analysis of final visual outcome between the affected eyes. Visual function was assessed using visual acuity, Goldmann visual fields, color vision and RAPD. A quantitative total visual field score and score per quadrant was analyzed for each eye using the numerical Goldmann visual field scoring method previously described by Esterman and colleagues. Based upon these scores, we calculated the total deviation and pattern deviation between fellow eyes and between eyes of different patients. Statistical significance was determined using nonparametric tests.Results: A statistically significant correlation was found between fellow eyes for multiple parameters, including logMAR visual acuity (P = 0.0101), global visual field (P = 0.0001), superior visual field (P = 0.0001), and inferior visual field (P = 0.0001). In addition, the mean deviation of both total (P = 0.0000000007) and pattern (P = 0.000000004) deviation analyses was significantly less between fellow eyes ("intra"-eyes) than between eyes of different patients ("inter"-eyes).Conclusions: Visual function between fellow eyes showed a fair to moderate correlation that was statistically significant. The pattern of vision loss was also more similar in fellow eyes than between eyes of different patients. These results may help allow better prediction of visual outcome for the second eye in patients with NAION. These findings may also be useful for evaluating efficacy of therapeutic interventions.

Importance of polyethylene thickness in total shoulder arthroplasty: a finite element analysis.

BACKGROUND: Articular surfaces reconstruction is essential in total shoulder arthroplasty. Because of the limited glenoid bone support, thin glenoid component could improve anatomical reconstruction, but adverse mechanical effects might appear. METHODS: With a numerical musculoskeletal shoulder model, we analysed and compared three values of thickness of a typical all-polyethylene glenoid component: 2, 4 (reference) and 6mm. A loaded movement of abduction in the scapular plane was simulated. We evaluated the humeral head translation, the muscle moment arms, the joint force, the articular contact pattern, and the polyethylene and cement stress. Findings Decreasing polyethylene thickness from 6 to 2mm slightly increased humeral head translation and muscle moment arms. This induced a small decreased of the joint reaction force, but important increase of stress within the polyethylene and the cement mantel. Interpretation The reference thickness of 4mm seems a good compromise to avoid stress concentration and joint stuffing.