A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th-90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40-111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69-215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108-427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be robust through validation with an independent dataset. The model is appropriate for predicting radon level exposure of the Swiss population in epidemiological research. Nevertheless, some exposure misclassification and regression to the mean is unavoidable and should be taken into account in future applications of the model.

Advantages and Applications of Transforming Empirical Model Input Space with Dimensional Models

Model-based calibration of steady-state engine operation is commonly performed with highly parameterized empirical models that are accurate but not very robust, particularly when predicting highly nonlinear responses such as diesel smoke emissions. To address this problem, and to boost the accuracy of more robust non-parametric methods to the same level, GT-Power was used to transform the empirical model input space into multiple input spaces that simplified the input-output relationship and improved the accuracy and robustness of smoke predictions made by three commonly used empirical modeling methods: Multivariate Regression, Neural Networks and the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The availability of multiple input spaces allowed the development of two committee techniques: a 'Simple Committee' technique that used averaged predictions from a set of 10 pre-selected input spaces chosen by the training data and the "Minimum Variance Committee" technique where the input spaces for each prediction were chosen on the basis of disagreement between the three modeling methods. This latter technique equalized the performance of the three modeling methods. The successively increasing improvements resulting from the use of a single best transformed input space (Best Combination Technique), Simple Committee Technique and Minimum Variance Committee Technique were verified with hypothesis testing. The transformed input spaces were also shown to improve outlier detection and to improve k-Nearest Neighbor performance when predicting dynamic emissions with steady-state training data. An unexpected finding was that the benefits of input space transformation were unaffected by changes in the hardware or the calibration of the underlying GT-Power model.

Design-based stereology to quantify structural properties of artificial and natural snow using thin sections

The quantification of the structural properties of snow is traditionally based on model-based stereology. Model-based stereology requires assumptions about the shape of the investigated structure. Here, we show how the density, specific surface area, and grain boundary area can be measured using a design-based method, where no assumptions about structural properties are necessary. The stereological results were also compared to X-ray tomography to control the accuracy of the method. The specific surface area calculated with the stereological method was 19.8 ± 12.3% smaller than with X-ray tomography. For the density, the stereological method gave results that were 11.7 ± 12.1% larger than X-ray tomography. The statistical analysis of the estimates confirmed that the stereological method and the sampling used are accurate. This stereological method was successfully tested on artificially produced ice beads but also on several snow types. Combining stereology and polarisation microscopy provides a good estimate of grain boundary areas in ice beads and in natural snow, with some limitatio

Climate warming and vegetation response after Heinrich event 1 (16 700–16 000 cal yr BP) in Europe south of the Alps

Chironomids preserved in a sediment core from Lago di Origlio (416 m a.s.l.), a lake in the foreland of the Southern Swiss Alps, allowed quantitative reconstruction of Late Glacial and Early Holocene summer temperatures using a combined Swiss–Norwegian temperature inference model based on chironomid assemblages from 274 lakes. We reconstruct July air temperatures of ca. 10 °C between 17 300 and 16 000 cal yr BP, a rather abrupt warming to ca. 12.0 °C at ca. 16 500–16 000 cal yr BP, and a strong temperature increase at the transition to the Bølling/Allerød interstadial with average temperatures of about 14 °C. During the Younger Dryas and earliest Holocene similar temperatures are reconstructed as for the interstadial. The rather abrupt warming at 16 500–16 000 cal yr BP is consistent with sea-surface temperature as well as speleothem records, which indicate a warming after the end of Heinrich event 1 (sensu stricto) and before the Bølling/Allerød interstadial in southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Pollen records from Origlio and other sites in southern Switzerland and northern Italy indicate an early reforestation of the lowlands 2000–1500 yr prior to the large-scale afforestation of Central Europe at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød period at ca. 14 700–14 600 cal yr BP. Our results suggest that these early afforestation processes in the formerly glaciated areas of northern Italy and southern Switzerland have been promoted by increasing temperatures.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

A MULTILEVEL MODEL TO ADDRESS BATCH EFFECTS IN COPY NUMBER ESTIMATION USING SNP ARRAYS

Submicroscopic changes in chromosomal DNA copy number dosage are common and have been implicated in many heritable diseases and cancers. Recent high-throughput technologies have a resolution that permits the detection of segmental changes in DNA copy number that span thousands of basepairs across the genome. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may simultaneously screen for copy number-phenotype and SNP-phenotype associations as part of the analytic strategy. However, genome-wide array analyses are particularly susceptible to batch effects as the logistics of preparing DNA and processing thousands of arrays often involves multiple laboratories and technicians, or changes over calendar time to the reagents and laboratory equipment. Failure to adjust for batch effects can lead to incorrect inference and requires inefficient post-hoc quality control procedures that exclude regions that are associated with batch. Our work extends previous model-based approaches for copy number estimation by explicitly modeling batch effects and using shrinkage to improve locus-specific estimates of copy number uncertainty. Key features of this approach include the use of diallelic genotype calls from experimental data to estimate batch- and locus-specific parameters of background and signal without the requirement of training data. We illustrate these ideas using a study of bipolar disease and a study of chromosome 21 trisomy. The former has batch effects that dominate much of the observed variation in quantile-normalized intensities, while the latter illustrates the robustness of our approach to datasets where as many as 25% of the samples have altered copy number. Locus-specific estimates of copy number can be plotted on the copy-number scale to investigate mosaicism and guide the choice of appropriate downstream approaches for smoothing the copy number as a function of physical position. The software is open source and implemented in the R package CRLMM available at Bioconductor (http:www.bioconductor.org).

A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Model to describe the mode I fracture of steel fiber reinforced ultra-high performance concrete

Ultra-high performance fiber reinforced concrete (UHPFRC) has arisen from the implementation of a variety of concrete engineering and materials science concepts developed over the last century. This material offers superior strength, serviceability, and durability over its conventional counterparts. One of the most important differences for UHPFRC over other concrete materials is its ability to resist fracture through the use of randomly dispersed discontinuous fibers and improvements to the fiber-matrix bond. Of particular interest is the materials ability to achieve higher loads after first crack, as well as its high fracture toughness. In this research, a study of the fracture behavior of UHPFRC with steel fibers was conducted to look at the effect of several parameters related to the fracture behavior and to develop a fracture model based on a non-linear curve fit of the data. To determine this, a series of three-point bending tests were performed on various single edge notched prisms (SENPs). Compression tests were also performed for quality assurance. Testing was conducted on specimens of different cross-sections, span/depth (S/D) ratios, curing regimes, ages, and fiber contents. By comparing the results from prisms of different sizes this study examines the weakening mechanism due to the size effect. Furthermore, by employing the concept of fracture energy it was possible to obtain a comparison of the fracture toughness and ductility. The model was determined based on a fit to P-w fracture curves, which was cross referenced for comparability to the results. Once obtained the model was then compared to the models proposed by the AFGC in the 2003 and to the ACI 544 model for conventional fiber reinforced concretes.

Ultraviolet digital imaging of volcanic plumes : implementation and application to magmatic processes at basaltic volcanoes

Magmatic volatiles play a crucial role in volcanism, from magma production at depth to generation of seismic phenomena to control of eruption style. Accordingly, many models of volcano dynamics rely heavily on behavior of such volatiles. Yet measurements of emission rates of volcanic gases have historically been limited, which has restricted model verification to processes on the order of days or longer. UV cameras are a recent advancement in the field of remote sensing of volcanic SO2 emissions. They offer enhanced temporal and spatial resolution over previous measurement techniques, but need development before they can be widely adopted and achieve the promise of integration with other geophysical datasets. Large datasets require a means by which to quickly and efficiently use imagery to calculate emission rates. We present a suite of programs designed to semi-automatically determine emission rates of SO2 from series of UV images. Extraction of high temporal resolution SO2 emission rates via this software facilitates comparison of gas data to geophysical data for the purposes of evaluating models of volcanic activity and has already proven useful at several volcanoes. Integrated UV camera and seismic measurements recorded in January 2009 at Fuego volcano, Guatemala, provide new insight into the system’s shallow conduit processes. High temporal resolution SO2 data reveal patterns of SO2 emission rate relative to explosions and seismic tremor that indicate tremor and degassing share a common source process. Progressive decreases in emission rate appear to represent inhibition of gas loss from magma as a result of rheological stiffening in the upper conduit. Measurements of emission rate from two closely-spaced vents, made possible by the high spatial resolution of the camera, help constrain this model. UV camera measurements at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, in May of 2010 captured two occurrences of lava filling and draining within the summit vent. Accompanying high lava stands were diminished SO2 emission rates, decreased seismic and infrasonic tremor, minor deflation, and slowed lava lake surface velocity. Incorporation of UV camera data into the multi-parameter dataset gives credence to the likelihood of shallow gas accumulation as the cause of such events.

Adenovirus-mediated transforming growth factor-beta ameliorates ischemic necrosis of epigastric skin flaps in a rat model

BACKGROUND: Gene therapy has been recently introduced as a novel approach to treat ischemic tissues by using the angiogenic potential of certain growth factors. We investigated the effect of adenovirus-mediated gene therapy with transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) delivered into the subdermal space to treat ischemically challenged epigastric skin flaps in a rat model. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A pilot study was conducted in a group of 5 animals pretreated with Ad-GFP and expression of green fluorescent protein in the skin flap sections was demonstrated under fluorescence microscopy at 2, 4, and 7 days after the treatment, indicating a successful transfection of the skin flaps following subdermal gene therapy. Next, 30 male Sprague Dawley rats were divided into 3 groups of 10 rats each. An epigastric skin flap model, based solely on the right inferior epigastric vessels, was used as the model in this study. Rats received subdermal injections of adenovirus encoding TGF-beta (Ad-TGF-beta) or green fluorescent protein (Ad-GFP) as treatment control. The third group (n = 10) received saline and served as a control group. A flap measuring 8 x 8 cm was outlined on the abdominal skin extending from the xiphoid process proximally and the pubic region distally, to the anterior axillary lines bilaterally. Just prior to flap elevation, the injections were given subdermally in the left upper corner of the flap. The flap was then sutured back to its bed. Flap viability was evaluated seven days after the initial operation. Digital images of the epigastric flaps were taken and areas of necrotic zones relative to total flap surface area were measured and expressed as percentages by using a software program. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in mean percent surviving area between the Ad-TGF-beta group and the two other control groups (P < 0.05). (Ad-TGF-beta: 90.3 +/- 4.0% versus Ad-GFP: 82.2 +/- 8.7% and saline group: 82.6 +/- 4.3%.) CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the authors were able to demonstrate that adenovirus-mediated gene therapy using TGF-beta ameliorated ischemic necrosis in an epigastric skin flap model, as confirmed by significant reduction in the necrotic zones of the flap. The results of this study raise the possibility of using adenovirus-mediated TGF-beta gene therapy to promote perfusion in random portion of skin flaps, especially in high-risk patients.

A system for 3-D reconstruction of a patient-specific surface model from calibrated X-ray images

This paper presents a system for 3-D reconstruction of a patient-specific surface model from calibrated X-ray images. Our system requires two X-ray images of a patient with one acquired from the anterior-posterior direction and the other from the axial direction. A custom-designed cage is utilized in our system to calibrate both images. Starting from bone contours that are interactively identified from the X-ray images, our system constructs a patient-specific surface model of the proximal femur based on a statistical model based 2D/3D reconstruction algorithm. In this paper, we present the design and validation of the system with 25 bones. An average reconstruction error of 0.95 mm was observed.

Social Learning Processes in Swiss Soil Protection? The 'From Farmer - To Farmer' Project

Social learning approaches have become a prominent focus in studies related to sustainable agriculture. In order to better understand the potential of social learning for more sustainable development, the present study assessed the processes, effects and facilitating elements of interaction related to social learning in the context of Swiss soil protection and the innovative ‘From Farmer - To Farmer’ project. The study reveals that social learning contributes to fundamental transformations of patterns of interactions. However, the study also demonstrates that a learning-oriented understanding of sustainable development implies including analysis of the institutional environments in which the organizations of the individual representatives of face-to-face-based social learning processes are operating. This has shown to be a decisive element when face-to-face-based learning processes of the organisations’ representatives are translated into organisational learning. Moreover, the study revealed that this was achieved not directly through formalisation of new lines of institutionalised cooperation but by establishing links in a ‘boundary space’ trying out new forms of collaboration, aiming at social learning and co-production of knowledge. It is argued that further research on social learning processes should give greater emphasis to this intermediary level of ‘boundary spaces’.