975 resultados para markov chains monte carlo methods


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The current standard treatment for head and neck cancer at our institution uses intensity-modulated x-ray therapy (IMRT), which improves target coverage and sparing of critical structures by delivering complex fluence patterns from a variety of beam directions to conform dose distributions to the shape of the target volume. The standard treatment for breast patients is field-in-field forward-planned IMRT, with initial tangential fields and additional reduced-weight tangents with blocking to minimize hot spots. For these treatment sites, the addition of electrons has the potential of improving target coverage and sparing of critical structures due to rapid dose falloff with depth and reduced exit dose. In this work, the use of mixed-beam therapy (MBT), i.e., combined intensity-modulated electron and x-ray beams using the x-ray multi-leaf collimator (MLC), was explored. The hypothesis of this study was that addition of intensity-modulated electron beams to existing clinical IMRT plans would produce MBT plans that were superior to the original IMRT plans for at least 50% of selected head and neck and 50% of breast cases. Dose calculations for electron beams collimated by the MLC were performed with Monte Carlo methods. An automation system was created to facilitate communication between the dose calculation engine and the treatment planning system. Energy and intensity modulation of the electron beams was accomplished by dividing the electron beams into 2x2-cm2 beamlets, which were then beam-weight optimized along with intensity-modulated x-ray beams. Treatment plans were optimized to obtain equivalent target dose coverage, and then compared with the original treatment plans. MBT treatment plans were evaluated by participating physicians with respect to target coverage, normal structure dose, and overall plan quality in comparison with original clinical plans. The physician evaluations did not support the hypothesis for either site, with MBT selected as superior in 1 out of the 15 head and neck cases (p=1) and 6 out of 18 breast cases (p=0.95). While MBT was not shown to be superior to IMRT, reductions were observed in doses to critical structures distal to the target along the electron beam direction and to non-target tissues, at the expense of target coverage and dose homogeneity. ^

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A fully 3D iterative image reconstruction algorithm has been developed for high-resolution PET cameras composed of pixelated scintillator crystal arrays and rotating planar detectors, based on the ordered subsets approach. The associated system matrix is precalculated with Monte Carlo methods that incorporate physical effects not included in analytical models, such as positron range effects and interaction of the incident gammas with the scintillator material. Custom Monte Carlo methodologies have been developed and optimized for modelling of system matrices for fast iterative image reconstruction adapted to specific scanner geometries, without redundant calculations. According to the methodology proposed here, only one-eighth of the voxels within two central transaxial slices need to be modelled in detail. The rest of the system matrix elements can be obtained with the aid of axial symmetries and redundancies, as well as in-plane symmetries within transaxial slices. Sparse matrix techniques for the non-zero system matrix elements are employed, allowing for fast execution of the image reconstruction process. This 3D image reconstruction scheme has been compared in terms of image quality to a 2D fast implementation of the OSEM algorithm combined with Fourier rebinning approaches. This work confirms the superiority of fully 3D OSEM in terms of spatial resolution, contrast recovery and noise reduction as compared to conventional 2D approaches based on rebinning schemes. At the same time it demonstrates that fully 3D methodologies can be efficiently applied to the image reconstruction problem for high-resolution rotational PET cameras by applying accurate pre-calculated system models and taking advantage of the system's symmetries.

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With the Bonner spheres spectrometer neutron spectrum is obtained through an unfolding procedure. Monte Carlo methods, Regularization, Parametrization, Least-squares, and Maximum Entropy are some of the techniques utilized for unfolding. In the last decade methods based on Artificial Intelligence Technology have been used. Approaches based on Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks have been developed in order to overcome the drawbacks of previous techniques. Nevertheless the advantages of Artificial Neural Networks still it has some drawbacks mainly in the design process of the network, vg the optimum selection of the architectural and learning ANN parameters. In recent years the use of hybrid technologies, combining Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms, has been utilized to. In this work, several ANN topologies were trained and tested using Artificial Neural Networks and Genetically Evolved Artificial Neural Networks in the aim to unfold neutron spectra using the count rates of a Bonner sphere spectrometer. Here, a comparative study of both procedures has been carried out.

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The neutronics hall of the Nuclear Engineering Department at the Polytechnical University of Madrid has been characterized. The neutron spectra and the ambient dose equivalent produced by an 241AmBe source were measured at various source-to-detector distances on the new bench. Using Monte Carlo methods a detailed model of the neutronics hall was designed, and neutron spectra and the ambient dose equivalent were calculated at the same locations where measurements were carried out. A good agreement between measured and calculated values was found.

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A passive neutron area monitor has been designed using Monte Carlo methods; the monitor is a polyethylene cylinder with pairs of thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD600 and TLD700) as thermal neutron detector. The monitor was calibrated with a bare and a thermalzed 241AmBe neutron sources and its performance was evaluated measuring the ambient dose equivalent due to photoneutrons produced by a 15 MV linear accelerator for radiotherapy and the neutrons in the output of a TRIGA Mark III radial beam port.

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A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

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No último século, houve grande avanço no entendimento das interações das radiações com a matéria. Essa compreensão se faz necessária para diversas aplicações, entre elas o uso de raios X no diagnóstico por imagens. Neste caso, imagens são formadas pelo contraste resultante da diferença na atenuação dos raios X pelos diferentes tecidos do corpo. Entretanto, algumas das interações dos raios X com a matéria podem levar à redução da qualidade destas imagens, como é o caso dos fenômenos de espalhamento. Muitas abordagens foram propostas para estimar a distribuição espectral de fótons espalhados por uma barreira, ou seja, como no caso de um feixe de campo largo, ao atingir um plano detector, tais como modelos que utilizam métodos de Monte Carlo e modelos que utilizam aproximações analíticas. Supondo-se um espectro de um feixe primário que não interage com nenhum objeto após sua emissão pelo tubo de raios X, este espectro é, essencialmente representado pelos modelos propostos anteriormente. Contudo, considerando-se um feixe largo de radiação X, interagindo com um objeto, a radiação a ser detectada por um espectrômetro, passa a ser composta pelo feixe primário, atenuado pelo material adicionado, e uma fração de radiação espalhada. A soma destas duas contribuições passa a compor o feixe resultante. Esta soma do feixe primário atenuado, com o feixe de radiação espalhada, é o que se mede em um detector real na condição de feixe largo. O modelo proposto neste trabalho visa calcular o espectro de um tubo de raios X, em situação de feixe largo, o mais fidedigno possível ao que se medem em condições reais. Neste trabalho se propõe a discretização do volume de interação em pequenos elementos de volume, nos quais se calcula o espalhamento Compton, fazendo uso de um espectro de fótons gerado pelo Modelo de TBC, a equação de Klein-Nishina e considerações geométricas. Por fim, o espectro de fótons espalhados em cada elemento de volume é somado ao espalhamento dos demais elementos de volume, resultando no espectro total espalhado. O modelo proposto foi implementado em ambiente computacional MATLAB® e comparado com medições experimentais para sua validação. O modelo proposto foi capaz de produzir espectros espalhados em diferentes condições, apresentando boa conformidade com os valores medidos, tanto em termos quantitativos, nas quais a diferença entre kerma no ar calculado e kerma no ar medido é menor que 10%, quanto qualitativos, com fatores de mérito superiores a 90%.

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We perform a detailed modelling of the post-outburst surface emission of the low magnetic field magnetar SGR 0418+5729. The dipolar magnetic field of this source, B=6×1012G estimated from its spin-down rate, is in the observed range of magnetic fields for normal pulsars. The source is further characterized by a high pulse fraction and a single-peak profile. Using synthetic temperature distribution profiles, and fully accounting for the general-relativistic effects of light deflection and gravitational redshift, we generate synthetic X-ray spectra and pulse profiles that we fit to the observations. We find that asymmetric and symmetric surface temperature distributions can reproduce equally well the observed pulse profiles and spectra of SGR 0418. None the less, the modelling allows us to place constraints on the system geometry (i.e. the angles ψ and ξ that the rotation axis makes with the line of sight and the dipolar axis, respectively), as well as on the spot size and temperature contrast on the neutron star surface. After performing an analysis iterating between the pulse profile and spectra, as done in similar previous works, we further employed, for the first time in this context, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo approach to extract constraints on the model parameters from the pulse profiles and spectra, simultaneously. We find that, to reproduce the observed spectrum and flux modulation: (a) the angles must be restricted to 65° ≲ ψ + ξ ≲ 125° or 235° ≲ ψ + ξ ≲ 295°; (b) the temperature contrast between the poles and the equator must be at least a factor of ∼6, and (c) the size of the hottest region ranges between 0.2 and 0.7 km (including uncertainties on the source distance). Lastly, we interpret our findings within the context of internal and external heating models.

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mgof computes goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of a discrete (categorical, multinomial) variable. The default is to perform classical large sample chi-squared approximation tests based on Pearson's X2 statistic and the log likelihood ratio (G2) statistic or a statistic from the Cressie-Read family. Alternatively, mgof computes exact tests using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided. The moremata package, also available from SSC, is required.

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A new Stata command called -mgof- is introduced. The command is used to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. Apart from classic large sample $\chi^2$-approximation tests based on Pearson's $X^2$, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read 1984), large sample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples are supported. The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in -svy:tabulate-. The exact tests are computed using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. An exact Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided.

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The FANOVA (or “Sobol’-Hoeffding”) decomposition of multivariate functions has been used for high-dimensional model representation and global sensitivity analysis. When the objective function f has no simple analytic form and is costly to evaluate, computing FANOVA terms may be unaffordable due to numerical integration costs. Several approximate approaches relying on Gaussian random field (GRF) models have been proposed to alleviate these costs, where f is substituted by a (kriging) predictor or by conditional simulations. Here we focus on FANOVA decompositions of GRF sample paths, and we notably introduce an associated kernel decomposition into 4 d 4d terms called KANOVA. An interpretation in terms of tensor product projections is obtained, and it is shown that projected kernels control both the sparsity of GRF sample paths and the dependence structure between FANOVA effects. Applications on simulated data show the relevance of the approach for designing new classes of covariance kernels dedicated to high-dimensional kriging.

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An important aspect in manufacturing design is the distribution of geometrical tolerances so that an assembly functions with given probability, while minimising the manufacturing cost. This requires a complex search over a multidimensional domain, much of which leads to infeasible solutions and which can have many local minima. As well, Monte-Carlo methods are often required to determine the probability that the assembly functions as designed. This paper describes a genetic algorithm for carrying out this search and successfully applies it to two specific mechanical designs, enabling comparisons of a new statistical tolerancing design method with existing methods. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

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Euastacus crayfish are endemic to freshwater ecosystems of the eastern coast of Australia. While recent evolutionary studies have focused on a few of these species, here we provide a comprehensive phylogenetic estimate of relationships among the species within the genus. We sequenced three mitochondrial gene regions (COI, 16S, and 12S) and one nuclear region (28S) from 40 species of the genus Euastacus, as well as one undescribed species. Using these data, we estimated the phylogenetic relationships within the genus using maximum-likelihood, parsimony, and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Using Bayes factors to test different model hypotheses, we found that the best phylogeny supports monophyletic groupings of all but two recognized species and suggests a widespread ancestor that diverged by vicariance. We also show that Eitastacus and Astacopsis are most likely monophyletic sister genera. We use the resulting phylogeny as a framework to test biogeographic hypotheses relating to the diversification of the genus. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.