Recent Glacier Retreat Exceeds Internal Variability

Glacier fluctuations exclusively due to internal variations in the climate system are simulated using downscaled integrations of the ECHAM4/OPYC coupled general circulation model (GCM). A process-based modeling approach using a mass balance model of intermediate complexity and a dynamic ice flow model considering simple shearing flow and sliding are applied. Multimillennia records of glacier length fluctuations for Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Rhonegletscher (Switzerland) are simulated using autoregressive processes determined by statistically downscaled GCM experiments. Return periods and probabilities of specific glacier length changes using GCM integrations excluding external forcings such as solar irradiation changes, volcanic, or anthropogenic effects are analyzed and compared to historical glacier length records. Preindustrial fluctuations of the glaciers as far as observed or reconstructed, including their advance during the “Little Ice Age,” can be explained by internal variability in the climate system as represented by a GCM. However, fluctuations comparable to the present-day glacier retreat exceed any variation simulated by the GCM control experiments and must be caused by external forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being a likely candidate.

Ice internal friction: Standard theoretical perspectives on friction codified, adapted for the unusual rheology of ice, and unified

Sea ice contains flaws including frictional contacts. We aim to describe quantitatively the mechanics of those contacts, providing local physics for geophysical models. With a focus on the internal friction of ice, we review standard micro-mechanical models of friction. The solid's deformation under normal load may be ductile or elastic. The shear failure of the contact may be by ductile flow, brittle fracture, or melting and hydrodynamic lubrication. Combinations of these give a total of six rheological models. When the material under study is ice, several of the rheological parameters in the standard models are not constant, but depend on the temperature of the bulk, on the normal stress under which samples are pressed together, or on the sliding velocity and acceleration. This has the effect of making the shear stress required for sliding dependent on sliding velocity, acceleration, and temperature. In some cases, it also perturbs the exponent in the normal-stress dependence of that shear stress away from the value that applies to most materials. We unify the models by a principle of maximum displacement for normal deformation, and of minimum stress for shear failure, reducing the controversy over the mechanism of internal friction in ice to the choice of values of four parameters in a single model. The four parameters represent, for a typical asperity contact, the sliding distance required to expel melt-water, the sliding distance required to break contact, the normal strain in the asperity, and the thickness of any ductile shear zone.

Realism and reality formats

The chapter focuses on the relationships between 'Reality TV' and other ‘realist’ forms and genres of television. This issue is connected to larger debates about ‘televisuality’, and the understanding of the distinctiveness of the medium. Television processes and worries over reality in all of its genres, so that realism becomes a particularly ambiguous term. One meaning focuses on the actual scenes, places and people are represented rather than imagined. A second meaning refers to television’s representation of recognisable and often contemporary experience. Another meaning of realism refers to the development of new and different forms to give access to the real. Furthermore, the establishment of category distinctions in television, such as between factual and fictional forms, or between drama and documentary, could be seen as increasingly problematic in contemporary television. Reality TV can thought of as the trying-out of forms and modes of address in one genre or form that are adopted from apparently different genres and forms, thus creating connection and distinction simultaneously. This chapter addresses these distinctions and ambiguities within Reality TV, using examples including One Born Every Minute and The Only Way is Essex.

Deficits in agency in schizophrenia, and additional deficits in body image, body schema, and internal timing, in passivity symptoms

Individuals with schizophrenia, particularly those with passivity symptoms, may not feel in control of their actions, believing them to be controlled by external agents. Cognitive operations that contribute to these symptoms may include abnormal processing in agency as well as body representations that deal with body schema and body image. However, these operations in schizophrenia are not fully understood, and the questions of general versus specific deficits in individuals with different symptom profiles remain unanswered. Using the projected-hand illusion (a digital video version of the rubber-hand illusion) with synchronous and asynchronous stroking (500 ms delay), and a hand laterality judgment task, we assessed sense of agency, body image, and body schema in 53 people with clinically stable schizophrenia (with a current, past, and no history of passivity symptoms) and 48 healthy controls. The results revealed a stable trait in schizophrenia with no difference between clinical subgroups (sense of agency) and some quantitative (specific) differences depending on the passivity symptom profile (body image and body schema). Specifically, a reduced sense of self-agency was a common feature of all clinical subgroups. However, subgroup comparisons showed that individuals with passivity symptoms (both current and past) had significantly greater deficits on tasks assessing body image and body schema, relative to the other groups. In addition, patients with current passivity symptoms failed to demonstrate the normal reduction in body illusion typically seen with a 500 ms delay in visual feedback (asynchronous condition), suggesting internal timing problems. Altogether, the results underscore self-abnormalities in schizophrenia, provide evidence for both trait abnormalities and state changes specific to passivity symptoms, and point to a role for internal timing deficits as a mechanistic explanation for external cues becoming a possible source of self-body input.

Privatisation and cross-border electricity trade: from internal market to European Supergrid?

he perspective European Supergrid would consist of an integrated power system network, where electricity demands from one country could be met by generation from another country. This paper makes use of a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyse the determinants for trading electricity across borders among 34 countries connected by the European Supergrid. The key question that this paper aims to address is the extent to which the privatisation of European electricity markets has brought about higher cross-border trade of electricity. The analysis makes use of distance, price ratios, gate closure times, size of peaks and aggregate demand as standard determinants. Controlling for other standard determinants, it is concluded that privatisation in most cases led to higher power exchange and that the benefits are more significant where privatisation measures have been in place for a longer period.

Internal equity financing and the performance of multinational subsidiaries in emerging economies

We examine the internal equity financing of the multinational subsidiary which retains and reinvests its own earnings. Internal equity financing is a type of firm-specific advantage (FSA) along with other traditional FSAs in innovation, research and development, brands and management skills. It also reflects subsidiary-level financial management decision-making. Here we test the contributions of internal equity financing and subsidiary-level financial management decision-making to subsidiary performance, using original survey data from British multinational subsidiaries in six emerging countries in the South East Asia region. Our first finding is that internal equity financing acts as an FSA to improve subsidiary performance. Our second finding is that over 90% of financing sources (including capital investment by the parent firms) in the British subsidiaries come from internal funding. Our third finding is that subsidiary-level financial management decision-making has a statistically significant positive impact on subsidiary performance. Our findings advance the theoretical, empirical and managerial analysis of subsidiary performance in emerging economies.

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

On the validity of single-parcel energetics to assess the importance of internal energy and compressibility effects in stratified fluids

It is often assumed on the basis of single-parcel energetics that compressible effects and conversions with internal energy are negligible whenever typical displacements of fluid parcels are small relative to the scale height of the fluid (defined as the ratio of the squared speed of sound over gravitational acceleration). This paper shows that the above approach is flawed, however, and that a correct assessment of compressible effects and internal energy conversions requires considering the energetics of at least two parcels, or more generally, of mass conserving parcel re-arrangements. As a consequence, it is shown that it is the adiabatic lapse rate and its derivative with respect to pressure, rather than the scale height, which controls the relative importance of compressible effects and internal energy conversions when considering the global energy budget of a stratied fluid. Only when mass conservation is properly accounted for is it possible to explain why available internal energy can account for up to 40 percent of the total available potential energy in the oceans. This is considerably larger than the prediction of single-parcel energetics, according to which this number should be no more than about 2 percent.