Advancements in the estimation of ice particle fall speeds using laboratory and field measurements

Accurate estimates for the fall speed of natural hydrometeors are vital if their evolution in clouds is to be understood quantitatively. In this study, laboratory measurements of the terminal velocity vt for a variety of ice particle models settling in viscous fluids, along with wind-tunnel and field measurements of ice particles settling in air, have been analyzed and compared to common methods of computing vt from the literature. It is observed that while these methods work well for a number of particle types, they fail for particles with open geometries, specifically those particles for which the area ratio Ar is small (Ar is defined as the area of the particle projected normal to the flow divided by the area of a circumscribing disc). In particular, the fall speeds of stellar and dendritic crystals, needles, open bullet rosettes, and low-density aggregates are all overestimated. These particle types are important in many cloud types: aggregates in particular often dominate snow precipitation at the ground and vertically pointing Doppler radar measurements. Based on the laboratory data, a simple modification to previous computational methods is proposed, based on the area ratio. This new method collapses the available drag data onto an approximately universal curve, and the resulting errors in the computed fall speeds relative to the tank data are less than 25% in all cases. Comparison with the (much more scattered) measurements of ice particles falling in air show strong support for this new method, with the area ratio bias apparently eliminated.

Sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk and the relationship with storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere during winter

Previous studies have shown that sea-ice in the Sea of Okhotsk can be affected by local storms; in turn, the resultant sea-ice changes can affect the downstream development of storm tracks in the Pacific and possibly dampen a pre-existing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal in late winter. In this paper, a storm tracking algorithm was applied to the six hourly horizontal winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1978(9) to 2007 and output from the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 forced by sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk. The life cycle response of storms to sea-ice anomalies is investigated using various aspects of storm activity—cyclone genesis, lysis, intensity and track density. Results show that, for enhanced positive sea-ice concentrations in the Sea of Okhotsk, there is a decrease in secondary cyclogenesis, a westward shift in cyclolysis and changes in the subtropical jet are seen in the North Pacific. In the Atlantic, a pattern resembling the negative phase of the NAO is observed. This pattern is confirmed by the AGCM ECHAM5 experiments driven with above normal sea-ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk

Observations of ice multiplication in a weakly convective cell embedded in supercooled mid-level stratus

Simultaneous observations of cloud microphysical properties were obtained by in-situ aircraft measurements and ground based Radar/Lidar. Widespread mid-level stratus cloud was present below a temperature inversion (~5 °C magnitude) at 3.6 km altitude. Localised convection (peak updraft 1.5 m s−1) was observed 20 km west of the Radar station. This was associated with convergence at 2.5 km altitude. The convection was unable to penetrate the inversion capping the mid-level stratus. The mid-level stratus cloud was vertically thin (~400 m), horizontally extensive (covering 100 s of km) and persisted for more than 24 h. The cloud consisted of supercooled water droplets and small concentrations of large (~1 mm) stellar/plate like ice which slowly precipitated out. This ice was nucleated at temperatures greater than −12.2 °C and less than −10.0 °C, (cloud top and cloud base temperatures, respectively). No ice seeding from above the cloud layer was observed. This ice was formed by primary nucleation, either through the entrainment of efficient ice nuclei from above/below cloud, or by the slow stochastic activation of immersion freezing ice nuclei contained within the supercooled drops. Above cloud top significant concentrations of sub-micron aerosol were observed and consisted of a mixture of sulphate and carbonaceous material, a potential source of ice nuclei. Particle number concentrations (in the size range 0.1

Evidence that ice forms primarily in supercooled liquid clouds at temperatures > -27C

Using 4 years of radar and lidar observations of layer clouds from the Chilbolton Observatory in the UK, we show that almost all (95%) ice particles formed at temperatures >-20°C appear to originate from supercooled liquid clouds. At colder temperatures, there is a monotonic decline in the fraction of liquid-topped ice clouds: 50% at -27°C, falling to zero at -37°C (where homogeneous freezing of water droplets occurs). This strongly suggests that deposition nucleation plays a relatively minor role in the initiation of ice in mid-level clouds. It also means that the initial growth of the ice particles occurs predominantly within a liquid cloud, a situation which promotes rapid production of precipitation via the Bergeron-Findeison mechanism.

The marginal benefit of diversification in commercial real estate portfolios

The number of properties to hold to achieve a well-diversified real estate property portfolio presents a puzzle, as the estimated number is considerably higher than that seen in actual portfolios. However, Statman (1987) argues that investors should only increase the number of holdings as long as the marginal benefits of diversification exceed their costs. Using this idea we find that the marginal benefits of diversification in real estate portfolios are so small that investors are probably rational in holding small portfolios, at least as far as the reduction in standard deviation is concerned.

A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: observations and projected changes

The Arctic has undergone substantial changes over the last few decades in various cryospheric and derivative systems and processes. Of these, the Arctic sea ice regime has seen some of the most rapid change and is one of the most visible markers of Arctic change outside the scientific community. This has drawn considerable attention not only from the natural sciences, but increasingly, from the political and commercial sectors as they begin to grapple with the problems and opportunities that are being presented. The possible impacts of past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice, especially as it relates to climatic response, are of particular interest and have been the subject of increasing research activity. A review of the current knowledge of the role of sea ice in the climate system is therefore timely. We present a review that examines both the current state of understanding, as regards the impacts of sea-ice loss observed to date, and climate model projections, to highlight hypothesised future changes and impacts on storm tracks and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Within the broad climate-system perspective, the topics of storminess and large-scale variability will be specifically considered. We then consider larger-scale impacts on the climatic system by reviewing studies that have focused on the interaction between sea-ice extent and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Finally, an overview of the representation of these topics in the literature in the context of IPCC climate projections is presented. While most agree on the direction of Arctic sea-ice change, the rates amongst the various projections vary greatly. Similarly, the response of storm tracks and climate variability are uncertain, exacerbated possibly by the influence of other factors. A variety of scientific papers on the relationship between sea-ice changes and atmospheric variability have brought to light important aspects of this complex topic. Examples are an overall reduction in the number of Arctic winter storms, a northward shift of mid-latitude winter storms in the Pacific and a delayed negative NAO-like response in autumn/winter to a reduced Arctic sea-ice cover (at least in some months). This review paper discusses this research and the disagreements, bringing about a fresh perspective on this issue.

A comparison among four different retrieval methods for ice-cloud properties using data from CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS

The A-Train constellation of satellites provides a new capability to measure vertical cloud profiles that leads to more detailed information on ice-cloud microphysical properties than has been possible up to now. A variational radar–lidar ice-cloud retrieval algorithm (VarCloud) takes advantage of the complementary nature of the CloudSat radar and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar to provide a seamless retrieval of ice water content, effective radius, and extinction coefficient from the thinnest cirrus (seen only by the lidar) to the thickest ice cloud (penetrated only by the radar). In this paper, several versions of the VarCloud retrieval are compared with the CloudSat standard ice-only retrieval of ice water content, two empirical formulas that derive ice water content from radar reflectivity and temperature, and retrievals of vertically integrated properties from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiometer. The retrieved variables typically agree to within a factor of 2, on average, and most of the differences can be explained by the different microphysical assumptions. For example, the ice water content comparison illustrates the sensitivity of the retrievals to assumed ice particle shape. If ice particles are modeled as oblate spheroids rather than spheres for radar scattering then the retrieved ice water content is reduced by on average 50% in clouds with a reflectivity factor larger than 0 dBZ. VarCloud retrieves optical depths that are on average a factor-of-2 lower than those from MODIS, which can be explained by the different assumptions on particle mass and area; if VarCloud mimics the MODIS assumptions then better agreement is found in effective radius and optical depth is overestimated. MODIS predicts the mean vertically integrated ice water content to be around a factor-of-3 lower than that from VarCloud for the same retrievals, however, because the MODIS algorithm assumes that its retrieved effective radius (which is mostly representative of cloud top) is constant throughout the depth of the cloud. These comparisons highlight the need to refine microphysical assumptions in all retrieval algorithms and also for future studies to compare not only the mean values but also the full probability density function.

Assessment of CloudSat reflectivity measurements and ice cloud properties using ground-based and airborne cloud radar observations

A quantitative assessment of Cloudsat reflectivities and basic ice cloud properties (cloud base, top, and thickness) is conducted in the present study from both airborne and ground-based observations. Airborne observations allow direct comparisons on a limited number of ocean backscatter and cloud samples, whereas the ground-based observations allow statistical comparisons on much longer time series but with some additional assumptions. Direct comparisons of the ocean backscatter and ice cloud reflectivities measured by an airborne cloud radar and Cloudsat during two field experiments indicate that, on average, Cloudsat measures ocean backscatter 0.4 dB higher and ice cloud reflectivities 1 dB higher than the airborne cloud radar. Five ground-based sites have also been used for a statistical evaluation of the Cloudsat reflectivities and basic cloud properties. From these comparisons, it is found that the weighted-mean difference ZCloudsat − ZGround ranges from −0.4 to +0.3 dB when a ±1-h time lag around the Cloudsat overpass is considered. Given the fact that the airborne and ground-based radar calibration accuracy is about 1 dB, it is concluded that the reflectivities of the spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based radars agree within the expected calibration uncertainties of the airborne and ground-based radars. This result shows that the Cloudsat radar does achieve the claimed sensitivity of around −29 dBZ. Finally, an evaluation of the tropical “convective ice” profiles measured by Cloudsat has been carried out over the tropical site in Darwin, Australia. It is shown that these profiles can be used statistically down to approximately 9-km height (or 4 km above the melting layer) without attenuation and multiple scattering corrections over Darwin. It is difficult to estimate if this result is applicable to all types of deep convective storms in the tropics. However, this first study suggests that the Cloudsat profiles in convective ice need to be corrected for attenuation by supercooled liquid water and ice aggregates/graupel particles and multiple scattering prior to their quantitative use.