What sets the odds of winning and losing?

Social experience influences the outcome of conflicts such that winners are more likely to win again and losers will more likely lose again, even against different opponents. Although winner and loser effects prevail throughout the animal kingdom and crucially influence social structures, the ultimate and proximate causes for their existence remain unknown. We propose here that two hypotheses are particularly important among the potential adaptive explanations: the 'social-cue hypothesis', which assumes that victory and defeat leave traces that affect the decisions of subsequent opponents; and the 'self-assessment hypothesis', which assumes that winners and losers gain information about their own relative fighting ability in the population. We discuss potential methodologies for experimental tests of the adaptive nature of winner and loser effects.

Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.

Immediate loading of implants with 3-unit fixed partial dentures: a 12-month clinical study

PURPOSE: The aim of the present clinical trial was to evaluate the 12-month success rate of titanium dental implants placed in the posterior mandible and immediately loaded with 3-unit fixed partial dentures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with missing mandibular premolars and molars were enrolled in this study. To be included in the study, the implants had to show good primary stability. Implant stability was measured with resonance frequency analysis using the Osstell device (Integration Diagnostics). Implants were included in the study when the stability quotient (ISQ) exceeded 62. Clinical measurements, such as width of keratinized tissue, ISQ, and radiographic assessment of peri-implant bone crest levels, were performed at baseline and at the 12-month follow-up. The comparison between the baseline and the 12-month visits was performed with the Student t test for paired data (statistically significant at a level of alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: Forty implants with a sandblasted, large grit, acid-etched (SLA) surface (Straumann) were placed in 20 patients. At 12 months, only 1 implant had been lost because of an acute infection. The remaining 39 implants were successful, resulting in a 1-year success rate of 97.5%. Neither peri-implant bone levels, measured radiographically, nor implant stability changed significantly from baseline to the 12-month follow-up (P > .05). DISCUSSION: The immediate functional loading of implants placed in this case series study resulted in a satisfactory success rate. CONCLUSION: The findings from this clinical study showed that the placement of SLA transmucosal implants in the mandibular area and their immediate loading with 3-unit fixed partial dentures may be a safe and successful procedure.

Fixed-Width Output Analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a complicated target distribution via simple ergodic averages. A fundamental question in MCMC applications is when should the sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages good estimates of the desired quantities? We consider a method that stops the MCMC sampling the first time the width of a confidence interval based on the ergodic averages is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating Monte Carlo standard errors is a critical step in assessing the output of the simulation. In particular, we consider the regenerative simulation and batch means methods of estimating the variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We describe sufficient conditions for the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of both methods and investigate their finite sample properties in a variety of examples.

Intravenous magnesium for acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Mortality and morbidity from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remain high. Intravenous magnesium started early after the onset of AMI is thought to be a promising adjuvant treatment. Conflicting results from earlier trials and meta-analyses warrant a systematic review of available evidence. OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of intravenous magnesium versus placebo on early mortality and morbidity. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library Issue 3, 2006), MEDLINE (January 1966 to June 2006) and EMBASE (January 1980 to June 2006), and the Chinese Biomedical Disk (CBM disk) (January 1978 to June 2006). Some core Chinese medical journals relevant to the cardiovascular field were hand searched from their starting date to the first-half year of 2006. SELECTION CRITERIA: All randomized controlled trials that compared intravenous magnesium with placebo in the presence or absence of fibrinolytic therapy in addition to routine treatment were eligible if they reported mortality and morbidity within 35 days of AMI onset. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers independently assessed the trial quality and extracted data using a standard form. Odds ratio (OR) were used to pool the effect if appropriate. Where heterogeneity of effects was found, clinical and methodological sources of this were explored. MAIN RESULTS: For early mortality where there was evidence of heterogeneity, a fixed-effect meta-analysis showed no difference between magnesium and placebo groups (OR 0.99, 95%CI 0.94 to 1.04), while a random-effects meta-analysis showed a significant reduction comparing magnesium with placebo (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.82). Stratification by timing of treatment (< 6 hrs, 6+ hrs) reduced heterogeneity, and in both fixed-effect and random-effects models no significant effect of magnesium was found. In stratified analyses, early mortality was reduced for patients not treated with thrombolysis (OR=0.73, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.94 by random-effects model) and for those treated with less than 75 mmol of magnesium (OR=0.59, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.70) in the magnesium compared with placebo groups.Meta-analysis for the secondary outcomes where there was no evidence of heterogeneity showed reductions in the odds of ventricular fibrillation (OR=0.88, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.96), but increases in the odds of profound hypotension (OR=1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.19) and bradycardia (OR=1.49, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.77) comparing magnesium with placebo. No difference was observed for heart block (OR=1.05, 95% CI 0.97-1.14). For those outcomes where there was evidence of heterogeneity, meta-analysis with both fixed-effect and random-effects models showed that magnesium could decrease ventricular tachycardia (OR=0.45, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.66 by fixed-effect model; OR=0.40, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.84 by random-effects model) and severe arrhythmia needing treatment or Lown 2-5 (OR=0.72, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.85 by fixed-effect model; OR=0.51, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.79 by random-effects model) compared with placebo. There was no difference on the effect of cardiogenic shock between the two groups. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Owing to the likelihood of publication bias and marked heterogeneity of treatment effects, it is essential that the findings are interpreted cautiously. From the evidence reviewed here, we consider that: (1) it is unlikely that magnesium is beneficial in reducing mortality both in patients treated early and in patients treated late, and in patients already receiving thrombolytic therapy; (2) it is unlikely that magnesium will reduce mortality when used at high dose (>=75 mmol); (3) magnesium treatment may reduce the incidence of ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia, severe arrhythmia needing treatment or Lown 2-5, but it may increase the incidence of profound hypotension, bradycardia and flushing; and (4) the areas of uncertainty regarding the effect of magnesium on mortality remain the effect of low dose treatment (< 75 mmol) and in patients not treate...

[Fixed-combination of losartan/hydrochlorothiazide 100 mg/25 mg. Tolerability and efficacy on blood pressure measured in the practice and for 24 hours]

BACKGROUND: A high proportion of patients with essential hypertension need a combination therapy to reach the therapeutic goal. In the present study, the tolerability and efficacy of a fixed, once daily combination of the AT1 blocker Losartan (100 mg) and the diuretic hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) (25 mg) for patients in the real-life situation was investigated. Special consideration was given to the results of ambulatory 24-hourblood pressure (ABP) measurements. METHODS: The open label, prospective non-interventional surveillance study took place from October 2005 to June 2006. A total of 1139 patients over 18 years in age were included whose blood pressures could not be adequately treated with HCTZ alone and for whom an individual dose titration for Losartan and HCTZ had already been performed. RESULTS: The average age (+/- standard deviation) of the patients was 61.2 +/- 11.6 years; 55.8% were men. Comorbidities were common. Specifically, left ventricular hypertrophy was present in 3.1% of the patients, coronary heart disease in 30.1%, chronic heart failure in 11.8% and status post myocardial infarction in 10.5%, respectively. In addition to the Losartan/HCTZ treatment, 61.0% of the patients received a second antihypertensive medicine. After an average treatment duration of 50.4 +/- 17.2 days, the base line systolic blood pressure of 160.8 +/- 16.3 mmHg decreased by 24.0 +/- 17.0 mmHg (-14.4%) and the diastolic blood pressure of 94.4 +/- 9.9 mmHg decreased by 11.8 +/- 10.2 mmHg (-11.8%). For the ABP measurements, the overall average systolic and diastolic blood pressures fell by 16.9 +/- 14.2 mmHg and 8.8 +/-10.3 mmHg, the day average by 17.3 +/- 14.8 mmHg and 9.0 +/- 10.2 mmHg and the night average by 15.1 +/- 17.6 mmHg and 7.8 +/- 11.7 mmHg, respectively. In twelve of the 1139 patients (1.1%), a total of 15 adverse events occurred. A causal connection with the medication was suspected in only in one case (one patient with three). CONCLUSION: The combination of Losartan/HCTZ 100/25 mg, as the exclusive therapy or in addition to other antihypertensive medicines, was for patients, many of whom who had comorbidities, in the real-life situation well tolerated and effective. The efficacy was demonstrated also during the night through ABP.

Comparison of the effects of bimatoprost and a fixed combination of latanoprost and timolol on circadian intraocular pressure

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of bimatoprost and the fixed combination of latanoprost and timolol (LTFC) on 24-hour mean intraocular pressure (IOP) after patients are switched from a nonfixed combination of latanoprost and timolol. DESIGN: Randomized, double-masked, multicenter clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension. METHODS: Included were patients who were controlled (IOP < 21 mmHg) on the nonfixed combination of latanoprost and timolol for at least 3 months before the baseline visit or patients on monotherapy with either latanoprost or timolol who were eligible for dual therapy not being fully controlled on monotherapy. The latter group of patients underwent a 6-week wash-in phase with the nonfixed combination of latanoprost and timolol before baseline IOP determination and study inclusion. Supine and sitting position IOPs were recorded at 8 pm, midnight, 5 am, 8 am, noon, and 4 pm at baseline, week 6, and week 12 visits. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: An analysis of covariance model was used for a noninferiority test of the primary efficacy variable, with mean area under the 24-hour IOP curve after 12 weeks of treatment as response variable and treatment, center, and baseline IOP as factors. A secondary analysis was performed on the within-treatment change from baseline. RESULTS: Mean baseline IOPs were 16.3+/-3.3 mmHg and 15.5+/-2.9.mmHg in the bimatoprost and LTFC groups, respectively. At week 12, mean IOPs were 16.1+/-2.5 mmHg for the bimatoprost group and 16.3+/-3.7 mmHg for the LTFC group, and no significant difference between the 2 treatment groups could be found. As compared with baseline, mean IOP increased by 0.3+/-3.6 mmHg during the day and decreased by 0.8+/-3.8 mmHg during the night in the bimatoprost group, whereas there were increases of 1.43+/-2.6 mmHg and 0.14+/-3.2 mmHg in the LTFC group, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bimatoprost is not inferior to the LTFC in maintaining IOP at a controlled level during a 24-hour period in patients switched from the nonfixed combination of latanoprost and timolol.