Development of probabilistic understanding in fourth grade

We analyzed the development of 4th-grade students’ understanding of the transition from experimental relative frequencies of outcomes to theoretical probabilities with a focus on the foundational statistical concepts of variation and expectation. We report students’ initial and changing expectations of the outcomes of tossing one and two coins, how they related the relative frequency from their physical and computersimulated trials to the theoretical probability, and how they created and interpreted theoretical probability models. Findings include students’ progression from an initial apparent equiprobability bias in predicting outcomes of tossing two coins through to representing the outcomes of increasing the number of trials. After observing the decreasing variation from the theoretical probability as the sample size increased, students developed a deeper understanding of the relationship between relative frequency of outcomes and theoretical probability as well as their respective associations with variation and expectation. Students’ final models indicated increasing levels of probabilistic understanding.

Carotid Stenosis, Endarterectomy, and the Brain : Brain microcirculation, diffusion, and cognitive function before and after carotid endarterectomy in patients with a high-grade carotid stenosis

Carotid atherosclerotic disease is a major cause of stroke, but it may remain clinically asymptomatic. The factors that turn the asymptomatic plaque into a symptomatic one are not fully understood, neither are the subtle effects that a high-grade carotid stenosis may have on the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate brain microcirculation, diffusion, and cognitive performance in patients with a high-grade stenosis in carotid artery, clinically either symptomatic or asymptomatic, undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We wanted to find out whether the stenoses are associated with diffusion or perfusion abnormalities of the brain or variation in the cognitive functioning of the patients, and to what extent the potential findings are affected by CEA, and compare the clinically symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects as well as strictly healthy controls. Coagulation and fibrinolytic parameters were compared with the rate microembolic signals (MES) in transcranial Doppler (TCD) and the macroscopic appearance of stenosing plaques in surgery. Patients (n=92) underwent CEA within the study. Blood samples pertaining to coagulation and fibrinolysis were collected before CEA, and the subjects underwent repeated TCD monitoring for MES. A subpopulation (n= 46) underwent MR imaging and repeated neuropsychological examination (preoperative, as well 4 and 100 days after CEA). In MRI, the average apparent diffusion coefficients were higher in the ipsilateral white matter (WM), and altough the interhemispheric difference was abolished by CEA, the levels remained higher than in controls. Symptomatic stenoses were associated with more sluggish perfusion especially in WM, and lower pulsatility of flow in TCD. All patients had poorer cognitive performance than healthy controls. Cognitive functions improved as expected by learning effect despite transient postoperative worsening in a few subjects. Improvement was greater in patients with deepest hypoperfusion, primarily in executive functions. Symptomatic stenoses were associated with higher hematocrit and tissue plasminogen activator antigen levels, as well as higher rate of MES and ulcerated plaques, and better postoperative improvement of vasoreactivity and pulsatility. In light of the findings, carotid stenosis is associated with differences in brain diffusion, perfusion, and cognition. The effect on diffusion in the ipsilateral WM, partially reversible by CEA, may be associated with WM degeneration. Asymptomatic and symptomatic subpopulations differ from each other in terms of hemodynamic adaptation and in their vascular physiological response to removal of stenosis. Although CEA may be associated with a transient cognitive decline, a true improvement of cognitive performance by CEA is possible in patients with the most pronounced perfusion deficits. Mediators of fibrinolysis and unfavourable hemorheology may contribute to the development of a symptomatic disease in patients with a high-grade stenosis.

Combining unsupervised and invigilated assessment of introductory programming

We compared student performance on large-scale take-home assignments and small-scale invigilated tests that require competency with exactly the same programming concepts. The purpose of the tests, which were carried out soon after the take home assignments were submitted, was to validate the students' assignments as individual work. We found widespread discrepancies between the marks achieved by students between the two types of tasks. Many students were able to achieve a much higher grade on the take-home assignments than the invigilated tests. We conclude that these paired assessments are an effective way to quickly identify students who are still struggling with programming concepts that we might otherwise assume they understand, given their ability to complete similar, yet more complicated, tasks in their own time. We classify these students as not yet being at the neo-Piagetian stage of concrete operational reasoning.

Embedded PZT wafer sensors for structural health monitoring

Recent advances in structural integrity evaluation have led to the development. of PZT wafer sensors (PWAS) which can be embedded or surface mounted for both acoustic emission (AE) and ultrasonic (UT) modes, which forms an integrated approach for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of aerospace structures. For the fabrication of PWAS wafers, soft PZT formulation (SP-5H Grade containing dopants like BA, SM, CA, ZN, Y and HF) were used. The piezoelectric charge constant (d(33)) was measured by a d(33) meter. As a first step towards the final objective of developing Health monitoring methods with embedded PWAS, experiments were conducted on aluminum and composite plates of finite dimensions using PWAS sensors. The AE source was simulated by breaking 0.5mm pencil lead on the surface of a thin plate. Experiments were also conducted with surface mounted PZT films and conventional AE sensors in order to establish the sensitivity of PWAS. A comparison of results of theoretical and experimental work shows good agreement.

The influence of school smoking policy and school prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of high school students in Prince Edward Island, Canada

The aim of the study was to examine the influence of school smoking policy and school smoking prevention programs on the smoking behaviour of students in high schools in Prince Edward Island using the School Health Action Planning Evaluation System (SHAPES). A total sample included 13,131 observations of students in grades 10-12 in ten high schools in Prince Edward Island over three waves of data collection (1999, 2000, and 2001). Changes in prevalence of smoking and factors influencing smoking behaviour were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Chi-Square tests. Multi-level logistic regression analyses were used to examine how both school and student characteristics were associated with smoking behaviour (I, II, III, IV). Since students were located within schools, a basic 2-level nested structure was used in which individual students (level 1) were nested within schools (level 2). For grade 12 students, the combination of both school policies and programs was not associated with the risk of smoking and the presence of the new policy was not associated with decreased risk of smoking, unless there were clear rules in place (I). For the grade 10 study, (II) schools with both policies and programs were not associated with decreased risk of smoking. However, the smoking behaviour of older students (grade 12) at a school was associated with younger students’ (grade 10) smoking behaviour. Students first enrolled in a high school in grade 9, rather than grade 10, were at increased risk of occasional smoking. For students who transitioned from grade 10 to 12 (III), close friends smoking had a substantial influence on smoking behaviour for both males and females (III). Having one or more close friends who smoke (Odds Ratio (OR) = 37.46; 95% CI = 19.39 to 72.36), one or more smokers in the home (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.67 to 3.30) and seeing teachers and staff smoking on or near school property (OR=1.78; 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.80), were strongly associated with increased risk of smoking for grade 12 students. Smoking behaviour increased for both junior (Group 1) and senior (Group 2) students (IV). Group 1 students indicated a greater decrease in smoking behaviour and factors influencing smoking behaviour compared to those of Group 2. Students overestimating the percentage of youth their age who smoke was strongly associated with increased likelihood of smoking. Smoking rates showed a decreasing trend (1999, 2000, and 2001). However, policies and programs alone were not successful in influencing smoking behaviour of youth. Rather, factors within the students and schools contextual environment influenced smoking behaviour. Comprehensive approaches are required for school-based tobacco prevention interventions. Keywords: schools, policy, programs, smoking prevention, adolescents Subject Terms: school-based programming, public health, health promotion

Observations on the first steps of atmospheric particle formation and growth

Atmospheric aerosol particles have a significant impact on air quality, human health and global climate. The climatic effects of secondary aerosol are currently among the largest uncertainties limiting the scientific understanding of future and past climate changes. To better estimate the climatic importance of secondary aerosol particles, detailed information on atmospheric particle formation mechanisms and the vapours forming the aerosol is required. In this thesis we studied these issues by applying novel instrumentation in a boreal forest to obtain direct information on the very first steps of atmospheric nucleation and particle growth. Additionally, we used detailed laboratory experiments and process modelling to determine condensational growth properties, such as saturation vapour pressures, of dicarboxylic acids, which are organic acids often found in atmospheric samples. Based on our studies, we came to four main conclusions: 1) In the boreal forest region, both sulphurous compounds and organics are needed for secondary particle formation, the previous contributing mainly to particle formation and latter to growth; 2) A persistent pool of molecular clusters, both neutral and charged, is present and participates in atmospheric nucleation processes in boreal forests; 3) Neutral particle formation seems to dominate over ion-mediated mechanisms, at least in the boreal forest boundary layer; 4) The subcooled liquid phase saturation vapour pressures of C3-C9 dicarboxylic acids are of the order of 1e-5 1e-3 Pa at atmospheric temperatures, indicating that a mixed pre-existing particulate phase is required for their condensation in atmospheric conditions. The work presented in this thesis gives tools to better quantify the aerosol source provided by secondary aerosol formation. The results are particularly useful when estimating, for instance, anthropogenic versus biogenic influences and the fractions of secondary aerosol formation explained by neutral or ion-mediated nucleation mechanisms, at least in environments where the average particle formation rates are of the order of some tens of particles per cubic centimeter or lower. However, as the factors driving secondary particle formation are likely to vary depending on the environment, measurements on atmospheric nucleation and particle growth are needed from around the world to be able to better describe the secondary particle formation, and assess its climatic effects on a global scale.

Twitter as a first draft of the present – and the challenges of preserving it for the future

This paper provides a framework for understanding Twitter as a historical source. We address digital humanities scholars to enable the transfer of concepts from traditional source criticism to new media formats, and to encourage the preservation of Twitter as a cultural artifact. Twitter has established itself as a key social media platform which plays an important role in public, real-time conversation. Twitter is also unique as its content is being archived by a public institution (the Library of Congress). In this paper we will show that we still have to assume that much of the contextual information beyond the pure tweet texts is already lost, and propose additional objectives for preservation.

Optimization of the distance between source and substrate for device-grade SnS films grown by the thermal evaporation technique

Tin monosulfide (SnS) films with varying distance between the source and substrate (DSS) were prepared by the thermal evaporation technique at a temperature of 300 degrees C to investigate the effect of the DSS on the physical properties. The physical properties of the as-deposited films are strongly influenced by the variation of DSS. The thickness, Sn to S at.% ratio, grain size, and root mean square (rms) roughness of the films decreased with the increase of DSS. The films grown at DSS = 10 and 15 cm exhibited nearly single-crystalline nature with low electrical resistivity. From Hall-effect measurements, it is observed that the films grown at DSS <= 15 cm have p-type conduction and the films grown at higher distances have n-type conduction due to the variation of the Sn/S ratio. The films grown at DSS = 15 cm showed higher optical band gap of 1.36 eV as compared with the films grown at other distances. The effect of the DSS on the physical properties of SnS films is discussed and reported.

First-Line afatinib versus chemotherapy in patients with non–small cell lung cancer and common epidermal growth factor receptor gene mutations and brain metastases

Introduction Metastatic spread to the brain is common in patients with non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but these patients are generally excluded from prospective clinical trials. The studies, phase III study of afatinib or cisplatin plus pemetrexed in patients with metastatic lung adenocarcinoma with EGFR mutations (LUX-Lung 3) and a randomized, open-label, phase III study of BIBW 2992 versus chemotherapy as first-line treatment for patients with stage IIIB or IV adenocarcinoma of the lung harbouring an EGFR activating mutation (LUX-Lung 6) investigated first-line afatinib versus platinum-based chemotherapy in epidermal growth factor receptor gene (EGFR) mutation-positive patients with NSCLC and included patients with brain metastases; prespecified subgroup analyses are assessed in this article. Methods For both LUX-Lung 3 and LUX-Lung 6, prespecified subgroup analyses of progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival, and objective response rate were undertaken in patients with asymptomatic brain metastases at baseline (n = 35 and n = 46, respectively). Post hoc analyses of clinical outcomes was undertaken in the combined data set (n = 81). Results In both studies, there was a trend toward improved PFS with afatinib versus chemotherapy in patients with brain metastases (LUX-Lung 3: 11.1 versus 5.4 months, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.54, p = 0.1378; LUX-Lung 6: 8.2 versus 4.7 months, HR = 0.47, p = 0.1060). The magnitude of PFS improvement with afatinib was similar to that observed in patients without brain metastases. In combined analysis, PFS was significantly improved with afatinib versus with chemotherapy in patients with brain metastases (8.2 versus 5.4 months; HR, 0.50; p = 0.0297). Afatinib significantly improved the objective response rate versus chemotherapy in patients with brain metastases. Safety findings were consistent with previous reports. Conclusions These findings lend support to the clinical activity of afatinib in EGFR mutation–positive patients with NSCLC and asymptomatic brain metastases.

Cilengitide combined with cetuximab and platinum-based chemotherapy as first-line treatment in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients: Results of an open-label, randomized, controlled phase II study (CERTO)

Background: This multicentre, open-label, randomized, controlled phase II study evaluated cilengitide in combination with cetuximab and platinum-based chemotherapy, compared with cetuximab and chemotherapy alone, as first-line treatment of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients and methods: Patients were randomized 1:1:1 to receive cetuximab plus platinum-based chemotherapy alone (control), or combined with cilengitide 2000 mg 1×/week i.v. (CIL-once) or 2×/week i.v. (CIL-twice). A protocol amendment limited enrolment to patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) histoscore ≥200 and closed the CIL-twice arm for practical feasibility issues. Primary end point was progression-free survival (PFS; independent read); secondary end points included overall survival (OS), safety, and biomarker analyses. A comparison between the CIL-once and control arms is reported, both for the total cohorts, as well as for patients with EGFR histoscore ≥200. Results: There were 85 patients in the CIL-once group and 84 in the control group. The PFS (independent read) was 6.2 versus 5.0 months for CIL-once versus control [hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; P = 0.085]; for patients with EGFR histoscore ≥200, PFS was 6.8 versus 5.6 months, respectively (HR 0.57; P = 0.0446). Median OS was 13.6 for CIL-once versus 9.7 months for control (HR 0.81; P = 0.265). In patients with EGFR ≥200, OS was 13.2 versus 11.8 months, respectively (HR 0.95; P = 0.855). No major differences in adverse events between CIL-once and control were reported; nausea (59% versus 56%, respectively) and neutropenia (54% versus 46%, respectively) were the most frequent. There was no increased incidence of thromboembolic events or haemorrhage in cilengitide-treated patients. αvβ3 and αvβ5 expression was neither a predictive nor a prognostic indicator. Conclusions: The addition of cilengitide to cetuximab/chemotherapy indicated potential clinical activity, with a trend for PFS difference in the independent-read analysis. However, the observed inconsistencies across end points suggest additional investigations are required to substantiate a potential role of other integrin inhibitors in NSCLC treatment.

2nd ESMO Consensus Conference in Lung Cancer: Locally advanced stage III non-small-cell lung cancer

To complement the existing treatment guidelines for all tumour types, ESMO organises consensus conferences to focus on specific issues in each type of tumour. The 2nd ESMO Consensus Conference on Lung Cancer was held on 11–12 May 2013 in Lugano. A total of 35 experts met to address several questions on non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in each of four areas: pathology and molecular biomarkers, first-line/second and further lines of treatment in advanced disease, early-stage disease and locally advanced disease. For each question, recommendations were made including reference to the grade of recommendation and level of evidence. This consensus paper focuses on locally advanced disease.

Dynamo onset as a first-order transition: Lessons from a shell model for magnetohydrodynamics

We carry out systematic and high-resolution studies of dynamo action in a shell model for magnetohydro-dynamic (MHD) turbulence over wide ranges of the magnetic Prandtl number Pr-M and the magnetic Reynolds number Re-M. Our study suggests that it is natural to think of dynamo onset as a nonequilibrium first-order phase transition between two different turbulent, but statistically steady, states. The ratio of the magnetic and kinetic energies is a convenient order parameter for this transition. By using this order parameter, we obtain the stability diagram (or nonequilibrium phase diagram) for dynamo formation in our MHD shell model in the (Pr-M(-1), Re-M) plane. The dynamo boundary, which separates dynamo and no-dynamo regions, appears to have a fractal character. We obtain a hysteretic behavior of the order parameter across this boundary and suggestions of nucleation-type phenomena.

Rural first year university students: As engaged, aspirational and motivated as anyone – but different science ‘choices’ in year 12 and university

This paper reports on findings from the Interests and Recruitment in Science study, which explored the experiences of first year students studying science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses in Australian universities. First year STEM students who went to school in rural or regional areas were as engaged, aspirational and motivated as their more metropolitan counterparts. However, they were less likely to have studied physics or advance mathematics, and more likely to have enrolled in an Agricultural or Environmental Science degree. The relationships between these results and broader contextual issues such as employment and Higher Education budgetary and policy settings are discussed.