892 resultados para estimating conditional probabilities


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This manuscript details a technique for estimating gesture accuracy within the context of motion-based health video games using the MICROSOFT KINECT. We created a physical therapy game that requires players to imitate clinically significant reference gestures. Player performance is represented by the degree of similarity between the performed and reference gestures and is quantified by collecting the Euler angles of the player's gestures, converting them to a three-dimensional vector, and comparing the magnitude between the vectors. Lower difference values represent greater gestural correspondence and therefore greater player performance. A group of thirty-one subjects was tested. Subjects achieved gestural correspondence sufficient to complete the game's objectives while also improving their ability to perform reference gestures accurately.

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We propose a simple implementation of Black’s (1988) elegant rule for discounting uncertain future cash flows. Black’s rule avoids the thorny problem of estimating an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. Instead, the rule calls for discounting conditional mean cash flows at appropriate riskless interest rates. Our contribution in this article is to describe and illustrate a method of estimating the conditional mean cash flows called for in Black’s rule. The method is quite flexible with respect to the types of information available concerning the distributions of future cash flows. We argue that this approach to computing present values offers a theoretically sound and generally feasible addition to the toolbox of financial managers.

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Background: Basophils constitute a rare leukocyte population known for their effector functions in inflammation and allergy, as well as more recently described immunoregulatory roles. Besides their low frequency, functional analysis of basophils is hindered by a short life span, inefficient ex vivo differentiation protocols, and lack of suitable cell models. A method to produce large quantities of basophils in vitro would facilitate basophil research and constitute a sought-after tool for diagnostic and drug testing purposes. Methods: A method is described to massively expand bone marrow–derived basophils in vitro. Myeloid progenitors are conditionally immortalized using Hoxb8 in the presence of interleukin-3 (IL-3) and outgrowing cell lines selected for their potential to differentiate into basophils upon shutdown of Hoxb8 expression. Results: IL-3-dependent, conditional Hoxb8-immortalized progenitor cell lines can be expanded and maintained in culture for prolonged periods. Upon shutdown of Hoxb8 expression, near-unlimited numbers of mature functional basophils can be differentiated in vitro within six days. The cells are end-differentiated and short-lived and express basophil-specific surface markers and proteases. Upon IgE- as well as C5a-mediated activation, differentiated basophils release granule enzymes and histamine and secrete Th2-type cytokines (IL-4, IL-13) and leukotriene C4. IL-3-deprivation induces apoptosis correlating with upregulation of the BH3-only proteins BCL-2-interacting mediator of cell death (BIM) and p53 upregulated modulator of apoptosis (PUMA) and downregulation of proviral integration site for Moloney murine leukemia virus 1 kinase (PIM-1). Conclusion: A novel method is presented to generate quantitative amounts of mouse basophils in vitro, which moreover allows genetic manipulation of conditionally immortalized progenitors. This approach may represent a useful alternative method to isolating primary basophils.

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A study was performed to determine the feasability of using a measurement of ribeye depth (RED) from a longitudinal ultrasound image to estimate ribeye area (REA). The correlation between RED obtained with ultrasound and REA from a tracing was high for both implanted (r = .49) and non-implanted (r = .45) steers. The mean bias between predicted REA and actual REA was not different from zero. This analysis shows that RED could be an accurate indicator of REA.

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Source verification and pooling of feeder cattle into larger lots resulted in higher selling prices compared to more typical sales at a southern Iowa auction market. After higher prices due to larger lot sizes were accounted for, cattle that received a specified management program and were source verified as to origin received additional price premiums. The data do not distinguish between the value of the specific management program and the value of the source verification process. However, cow–calf producers participating in the program took home more money.

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Source verification and pooling of feeder cattle into larger lots resulted in higher selling prices compared with more typical sales at a southern Iowa auction market. After accounting for higher prices due to larger lot sizes, cattle that received a specified management program and were source verified as to origin received additional price premiums. The data do not distinguish between the value of the specific management program and the value of the source verification process. However, cow-calf producers participating in the program took home more money.

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Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.