Koherens kockázatmérés és tőkeallokáció = Coherent risk measurement and capital allocation

Bármennyire szeretne is egy bank (vállalat, biztosító) csak az üzletre koncentrálni, nem térhet ki a pénzügyi (hitel-, piaci, operációs, egyéb) kockázatok elől, amelyeket mérnie és fedeznie kell. A teljes fedezés vagy nagyon költséges, vagy nem is lehetséges, így a csőd elkerülésre minden gazdálkodó egységnek tartania kell valamennyi kockázatmentes, likvid tőkét. Koherens kockázatmérésre van szükség: az allokált tőkének tükröznie kell a kockázatokat - azonban még akkor is felmerül elosztási probléma, ha jól tudjuk mérni azokat. A diverzifikációs hatásoknak köszönhetően egy portfólió teljes kockázata általában kisebb, mint a portfóliót alkotó alportfóliók kockázatának összege. A koherens tőkeallokáció során azzal a kérdéssel kell foglalkoznunk, hogy mennyi tőkét osszunk az alportfóliókra, vagyis hogyan osszuk el „kor­rekt” módon a diverzifikáció előnyeit. Így megkapjuk az eszközök kockázathoz való hozzájárulását. A tanulmányban játékelmélet alkalmazásával, összetett opciós példákon keresztül bemutatjuk a kockázatok következetes mérését és felosztását, felhívjuk a figyelmet a következetlenségek veszélyeire, valamint megvizsgáljuk, hogy a gyakorlatban alkalmazott kockázatmérési módszerek [különösen a kockáztatott érték (VaR)] mennyire felelnek meg az elmélet által szabott követelményeknek. ____________________ However much a bank (or company or insurance provider) concentrates only on business, it cannot avoid financial (credit, market, operational or other) risks that need to be measured and covered. Total cover is either very expensive or not even possible, so that every business unit has to hold some risk-free liquid capital to avoid insolvency. What it needs is coherent risk measurement: the capital allocated has to match the risks, but even if the risks are measured well, distribution problems can still arise. Thanks to diversification effects, the total risk of a portfolio is less than the sum of the risks of its sub-portfolios. Coherent capital allocation entails addressing the question of how much capital to divide among the sub-portfolios, or how to distribute ‘correctly’ the advantages of diversification. This yields the contribution of the assets to the risk. The study employs game theory and examples of compound options to demonstrate coherent measurement and distribution of risks. Attention is drawn to the dangers of inconsistencies. The authors examine how far the methods of risk measurement applied in practice (notably VaR—value at risk) meet the requirements set in theory.

A comparative analysis of self-determined evaluations of work performance and support needs by adults with mental retardation in supported work and in sheltered workshop environments

The purpose of this study was to determine if there was a difference in the self-determined evaluations of work performance and support needs by adults with mental retardation in supported employment and in sheltered workshop environments. The instrument, Job Observation and Behavior Scale: Opportunity for Self-Determination (JOBS: OSD; Brady, Rosenberg, & Frain, 2006), was administered to 38 adults with mental retardation from sheltered workshops and 32 adults with mental retardation from supported employment environments. Cross-tabulations with Chi-square tests and independent samples t-tests were conducted to evaluate differences between the two groups, sheltered workshop and supported work. Two Multivariate Analyses of Variance (MANOVAs) were conducted to determine the effect of work environment on Quality of Performance (QP) and Types of Support (TS) test scores and their subscales. ^ This study found that there were significant differences between the groups on the QP Behavior and Job Duties subscales. The sheltered workshop group perceived themselves as performing significantly better on job duties than the supported work group. Conversely, the supported work group perceived themselves to have better behavior than the sheltered workshop group. However, there were no significant differences between groups in their perception of support needs for the three subscales. ^ The findings imply that work environment affects the self-determined evaluations of work performance by adults with mental retardation. Recommendations for further study include (a) detailing the characteristics of supported work and sheltered workshops that support and/or discourage self-determined behaviors, (b) exploring the behavior of adults with mental retardation in sheltered workshops and supported work environments, and (c) analysis of the support needs for and understanding of them by adults with mental retardation in sheltered workshops and in supported work environments. ^

The epidemiology of prostate cancer among multiethnic men

The research goal was to document differences in the epidemiology of prostate cancer among multicultural men [non-Hispanic White (NHW), Hispanic (H), non-Hispanic Black (NHB)], and Black subgroups, particularly among NHB subgroups [US-born (USB) and Caribbean-born (CBB)]. Study findings will be useful in supporting further research into Black subgroups. Aim 1 explored changes over time in reported prostate cancer prevalence, by race/ethnicity and by birthplace (within the Black subgroups). Aim 2 investigated relationships between observed and latent variables. The analytical approaches included confirmatory factor analysis (CFA for measurement models) and structural equation modeling (SEM for regression models). National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 1999–2008 were used. The study sample included men aged 18 and older, grouped by race/ethnicity. Among the CBB group, survey respondents were limited to the English-speaking Caribbean. Prostate cancer prevalence, by race showed a higher trend among NHB men than NHW men overall, however differences over time were not significant. CBB men reported a higher proportion of prostate cancer among cancers diagnosed than USB men overall. Due to small sample sizes, stable prostate cancer prevalence trends could not be assessed over time nor could trends in the receipt of a PSA exam among NHB men when stratified by birthplace. USB and CBB men differ significantly in their screening behavior. The effect of SES on PSA screening adjusted for risk factors was statistically significant while latent variable lifestyle was not. Among risk factors, family history of cancer exhibited a consistent positive effect on PSA screening for both USB and CBB men. Among the CBB men, the number of years lived in the US did not significantly affect PSA screening behavior. When NHB men are stratified by birthplace, CBB men had a higher overall prevalence of prostate cancer diagnoses than USB men although not statistically significant. USB men were 2 to 3 times more likely to have had a PSA exam compared to CBB men, but among CBB men birthplace did not make a significant difference in screening behavior. Latent variable SES, but not lifestyle, significantly affected the likelihood of a PSA exam.

“Like a Family”: Perspectives of Doctoral Students from Traditionally Under-represented Populations on Cohorts

This study examined the experiences of special education doctoral students from minority populations and investigated the perceptions of students in the cohort experience. Three themes emerged: The cohort was a (a) family for bonding and support, (b) motivator for academic success and retention, and an (c) inhibitor of educational growth.

Special Education Teachers: What Keeps Them in the Field?

The dilemma of securing a special education teacher supply is a critical issue. Understanding causes of attrition is vital to addressing the problem. This review analyzes literature and identifies factors for teacher retention/attrition while overlaying the concept of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to understand this phenomenon from a psychological perspective.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices affecting health behaviors in the U.S. Army Special Operations Command population of Rangers

Malaria is a threat to United States military personnel operating in endemic areas, from which there have been hundreds of cases reported over the past decade. Each of these cases might have been avoided with proper adherence to malaria chemoprophylaxis medications. Military operations may detract from the strict 100% adherence required of these preventive medications. However, the reasons for non-adherence in military populations are not well understood. This behavior was investigated using a cross sectional study design on a convenience sample of U.S. Army Ranger volunteers (n=150) located at three military instillations. Theoretical support was based on components of the Health Belief Model, the Theory of Reasoned Action/Theory of Planned Behavior, and the Social Cognitive Theory. ^ Data on knowledge, attitudes, and practices, as well as multiple environmental domains was collected using an original yet unvalidated questionnaire. The data was analyzed using bivariate Pearson correlations, binary logistic regression, and moderated logistic regressions employing a 0.05 criterion of statistical significance. Power analyses predicted 96-98% power for this analysis. ^ Multiple significant medium strength Pearson correlation coefficients were identified relative to the two dependent variables Take medications as directed and Intend to take the medications as directed the next time. Binary logistic regression analyses identified multiple variables that may predict behavioral intentions to adhere to these preventive medications, as a proxy for behavioral change. Moderated logistic regression analyses identified Command Support for adherence to these medications as a potential significant moderator that interacts with independent variables within three domains of the survey questionnaire. ^ The findings indicate that there may be potential significant beneficial effects, which may improve this behavior in this population of Rangers through 1) promoting affirmative interpersonal communications that emphasize adherence to these medications, 2) including malaria chemoprophylaxis medications in the mission planning process, and 3) military command support, in the form of including the importance of proper adherence to these medications in the unit safety briefings.^

A State and Territorial Survey Regarding Utilization of Environmental Health Shelter Assessments during Disasters, and a Secondary Analysis of Available Shelter Assessment Data

Disasters are complex events characterized by damage to key infrastructure and population displacements into disaster shelters. Assessing the living environment in shelters during disasters is a crucial health security concern. Until now, jurisdictional knowledge and preparedness on those assessment methods, or deficiencies found in shelters is limited. A cross-sectional survey (STUSA survey) ascertained knowledge and preparedness for those assessments in all 50 states, DC, and 5 US territories. Descriptive analysis of overall knowledge and preparedness was performed. Fisher’s exact statistics analyzed differences between two groups: jurisdiction type and population size. Two logistic regression models analyzed earthquakes and hurricane risks as predictors of knowledge and preparedness. A convenience sample of state shelter assessments records (n=116) was analyzed to describe environmental health deficiencies found during selected events. Overall, 55 (98%) of jurisdictions responded (states and territories) and appeared to be knowledgeable of these assessments (states 92%, territories 100%, p = 1.000), and engaged in disaster planning with shelter partners (states 96%, territories 83%, p = 0.564). Few had shelter assessment procedures (states 53%, territories 50%, p = 1.000); or training in disaster shelter assessments (states 41%, 60% territories, p = 0.638). Knowledge or preparedness was not predicted by disaster risks, population size, and jurisdiction type in neither model. Knowledge: hurricane (Adjusted OR 0.69, 95% C.I. 0.06-7.88); earthquake (OR 0.82, 95% C.I. 0.17-4.06); and both risks (OR 1.44, 95% C.I. 0.24-8.63); preparedness model: hurricane (OR 1.91, 95% C.I. 0.06-20.69); earthquake (OR 0.47, 95% C.I. 0.7-3.17); and both risks (OR 0.50, 95% C.I. 0.06-3.94). Environmental health deficiencies documented in shelter assessments occurred mostly in: sanitation (30%); facility (17%); food (15%); and sleeping areas (12%); and during ice storms and tornadoes. More research is needed in the area of environmental health assessments of disaster shelters, particularly, in those areas that may provide better insight into the living environment of all shelter occupants and potential effects in disaster morbidity and mortality. Also, to evaluate the effectiveness and usefulness of these assessments methods and the data available on environmental health deficiencies in risk management to protect those at greater risk in shelter facilities during disasters.

Doing Research with Vulnerable Populations: The Case of Intravenous Drug Users

Article

Epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon hospital admission in children - a systematic review

Objectives: NICE/NPSA excluded children under 16 from their guidance concerning medicines reconciliation (MR) upon admission.1 Our aims and objectives of conducting the literature review was to identify the epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon admission, transfer and discharge in children, and if they require MR. Method: Six bibliographical databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, Web of Science and Biosis Previews) and selected key words were used to find epidemiological studies on medication discrepancies in children upon hospital admission, transfer and discharge (key words included ‘medication discrepancy’; ‘medication reconciliation’; ‘hospital admission’; ‘hospital discharge’; ‘hospital transfer’); studies where the data for children could be extracted were included. Results: From the 1239 articles found (in May 2011), eight of the articles had extractable paediatric information, (five from Canada, two from USA, one from UK). Five of the studies involved discrepancies on admission, one involved discrepancies on admission and transfer, one involved discrepancies at transfer and one considered discharge. The reference point used to compare against the admission, transfer and the discharge order differed in each of the studies. Four studies used a rating scale to assess the clinical significance of the discrepancies to demonstrate the potential adverse clinical outcome of patients in the absence of clinical intervention. Two studies2 3 used a rating scale that was used in adults.4 A study of paediatric neurosurgical patients found that initial hospital prescriptions for children differed from the preadmission prescriptions in 39% of occasions and 50% of all prescribing variations had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.2 A study by Coffey et al in general paediatric admissions in Canada showed 22% of patients experienced at least one discrepancy and 29% of the discrepancies had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.3 By comparison an epidemiological study in discrepancies in adults on admission had 38.6% of the discrepancies identified with a potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.4 All the studies involved small samples or specific patient groups such as medically complex patients. However all of the studies demonstrated that discrepancies occurred among paediatric populations during transitions in care settings and mentioned MR as an intervention. Conclusion: The results have shown that discrepancies of medication upon hospital admission, transfer and discharge occur regularly in children. With only one published study in the UK looking at hospital admission in children, and no published articles on the incidence and epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon hospital transfer or discharge further research is required in a wider paediatric population. Further work is also required to define the required interventions to improve practice.

Variable mutation rates as an adaptive strategy in replicator populations

For evolving populations of replicators, there is much evidence that the effect of mutations on fitness depends on the degree of adaptation to the selective pressures at play. In optimized populations, most mutations have deleterious effects, such that low mutation rates are favoured. In contrast to this, in populations thriving in changing environments a larger fraction of mutations have beneficial effects, providing the diversity necessary to adapt to new conditions. What is more, non-adapted populations occasionally benefit from an increase in the mutation rate. Therefore, there is no optimal universal value of the mutation rate and species attempt to adjust it to their momentary adaptive needs. In this work we have used stationary populations of RNA molecules evolving in silico to investigate the relationship between the degree of adaptation of an optimized population and the value of the mutation rate promoting maximal adaptation in a short time to a new selective pressure. Our results show that this value can significantly differ from the optimal value at mutation-selection equilibrium, being strongly influenced by the structure of the population when the adaptive process begins. In the short-term, highly optimized populations containing little variability respond better to environmental changes upon an increase of the mutation rate, whereas populations with a lower degree of optimization but higher variability benefit from reducing the mutation rate to adapt rapidly. These findings show a good agreement with the behaviour exhibited by actual organisms that replicate their genomes under broadly different mutation rates. © 2010 Stich et al.

An examination of the role of the sports and exercise medicine specialist in Ireland- from epidemiology to treatment

The expansion of the specialty of sports and exercise medicine (SEM) is a relatively recent development in the medical community and the role of the SEM specialist continues to evolve and develop. The SEM specialist is ideally placed to care for all aspects of physical activity not only in athletes but also in the general population. As an advocate for physical activity the SEM specialist plays a broad role in advising safe effective sports and recreation participation; screening for disease related to sports participation; examining and contributing to the evidence behind treatment strategies and evaluating any potential negative impact of sports injury prevention measures. In this thesis I will demonstrate the breadth of the role the Sports and Exercise Medicine Specialist from epidemiology to in-depth examination of treatment strategies. In Chapter 2, I examined the epidemiology of sports and recreation related injury (SRI) in Ireland, an area that has previously been poorly studied. We report on 3,172 SRI (14% of total presentations) presentations to the ED over 6 months. Paediatric patients (4-16 yrs) were over represented comprising 39.9% of all SRI presentation compared to 16% of total ED presentations and 18% of the general population. These injuries were serious (32% fractures) and though 49% of injuries occurred during organised competition/practice, 41.5% occurred during recreation-most often at home. In Chapter 3, I examined risk factors associated with hand injury in hurling. The previous chapter highlighted the importance of a firm evidence base underpinning treatment strategies. When measures to improve welfare are introduced not only must potential benefits be measured, so too must potential unwanted adverse outcomes. In this study I examined a cohort of adult hurlers who had presented to the ED with a hurling related injury in order to highlight the variables associated with hand injury in this population. I found the athletes who wore a helmet were far more likely (OR 3.15 95% CI (1.51-6.56) p= 0.002) to suffer a hand injury than athletes who did not. Very few of those interviewed (4.9%) used hand protection compared to 65% who used helmet and faceguard. The introduction of the helmet and faceguard in hurling has undeniably decreased the incidence of head and face injury in hurling. However in tandem with this intervention several observational studies have demonstrated an increase in the occurrence of hurling related hand injuries. This study highlights the importance of being cognisant of unanticipated or unintended consequences when implementing a new treatment or intervention. In Chapter 4, I examined the role of population screening as applied to sport and exercise. This is a controversial area –cardiac screening in the exercising population has been the subject of much debate. Specifically I define the prevalence of exercise induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) using a specifically designed sports specific field-testing protocol. In this study I found almost a third (29%) of a full international professional rugby squad had confirmed asthma or EIB, as compared with 12-15% of the general population. Despite regular medical screening, 5 ‘new’ untreated cases (12%) were elicited by the challenge test and in the group already on treatment for asthma/EIB; over 50% still displayed EIB. In Chapter 5, I examined the evidence supporting current treatment options for iliotibial band friction syndrome (ITBFS). The practice of sports medicine has traditionally been ‘eminence based’ rather than ‘evidence based’. This may be problematic as some of these practices are based upon flawed principles- for example the treatment of iliotibial band friction syndrome (ITBFS). In this chapter, using cadaveric and biomechanical studies I expand upon the growing base of evidence clarifying the anatomy and biomechanics of the area-thereby re-examining the principles on which current treatments are based. The role of the SEM specialist is broad; we chose to examine specific examples of some of the roles that they execute. An understanding of the epidemiology of SRI presenting to the ED has implications for individual patients, sports governing bodies and health resource utilisation. Population screening is an important tool in health promotion and disease prevention in the general population. Screening in SEM may have similar less well-recognised benefits. The SEM specialist needs to be conversant in screening for medical conditions concerning physical activity. A comprehensive understanding of the pathophysiology of a disease is required for its diagnosis and treatment. Due to the ongoing evolution of SEM many treatments are eminence-based rather than evidence‐based practice. Continued re-examination of the fundamentals of current practice is essential. An awareness of potential unwanted side effects is essential prior to the introduction of any new treatment or intervention. The SEM specialist is ideally placed to advise sports governing bodies on these issues prior to and during their implementation.

Challenges in the Management of Geriatric Obesity in High Risk Populations.

The global prevalence of obesity in the older adult population is growing, an increasing concern in both the developed and developing countries of the world. The study of geriatric obesity and its management is a relatively new area of research, especially pertaining to those with elevated health risks. This review characterizes the state of science for this "fat and frail" population and identifies the many gaps in knowledge where future study is urgently needed. In community dwelling older adults, opportunities to improve both body weight and nutritional status are hampered by inadequate programs to identify and treat obesity, but where support programs exist, there are proven benefits. Nutritional status of the hospitalized older adult should be optimized to overcome the stressors of chronic disease, acute illness, and/or surgery. The least restrictive diets tailored to individual preferences while meeting each patient's nutritional needs will facilitate the energy required for mobility, respiratory sufficiency, immunocompentence, and wound healing. Complications of care due to obesity in the nursing home setting, especially in those with advanced physical and mental disabilities, are becoming more ubiquitous; in almost all of these situations, weight stability is advocated, as some evidence links weight loss with increased mortality. High quality interdisciplinary studies in a variety of settings are needed to identify standards of care and effective treatments for the most vulnerable obese older adults.

Doing Research with Vulnerable Populations: The Case of Intravenous Drug Users

Article

The Impact of Geographic Mobility on Canadian Military families and their Children’s Access Special Education Services

To achieve academic success, children with learning-related disabilities often receive special education supports at school. Currently, Canada does not have a federal department or integrated national system of education. Instead, each province and territory has a separate department or ministry that is responsible for the organization and delivery of education, including special education, at the elementary level. At the macro (national) level, inclusive education is the policy across Canada. However, each province and territory has its own legislation, definitions, and policies mandating special education services. These variations result in little consistency at the micro (individual school) level. Differences between eligibility requirements, supports offered, and delivery methods may present challenges for highly mobile families who must navigate new special education systems on behalf of their children with medical or learning challenges. One of the defining features of the Canadian military lifestyle is geographic mobility. As a result, many families are tasked with navigating new school systems for their children, a task that may be more difficult when children require special education services. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of geographic mobility on Canadian military families and their children’s access to special education services. The secondary objective was to gain insight into supports that helped facilitate access to services, as well as supports that participants believe would have helped facilitate access. A qualitative approach, interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA), was employed due to of its focus on individuals’ experiences and their understandings of a particular phenomenon. IPA allowed participants to reflect on the significance of their experiences, while the researcher engaged with these reflections to make sense of the meanings associated with their experiences. Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with civilian caregivers who have a child with special education needs. An interview guide and probes were used to elicit rich, detailed, first-person accounts of their experiences navigating new special education systems. The main themes that emerged from the participants’ combined experiences addressed the emotional components of experiencing a transition, factors that may facilitate access to special education services, and career implications associated with accessing and maintaining special education services. Findings from the study illustrate that Canadian families experience many, and often times severe, barriers to accessing special education services after a posting. Furthermore, the impacts reported throughout the study echo the existing American literature on geographic mobility and access to special education services. Building on the literature, this study also highlights the need for further research exploring factors that create unique barriers to access in a Canadian context, resulting from the current special education climate, military policies, and military family support services.

A 'before and after' study of nursing students' self-assessed competence in identifying the needs of older patients in hospital using an educational workbook.

Background: A core component of nurse education is clinical practice in order to support the development of clinical skills and competence. Assessment and measurement of the clinical competence of nursing students is important to gauge their professional development and educational needs.

Aim: To evaluate the impact of an Older Persons’ Assessment Educational Workbook (OPAEW) and explore second year nursing students’ competence and their opinions and use of the workbook.

Methods: A ‘before and after’ pre-experimental design was undertaken with n=6 second year nursing students. Outcome measures were the Nursing Competencies Questionnaire and the Self-efficacy in Clinical Performance Scale. Content analysis of workbooks and a survey (n=5) of opinions regarding the workbook was undertaken.

Findings: Pre and post test results for the study (n=5) were tested to determine if there was a relationship between changes in the NCQ and SECP repeated measures and use of an OPAEW. Testing identified evidence of a statistically significant difference for both SECP measures (SECP28 p=0.043; SECP7 p=0.042), with no clear statistical evidence of a difference for the NCQ (p=0.08). A weak negative association (NCQ ρ=-0.600 p=0.285; SECP28 ρ=-0.300 p=0.624; SECP7 ρ=-0.205 p=0.741), was found indicating that those participants who scored the lowest scores at the start of the study, benefited most from the workbook.

Content analysis of the OPAEW (n=5) found that 3 of the 5 participants completed all components of the workbook, with a mean of 1051 words used (SD 281.8). Through the survey (n=5) students reported the workbook as a useful guide when undertaking a patient assessment.

Conclusions: The OPAEW showed potential as an intervention to support the development of nursing students’ competence in older person assessment skills.