Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs

We establish the first inter-model comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea-ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to three years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea-ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea-ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea-ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

Modeling the observed proton aurora and ionospheric convection responses to changes in the IMF clock angle: 2. Persistence of ionospheric convection

We apply a numerical model of time-dependent ionospheric convection to two directly driven reconnection pulses during a 15-min interval of southward IMF on 26 November 2000. The model requires an input magnetopause reconnection rate variation, which is here derived from the observed variation in the upstream IMF clock angle, q. The reconnection rate is mapped to an ionospheric merging gap, the MLT extent of which is inferred from the Doppler-shifted Lyman-a emission on newly opened field lines, as observed by the FUV instrument on the IMAGE spacecraft. The model is used to reproduce a variety of features observed during this event: SuperDARN observations of the ionospheric convection pattern and transpolar voltage; FUV observations of the growth of patches of newly opened flux; FUVand in situ observations of the location of the Open-Closed field line Boundary (OCB) and a cusp ion step. We adopt a clock angle dependence of the magnetopause reconnection electric field, mapped to the ionosphere, of the form Enosin4(q/2) and estimate the peak value, Eno, by matching observed and modeled variations of both the latitude, LOCB, of the dayside OCB (as inferred from the equatorward edge of cusp proton emissions seen by FUV) and the transpolar voltage FPC (as derived using the mapped potential technique from SuperDARN HF radar data). This analysis also yields the time constant tOCB with which the open-closed boundary relaxes back toward its equilibrium configuration. For the case studied here, we find tOCB = 9.7 ± 1.3 min, consistent with previous inferences from the observed response of ionospheric flow to southward turnings of the IMF. The analysis confirms quantitatively the concepts of ionospheric flow excitation on which the model is based and explains some otherwise anomalous features of the cusp precipitation morphology.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

Geographical range margins of many taxonomic groups continue to shift polewards

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade (N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade (N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups.

The influence of sea ice dynamics on the climate sensitivity and memory to increased Antarctic sea ice

The study analyzes the sensitivity and memory of the Southern Hemisphere coupled climate system to increased Antarctic sea ice (ASI), taking into account the persistence of the sea ice maxima in the current climate. The mechanisms involved in restoring the climate balance under two sets of experiments, which differ in regard to their sea ice models, are discussed. The experiments are perturbed with extremes of ASI and integrated for 10 yr in a large 30-member ensemble. The results show that an ASI maximum is able to persist for ; 4 yr in the current climate, followed by a negative sea ice phase. The sea ice insulating effect during the positive phase reduces heat fluxes south of 60 8 S, while at the same time these are intensified at the sea ice edge. The increased air stability over the sea ice field strengthens the polar cell while the baroclinicity increases at midlatitudes. The mean sea level pressure is reduced (increased) over high latitudes (midlatitudes), typical of the southern annular mode (SAM) positive phase. The Southern Ocean (SO) becomes colder and fresher as the sea ice melts mainly through sea ice lateral melting, the consequence of which is an increase in the ocean stability by buoyancy and mixing changes. The climate sensitivity is triggered by the sea ice insulating process and the resulting freshwater pulse (fast response), while the climate equilibrium is restored by the heat stored in the SO subsurface layers (long response). It is concluded that the time needed for the ASI anomaly to be dissipated and/or melted is shortened by the sea ice dynamical processes.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface

The most damaging winds in a severe extratropical cyclone often occur just ahead of the evaporating ends of cloud filaments emanating from the so-called cloud head. These winds are associated with low-level jets (LLJs), sometimes occurring just above the boundary layer. The question then arises as to how the high momentum is transferred to the surface. An opportunity to address this question arose when the severe ‘St Jude's Day’ windstorm travelled across southern England on 28 October 2013. We have carried out a mesoanalysis of a network of 1 min resolution automatic weather stations and high-resolution Doppler radar scans from the sensitive S-band Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa), along with satellite and radar network imagery and numerical weather prediction products. We show that, although the damaging winds occurred in a relatively dry region of the cyclone, there was evidence within the LLJ of abundant precipitation residues from shallow convective clouds that were evaporating in a localized region of descent. We find that pockets of high momentum were transported towards the surface by the few remaining actively precipitating convective clouds within the LLJ and also by precipitation-free convection in the boundary layer that was able to entrain evaporatively cooled air from the LLJ. The boundary-layer convection was organized in along-wind rolls separated by 500 to about 3000 m, the spacing varying according to the vertical extent of the convection. The spacing was greatest where the strongest winds penetrated to the surface. A run with a medium-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to reproduce the properties of the observed LLJ. It confirmed the LLJ to be a sting jet, which descended over the leading edge of a weaker cold-conveyor-belt jet.

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MyD88 Signaling Is Required for Efficient Innate and Adaptive Immune Responses to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Infection

The mechanisms that govern the initial interaction between Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, a primary dimorphic fungal pathogen, and cells of the innate immunity need to be clarified. Our previous studies showed that Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) and TLR4 regulate the initial interaction of fungal cells with macrophages and the pattern of adaptive immunity that further develops. The aim of the present investigation was to assess the role of MyD88, an adaptor molecule used by TLRs to activate genes of the inflammatory response in pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis. Studies were performed with normal and MyD88(-/-) C57BL/6 mice intratracheally infected with P. brasiliensis yeast cells. MyD88(-/-) macrophages displayed impaired interaction with fungal yeast cells and produced low levels of IL-12, MCP-1, and nitric oxide, thus allowing increased fungal growth. Compared with wild-type (WT) mice, MyD88(-/-) mice developed a more severe infection of the lungs and had marked dissemination of fungal cells to the liver and spleen. MyD88(-/-) mice presented low levels of Th1, Th2, and Th17 cytokines, suppressed lymphoproliferation, and impaired influx of inflammatory cells to the lungs, and this group of cells comprised lower numbers of neutrophils, activated macrophages, and T cells. Nonorganized, coalescent granulomas, which contained high numbers of fungal cells, characterized the severe lesions of MyD88(-/-) mice; the lesions replaced extensive areas of several organs. Therefore, MyD88(-/-) mice were unable to control fungal growth and showed a significantly decreased survival time. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that MyD88 signaling is important in the activation of fungicidal mechanisms and the induction of protective innate and adaptive immune responses against P. brasiliensis.

Toll-like receptor 4 agonists adsorbed to aluminium hydroxide adjuvant attenuate ovalbumin-specific allergic airway disease: role of MyD88 adaptor molecule and interleukin-12/interferon-gamma axis

Background Epidemiological and experimental data suggest that bacteria] lipopolysaccharides (LPS) can either protect from or exacerbate allergic asthma. Lipopolysaccharides trigger immune responses through toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) that in turn activates two major signalling pathways via either MyD88 or TRIF adaptor proteins. The LPS is a pro-Type 1 T helper cells (Th 1) adjuvant while aluminium hydroxide (alum) is a strong Type 2 T helper cells (Th2) adjuvant, but the effect of the mixing of both adjuvants on the development of lung allergy has not been investigated. Objective We determined whether natural (LPS) or synthetic (ER-803022) TLR4 agonists adsorbed onto alum adjuvant affect allergen sensitization and development of airway allergic disease. To dissect LPS-induced molecular pathways, we used TLR4-, MyD88-, TRIF-, or IL-12/IFN-gamma-deficient mice. Methods Mice were sensitized with subcutaneous injections of ovalbumin (OVA) with or without TLR4 agonists co-adsorbed onto alum and challenged with intranasally with OVA. The development of allergic lung disease was evaluated 24 h after last OVA challenge. Results Sensitization with OVA plus LPS co-adsorbed onto alum impaired in dose-dependent manner OVA-induced Th2-mediated allergic responses such as airway eosinophilia, type-2 cytokines secretion, airway hyper-reactivity, mucus hyper production and serum levels of IgE or IgG1 anaphylactic antibodies. Although the levels of IgG2a, Th1 -affiliated isotype increased, investigation into the lung-specific effects revealed that LPS did not induce a Th1 pattern of inflammation. Lipopolysaccharides impaired the development of Th2 immunity, signaling via TLR4 and MyD88 molecules and via the IL-12/IFN-gamma axis, but not through TRIF pathway. Moreover, the synthetic TLR4 agonists that proved to have a less systemic inflammatory response than LPS also protected against allergic asthma development. Conclusion Toll-like receptor 4 agonists co-adsorbed with allergen onto alum down-modulate allergic lung disease and prevent the development of polarized T cell-mediated airway inflammation.

Two-level network design with intermediate facilities: An application to electrical distribution systems

We consider the two-level network design problem with intermediate facilities. This problem consists of designing a minimum cost network respecting some requirements, usually described in terms of the network topology or in terms of a desired flow of commodities between source and destination vertices. Each selected link must receive one of two types of edge facilities and the connection of different edge facilities requires a costly and capacitated vertex facility. We propose a hybrid decomposition approach which heuristically obtains tentative solutions for the vertex facilities number and location and use these solutions to limit the computational burden of a branch-and-cut algorithm. We test our method on instances of the power system secondary distribution network design problem. The results show that the method is efficient both in terms of solution quality and computational times. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrable maps with non-trivial topology: application to divertor configurations

We explore a method for constructing two-dimensional area-preserving, integrable maps associated with Hamiltonian systems, with a given set of fixed points and given invariant curves. The method is used to find an integrable Poincare map for the field lines in a large aspect ratio tokamak with a poloidal single-null divertor. The divertor field is a superposition of a magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium with an arbitrarily chosen safety factor profile, with a wire carrying an electric current to create an X-point. This integrable map is perturbed by an impulsive perturbation that describes non-axisymmetric magnetic resonances at the plasma edge. The non-integrable perturbed map is applied to study the structure of the open field lines in the scrape-off layer, reproducing the main transport features obtained by integrating numerically the magnetic field line equations, such as the connection lengths and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate.

Optical Properties and Charge-Transfer Excitations in Edge-Functionalized All-Graphene Nanojunctions

We investigate the optical properties of edge-fiinctionalized graphene nanosystems, focusing on the formation of junctions and charge-transfer excitons. We consider a class of graphene structures that combine the main electronic features of graphene with the wide tunability of large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. By investigating prototypical ribbon-like systems, we show that, upon convenient choice of functional groups, low-energy excitations with remarkable charge-transfer character and large oscillator strength are obtained. These properties can be further modulated through an appropriate width variation, thus spanning a wide range in the low-energy region of the UV-vis spectra. Our results are relevant in view of designing all-graphene optoelectronic nanodevices, which take advantage of the versatility of molecular functionalization, together with the stability and the electronic properties of graphene nanostructures.

MAGNETIC RESONANT X-RAY DIFFRACTION APPLIED TO THE STUDY OF EuTe FILMS AND MULTILAYERS

In this work we use magnetic resonant x-ray diffraction to study the magnetic properties of a 1.5 mu m EuTe film and an EuTe/PbTe superlattice (SL). The samples were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on (111) oriented BaF(2) substrates. The measurements were made at the Eu L(2) absorption edge, taking profit of the resonant enhancement of more than two orders in the magnetically diffracted intensity. At resonance, high counting rates above 11000 cps were obtained for the 1.5 gm EuTe film, allowing to check for the type II antiferromagnetic order of EuTe. An equal population of the three possible in-plane magnetic domains was found. The EuTe/PbTe SL magnetic peak showed a satellite structure, indicating the presence of magnetic correlations among the 5 ML (monolayers) EuTe layers across the 15 ML PbTe non-magnetic spacers. The temperature dependence of the integrated intensities of the film and the SL yielded different Neel temperatures T(N). The lower T(N) for the SL is explained considering the higher influence of the surface atoms, with partial bonds lost.