Processes driving intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the warm pool: the contribution of westerly wind events

We investigate the processes responsible for the intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPEE), which appear to play a role in the onset and development of El Niño events. We use 25 years of output from an ocean general circulation model experiment that is able to accurately capture the observed displacements of the WPEE, sea level anomalies, and upper ocean zonal currents at intraseasonal time scales in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Our results confirm that WPEE displacements driven by westerly wind events (WWEs) are largely controlled by zonal advection. This paper has also two novel findings: first, the zonal current anomalies responsible for the WPEE advection are driven primarily by local wind stress anomalies and not by intraseasonal wind-forced Kelvin waves as has been shown in most previous studies. Second, we find that intraseasonal WPEE fluctuations that are not related to WWEs are generally caused by intraseasonal variations in net heat flux, in contrast to interannual WPEE displacements that are largely driven by zonal advection. This study hence raises an interesting question: can surface heat flux-induced zonal WPEE motions contribute to El Niño–Southern Oscillation evolution, as WWEs have been shown to be able to do?

The impact of a thermodynamic sea-ice module in the COSMO numerical weather prediction model on simulations for the Laptev Sea, Siberian Arctic

Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14-30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies.

Seminar: access all areas

Sensory Objects presented their research and their Sensory Labels for the British Museum at a seminar called Access All Areas organised by the Visitor Users Group.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Temporal and spatial variability of surface fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea

Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.

Influence of ground surface characteristics on the mean radiant temperature in urban areas

The effect of variations in land cover on mean radiant surface temperature (Tmrt) is explored through a simple scheme developed within the radiation model SOLWEIG. Outgoing longwave radiation is parameterised using surface temperature observations on a grass and an asphalt surface, whereas outgoing shortwave radiation is modelled through variations in albedo for the different surfaces. The influence of surface materials on Tmrt is small compared to the effects of shadowing. Nevertheless, altering ground surface materials could contribute to a reduction on Tmrt to reduce the radiant load during heat-wave episodes in locations where shadowing is not an option. Evaluation of the new scheme suggests that despite its simplicity it can simulate the outgoing fluxes well, especially during sunny conditions. However, it underestimates at night and in shadowed locations. One grass surface used to develop the parameterisation, with very different characteristics compared to an evaluation grass site, caused Tmrt to be underestimated. The implications of using high resolution (e.g. 15 minutes) temporal forcing data under partly cloudy conditions are demonstrated even for fairly proximal sites.

Spatial and temporal variability of the concentration field from localized releases in a regular building array

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in the concentration field from an ensemble of continuous point-source releases in a regular building array are analyzed from data generated by direct numerical simulations. The release is of a passive scalar under conditions of neutral stability. Results are related to the underlying flow structure by contrasting data for an imposed wind direction of 0 deg and 45 deg relative to the buildings. Furthermore, the effects of distance from the source and vicinity to the plume centreline on the spatial and temporal variability are documented. The general picture that emerges is that this particular geometry splits the flow domain into segments (e.g. “streets” and “intersections”) in each of which the air is, to a first approximation, well mixed. Notable exceptions to this general rule include regions close to the source, near the plume edge, and in unobstructed channels when the flow is aligned. In the oblique (45 deg) case the strongly three-dimensional nature of the flow enhances mixing of a scalar within the canopy leading to reduced temporal and spatial concentration fluctuations within the plume core. These fluctuations are in general larger for the parallel flow (0 deg) case, especially so in the long unobstructed channels. Due to the more complex flow structure in the canyon-type streets behind buildings, fluctuations are lower than in the open channels, though still substantially larger than for oblique flow. These results are relevant to the formulation of simple models for dispersion in urban areas and to the quantification of the uncertainties in their predictions.

The edge of the fall

Edge of the Fall, is about the DeWitt family in the 1920s as they try to make sense of their lives in the aftermath of the war. It's the Flapper Age - and everything is in flux. A sequel to The Storms of War.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Balancing the role of the dental school in teaching, research and patient care; including care for underserved areas

Inequalities within dentistry are common and are reflected in wide differences in the levels of oral health and the standard of care available both within and between countries and communities. Furthermore there are patients, particularly those with special treatment needs, who do not have the same access to dental services as the general public. The dental school should aim to recruit students from varied backgrounds into all areas covered by the oral healthcare team and to train students to treat the full spectrum of patients including those with special needs. It is essential, however, that the dental student achieves a high standard of clinical competence and this cannot be gained by treating only those patients with low expectations for care. Balancing these aspects of clinical education is difficult. Research is an important stimulus to better teaching and better clinical care. It is recognized that dental school staff should be active in research, teaching, clinical work and frequently administration. Maintaining a balance between the commitments to clinical care, teaching and research while also taking account of underserved areas in each of these categories is a difficult challenge but one that has to be met to a high degree in a successful, modern dental school.

Prevalence of untreated caries in deciduous teeth in urban and rural areas in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives. To describe the prevalence of dental caries in children with deciduous teeth in urban and rural areas in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to identify associated factors. Methods. The study included 24 744 children ( 5 - 7 years of age) examined as part of an epidemiological survey on oral health carried out in the state of Sao Paulo ( Levan-tamento Epidemiologico de Sa de Bucal do Estado de Sao Paulo). Multilevel analysis was used to investigate whether the prevalence of untreated caries was associated with the sociodemographic characteristics of the children examined or with the socioeconomic aspects of the participating cities. Results. Being black or brown ( adjusted odds ratio ( OR) = 1.27), attending school in rural areas ( adjusted OR = 1.88), and attending public school ( adjusted OR = 3.41) were identified as determinants for an increased probability of presenting deciduous teeth with untreated caries. Being a female ( adjusted OR = 0.83) was identified as a protective factor. The negative coefficients obtained for second- level independent variables indicate that the oral health profile of the cities included in the study were positively impacted by a higher municipal human development index ( beta = - 0.47) and fluoridated drinking water ( beta = - 0.32). Conclusions. The prevalence of untreated caries is influenced by individual and sociodemographic factors. The present study provides epidemiological information concerning the rural areas in the state of Sao Paulo. This information is useful for strategic planning and for establishing guidelines for oral health actions in local health systems, thereby contributing to oral health equity.

Seasonal variation of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & neiva, 1912) (Diptera : Psychodidae : Phlebotominae) in endemic area of visceral leishmaniasis, Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

The seasonal distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis was studied in two forested and five domiciliary areas of the urban area of Campo Grande; MS, from December 2003 to November 2005. Weekly captures were carried out with CDC light traps positioned on ground and in the canopy inside a residual forest and on the edge (ground) of a woodland and in at least one of the following ecotopes in peridomiciles-a cultivated area, a chicken coop, a pigsty, a kennel, a goat and sheep shelter and an intradomicile. A total of 9519 sand flies were collected, 2666 during the first year and 6853 during the second. L. longipalpis was found throughout the 2-year period, presenting smaller peaks at intervals of 2-3 months and two greater peaks, the first in February and the second in April 2005, soon after periods of heavy rain. Only In one of the woodlands was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between the number of insects and temperature during the first year and the climatic factors (temperature, RHA and rain) was observed. In the domiciliary areas in four domiciles some positive correlations (p < 0.05) occurred in relation to one or more climatic factors; however, the species shows a clear tendency to greater frequency (72%) in the rainy season than in the dry (28%). Thus, we recommend an intensification of the VL control measures applied in Campo Grande, MS, during the rainy season with a view to reducing the risk of the transmission of the disease. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.

Global and diffuse solar irradiances in urban and rural areas in southeast Brazil

The seasonal evolution of daily and hourly values of global and diffuse solar radiation at the surface are compared for the cities of Sao Paulo and Botucatu, both located in Southeast Brazil and representative of urban and rural areas, respectively. The comparisons are based on measurements of global and diffuse solar irradiance carried out at the surface during a six year simultaneous period in these two cities. Despite the similar latitude and altitude, the seasonal evolution of daily values indicate that Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 7.8% less global irradiance in August and 5.1% less in June than Botucatu. On the other hand, Sao Paulo receives, during clear sky days, 3.6% more diffuse irradiance in August and 15.6% more in June than Botucatu. The seasonal variation of the diurnal cycle confirms these differences and indicates that they are more pronounced during the afternoon. The regional differences are related to the distance from the Atlantic Ocean, systematic penetration of the sea breeze and daytime evolution of the particulate matter in Sao Paulo. An important mechanism controlling the spatial distribution of solar radiation, on a regional scale, is the sea breeze penetration in Sao Paulo, bringing moisture and maritime aerosol that in turn further increases the solar radiation scattering due to pollution and further reduces the intensity of the direct component of solar radiation at the surface. Surprisingly, under clear sky conditions the atmospheric attenuation of solar radiation in Botucatu during winter - the biomass burning period due to the sugar cane harvest - is equivalent to that at Sao Paulo City, indicating that the contamination during sugar cane harvest in Southeast Brazil has a large impact in the solar radiation field at the surface.