800 resultados para ecological risk assessment
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Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.
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Catches of sharks and bycatch in large-mesh nets and baited drumlines used by the Queensland Shark Control Program were examined to determine the efficacy of both gear types and assess fishing strategies that minimise their impacts. There were few significant differences in the size of both sharks and bycatch in the two gear types, apart from significantly smaller (p < 0.05) tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier being taken on drumlines and smaller green turtles Chelonia mydas in nets. Catch per unit effort showed orders of magnitude differences among species, even within the same family. Hammerhead sharks and rays were particularly vulnerable to net capture, whereas higher catch rates of tiger sharks were observed for drumlines. Nets caught more marine mammals, teleost fish and rays, whereas drumlines exhibited higher catch rates of the threatened loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta. Survival of most taxa (particularly obligate ram ventilators) was lower in nets than drumlines. Bycatch species (turtles and marine mammals) were able to swim to the surface to breathe when they were hooked on drumlines, enhancing their survival potential. Fishing strategies that recognise the different selectivity patterns of the gear can be developed to suit local biotic and abiotic conditions, although it is recognised that quantification of both ecological risk and risk to bathers is not a simple task.
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Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.
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Dyslipidaemia, a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), is prevalent not only in diabetic patients but also in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG). The aims of this study were: 1) to investigate lipid levels in relation to glucose in European (Study I) and Asian (Study II) populations without a prior history of diabetes; 2) to study the ethnic difference in lipid profiles controlling for glucose levels (Study III); 3) to estimate the relative risk for cardiovascular mortality (Study IV) and morbidity (Study V) associated with dyslipidaemia in individuals with different glucose tolerance status. Data of 15 European cohorts with 19 476 subjects (I and III) and 13 Asian cohorts with 19 763 individuals (II and III) from 21 countries aged 25-89 years, without a prior history of diabetes at enrollment, representing Asian Indian, Chinese, European, Japanese and Mauritian Indian, were compared. The lipid-CVD relationship was studied in 14 European cohorts of 17 763 men and women which provided with follow-up data on vital status, with 871 CVD deaths occurred during the average 10-year follow-up (IV). The impact of dyslipidaemia on incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in persons with different glucose categories (V) was further evaluated in 6 European studies, with 9087 individuals free of CHD at baseline and 457 developed CHD during follow-up. Z-scores of each lipid component were used in the data analysis (I, II, IV and V) to reduce the differences in methodology between studies. Analyses of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusting for potential confounding factors. Within each glucose category, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were correlated with increasing levels of triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), TC to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio and non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C) (p<0.05 in most of the ethnic groups) and inversely associated with HDL-C (p<0.05 in some, but not all, of the populations). The association of lipids with 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG) followed a similar pattern as that for the FPG, except the stronger association of HDL-C with 2hPG. Compared with Central & Northern (C & N) Europeans, multivariable adjusted odd ratios (95% CIs) for having low HDL-C were 4.74 (4.19-5.37), 5.05 (3.88-6.56), 3.07 (2.15-4.40) and 2.37 (1.67-3.35) in Asian Indian men but 0.12 (0.09-0.16), 0.07 (0.04-0.13), 0.11 (0.07-0.20) and 0.16 (0.08-0.32) in Chinese men who had normoglycaemia, prediabetes, undiagnosed and diagnosed diabetes, respectively. Similar results were obtained for women. The prevalence of low HDL-C remained higher in Asian Indians than in others even in individuals with LDL-C < 3 mmol/l. Dyslipidaemia was associated with increased CVD mortality or CHD incidence in individuals with isolated fasting hyperglycaemia or IFG, but not in those with isolated post-load hyperglycaemia or IGT. In conclusion, hyperglycaemia is associated with adverse lipid profiles in Europeans and Asians without a prior history of diabetes. There are distinct patterns of lipid profiles associated with ethnicity regardless of the glucose levels, suggesting that ethnic-specific strategies and guidelines on risk assessment and prevention of CVD are required. Dyslipidaemia predicts CVD in either diabetic or non-diabetic individuals defined based on the fasting glucose criteria, but not on the 2-hour criteria. The findings may imply considering different management strategies in people with fasting or post-load hyperglycaemia.
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OBJECTIVE To refine a previously reported linkage peak for endometriosis on chromosome 10q26, and conduct follow-up analyses and a fine-mapping association study across the region to identify new candidate genes for endometriosis. DESIGN Case-control study. SETTING Academic research. PATIENT(S) Cases=3,223 women with surgically confirmed endometriosis; controls=1,190 women without endometriosis and 7,060 population samples. INTERVENTION(S) Analysis of 11,984 single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 10. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Allele frequency differences between cases and controls. RESULT(S) Linkage analyses on families grouped by endometriosis symptoms (primarily subfertility) provided increased evidence for linkage (logarithm of odds score=3.62) near a previously reported linkage peak. Three independent association signals were found at 96.59 Mb (rs11592737), 105.63 Mb (rs1253130), and 124.25 Mb (rs2250804). Analyses including only samples from linkage families supported the association at all three regions. However, only rs11592737 in the cytochrome P450 subfamily C (CYP2C19) gene was replicated in an independent sample of 2,079 cases and 7,060 population controls. CONCLUSION(S) The role of the CYP2C19 gene in conferring risk for endometriosis warrants further investigation.
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Parthenium weed, an annual herb native to tropical America, causes severe economic, human, and animal health and environmental impacts in Australia and in many countries in Asia, Africa, and the Pacific. There is little known about variation in reproductive output in naturally occurring populations of this weed. This information is vital to develop plant population models, devise management strategies to reduce seed output, and formulate parthenium weed pollen-induced human health (e.g., dermatitis and hay fever) risk assessment. Here, the variations in the number of capitula produced by the parthenium weed at two sites in Queensland, Australia, over a 4-yr period are reported. Under field conditions, parthenium weed produced up to 39,192 capitula per plant (> 156,768 seeds per plant), with majority of the plants (approximate to 75%) producing between 11 and 1,000 capitula, and less than 0.3% of the plants producing more than 10,000 capitula (> 40,000 seeds per plant). The number of capitula per plant in the field (297 +/- 22) was much lower than those reported from glasshouse and laboratory studies. Plant biomass contributed to 50 to 80% of the variation in capitulum production between plants within plots at each site, and weed density accounted for 62 to 73% of the variation in capitulum production between plots within each site. As plant size is directly correlated with reproductive output, plant size distributions in parthenium weed can be used to estimate effective population size. Information on variation in reproductive output will be used to implement management strategies to reduce parthenium weed seed output, resulting in reduced soil seed bank and weed seed spread.
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Cyanobacterial mass occurrences, also known as water blooms, have been associated with adverse health effects of both humans and animals. They can also be a burden to drinking water treatment facilities. Risk assessments of the blooms have generally focused on the cyanobacteria themselves and their toxins. However, heterotrophic bacteria thriving among cyanobacteria may also be responsible for many of the adverse health effects, but their role as the etiological agents of these health problems is poorly known. In addition, studies on the water purification efficiency of operating water treatment plants during cyanobacterial mass occurrences in their water sources are rare. In the present study, over 600 heterotrophic bacterial strains were isolated from natural freshwater, brackish water or from treated drinking water. The sampling sites were selected as having frequent cyanobacterial occurrences in the water bodies or in the water sources of the drinking water treatment plants. In addition, samples were taken from sites where cyanobacterial water blooms were surmised to have caused human health problems. The isolated strains represented bacteria from 57 different genera of the Gamma-, Alpha- or Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Flavobacteria, Sphingobacteria, Bacilli and Deinococci classes, based on their partial 16S rRNA sequences. Several isolates had no close relatives among previously isolated bacteria or cloned 16S rRNA genes of uncultivated bacteria. The results show that water blooms are associated with a diverse community of cultivable heterotrophic bacteria. Chosen subsets of the isolated strains were analysed for features such as their virulence gene content and possible effect on cyanobacterial growth. Of the putatively pathogenic haemolytic strains isolated in the study, the majority represented the genus Aeromonas. Therefore, the Aeromonas spp. strains isolated from water samples associated with adverse health effects were screened for the virulence gene types encoding for enterotoxins (ast, alt and act/aerA/hlyA), flagellin subunits (flaA/flaB), lipase (lip/pla/lipH3/alp-1) and elastase (ahyB) by PCR. The majority (90%) of the Aeromonas strains included one or more of the six screened Aeromonas virulence gene types. The most common gene type was act, which was present in 77% of the strains. The fla, ahyB and lip genes were present in 30 37% of the strains. The prevalence of the virulence genes implies that the Aeromonas may be a factor in some of the cyanobacterial associated health problems. Of the 183 isolated bacterial strains that were studied for possible effects on cyanobacterial growth, the majority (60%) either enhanced or inhibited growth of cyanobacteria. In most cases, they enhanced the growth, which implies mutualistic interactions. The results indicate that the heterotrophic bacteria have a role in the rise and fall of the cyanobacterial water blooms. The genetic and phenotypic characteristics and the ability to degrade cyanobacterial hepatotoxins of 13 previously isolated Betaproteobacteria strains, were also studied. The strains originated from Finnish lakes with frequent cyanobacterial occurrence. Tested strains degraded microcystins -LR and -YR and nodularin. The strains could not be assigned to any described bacterial genus or species based on their genetic or phenotypic features. On the basis of their characteristics a new genus and species Paucibacter toxinivorans was proposed for them. The water purification efficiency of the drinking water treatment processes during cyanobacterial water bloom in water source was assessed at an operating surface water treatment plant. Large phytoplankton, cyanobacterial hepatotoxins, endotoxins and cultivable heterotrophic bacteria were efficiently reduced to low concentrations, often below the detection limits. In contrast, small planktonic cells, including also possible bacterial cells, regularly passed though the water treatment. The passing cells may contribute to biofilm formation within the water distribution system, and therefore lower the obtained drinking water quality. The bacterial strains of this study offer a rich source of isolated strains for examining interactions between cyanobacteria and the heterotrophic bacteria associated with them. The degraders of cyanobacterial hepatotoxins could perhaps be utilized to assist the removal of the hepatotoxins during water treatment, whereas inhibitors of cyanobacterial growth might be useful in controlling cyanobacterial water blooms. The putative pathogenicity of the strains suggests that the health risk assessment of the cyanobacterial blooms should also cover the heterotrophic bacteria.
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Flying-foxes (pteropid bats) are the natural host of Hendra virus, a recently emerged zoonotic virus responsible for mortality or morbidity in horses and humans in Australia since 1994. Previous studies have suggested physiological and ecological risk factors for infection in flying-foxes, including physiological stress. However, little work has been done measuring and interpreting stress hormones in flying-foxes. Over a 12-month period, we collected pooled urine samples from underneath roosting flying-foxes, and urine and blood samples from captured individuals. Urine and plasma samples were assayed for cortisol using a commercially available enzyme immunoassay. We demonstrated a typical post-capture stress response in flying-foxes, established urine specific gravity as an attractive alternative to creatinine to correct urine concentration, and established population-level urinary cortisol ranges (and geometric means) for the four Australian species: Pteropus alecto 0.5–305.1 ng/mL (20.1 ng/mL); Pteropus conspicillatus 0.3–370.9 ng/mL (18.9 ng/mL); Pteropus poliocephalus 0.3–311.3 ng/mL (10.1 ng/mL); Pteropus scapulatus 5.2–205.4 ng/mL (40.7 ng/mL). Geometric means differed significantly except for P. alecto and P. conspicillatus. Our approach is methodologically robust, and has application both as a research or clinical tool for flying-foxes, and for other free-living colonial wildlife species
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Large cities depend heavily on their metro systems to reduce traffic congestion, which is particularly the case with Shanghai, the largest and most developed city in China. For the purposes of enhancing the possibility in quantitative risk assessment and promoting the safety management level in Shanghai metro, an adaptable metro operation incident database (MOID) is therefore presented for containing details of all incidents that have occurred in metro operation. Taking compatibility and simplicity into consideration, Microsoft Access 2010 software is used for the comprehensive and thorough design of the MOID. Based on MOID, statistical characteristics of incident, such as types, causes, time, and severity, are discovered and 24 accident precursors are identified in Shanghai metro. The processes are demonstrated to show how the MOID can be used to identify trends in the incidents that have occurred and to anticipate and prevent future accidents. In order to promote the application of MOID, an organizational structure is proposed from the four aspects of supervision, research, implementation, and manufacturer. This research would be conducive to safety risk analysis in identifying relevant precursors in safety management and assessing safety level as a qualitative tool.
Automatic detection of diabetic foot complications with infrared thermography by asymmetric analysis
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Early identification of diabetic foot complications and their precursors is essential in preventing their devastating consequences, such as foot infection and amputation. Frequent, automatic risk assessment by an intelligent telemedicine system might be feasible and cost effective. Infrared thermography is a promising modality for such a system. The temperature differences between corresponding areas on contralateral feet are the clinically significant parameters. This asymmetric analysis is hindered by (1) foot segmentation errors, especially when the foot temperature and the ambient temperature are comparable, and by (2) different shapes and sizes between contralateral feet due to deformities or minor amputations. To circumvent the first problem, we used a color image and a thermal image acquired synchronously. Foot regions, detected in the color image, were rigidly registered to the thermal image. This resulted in 97.8% ± 1.1% sensitivity and 98.4% ± 0.5% specificity over 76 high-risk diabetic patients with manual annotation as a reference. Nonrigid landmark-based registration with Bsplines solved the second problem. Corresponding points in the two feet could be found regardless of the shapes and sizes of the feet. With that, the temperature difference of the left and right feet could be obtained.
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Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide and the total number of cancer cases continues to increase. Many cancers, for example sinonasal cancer and lung cancer, have clear external risk factors and so are potentially preventable. The occurrence of sinonasal cancer is strongly associated with wood dust exposure and the main risk factor for lung cancer is tobacco smoking. Although the molecular mechanisms involved in lung carcinogenesis have been widely studied, very little is known about the molecular changes leading to sinonasal cancer. In this work, mutations in the tumour suppressor TP53 gene in cases of sinonasal cancer and lung cancer and the associations of these mutations with exposure factors were studied. In addition, another important mechanism in many cancers, inflammation, was explored by analyzing the expression of the inflammation related enzyme, COX-2, in sinonasal cancer. The results demonstrate that TP53 mutations are frequent in sinonasal cancer and lung cancer and in both cancers they are associated with exposure. In sinonasal cancer, the occurrence of TP53 mutation significantly increased in relation to long duration and high level of exposure to wood dust. Smoking was not associated with the overall occurrence of the TP53 mutation in sinonasal cancer, but was associated with multiple TP53 mutations. Furthermore, inflammation appears to play a part in sinonasal carcinogenesis as indicated by our results showing that the expression of COX-2 was associated with adenocarcinoma type of tumours, wood dust exposure and non-smoking. In lung cancer, we detected statistically significant associations between TP53 mutations and duration of smoking, gender and histology. We also found that patients with a tumour carrying a G to T transversion, a mutation commonly found in association with tobacco smoking, had a high level of smoking-related bulky DNA adducts in their non-tumorous lung tissue. Altogether, the information on molecular changes in exposure induced cancers adds to the observations from epidemiological studies and helps to understand the role and impact of different etiological factors, which in turn can be beneficial for risk assessment and prevention.
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TO THE EDITOR: Kinner and colleagues described the high proportion of deaths among recently released prisoners in Australia...
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OBJECTIVE We aimed to 1) describe the peripartum management of type 1 diabetes at an Australian teaching hospital and 2) discuss factors influencing the apparent transient insulin independence postpartum. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted a retrospective review of women with type 1 diabetes delivering singleton pregnancies from 2005 to 2010. Information was collected regarding demographics, medical history, peripartum management and outcome, and breast-feeding. To detect a difference in time to first postpartum blood glucose level (BGL) >8 mmol/L between women with an early (<4 h) and late (>12 h) requirement for insulin postpartum, with a power of 80% and a type 1 error of 0.05, at least 24 patients were required. RESULTS An intravenous insulin infusion was commenced in almost 95% of women. Univariate analysis showed that increased BMI at term, lower creatinine at term, longer duration from last dose of long- or intermediate-acting insulin, and discontinuation of an insulin infusion postpartum were associated with a shorter time to first requirement of insulin postpartum (P = 0.005, 0.026, 0.026, and <0.001, respectively). There was a correlation between higher doses of insulin commenced postpartum and number of out-of-range BGLs (r[36] = 0.358, P = 0.030) and hypoglycemia (r[36] = 0.434, P = 0.007). Almost 60% had at least one BGL <3.5 mmol/L between delivery and discharge. CONCLUSIONS Changes in the pharmacodynamic profile of insulin may contribute to the transient insulin independence sometimes observed postpartum in type 1 diabetes. A dose of 50–60% of the prepregnancy insulin requirement resulted in the lowest rate of hypoglycemia and glucose excursions. These results require validation in a larger, prospective study.
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This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.
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The Kachchh region of Gujarat, India bore the brunt of a disastrous earthquake of magnitude M-w=7.6 that occurred on January 26, 2001. The major cause of failure of various structures including earthen dams was noted to be the presence of liquefiable alluvium in the foundation soil. Results of back-analysis of failures of Chang, Tappar, Kaswati and Rudramata earth dams using pseudo-static limit equilibrium approach presented in this paper confirm that the presence of liquefiable layer contributed to lesser factors of safety leading to a base type of failure that was also observed in the field. Following the earthquake, earth dams have been rehabilitated by the concerned authority and it is imperative that the reconstructed sections of earth dams be reanalyzed. It is also increasingly realized that risk assessment of dams in view of the large-scale investment made and probabilistic analysis is necessary. In this study, it is demonstrated that the probabilistic approach when used in conjunction with deterministic approach helps in providing a rational solution for quantification of safety of the dam and in the estimation of risk associated with the dam construction. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.