Performance of balanced two-stage empirical predictors of realized cluster latent values from finite populations: A simulation study

Predictors of random effects are usually based on the popular mixed effects (ME) model developed under the assumption that the sample is obtained from a conceptual infinite population; such predictors are employed even when the actual population is finite. Two alternatives that incorporate the finite nature of the population are obtained from the superpopulation model proposed by Scott and Smith (1969. Estimation in multi-stage surveys. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64, 830-840) or from the finite population mixed model recently proposed by Stanek and Singer (2004. Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 1119-1130). Predictors derived under the latter model with the additional assumptions that all variance components are known and that within-cluster variances are equal have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the competitors based on either the ME or Scott and Smith`s models. As population variances are rarely known, we propose method of moment estimators to obtain empirical predictors and conduct a simulation study to evaluate their performance. The results suggest that the finite population mixed model empirical predictor is more stable than its competitors since, in terms of MSE, it is either the best or the second best and when second best, its performance lies within acceptable limits. When both cluster and unit intra-class correlation coefficients are very high (e.g., 0.95 or more), the performance of the empirical predictors derived under the three models is similar. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do neighbouring populations affect local population change over time?

This study covers a period when society changed from a pre-industrial agricultural society to a post-industrial service-producing society. Parallel with this social transformation, major population changes took place. In this study, we analyse how local population changes are affected by neighbouring populations. To do so we use the last 200 years of local population change that redistributed population in Sweden. We use literature to identify several different processes and spatial dependencies in the redistribution between a parish and its surrounding parishes. The analysis is based on a unique unchanged historical parish division, and we use an index of local spatial correlation to describe different kinds of spatial dependencies that have influenced the redistribution of the population. To control inherent time dependencies, we introduce a non-separable spatial temporal correlation model into the analysis of population redistribution. Hereby, several different spatial dependencies can be observed simultaneously over time. The main conclusions are that while local population changes have been highly dependent on the neighbouring populations in the 19th century, this spatial dependence have become insignificant already when two parishes is separated by 5 kilometres in the late 20th century. Another conclusion is that the time dependency in the population change is higher when the population redistribution is weak, as it currently is and as it was during the 19th century until the start of industrial revolution.

Medically Underserved Areas and Populations in Maine 2008

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2009/1022/thumbnail.jpg

Detecting cell assemblies in large neuronal populations

Recent progress in the technology for single unit recordings has given the neuroscientific community theopportunity to record the spiking activity of large neuronal populations. At the same pace, statistical andmathematical tools were developed to deal with high-dimensional datasets typical of such recordings.A major line of research investigates the functional role of subsets of neurons with significant co-firingbehavior: the Hebbian cell assemblies. Here we review three linear methods for the detection of cellassemblies in large neuronal populations that rely on principal and independent component analysis.Based on their performance in spike train simulations, we propose a modified framework that incorpo-rates multiple features of these previous methods. We apply the new framework to actual single unitrecordings and show the existence of cell assemblies in the rat hippocampus, which typically oscillate attheta frequencies and couple to different phases of the underlying field rhythm

Source populations in coastal crabs: parameters affecting egg production

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Water quality and plankton populations in an earthen polyculture pond

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic differentiation between sympatric populations of Bacillus cereus and Bacillus thuringiensis

Little is known about genetic exchanges in natural populations of bacteria of the spore-forming Bacillus cereus group, because no population genetics studies have been performed with local sympatric populations. We isolated strains of Bacillus thuringiensis and B. cereus from small samples of soil collected at the same time from two separate geographical sites, one within the forest and the other at the edge of the forest. A total of 100 B. cercus and 98 B. thuringiensis strains were isolated and characterized by electrophoresis to determine allelic composition at nine enzymatic loci. We observed genetic differentiation between populations of B. cereus and B. thuringiensis. Populations of a given Bacillus species-B. thuringiensis or B. cereus-were genetically more similar to each other than to populations of the other Bacillus species. Hemolytic activity provided further evidence of this genetic divergence, which remained evident even if putative clones were removed from the data set. Our results suggest that the rate of gene flow was higher between strains of the same species, but that exchanges between B. cereus and B. thuringiensis were nonetheless possible. Linkage disequilibrium analysis revealed sufficient recombination for B. cereus populations to be considered panmictic units. In B. thuringiensis, the balance between clonal proliferation and recombination seemed to depend on location. Overall, our data indicate that it is not important for risk assessment purposes to determine whether B. cereus and B. thuringiensis belong to a single or two species. Assessment of the biosafety of pest control based on B. thuringiensis requires evaluation of the extent of genetic exchange between strains in realistic natural conditions.

A comparative study of population traits between two South American populations of the striped-legged hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic diversity of natural populations of Anemopaegma arvense (Bignoniaceae) in the Cerrado of São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fecundity and pre-imaginal period of Chrysoperla externa (hagen) (neuroptera: chrysopidae) under different populations and laboratory generations

The lacewings appear in many agroecosystems, preying several species of agricultural pests. They have great search capability, high voracity, high reproductive potential and are easily maintained in laboratory conditions. In laboratory rearing, to avoid problems in the mass production are recommended adjustments in the type and quality of prey to be used in order to obtain individuals with desirable characteristics. It is necessary special care with the laboratory populations, avoiding problems from inbreeding. Larvae were reared individually in Petri dishes (9.0 cm diameter) and fed with eggs of Sitotroga cerealella (Olivier, 1789) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), in the amount of 25 mg / larva, while the adults were kept in PVC cylindrical cages (10 cm x 30 cm). Thus, the study analyzed the influence of the size of the population of Chrysoperla externa (Hagen, 1861) (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) on the pre-imaginal period (egg to adult) and reproductive capacity of this specie come from different populations and generations of laboratory. To this end, we used two populations, one of Jaboticabal (F-8 and F-21) and one of Piracicaba (F-6 and F-15), and subpopulations of 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 couples, analyzing the incubation of eggs and the number of eggs per female in each population, generation and subpopulation. The pre-imaginal period (egg to adult) and the number of eggs per female of C. externa are influenced by the generation and the number of founding individuals, being these parameters favored when laboratory populations are established with the largest number of couples.

Cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) infestation in quarantined marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) populations

Marsh deer (Blastocenrs dichotomus) were captured for a research progam in Brazil and maintained in quarantine stations. After 60 days, fleas were detected on animals and identified as Ctenocephalides felis felis. Elimination of the infestation was difficult. Animal treatment with a fipronil-based compound was effective, and subsequently captured animals were treated prophylactically. Some animals remained infested, and some died from the infestation.

Genetics of resistance to powdery mildew (Microsphaera diffusa) in Brazilian soybean populations

Crosses between resistant and susceptible soybean cultivars were performed and the F2 populations were obtained to study the inheritance of soybean resistance to powdery mildew and to estimate the number and action of genes related to resistance. The reaction to powdery mildew was studied in a greenhouse and pots carrying plants with symptoms were distributed among the pots carrying the genotypes to be tested as a source of inoculum. Individual plants were scored according to the method of Yorinori (1997), with modifications, and classified as resistant or susceptible. The results showed that adult soybeans plants can present resistance to powdery mildew, which is controlled by one major gene with a dominant effect.

Microbial populations and the activity of the soil under agricultural and agricultural-pastoral systems

The effects of agricultural-pastoral and tillage practices on soil microbial populations and activities have not been systematically investigated. The effect of no-tillage (NT), no-tillage agricultural-pastoral integrated systems (NT-I) and conventional tillage (CT) at soil depths of 0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm on the microbial populations (bacteria and fungi), biomass-C, potential nitrification, urease and protease activities, total organic matter and total N contents were investigated. The crops used were soybean (in NT, NT-I and CT systems), corn (in NT and NT-I systems) and Tanner grass (Brachiaria sp.) (in NT-I system); a forest system was used as a control. Urease and protease activities, biomass-C and the content of organic matter and total N were higher (p < 0.05) in the forest soil than the other soils. Potential nitrification was significantly higher in the NT-I system in comparison with the other systems. Bacteria numbers were similar in all systems. Fungi counts were similar in the CT and forest, but both were higher than in NT. All of these variables were dependent on the organic matter content and decreased (p < 0.05) from the upper soil layer to the deeper soil layers. These results indicate that the no-tillage agricultural-pasture-integrated systems may be useful for soil conservation.

Molecular characterization of bacterial populations of different soils

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)