Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

A prime-boost immunisation regimen using recombinant BCG and Pr55 gag virus-like particle vaccines based on HIV type 1 subtype C successfully elicits Gag-specific responses in baboons

Mycobacterium bovis BCG is considered an attractive live bacterial vaccine vector. In this study, we investigated the immune response of baboons to a primary vaccination with recombinant BCG (rBCG) constructs expressing the gag gene from a South African HIV-1 subtype C isolate, and a boost with HIV-1 subtype C Pr55 gag virus-like particles (Gag VLPs). Using an interferon enzyme-linked immunospot assay, we show that although these rBCG induced only a weak or an undetectable HIV-1 Gag-specific response on their own, they efficiently primed for a Gag VLP boost, which strengthened and broadened the immune responses. These responses were predominantly CD8+ T cell-mediated and recognised similar epitopes as those targeted by humans with early HIV-1 subtype C infection. In addition, a Gag-specific humoral response was elicited. These data support the development of HIV-1 vaccines based on rBCG and Pr55 gag VLPs. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conductometric gas sensors based on nanostructured WO3 thin films

Nanostructured WO3 thin films have been prepared by thermal evaporation to detect hydrogen at low temperatures. The influence of heat treatment on the physical, chemical and electronic properties of these films has been investigated. The films were annealed at 400oC for 2 hours in air. AFM and TEM analysis revealed that the as-deposited WO3 film is high amorphous and made up of cluster of particles. Annealing at 400oC for 2 hours in air resulted in very fine grain size of the order of 5 nm and porous structure. GIXRD and Raman analysis revealed that annealing improved the crystallinity of WO3 film. Gas sensors based on annealed WO3 films have shown a high response towards various concentrations (10-10000 ppm) H2 at an operating temperature of 150oC. The improved sensing performance at low operating temperature is due to the optimum physical, chemical and electronic properties achieved in the WO3 film through annealing.

Institutional and individual labor market discrimination based on hukou status : an artefactual field experiment

We study discrimination based on the hukou system that segregates citizens in groups of migrants and locals in urban China. We use an artefactual field experiment with a labor market framing. We recruit workers on their real labor market as experimental participants and investigate if official discrimination motivates individual discrimination based on hukou status. In our experimental results we observe discrimination based on the hukou characteristic: however, statistical discrimination does not seem to be the source of this, as status is exogeneous for our participants and migrants and locals behave similarly. Furthermore, discrimination increases between two experimental frameworks when motives for statistical discrimination are removed.

The phylogeny of Ureaplasma urealyticum based on the mba gene fragment

Sequencing of mba gene fragments of reference strains of Ureaplasma urealyticum serovars 1, 3, 6, 14, in addition to 33 clinical U. urealyticum isolates is reported. A phylogenetic tree deduced from an alignment of these sequences clearly demonstrates two major clusters (confidence limit 100%), which equate to the parvo and T960 biovars, and five types which we have designated mba 1, 3, 6, 8 and X. These relationships are supported by bootstrap analysis. Polymorphisms within the mba fragment of types mba 1, 3, and 6 were used to define nine subtypes (mba 1a, 1b, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d, 3e, 6a, and 6b) thus facilitating high resolution typing of U. urealyticum. Inclusion of the reference strains for serovars 1, 3, 6, and 8 in the mba typing scheme showed that the results of this analysis are broadly consistent with currently accepted serotyping. In addition a ure gene fragment from nine of the clinical isolates was amplified and sequenced. Comparisons of the sequences clearly distinguished the two biovars of U. urealyticum; however this fragment was invariant within the parvo biovar. This study has shown that the sequence of the mba can reveal the fine details of the relationships between U. urealyticum isolates and also supports the significant evolutionary gap between the two biovars.

Fiber Bragg grating strain modulation based on nonlinear string transverse force amplifier

The only effective method of Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) strain modulation has been by changing the distance between its two fixed ends. We demonstrate an alternative being more sensitive to force based on the nonlinear amplification relationship between a transverse force applied to a stretched string and its induced axial force. It may improve the sensitivity and size of an FBG force sensor, reduce the number of FBGs needed for multi-axial force monitoring, and control the resonant frequency of an FBG accelerometer.

Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Microscopic cooperative traffic based on NGSIM data

The deployment of new emerging technologies, such as cooperative systems, allows the traffic community to foresee relevant improvements in terms of traffic safety and efficiency. Vehicles are able to communicate on the local traffic state in real time, which could result in an automatic and therefore better reaction to the mechanism of traffic jam formation. An upstream single hop radio broadcast network can improve the perception of each cooperative driver within radio range and hence the traffic stability. The impact of a cooperative law on traffic congestion appearance is investigated, analytically and through simulation. Ngsim field data is used to calibrate the Optimal Velocity with Relative Velocity (OVRV) car following model and the MOBIL lane-changing model is implemented. Assuming that congestion can be triggered either by a perturbation in the instability domain or by a critical lane changing behavior, the calibrated car following behavior is used to assess the impact of a microscopic cooperative law on abnormal lane changing behavior. The cooperative law helps reduce and delay traffic congestion as it increases traffic flow stability.

A New DER coordination in LV network based on the concept of distributed control

Given the paradigm of smart grid as the promising backbone for future network, this paper uses this paradigm to propose a new coordination approach for LV network based on distributed control algorithm. This approach divides the LV network into hierarchical communities where each community is controlled by a control agent. Different level of communication has been proposed for this structure to control the network in different operation modes.

Probabilistic cable rating based on cable thermal environment studying

This paper describes a new approach to establish the probabilistic cable rating based on cable thermal environment studies. Knowledge of cable parameters has been well established. However the environment in which the cables are buried is not so well understood. Research in Queensland University of Technology has been aimed at obtaining and analysing actual daily field values of thermal resistivity and diffusivity of the soil around power cables. On-line monitoring systems have been developed and installed with a data logger system and buried spheres that use an improved technique to measure thermal resistivity and diffusivity over a short period. Based on the long-term continuous field data for more than 4 years, a probabilistic approach is developed to establish the correlation between the measured field thermal resistivity values and rainfall data from weather bureau records. Hence, a probabilistic cable rating can be established based on monthly probabilistic distribution of thermal resistivity

Hybrid light-emitting diodes based on ZnO nanowires

ZnO is a wide band-gap semiconductor that has several desirable properties for optoelectronic devices. With its large exciton binding energy of ~60 meV, ZnO is a promising candidate for high stability, room-temperature luminescent and lasing devices [1]. Ultraviolet light-emitting diodes (LEDs) based on ZnO homojunctions had been reported [2,3], while preparing stable p-type ZnO is still a challenge. An alternative way is to use other p-type semiconductors, ether inorganic or organic, to form heterojunctions with the naturally n-type ZnO. The crystal structure of wurtzite ZnO can be described as Zn and O atomic layers alternately stacked along the [0001] direction. Because of the fastest growth rate over the polar (0001) facet, ZnO crystals tend to grow into one-dimensional structures, such as nanowires and nanobelts. Since the first report of ZnO nanobelts in 2001 [4], ZnO nanostructures have been particularly studied for their potential applications in nano-sized devices. Various growth methods have been developed for growing ZnO nanostructures, such as chemical vapor deposition (CVD), Metal-organic CVD (MOCVD), aqueous growth and electrodeposition [5]. Based on the successful synthesis of ZnO nanowires/nanorods, various types of hybrid light-emitting diodes (LEDs) were made. Inorganic p-type semiconductors, such as GaN, Si and SiC, have been used as substrates to grown ZnO nanorods/nanowires for making LEDs. GaN is an ideal material that matches ZnO not only in the crystal structure but also in the energy band levels. However, to prepare Mg-doped p-GaN films via epitaxial growth is still costly. In comparison, the organic semiconductors are inexpensive and have many options to select, for a large variety of p-type polymer or small-molecule semiconductors are now commercially available. The organic semiconductor has the limitation of durability and environmental stability. Many polymer semiconductors are susceptible to damage by humidity or mere exposure to oxygen in the air. Also the carrier mobilities of polymer semiconductors are generally lower than the inorganic semiconductors. However, the combination of polymer semiconductors and ZnO nanostructures opens the way for making flexible LEDs. There are few reports on the hybrid LEDs based on ZnO/polymer heterojunctions, some of them showed the characteristic UV electroluminescence (EL) of ZnO. This chapter reports recent progress of the hybrid LEDs based on ZnO nanowires and other inorganic/organic semiconductors. We provide an overview of the ZnO-nanowire-based hybrid LEDs from the perspectives of the device configuration, growth methods of ZnO nanowires and the selection of p-type semiconductors. Also the device performances and remaining issues are presented.

Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Adaptive stepsize based on control theory for stochastic differential equations

The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focused recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the "best" choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy.

Time-aware topic recommendation based on micro-blogs

Topic recommendation can help users deal with the information overload issue in micro-blogging communities. This paper proposes to use the implicit information network formed by the multiple relationships among users, topics and micro-blogs, and the temporal information of micro-blogs to find semantically and temporally relevant topics of each topic, and to profile users' time-drifting topic interests. The Content based, Nearest Neighborhood based and Matrix Factorization models are used to make personalized recommendations. The effectiveness of the proposed approaches is demonstrated in the experiments conducted on a real world dataset that collected from Twitter.com.

Continuum mechanics modelling of microfilament networks with different architectures based on molecular investigation of single F-actin

The actin microfilament plays a critical role in many cellular processes including embryonic development, wound healing, immune response, and tissue development. It is commonly organized in the form of networks whose mechanical properties change with changes in their architecture due to cell evolution processes. This paper presents a new nonlinear continuum mechanics model of single filamentous actin (F-actin) that is based on nanoscale molecular simulations. Following this continuum model of the single F-actin, mechanical properties of differently architected lamellipodia are studied. The results provide insight that can contribute to the understanding of the cell edge motions of living cells.