A dwelling-level investigation into the physical and socio-economic drivers of domestic energy consumption in England

The UK Government's Department for Energy and Climate Change has been investigating the feasibility of developing a national energy efficiency data framework covering both domestic and non-domestic buildings. Working closely with the Energy Saving Trust and energy suppliers, the aim is to develop a data framework to monitor changes in energy efficiency, develop and evaluate programmes and improve information available to consumers. Key applications of the framework are to understand trends in built stock energy use, identify drivers and evaluate the success of different policies. For energy suppliers, it could identify what energy uses are growing, in which sectors and why. This would help with market segmentation and the design of products. For building professionals, it could supplement energy audits and modelling of end-use consumption with real data and support the generation of accurate and comprehensive benchmarks. This paper critically examines the results of the first phase of work to construct a national energy efficiency data-framework for the domestic sector focusing on two specific issues: (a) drivers of domestic energy consumption in terms of the physical nature of the dwellings and socio-economic characteristics of occupants and (b) the impact of energy efficiency measures on energy consumption.

Determination of a lower bound on Earth’s climate sensitivity

Transient and equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's climate has been calculated using global temperature, forcing and heating rate data for the period 1970–2010. We have assumed increased long-wave radiative forcing in the period due to the increase of the long-lived greenhouse gases. By assuming the change in aerosol forcing in the period to be zero, we calculate what we consider to be lower bounds to these sensitivities, as the magnitude of the negative aerosol forcing is unlikely to have diminished in this period. The radiation imbalance necessary to calculate equilibrium sensitivity is estimated from the rate of ocean heat accumulation as 0.37±0.03W m^−2 (all uncertainty estimates are 1−σ). With these data, we obtain best estimates for transient climate sensitivity 0.39±0.07K (W m^−2)^−1 and equilibrium climate sensitivity 0.54±0.14K (W m^−2)^−1, equivalent to 1.5±0.3 and 2.0±0.5K (3.7W m^−2)^−1, respectively. The latter quantity is equal to the lower bound of the ‘likely’ range for this quantity given by the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report. The uncertainty attached to the lower-bound equilibrium sensitivity permits us to state, within the assumptions of this analysis, that the equilibrium sensitivity is greater than 0.31K (W m^−2)^−1, equivalent to 1.16K(3.7W m^−2)^−1, at the 95% confidence level.

Biased oviposition and biased survival together help resolve a fig-wasp conflict

We report evidence that helps resolve two competing explanations for stability in the mutualism between Ficus racemosa fig trees and the Ceratosolen fusciceps wasps that pollinate them. The wasps lay eggs in the tree's ovules, with each wasp larva developing at the expense of a fig seed. Upon maturity, the female wasps collect pollen and disperse to a new tree, continuing the cycle. Fig fitness is increased by producing both seeds and female wasps, whereas short-term wasp fitness increases only with more wasps, thereby resulting in a conflict of interests. We show experimentally that wasps exploit the inner layers of ovules first (the biased oviposition explanation), which is consistent with optimal-foraging theory. As oviposition increases, seeds in the middle layer are replaced on a one-to-one basis by pollinator offspring, which is also consistent with biased oviposition. Finally, in the outer layer of ovules, seeds disappear but are only partially replaced by pollinator offspring, which suggests high wasp mortality (the biased survival or ‘unbeatable seeds’ explanation). Our results therefore suggest that both biased oviposition and biased survival ensure seed production, thereby stabilizing the mutualism. We further argue that biased oviposition can maintain biased survival by selecting against wasp traits to overcome fig defenses. Finally, we report evidence suggesting that F. racemosa balances seed and wasp production at the level of the tree. Because figs are probably selected to allocate equally to male and female function, a 1:1 seed:wasp ratio suggests that fig trees are in control of the mutualism.

The cyclical relations between traded property stock prices and aggregate time-series

This paper examines the cyclical regularities of macroeconomic, financial and property market aggregates in relation to the property stock price cycle in the UK. The Hodrick Prescott filter is employed to fit a long-term trend to the raw data, and to derive the short-term cycles of each series. It is found that the cycles of consumer expenditure, total consumption per capita, the dividend yield and the long-term bond yield are moderately correlated, and mainly coincident, with the property price cycle. There is also evidence that the nominal and real Treasury Bill rates and the interest rate spread lead this cycle by one or two quarters, and therefore that these series can be considered leading indicators of property stock prices. This study recommends that macroeconomic and financial variables can provide useful information to explain and potentially to forecast movements of property-backed stock returns in the UK.

On the radius of centrality in evolving communication networks

In this article, we investigate how the choice of the attenuation factor in an extended version of Katz centrality influences the centrality of the nodes in evolving communication networks. For given snapshots of a network, observed over a period of time, recently developed communicability indices aim to identify the best broadcasters and listeners (receivers) in the network. Here we explore the attenuation factor constraint, in relation to the spectral radius (the largest eigenvalue) of the network at any point in time and its computation in the case of large networks. We compare three different communicability measures: standard, exponential, and relaxed (where the spectral radius bound on the attenuation factor is relaxed and the adjacency matrix is normalised, in order to maintain the convergence of the measure). Furthermore, using a vitality-based measure of both standard and relaxed communicability indices, we look at the ways of establishing the most important individuals for broadcasting and receiving of messages related to community bridging roles. We compare those measures with the scores produced by an iterative version of the PageRank algorithm and illustrate our findings with two examples of real-life evolving networks: the MIT reality mining data set, consisting of daily communications between 106 individuals over the period of one year, a UK Twitter mentions network, constructed from the direct \emph{tweets} between 12.4k individuals during one week, and a subset the Enron email data set.

Anthropogenic natal environmental effects on life histories in a wild bird population

Recent work suggests that the environment experienced in early life can alter life histories in wild populations [1, 2, 3, 4 and 5], but our understanding of the processes involved remains limited [6 and 7]. Since anthropogenic environmental change is currently having a major impact on wild populations [8], this raises the possibility that life histories may be influenced by human activities that alter environmental conditions in early life. Whether this is the case and the processes involved remain unexplored in wild populations. Using 23 years of longitudinal data on the Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus), a tropical forest specialist, we found that females born in territories affected by anthropogenic habitat change shifted investment in reproduction to earlier in life at the expense of late life performance. They also had lower survival rates as young adults. This shift in life history strategy appears to be adaptive, because fitness was comparable to that of other females experiencing less anthropogenic modification in their natal environment. Our results suggest that human activities can leave a legacy on wild birds through natal environmental effects. Whether these legacies have a detrimental effect on populations will depend on life history responses and the extent to which these reduce individual fitness.

Agricultural commodity markets : reference point for the real value of a currency

Using monthly time-series data 1999-2013, the paper shows that markets for agricultural commodities provide a yardstick for real purchasing power, and thus a reference point for the real value of fiat currencies. The daily need for each adult to consume about 2800 food calories is universal; data from FAO food balance sheets confirm that the world basket of food consumed daily is non-volatile in comparison to the volatility of currency exchange rates, and so the replacement cost of food consumed provides a consistent indicator of economic value. Food commodities are storable for short periods, but ultimately perishable, and this exerts continual pressure for markets to clear in the short term; moreover, food calories can be obtained from a very large range of foodstuffs, and so most households are able to use arbitrage to select a near optimal weighting of quantities purchased. The paper proposes an original method to enable a standard of value to be established, definable in physical units on the basis of actual worldwide consumption of food goods, with an illustration of the method.

Effects of the brief viewing of emotional stimuli on understanding of insight solutions

In the present study, we examined whether and how brief viewing of positive and negative images influences subsequent understanding of solutions to insight problems. For each trial, participants were first presented with an insight problem and then briefly viewed a task-irrelevant positive, negative, or neutral image (660 ms), which was followed by the solution to the problem. In our behavioral study (Study 1), participants were faster to report that they understood the solutions following positive images, and were slower to report it following negative images. A subsequent fMRI study (Study 2) revealed enhanced activity in the angular gyrus and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) while viewing solutions following positive, as compared with negative, images. In addition, greater activation of the angular gyrus was associated with more rapid understanding of the solutions. These results suggest that brief viewing of positive images enhances activity in the angular gyrus and MPFC, which results in facilitation of understanding solutions to insight problems.

Insecure attachment during infancy predicts greater amygdala volumes in early adulthood

Background The quality of the early environment is hypothesized to be an influence on morphological development in key neural areas related to affective responding, but direct evidence to support this possibility is limited. In a 22-year longitudinal study, we examined hippocampal and amygdala volumes in adulthood in relation to early infant attachment status, an important indicator of the quality of the early caregiving environment. Methods Participants (N = 59) were derived from a prospective longitudinal study of the impact of maternal postnatal depression on child development. Infant attachment status (24 Secure; 35 Insecure) was observed at 18 months of age, and MRI assessments were completed at 22 years. Results In line with hypotheses, insecure versus secure infant attachment status was associated with larger amygdala volumes in young adults, an effect that was not accounted for by maternal depression history. We did not find early infant attachment status to predict hippocampal volumes. Conclusions Common variations in the quality of early environment are associated with gross alterations in amygdala morphology in the adult brain. Further research is required to establish the neural changes that underpin the volumetric differences reported here, and any functional implications.

Public real estate and the term structure of interest rates: a cross-country study

Using a variation of the Nelson-Siegel term structure model we examine the sensitivity of real estate securities in six key global markets to unexpected changes in the level, slop and curvature of the yield curve. Our results confirm the time-sensitive nature of the exposure and sensitivity to interest rates and highlight the importance of considering the entire term structure of interest rates. One issue that is of particular of interest is that despite the 2007-9 financial crisis the importance of unanticipated interest rate risk weakens post 2003. Although the analysis does examine a range of markets the empirical analysis is unable to provide definitive evidence as to whether REIT and property-company markets display heightened or reduced exposure.