A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Offline consolidation in implicit sequence learning

The goal of this study was to investigate offline memory consolidation with regard to general motor skill learning and implicit sequence-specific learning. We trained young adults on a serial reaction time task with a retention interval of either 24 hours (Experiment 1) or 1 week (Experiment 2) between two sessions. We manipulated sequence complexity (deterministic vs. probabilistic) and motor responses (unimanual or vs. bimanual). We found no evidence of offline memory consolidation for sequencespecific learning with either interval (in the sense of no deterioration over the interval but no further improvement either). However, we did find evidence of offline enhancement of general motor skill learning with both intervals, independent of kind of sequence or kind of response. These results suggest that general motor skill learning, but not sequence-specific learning, appears to be enhanced during offline intervals in implicit sequence learning.

Choosing the Path of Austerity: How Policy Coalitions Shape Welfare-policy Choices in Periods of Fiscal Consolidation

In general, fiscal adjustments are associated with significant reductions in social spending. Hence, the welfare state is not spared from austerity. Because the welfare state is still central to party competition, this is electorally risky. The paper addresses the following questions: Do left parties differ from their centrist and rightist competitors in the design of austerity measures? And does government type has an impact on the extent to which austerity policies rely on social spending cuts? By comparing 17 OECD countries between 1982 and 2009 we show that if governments embark on a path to austerity, their ideology does not have a significant effect on the magnitude of welfare state retrenchment. However, if major opposition parties and interest groups rally against social spending cuts, a broad pro-reform coalition is a crucial precondition for large fiscal consolidation programs to rely on substantial cuts to social security.

Estimating Diagnostic Test Accuracies for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae Accounting for the Complexities of Population Structure in Food Animals

For swine dysentery, which is caused by Brachyspira hyodysenteriae infection and is an economically important disease in intensive pig production systems worldwide, a perfect or error-free diagnostic test ("gold standard") is not available. In the absence of a gold standard, Bayesian latent class modelling is a well-established methodology for robust diagnostic test evaluation. In contrast to risk factor studies in food animals, where adjustment for within group correlations is both usual and required for good statistical practice, diagnostic test evaluation studies rarely take such clustering aspects into account, which can result in misleading results. The aim of the present study was to estimate test accuracies of a PCR originally designed for use as a confirmatory test, displaying a high diagnostic specificity, and cultural examination for B. hyodysenteriae. This estimation was conducted based on results of 239 samples from 103 herds originating from routine diagnostic sampling. Using Bayesian latent class modelling comprising of a hierarchical beta-binomial approach (which allowed prevalence across individual herds to vary as herd level random effect), robust estimates for the sensitivities of PCR and culture, as well as for the specificity of PCR, were obtained. The estimated diagnostic sensitivity of PCR (95% CI) and culture were 73.2% (62.3; 82.9) and 88.6% (74.9; 99.3), respectively. The estimated specificity of the PCR was 96.2% (90.9; 99.8). For test evaluation studies, a Bayesian latent class approach is well suited for addressing the considerable complexities of population structure in food animals.

Sonographic patterns of lung consolidation in mechanically ventilated patients with and without ventilator-associated pneumonia: A prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE Thoracic ultrasound (TUS) has been successfully used in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia. Little is known about its diagnostic potential in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The purpose of this study was to systematically describe the morphology and temporal changes of sonographic patterns in mechanically ventilated patients and to evaluate the diagnostic performance characteristics of TUS-based VAP diagnoses. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients who were placed on invasive ventilation for reasons other than pneumonia and who were considered at risk for the development of VAP received daily TUS examinations while being closely monitored for the development of pneumonia. RESULTS Fifty-seven patients were studied. The incidence of VAP was 21.1%. Sonographic patterns of reduced or absent lung aeration were found in 64.2% of examinations. The sonographic pattern of lung consolidation with either dynamic or static air bronchograms was 100% sensitive and 60% specific for VAP in those patients who developed clinical signs and symptoms compatible with pneumonia. The pretest and posttest probabilities were 0.38 and 0.6, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Sonographic patterns of abnormal aeration are frequently observed in mechanically ventilated patients. If sonographic lung consolidation with either static or dynamic air bronchograms is absent, VAP is highly unlikely. The presence of these sonographic patterns in patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of pneumonia significantly increases the probability of VAP.

Consolidation of first remission using radioimmunotherapy with yttrium-90-ibritumomab-tiuxetan in adult patients with Burkitt lymphoma

The addition of anti-CD20 antibodies to high intensity polychemotherapy regimens has improved response and survival rates in newly diagnosed patients with Burkitt lymphoma (BL). However, the role of additional anti-CD20 directed radioimmunotherapy for consolidation of first remission (CR1) has not been reported so far in BL patients receiving rituximab during first-line treatment. We compared five BL patients receiving Y-90-IT radioimmunotherapy consolidation in CR1 to 22 consecutive BL patients without consolidation. We observed that Y-90-IT treatment was associated with clinically relevant myelosuppression. After a median follow-up of 50 months, none of the patients with Y-90-IT treatment relapsed, and no patient died. In contrast, one patient (4.5%) in the non-Y-90-IT group relapsed (50 months-PFS 95.5%; p = 0.6336), and one patient died (50 months-OS 95.5%; p = 0.6171). In conclusion, our data suggest that survival rates are excellent and equal in rituximab pretreated BL patients with or without Y-90-IT consolidation in first remission.

Habituation and consolidation of prospective memory over a week: An ERP study

Prospective memory (ProM) is the ability to remember and perform an intention in the future. If a prospective memory task is to be performed only once, it is episodic. If it is repeated, then it becomes habitual. Thus, with repetition, a task changes from episodic to habitual. The goal of this study was to investigate the transition from episodic to habitual prospective memory with event-related potentials (ERP). The ProM task was to respond to a target word which was embedded in an ongoing lexical decision task. 40 ProM trials were administered in each of two sessions that were separated by a week. The results revealed a behavioural consolidation effect with increased ProM performance after one week. The ERP-analyses showed that when the task became more habitual a difference occurred in a time-window between 450-650 ms post-stimulus in an ERP-component. In addition, a covariance analysis revealed that this transition is continued in the second session. These results demonstrate that the transition from episodic to habitual prospective memory is long-lasting and continuous.