915 resultados para conservative scenario


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Introduction: Within the context of road safety it is important that workload (the portion of a driver’s resources expended to perform a task) remains at a manageable level, preventing overloading and consequently performance decrements. Motorcyclists are over represented in crash statistics where the vehicle operator has a positive, low blood alcohol concentration (BAC) (e.g., 0.05%). The NASA task load index (NASA-TLX) comprises sub-scales that purportedly assess different aspects of subjective workload. It was hypothesized that, compared to a zero BAC condition, low BACs would be associated with increases in workload ratings, and decrements in riding performance. Method: Forty participants (20 novice, 20 experienced) completed simulated motorcycle rides in urban and rural scenarios under low dose BAC conditions (0.00%, 0.02%, 0.05% BAC), while completing a safety relevant peripheral detection task (PDT). Six sub-scales of the NASA-TLX were completed after each ride. Riding performance was assessed using standard deviation of lateral position (SDLP). Hazard perception was assessed by response time to the PDT. Results: Riding performance and hazard perception were affected by alcohol. There was a significant increase in SDLP in the urban scenario and of PDT reaction time in the rural scenario under 0.05% BAC compared to 0.00% BAC. Overall NASA-TLX score increased at 0.02% and 0.05% BAC in the urban environment only, with a trend for novices to rate workload higher than experienced riders. There was a significant main effect of sub-scale on workload ratings in both the urban and rural scenarios. Discussion: 0.05% BAC was associated with decrements in riding performance in the urban environment, decrements in hazard perception in the rural environment, and increases in overall ratings of subjective workload in the urban environment. The workload sub-scales of the NASA-TLX appear to be measuring distinct aspects of motorcycle riding-related workload. Issues of workload and alcohol impaired riding performance are discussed.

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The ability of the technique of large-amplitude Fourier transformed (FT) ac voltammetry to facilitate the quantitative evaluation of electrode processes involving electron transfer and catalytically coupled chemical reactions has been evaluated. Predictions derived on the basis of detailed simulations imply that the rate of electron transfer is crucial, as confirmed by studies on the ferrocenemethanol (FcMeOH)-mediated electrocatalytic oxidation of ascorbic acid. Thus, at glassy carbon, gold, and boron-doped diamond electrodes, the introduction of the coupled electrocatalytic reaction, while producing significantly enhanced dc currents, does not affect the ac harmonics. This outcome is as expected if the FcMeOH (0/+) process remains fully reversible in the presence of ascorbic acid. In contrast, the ac harmonic components available from FT-ac voltammetry are predicted to be highly sensitive to the homogeneous kinetics when an electrocatalytic reaction is coupled to a quasi-reversible electron-transfer process. The required quasi-reversible scenario is available at an indium tin oxide electrode. Consequently, reversible potential, heterogeneous charge-transfer rate constant, and charge-transfer coefficient values of 0.19 V vs Ag/AgCl, 0.006 cm s (-1) and 0.55, respectively, along with a second-order homogeneous chemical rate constant of 2500 M (-1) s (-1) for the rate-determining step in the catalytic reaction were determined by comparison of simulated responses and experimental voltammograms derived from the dc and first to fourth ac harmonic components generated at an indium tin oxide electrode. The theoretical concepts derived for large-amplitude FT ac voltammetry are believed to be applicable to a wide range of important solution-based mediated electrocatalytic reactions.

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Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

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Cold-formed steel Lipped Channel Beams (LCB) with web openings are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in building structures. Shear behaviour of these beams is more complicated and their shear capacities are considerably reduced by the presence of web openings. Hence detailed numerical and experimental studies of simply supported LCBs under a mid-span load with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Experimental and numerical results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel structures design codes are very conservative. Improved design equations were therefore proposed for the shear strength of LCBs with web openings based on both experimental and numerical results. This research showed a significant reduction in shear capacities of LCBs when large web openings are included for the purpose of locating building services. A cost effective method of eliminating such detrimental effects of large circular web openings was also therefore investigated using experimental and numerical studies. For this purpose LCBS were reinforced using plate, stud, transverse and sleeve stiffeners with varying sizes and thicknesses that were welded and screw-fastened to the web of LCBs. These studies showed that plate stiffeners were the most suitable. Suitable screw-fastened plate stiffener arrangements with optimum thicknesses were then proposed for LCBs with web openings to restore their original shear capacities. This paper presents the details of finite element analyses and experiments of LCBs with web openings in shear, and the development of improved shear design rules. It then describes the experimental and numerical studies to determine the optimum plate stiffener arrangements and the results. The proposed shear design rules in this paper can be considered for inclusion in the future versions of cold-formed steel design codes.

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The IEC 61850 family of standards for substation communication systems were released in the early 2000s, and include IEC 61850-8-1 and IEC 61850-9-2 that enable Ethernet to be used for process-level connections between transmission substation switchyards and control rooms. This paper presents an investigation of process bus protection performance, as the in-service behavior of multi-function process buses is largely unknown. An experimental approach was adopted that used a Real Time Digital Simulator and 'live' substation automation devices. The effect of sampling synchronization error and network traffic on transformer differential protection performance was assessed and compared to conventional hard-wired connections. Ethernet was used for all sampled value measurements, circuit breaker tripping, transformer tap-changer position reports and Precision Time Protocol synchronization of sampled value merging unit sampling. Test results showed that the protection relay under investigation operated correctly with process bus network traffic approaching 100% capacity. The protection system was not adversely affected by synchronizing errors significantly larger than the standards permit, suggesting these requirements may be overly conservative. This 'closed loop' approach, using substation automation hardware, validated the operation of protection relays under extreme conditions. Digital connections using a single shared Ethernet network outperformed conventional hard-wired solutions.

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Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

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This brief provides the conceptual background of current research aiming to improve the understanding of the relationship between consumer religiosity and social and psychological risks associated with adopting new products and technologies. This project includes two main studies framed by Hunt-Vitell’s General Theory of Marketing Ethics and Theory of Moral Potency. Using scenario based experimental 2x2 design, two research questions will be answered upon the completion of the project: what is the nature of the relationship between consumer religiosity and perceptions of psychological and social risk? What is the role of moral potency in the relationship between consumer religiosity perception of psychological and social risk?

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This paper presents a new framework for distributed intrusion detection based on taint marking. Our system tracks information flows between applications of multiple hosts gathered in groups (i.e., sets of hosts sharing the same distributed information flow policy) by attaching taint labels to system objects such as files, sockets, Inter Process Communication (IPC) abstractions, and memory mappings. Labels are carried over the network by tainting network packets. A distributed information flow policy is defined for each group at the host level by labeling information and defining how users and applications can legally access, alter or transfer information towards other trusted or untrusted hosts. As opposed to existing approaches, where information is most often represented by two security levels (low/high, public/private, etc.), our model identifies each piece of information within a distributed system, and defines their legal interaction in a fine-grained manner. Hosts store and exchange security labels in a peer to peer fashion, and there is no central monitor. Our IDS is implemented in the Linux kernel as a Linux Security Module (LSM) and runs standard software on commodity hardware with no required modification. The only trusted code is our modified operating system kernel. We finally present a scenario of intrusion in a web service running on multiple hosts, and show how our distributed IDS is able to report security violations at each host level.

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BACKGROUND: Ankle joint equinus, or restricted dorsiflexion range of motion (ROM), has been linked to a range of pathologies of relevance to clinical practitioners. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the effects of conservative interventions on ankle joint ROM in healthy individuals and athletic populations. METHODS: Keyword searches of Embase Medline Cochrane and CINAHL databases were performed with the final search being run in August 2013. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they assessed the effect of a non-surgical intervention on ankle joint dorsiflexion in healthy populations. Studies were quality rated using a standard quality assessment scale. Standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and results were pooled where study methods were homogenous. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies met eligibility criteria, with a total of 734 study participants. Results suggest that there is some evidence to support the efficacy of static stretching alone (SMDs: range 0.70 to 1.69) and static stretching in combination with ultrasound (SMDs: range 0.91 to 0.95), diathermy (SMD 1.12), diathermy and ice (SMD 1.16), heel raise exercises (SMDs: range 0.70 to 0.77), superficial moist heat (SMDs: range 0.65 to 0.84) and warm up (SMD 0.87) in improving ankle joint dorsiflexion ROM. CONCLUSIONS: Some evidence exists to support the efficacy of stretching alone and stretching in combination with other therapies in increasing ankle joint ROM in healthy individuals. There is a paucity of quality evidence to support the efficacy of other non-surgical interventions, thus further research in this area is warranted.

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In this paper, we interrogate the way that narratives about the unfolding of settler colonialism through time are encoded in recent Australian Indigenous policy frameworks. We argue that the postcolonial image of a single transformative moment of radical political break is embedded in Australian policy frameworks, but is deployed in ways that fuse this idea with the moment of colonial completion and in so doing assist the colonial project. By merging the moment of decolonisation and the moment of colonial completion, temporal narratives mobilise conservative and progressive settler voices towards colonial goals. We identify three recent policy approaches: reconciliation, neoliberal contractualism and intervention, and interrogate the narratives of the present and future that they reflect and deploy. We argue these unacknowledged stories of the colonial future must be contested, so that debates about how settler and Indigenous people might live together differently across time are not foreclosed.

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Literacy is promoted as one factor in overcoming disadvantage. In this paper, we employ Fraser’s (1997 & 2008) framing of social justice in order to analyse the disparate agendas of literacy education for improved outcomes in national policy. We do this to better understand the dilemmas confronting preservice teachers as they prepare to become teachers in complex education contexts. We then examine what 20 preservice primary teachers say about social justice in interview responses to a scripted scenario. Our findings demonstrate that most preservice teachers are trying to demonstrate that they have a well-placed commitment to teaching for social justice, however, most of our respondents are yet to frame productive practices that might work in providing socially just education for the students they will teach. These outcomes raise possibilities for future iterations of preservice teacher courses at the case study site and beyond.

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The Liberal National Party (‘LNP’) ‘tough on youth crime’ policy mantra was well publicised in the months leading up to the 2012 Queensland state election. 1 Boot camp trials were espoused as a quick-fix panacea — a way of addressing youth offending. The idea was particularly favoured in the far northern regions of the state. In line with the new government’s policy, the Youth Justice (Boot Camp Orders) and Other Legislation Amendment Bill 2012 (Qld) (‘the Bill’) had a speedy passage through the unicameral Queensland parliament. It was introduced on 1 November 2012, scrutinised by the Legal Affairs and Community Safety Committee (‘LACSC’) which sought community feedback, and reported back to Parliament within the given timeframe of three weeks. The Bill received assent early December and the provisions commenced in January 2013. This article examines the legislative changes implemented in Queensland. It analyses the issues prompting the amendments such as the perception that parts of Queensland were in the grip of a ‘soaring juvenile crime rate’, the conservative government’s ‘tough stance’ policy towards youth offending, and the transfer of youth justice ‘solutions’ such as ‘boot camps’ among jurisdictions. The article assesses the evidence base for boot camp orders as an option in sentencing young offenders and concludes by raising serious concerns about pursuing such a narrow hardline approach to youth justice.

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Background Diabetes is the leading cause of high risk foot (HRF) complications, admissions and lower limb amputation. Best practice training of podiatrists is known to have a beneficial impact on such outcomes; however, there has been a paucity of studies into undergraduate diabetes podiatry training. The primary aim of this paper was to investigate the changes in final year podiatry students’ confidence, knowledge and clinical practice in the management of HRF complications. Methods This was a prospective longitudinal study of final year podiatry students (n=25) at the Queensland University of Technology. All participants throughout 2011 undertook an intervention of a series of “hands on” HRF workshops, on-campus clinics and external clinical rotations. Outcome measures included customised confidence and knowledge surveys in HRF management across four time points. A timed simulated case scenario was used to evaluate changes in clinical practice at two time points. Friedman and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Tests were used to calculate differences between time points Results Overall improvements between the first and last time points were demonstrated in 20/21 confidence items (p<0.001), 12/27 clinical practice items (p<0.05) and 3/12 knowledge items (p<0.001). Although 8/12 knowledge items recorded high baseline scores of over 80%. Conclusions Overall, it appears student confidence and clinical practice improved with the introduction of designated HRF activities, whilst knowledge remained high. This suggests “hands on” practice and not didactic lectures improve students’ clinical confidence and practice. Results from the 2012 student cohort will also be presented at this conference.

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The article examines the evidence of endemic financial crime in the global financial crisis (GFC), the legal impunity surrounding these crimes and the popular revolt against these abuses in the financial, political and legal systems. This is set against a consideration of the development since the 1970s of a conservative politics championing de-regulation, unfettered markets, welfare cuts and harsh law and order policies. On the one hand, this led to massively increased inequality and concentrations of wealth and political power in the hands of the super-rich, effectively placing them above the law, as the GFC revealed. On the other, a greatly enlarged, more punitive criminal justice system was directed at poor and minority communities. Explanations in terms of the rise of penal populism are helpful in explaining these developments, but it is argued they adopt a limited and reductionist view of populism, failing to see the prospects for a progressive populist politics to re-direct political attention to issues of inequality and corporate and white collar criminality.

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Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.