Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black South Africans

The authors used data collected from 1995 to 1999, from an on-going cancer case–control study in greater Johannesburg, to estimate the importance of tobacco and alcohol consumption and other suspected risk factors with respect to cancer of the oesophagus (267 men and 138 women), lung (105 men and 41 women), oral cavity (87 men and 37 women), and larynx (51 men). Cancers not associated with tobacco or alcohol consumption were used as controls (804 men and 1370 women). Tobacco smoking was found to be the major risk factor for all of these cancers with odds ratios ranging from 2.6 (95% CI 1.5–4.5) for oesophageal cancer in female ex-smokers to 50.9 (95% CI 12.6–204.6) for lung cancer in women, and 23.9 (95% CI 9.5–60.3) for lung cancer and 23.6 (95% CI 4.6–121.2) for laryngeal cancer in men who smoked 15 or more grams of tobacco a day. This is the first time an association between smoking and oral and laryngeal cancers has been shown in sub-Saharan Africa. Long-term residence in the Transkei region in the southeast of the country continues to be a risk factor for oesophageal cancer, especially in women (odds ratio=14.7, 95% CI 4.7–46.0), possibly due to nutritional factors. There was a slight increase in lung cancer (odds ratio=2.9, 95% CI 1.1–7.5) in men working in ‘potentially noxious’ industries. ‘Frequent’ alcohol consumption, on its own, caused a marginally elevated risk for oesophageal cancer (odds ratio=1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.9, for women and odds ratio=1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.8, for men). The risks for oesophageal cancer in relation to alcohol consumption increased significantly in male and female smokers (odds ratio=4.7, 95% CI=2.8–7.9 in males and odds ratio=4.8, 95% CI 3.2–6.1 in females). The above results are broadly in line with international findings.

Stochastic analysis of transit route segments' passenger load variation for capacity and quality of service assessment

This paper investigates stochastic analysis of transit segment hourly passenger load factor variation for transit capacity and quality of service (QoS) analysis using Automatic Fare Collection data for a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia. It compares stochastic analysis to traditional peak hour factor (PHF) analysis to gain further insight into variability of transit route segments’ passenger loading during a study hour. It demonstrates that hourly design load factor is a useful method of modeling a route segment’s capacity and QoS time history across the study weekday. This analysis method is readily adaptable to different passenger load standards by adjusting design percentile, reflecting either a more relaxed or more stringent condition. This paper also considers hourly coefficient of variation of load factor as a capacity and QoS assessment measure, in particular through its relationships with hourly average and design load factors. Smaller value reflects uniform passenger loading, which is generally indicative of well dispersed passenger boarding demands and good schedule maintenance. Conversely, higher value may be indicative of pulsed or uneven passenger boarding demands, poor schedule maintenance, and/or bus bunching. An assessment table based on hourly coefficient of variation of load factor is developed and applied to this case study. Inferences are drawn for a selection of study hours across the weekday studied.

The role of human factors in led outdoor activity accidents: literature review and exploratory analysis

While the exact rate of incidence is unknown (due to the paucity of exposure data), it is acknowledged that safety compromising accidents and incidents occur in the led outdoor activity domain, and that they represent an important issue. Despite this, compared to other safety critical domains, very little is currently known about the key causal factors involved in such accidents and incidents. This report presents the findings derived from a review of the literature, the aim of which was to identify the Human Factors-related issues involved in accidents and incidents occurring in this area. In addition, to demonstrate the utility of systems-based, theoretically underpinned accident analysis methodologies for identifying the systemic and human contribution to accidents and incidents occurring in the led outdoor activity domain, three case-study accidents were analysed using two such approaches. In conclusion, the review identified a range of causal factors cited in the literature; however, it was noted that the majority of the research undertaken to date lacks theoretical underpinning and focuses mainly on instructor or activity leader causal factors, as opposed to the wider system failures involved. The accident analysis presented highlighted the utility of systems-based, theoretically underpinned accident analysis methodologies for analysing and learning from accidents and incidents in the led outdoor activity sector. In closing, the need for further research in the area is articulated, in particular focussing on the development of standardised and universally accepted accident and incident reporting systems and databases, the development of data driven, theoretically underpinned causal factor taxonomies, and the development and application of systems-based accident analysis methodologies.

Critical success factors in distance learning construction programs at Central Queensland University : students’ perspective

Distance education has gone through rapid expansion over the years. Many Australian universities are pushing the use of distance education in delivering construction education programs. However, the critical success factors (CSFs) in distance learning construction programs (DLCPs) are not fully understood. More importantly, students’ demographic features may affect the selection of distance education technologies. Situation-matching strategies should therefore be taken by universities or institutions with different student cohorts. A survey is adopted in Central Queensland University (CQU) to identify and rank the critical success factors in a DLCP in Australia where there is a significant number of earner-learners and students with low socioeconomic background. The findings suggest that the most important CSFs include access to computers and internet, reliability of web-based learning sites, high relevance and clarity of learning materials and assessment items, the availability of web-based learning sites that can be easily manipulated, and the capability of the instructors to provide well-structured courses. The findings also suggest that students with low socioeconomic background have more rigorous requirements on interface design, instructors’ support, and the integration of practical components into courses. The results provide good guidance of the design and delivery of DLCPs and will be useful for universities and institutions that are seeking to implement the distance mode in construction education.

Factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care in critical care settings : development and testing of a survey instrument

Aim. To develop and psychometrically test a survey instrument to identify the factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care by critical care nurses. Background. Following a decision to withdraw life-sustaining treatment, critical care nurses remain with the patient and their family providing end-of-life care. Identification of factors influencing the provision of this care can give evidence to inform practice development and support nurses. Design. A cross-sectional survey of critical care nurses. Method. An online survey was developed, reviewed by an expert panel and pilot tested to obtain preliminary evidence of its reliability and validity. In May 2011, a convenience sample of critical care nurses (n = 392, response rate 25%) completed the survey. The analytical approach to data obtained from the 58 items measured on a Likert scale included exploratory factor analysis and descriptive statistics. Results. Exploratory factor analysis identified eight factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care: emotional support for nurses, palliative values, patient and family preferences, resources, organizational support, care planning, knowledge and preparedness. Internal consistency of each latent construct was deemed satisfactory. The results of descriptive statistics revealed a strong commitment to the inclusion of families in end-of-life care and the value of this care in the critical care setting. Conclusion. This paper reports preliminary evidence of the psychometric properties of a new survey instrument. The findings may inform practice development opportunities to support critical care nurses in the provision of endof- life care and improve the care that patients and their families receive.

Synthetic rating system for railway bridge management

This thesis developed a condition assessment and rating method to identify those bridges in a network which are in most need of repair for an effective life cycle management. The method estimates the contribution of critical factors towards bridge deterioration and uses structural analysis to overcome the subjectivity of traditional current condition assessment methods. This research was a part of the CRC project titled 'Life Cycle Management of Railway Bridges'. Efficient usage of resources and enhancing the safety and serviceability of railway bridges are the significant outcomes of using the proposed method.