Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results showthat reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm–2 (40Wm–2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964–1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Passive solar systems for heating, daylighting and ventilation for rooms without an equator-facing facade

Spaces without northerly orientations have an impact on the ‘energy behaviour’ of a building. This paper outlines possible energy savings and better performance achieved by different zenithal solar passive strategies (skylights, roof monitors and clerestory roof windows) and element arrangements across the roof in zones of cold to temperate climates typical of the central and central-southern Argentina. Analyses were undertaken considering daylighting, thermal and ventilation performances of the different strategies. The results indicate that heating,ventilation and lighting loads in spaces without an equator-facing facade can be significantly reduced by implementing solar passive strategies. In the thermal aspect, the solar saving fraction reached for the different strategies were averaged 43.16% for clerestories, 41.4% for roof monitors and 38.86% for skylights for a glass area of 9% to the floor area. The results also indicate average illuminance levels above 500 lux for the different clerestory and monitor arrangements, uniformity ratios of 0.66–0.82 for the most distributed arrangements and day-lighting factors between 11.78 and 20.30% for clear sky conditions, depending on the strategy. In addition, minimum air changes rates of 4 were reached for the most extreme conditions.

Ambient temperature and cardiorespiratory morbidity : a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The effect of extreme temperature has become an increasing public health concern. Evaluating the impact of ambient temperature on morbidity has received less attention than its impact on mortality. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review and extracted quantitative estimates of the effects of hot temperatures on cardiorespiratory morbidity. There were too few studies on effects of cold temperatures to warrant a summary. Pooled estimates of effects of heat were calculated using a Bayesian hierarchical approach that allowed multiple results to be included from the same study, particularly results at different latitudes and with varying lagged effects. RESULTS: Twenty-one studies were included in the final meta-analysis. The pooled results suggest an increase of 3.2% (95% posterior interval = -3.2% to 10.1%) in respiratory morbidity with 1°C increase on hot days. No apparent association was observed for cardiovascular morbidity (-0.5% [-3.0% to 2.1%]). The length of lags had inconsistent effects on the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity, whereas latitude had little effect on either. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of temperature on cardiorespiratory morbidity seemed to be smaller and more variable than previous findings related to mortality.

Simulating a latent susceptible pool to examine the impact on cardiovascular mortality

The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.

Front interactions in a three-component system

The three-component reaction-diffusion system introduced in [C. P. Schenk et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 78 (1997), pp. 3781–3784] has become a paradigm model in pattern formation. It exhibits a rich variety of dynamics of fronts, pulses, and spots. The front and pulse interactions range in type from weak, in which the localized structures interact only through their exponentially small tails, to strong interactions, in which they annihilate or collide and in which all components are far from equilibrium in the domains between the localized structures. Intermediate to these two extremes sits the semistrong interaction regime, in which the activator component of the front is near equilibrium in the intervals between adjacent fronts but both inhibitor components are far from equilibrium there, and hence their concentration profiles drive the front evolution. In this paper, we focus on dynamically evolving N-front solutions in the semistrong regime. The primary result is use of a renormalization group method to rigorously derive the system of N coupled ODEs that governs the positions of the fronts. The operators associated with the linearization about the N-front solutions have N small eigenvalues, and the N-front solutions may be decomposed into a component in the space spanned by the associated eigenfunctions and a component projected onto the complement of this space. This decomposition is carried out iteratively at a sequence of times. The former projections yield the ODEs for the front positions, while the latter projections are associated with remainders that we show stay small in a suitable norm during each iteration of the renormalization group method. Our results also help extend the application of the renormalization group method from the weak interaction regime for which it was initially developed to the semistrong interaction regime. The second set of results that we present is a detailed analysis of this system of ODEs, providing a classification of the possible front interactions in the cases of $N=1,2,3,4$, as well as how front solutions interact with the stationary pulse solutions studied earlier in [A. Doelman, P. van Heijster, and T. J. Kaper, J. Dynam. Differential Equations, 21 (2009), pp. 73–115; P. van Heijster, A. Doelman, and T. J. Kaper, Phys. D, 237 (2008), pp. 3335–3368]. Moreover, we present some results on the general case of N-front interactions.

Improved shear design rules for lipped channel beams with web openings

Cold-formed steel Lipped Channel Beams (LCB) with web openings are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in building structures. The shear behaviour of these beams is more complicated and their shear capacities are considerably reduced by the presence of web openings. However, limited research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Hence a detailed numerical study was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Finite element models of simply supported LCBs under a mid-span load with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were developed and validated by comparing their results with test results. They were then used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of various influential parameters. Experimental and numerical results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel structures design codes are very conservative. Improved design equations were therefore proposed for the shear strength of LCBs with web openings based on both experimental and numerical results. This paper presents the details of finite element modelling of LCBs with web openings, validation of finite element models, and the development of improved shear design rules. The proposed shear design rules in this paper can be considered for inclusion in the future versions of cold-formed steel design codes.

Extreme temperatures and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives To examine the effect of extreme temperatures on emergency department admissions (EDAs) for childhood asthma. Methods An ecological design was used in this study. A Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the effect of temperature on EDAs for asthma among children aged 0–14 years in Brisbane, Australia, during January 2003–December 2009, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 13 324 EDAs for childhood asthma during the study period. Both hot and cold temperatures were associated with increases in EDAs for childhood asthma, and their effects both appeared to be acute. An added effect of heat waves on EDAs for childhood asthma was observed, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Male children and children aged 0–4 years were most vulnerable to heat effects, while children aged 10–14 years were most vulnerable to cold effects. Conclusions Both hot and cold temperatures seemed to affect EDAs for childhood asthma. As climate change continues, children aged 0–4 years are at particular risk for asthma.

Do pioneer cells exist?

Most mathematical models of collective cell spreading make the standard assumption that the cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate are constants that do not vary across the cell population. Here we present a combined experimental and mathematical modeling study which aims to investigate how differences in the cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate amongst a population of cells can impact the collective behavior of the population. We present data from a three–dimensional transwell migration assay which suggests that the cell diffusivity of some groups of cells within the population can be as much as three times higher than the cell diffusivity of other groups of cells within the population. Using this information, we explore the consequences of explicitly representing this variability in a mathematical model of a scratch assay where we treat the total population of cells as two, possibly distinct, subpopulations. Our results show that when we make the standard assumption that all cells within the population behave identically we observe the formation of moving fronts of cells where both subpopulations are well–mixed and indistinguishable. In contrast, when we consider the same system where the two subpopulations are distinct, we observe a very different outcome where the spreading population becomes spatially organized with the more motile subpopulation dominating at the leading edge while the less motile subpopulation is practically absent from the leading edge. These modeling predictions are consistent with previous experimental observations and suggest that standard mathematical approaches, where we treat the cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate as constants, might not be appropriate.

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions

Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

City that enjoys life

A travel article about lifestyle and architecture in Vancouver, Canada. I arrived in Vancouver on a Sunday morning and followed the smell of crepes to a café that had opened early. It was warm, and the outside tables were filling up. The others had a last-night look about them, except a family that smiled as they took the table next to mine. There were no shoppers yet, but the mall was busy with walkers and cyclists. Here and there the down-and-out found seats in the sun; their shadows ran the length of shop fronts...

Pressure shocks in relativistic viscous heat-conducting fluids

In this paper we have studied the propagation of pressure shocks in viscous, heat-conducting, relativistic fluids. Velocities of wave fronts and growth equations for the strength of the waves are obtained in the case of low and high temperatures with variable transport coefficients. On the basis of numerical integrations the growth equation results have been discussed. In the case of constant transport coefficients and for all admissible values of ratio of specific heats of the fluid, an analytical solution for the velocity of the wave as a function of distance along the normal trajectory to the wave front, has been obtained.

Silica Vesicle Nanovaccine Formulations Stimulate Long-Term Immune Responses to the Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus E2 Protein

Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) is one of the most serious pathogen, which causes tremendous economic loss to the cattle industry worldwide, meriting the development of improved subunit vaccines. Structural glycoprotein E2 is reported to be a major immunogenic determinant of BVDV virion. We have developed a novel hollow silica vesicles (SV) based platform to administer BVDV-1 Escherichia coli-expressed optimised E2 (oE2) antigen as a nanovaccine formulation. The SV-140 vesicles (diameter 50 nm, wall thickness 6 nm, perforated by pores of entrance size 16 nm and total pore volume of 0.934 cm(3)g(-1)) have proven to be ideal candidates to load oE2 antigen and generate immune response. The current study for the first time demonstrates the ability of freeze-dried (FD) as well as non-FD oE2/SV140 nanovaccine formulation to induce long-term balanced antibody and cell mediated memory responses for at least 6 months with a shortened dosing regimen of two doses in small animal model. The in vivo ability of oE2 (100 mu g)/SV-140 (500 mu g) and FD oE2 (100 mu g)/SV-140 (500 mu g) to induce long-term immunity was compared to immunisation with oE2 (100 mu g) together with the conventional adjuvant Quil-A from the Quillaja saponira (10 mu g) in mice. The oE2/SV-140 as well as the FD oE2/SV-140 nanovaccine generated oE2-specific antibody and cell mediated responses for up to six months post the final second immunisation. Significantly, the cell-mediated responses were consistently high in mice immunised with oE2/SV-140 (1,500 SFU/million cells) at the six-month time point. Histopathology studies showed no morphological changes at the site of injection or in the different organs harvested from the mice immunised with 500 mu g SV-140 nanovaccine compared to the unimmunised control. The platform has the potential for developing single dose vaccines without the requirement of cold chain storage for veterinary and human applications.

Phytophthora in Finnish nurseries

Human-mediated movement of plants and plant products is now generally accepted to be the primary mode of introduction of plant pathogens. Species of the genus Phytophthora are commonly spread in this way and have caused severe epidemics in silviculture, horticulture as well as natural systems all over the world. The aims of the study were to gather information on the occurrence of Phytophthora spp. in Finnish nurseries, to produce information for risk assessments for these Phytophthora spp. by determining their host ranges and tolerance of cold temperatures, and to establish molecular means for their detection. Phytophthora cactorum was found to persist in natural waterbodies and results suggest that irrigation water might be a source of inoculum in nurseries. In addition to P. cactorum, isolates from ornamental nursery Rhododendron yielded three species new to Finland: P. ramorum, P. plurivora and P. pini. The only species with quarantine status, P. ramorum, was most adapted to growth in cold temperatures and able to persist in the nursery in spite of an annual sanitation protocol. Phytophthora plurivora and the closely related P. pini had more hosts among Nordic tree and plant species than P. ramorum and P. cactorum, and also had higher infectivity rates. All four species survived two weeks in -5 °C , and thus soil survival of these Phytophthoras in Finland is likely under current climatic conditions. The most common tree species in Finnish nurseries, Picea abies, was highly susceptible to P. plurivora and P. pini in pathogenicity trials. In a histological examination of P. plurivora in P. abies shoot tissues, fast necrotrophic growth was observed in nearly all tissues. The production of propagules in P. abies shoot tissue was only weakly indicated. In this study, a PCR DGGE technique was developed for simultaneous detection and identification of Phytophthora spp. It reliably detected Phytophthora in plant tissues and could discriminate most test species as well as indicate instances of multiple-species infections. It proved to be a useful detection and identification tool either applied alone or in concert with traditional isolation culture techniques. All of the introduced species of Phytophthora had properties that promote a high risk of establishment and spread in Finland. It is probable that more pathogens of this genus will be introduced and become established in Finland and other Nordic countries unless efficient phytosanitary control becomes standard practice in the international plant trade.

Periglasiaalisten ilmiöiden alueellinen mallintaminen subarktisessa ympäristössä

Periglacial processes act on cold, non-glacial regions where the landscape deveploment is mainly controlled by frost activity. Circa 25 percent of Earth's surface can be considered as periglacial. Geographical Information System combined with advanced statistical modeling methods, provides an efficient tool and new theoretical perspective for study of cold environments. The aim of this study was to: 1) model and predict the abundance of periglacial phenomena in subarctic environment with statistical modeling, 2) investigate the most import factors affecting the occurence of these phenomena with hierarchical partitioning, 3) compare two widely used statistical modeling methods: Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Additive Models, 4) study modeling resolution's effect on prediction and 5) study how spatially continous prediction can be obtained from point data. The observational data of this study consist of 369 points that were collected during the summers of 2009 and 2010 at the study area in Kilpisjärvi northern Lapland. The periglacial phenomena of interest were cryoturbations, slope processes, weathering, deflation, nivation and fluvial processes. The features were modeled using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM) based on Poisson-errors. The abundance of periglacial features were predicted based on these models to a spatial grid with a resolution of one hectare. The most important environmental factors were examined with hierarchical partitioning. The effect of modeling resolution was investigated with in a small independent study area with a spatial resolution of 0,01 hectare. The models explained 45-70 % of the occurence of periglacial phenomena. When spatial variables were added to the models the amount of explained deviance was considerably higher, which signalled a geographical trend structure. The ability of the models to predict periglacial phenomena were assessed with independent evaluation data. Spearman's correlation varied 0,258 - 0,754 between the observed and predicted values. Based on explained deviance, and the results of hierarchical partitioning, the most important environmental variables were mean altitude, vegetation and mean slope angle. The effect of modeling resolution was clear, too coarse resolution caused a loss of information, while finer resolution brought out more localized variation. The models ability to explain and predict periglacial phenomena in the study area were mostly good and moderate respectively. Differences between modeling methods were small, although the explained deviance was higher with GLM-models than GAMs. In turn, GAMs produced more realistic spatial predictions. The single most important environmental variable controlling the occurence of periglacial phenomena was mean altitude, which had strong correlations with many other explanatory variables. The ongoing global warming will have great impact especially in cold environments on high latitudes, and for this reason, an important research topic in the near future will be the response of periglacial environments to a warming climate.

BCS-BEC crossover induced by a synthetic non-Abelian gauge field

We investigate the ground state of interacting spin-1/2 fermions in three dimensions at a finite density (rho similar to k(F)(3)) in the presence of a uniform non-Abelian gauge field. The gauge-field configuration (GFC) described by a vector lambda equivalent to (lambda(x),lambda(y),lambda(z)), whose magnitude lambda determines the gauge coupling strength, generates a generalized Rashba spin-orbit interaction. For a weak attractive interaction in the singlet channel described by a small negative scattering length (k(F)vertical bar a(s)vertical bar less than or similar to 1), the ground state in the absence of the gauge field (lambda = 0) is a BCS (Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer) superfluid with large overlapping pairs. With increasing gauge-coupling strength, a non-Abelian gauge field engenders a crossover of this BCS ground state to a BEC (Bose-Einstein condensate) of bosons even with a weak attractive interaction that fails to produce a two-body bound state in free vacuum (lambda = 0). For large gauge couplings (lambda/k(F) >> 1), the BEC attained is a condensate of bosons whose properties are solely determined by the Rashba gauge field (and not by the scattering length so long as it is nonzero)-we call these bosons ``rashbons.'' In the absence of interactions (a(s) = 0(-)), the shape of the Fermi surface of the system undergoes a topological transition at a critical gauge coupling lambda(T). For high-symmetry GFCs we show that the crossover from the BCS superfluid to the rashbon BEC occurs in the regime of lambda near lambda(T). In the context of cold atomic systems, these results make an interesting suggestion of obtaining BCS-BEC crossover through a route other than tuning the interaction between the fermions.