Processos individuals en el rendiment acadèmic

En el següent treball es vol observar com influeixen diferents processos individuals (autoconcepte, autoestima, atribució causal dels èxits o fracassos, relacions familiars...) en el rendiment acadèmic de l'alumne. Per això s'ha fet el seguiment de 4 casos on s'ha explorat com afecten aquestes variables en el seu rendiment.

Vaccination against human papillomavirus in Switzerland: simulation of the impact on infection rates.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection of particular interest because of its high prevalence rate and strong causal association with cervical cancer. Two prophylactic vaccines have been developed and different countries have made or will soon make recommendations for the vaccination of girls. Even if there is a consensus to recommend a vaccination before the beginning of sexual activity, there are, however, large discrepancies between countries concerning the perceived usefulness of a catch-up procedure and of boosters. The main objective of this article is to simulate the impact on different vaccination policies upon the mid- and long-term HPV 16/18 age-specific infection rates. METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model based on the susceptible-infective-recovered approach using Swiss data. The mid- and long-term impact of different vaccination scenarios was then compared. RESULTS: The generalization of a catch-up procedure is always beneficial, whatever its extent. Moreover, pending on the length of the protection offered by the vaccine, boosters will also be very useful. CONCLUSIONS: To be really effective, a vaccination campaign against HPV infection should at least include a catch-up to early reach a drop in HPV 16/18 prevalence, and maybe boosters. Otherwise, the protection insured for women in their 20s could be lower than expected, resulting in higher risks to later develop cervical cancer.

Análisis de incidentes químicos ocurridos en piscinas de España, 2008-2012.

Objective: Compared historical overview and systematic description of the distribution, features and public health implication of incidents occurred in swimming pools associated with exposure to chemicals, during the period 2008-2012 in Spain. Method: Retrospective observational design, using information reported to the digital mass media internetbased. Records of chemical incidents from a database of 5-year were analyzed to categorize main features. We examined the following variables: year, frequency and geographical location of incidents, class of swimming pool, settings lead to the event, causal factors, chemicals released, exposure ways, balance of victims, attending hospital and evacuated people. Results: 41 chemical incidents were identified in 5 years with a balance of 428 victims, 119 in-patient and 1750 people evacuated. Common profile of a chemical incident in a swimming pool was featured as a municipal setting where a release or hazardous chemical leak, mainly chlorine or mixed with acids occurred. An average of 10 exposed people per event, mostly children, exposed by respiratory airway, needed to be attended in hospital or community health center an annual average of 24 people, including bathers, employees or users. Conclusions: Swimming pools display scenarios with chemical risks that must be evaluated. Planning and implementing preventive measures are priority to mitigate a negative impact for public health. Our findings suggest the convenience of the regulation of a coordinated information system for ongoing surveillance of incidents in swimming pools to enable a safe management of chemical hazards.

CagA phosphorylation EPIYA-C motifs and the vacA i genotype in Helicobacter pylori strains of asymptomatic children from a high-risk gastric cancer area in northeastern Brazil

Helicobacter pylori infection is one of the most common infections worldwide and is associated with gastric diseases. Virulence factors such as VacA and CagA have been shown to increase the risk of these diseases. Studies have suggested a causal role of CagA EPIYA-C in gastric carcinogenesis and this factor has been shown to be geographically diverse. We investigated the number of CagA EPIYA motifs and the vacA i genotypes in H. pylori strains from asymptomatic children. We included samples from 40 infected children (18 females and 22 males), extracted DNA directly from the gastric mucus/juice (obtained using the string procedure) and analysed the DNA using polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. The vacA i1 genotype was present in 30 (75%) samples, the i2 allele was present in nine (22.5%) samples and both alleles were present in one (2.5%) sample. The cagA-positive samples showed distinct patterns in the 3’ variable region of cagA and 18 of the 30 (60%) strains contained 1 EPIYA-C motif, whereas 12 (40%) strains contained two EPIYA-C motifs. We confirmed that the studied population was colonised early by the most virulent H. pylori strains, as demonstrated by the high frequency of the vacA i1 allele and the high number of EPIYA-C motifs. Therefore, asymptomatic children from an urban community in Fortaleza in northeastern Brazil are frequently colonised with the most virulent H. pylori strains.

What makes articles highly cited?

We examined drivers of article citations using 776 articles that were published from 1990-2012 in a broad-based and high-impact social sciences journal, The Leadership Quarterly. These articles had 1,191 unique authors having published and received in total (at the time of their most recent article published in our dataset) 16,817 articles and 284,777 citations, respectively. Our models explained 66.6% of the variance in citations and showed that quantitative, review, method, and theory articles were significantly more cited than were qualitative articles or agent-based simulations. As concerns quantitative articles, which constituted the majority of the sample, our model explained 80.3% of the variance in citations; some methods (e.g., use of SEM) and designs (e.g., meta-analysis), as well as theoretical approaches (e.g., use of transformational, charismatic, or visionary type-leadership theories) predicted higher article citations. Regarding the statistical conclusion validity of quantitative articles, articles having endogeneity threats received significantly fewer citations than did those using a more robust design or an estimation procedure that ensured correct causal estimation. We make several general recommendations on how to improve research practice and article citations.

Some conceptual difficulties regarding "net" multipliers

Multipliers are routinely used for impact evaluation of private projects and public policies at the national and subnational levels. Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) correctly pointed out the misuse of standard 'gross' multipliers and proposed the concept of 'net' multiplier as a solution to this bad practice. We prove their proposal is not well founded. We do so by showing that supporting theorems are faulty in enunciation and demonstration. The proofs are flawed due to an analytical error but the theorems themselves cannot be salvaged as generic, non-curiosum counterexamples demonstrate. We also provide a general analytical framework for multipliers and, using it, we show that standard 'gross' multipliers are all that is needed within the interindustry model since they follow the causal logic of the economic model, are well defined and independent of exogenous shocks, and are interpretable as predictors for change.

Understanding the development of the ESDP: Perspectives and insights from historical institutionalism and theories of learning

How can we best understand the emergence of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP)? This paper applies the theories of historical institutionalism and experiential learning to offer a dynamic conceptualisation of moves towards an ESDP which highlights some of the causal factors that a more temporally-restricted analysis would miss. It firstly shows how the institutional and functional expansion of European Political Cooperation (EPC) over the course of the 1970s and 80s gave rise to a context in which the development of a security and defence dimension came to be viewed as more logical and even necessary. It then goes on to analyse some of the external factors (in the form of actors, events and institutions) that further pushed in this direction and proved to influence the policy’s subsequent evolution. The paper is therefore intended to act as a first-step to understanding the ESDP’s development from this perspective.

Genetic interplay between HLA-C and MIR148A in HIV control and Crohn disease.

Variation in the 3' untranslated region (3'UTR) of the HLA-C locus determines binding of the microRNA Hsa-miR-148a, resulting in lower cell surface expression of alleles that bind miR-148a relative to those alleles that escape its binding. The HLA-C 3'UTR variant was shown to associate with HIV control, but like the vast majority of disease associations in a region dense with causal candidates, a direct effect of HLA-C expression level on HIV control was not proven. We demonstrate that a MIR148A insertion/deletion polymorphism associates with its own expression levels, affecting the extent to which HLA-C is down-regulated, the level of HIV control, and the risk of Crohn disease only among those carrying an intact miR-148a binding site in the HLA-C 3'UTR. These data illustrate a direct effect of HLA-C expression level on HIV control that cannot be attributed to other HLA loci in linkage disequilibrium with HLA-C and highlight the rich complexity of genetic interactions in human disease.

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

Peacetime Violence in El Salvador and Honduras: A tale of two countries

The end of the Cold War did not bring about an end to violence in Central America. Today, so-called non-political violence continues to worsen. Academics and public policymakers are frequently influenced by the assumption that there is a causal relationship between the political violence of the 1980s and the non-political violence of today. By looking at the cases of El Salvador and Honduras, this working paper seeks to systematize existing claims about the causal relationship between past and present violence into two approaches. Our research shows that high levels of prolonged political violence, along with an abundance of firearms, can lead to high levels of prolonged non-political violence but not in the ways most often cited in existing literature. We propose a new model to better understand the connection between past and present violence and recommend indicators that can be used to measure variations in violence over time in contexts of protracted non-political violence.

Arthroskopie bei Hüftdysplasie [Arthroscopy in hip dysplasia]

[The causal treatment of a residual hip dysplasia consists of an acetabular reorientation osteotomy, the results of which, however, strongly depend on concomitant intra-articular lesions. The most important prognostic factor is the cartilage status. However, tears in the labrum and the ligament of the head of the femur may also be responsible for symptoms. Hip arthroscopy is a valuable tool for a precise diagnosis and simultaneous treatment of these lesions. However, as yet no results supporting this treatment algorithm have been published.]

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate. OBJECTIVE: To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated. DESIGN: Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L. SETTING: HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States. PATIENTS: 20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis. MEASUREMENTS: Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. RESULTS: Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death. Limitations: CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist. CONCLUSION: Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Interregional compensatory mechanisms of motor functioning in progressing preclinical neurodegeneration.

Understanding brain reserve in preclinical stages of neurodegenerative disorders allows determination of which brain regions contribute to normal functioning despite accelerated neuronal loss. Besides the recruitment of additional regions, a reorganisation and shift of relevance between normally engaged regions are a suggested key mechanism. Thus, network analysis methods seem critical for investigation of changes in directed causal interactions between such candidate brain regions. To identify core compensatory regions, fifteen preclinical patients carrying the genetic mutation leading to Huntington's disease and twelve controls underwent fMRI scanning. They accomplished an auditory paced finger sequence tapping task, which challenged cognitive as well as executive aspects of motor functioning by varying speed and complexity of movements. To investigate causal interactions among brain regions a single Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) was constructed and fitted to the data from each subject. The DCM parameters were analysed using statistical methods to assess group differences in connectivity, and the relationship between connectivity patterns and predicted years to clinical onset was assessed in gene carriers. In preclinical patients, we found indications for neural reserve mechanisms predominantly driven by bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, which increasingly activated superior parietal cortices the closer individuals were to estimated clinical onset. This compensatory mechanism was restricted to complex movements characterised by high cognitive demand. Additionally, we identified task-induced connectivity changes in both groups of subjects towards pre- and caudal supplementary motor areas, which were linked to either faster or more complex task conditions. Interestingly, coupling of dorsal premotor cortex and supplementary motor area was more negative in controls compared to gene mutation carriers. Furthermore, changes in the connectivity pattern of gene carriers allowed prediction of the years to estimated disease onset in individuals. Our study characterises the connectivity pattern of core cortical regions maintaining motor function in relation to varying task demand. We identified connections of bilateral dorsal premotor cortex as critical for compensation as well as task-dependent recruitment of pre- and caudal supplementary motor area. The latter finding nicely mirrors a previously published general linear model-based analysis of the same data. Such knowledge about disease specific inter-regional effective connectivity may help identify foci for interventions based on transcranial magnetic stimulation designed to stimulate functioning and also to predict their impact on other regions in motor-associated networks.

Tackling self-selection into treatment and self-selection into the sample biases in VAA research

Self‐selection into treatment and self‐selection into the sample are major concerns of VAA research and need to be controlled for if the aim is to deduce causal effects from VAA use in observational data. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects of VAA research and outlines omnipresent endogeneity issues, partly imposed through unobserved factors that affect both whether individuals chose to use VAAs and their electoral behavior. We promote using Heckman selection models and apply various versions of the model to data from the Swiss electorate and smartvote users in order to see to what extent selection biases interfere with the estimated effects of interest.

Epidemiological Profile for Iowa, 2002

This statewide profile describes the epidemiology of HIV, AIDS, and other sexually transmitted diseases in Iowa through December, 2002. The report characterizes the distribution of these diseases in terms of geography, race, gender, age, and associated causal factors. This epidemiological profile has been prepared to assist in developing a comprehensive HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care Plan. This description of the HIV epidemic in the state serves to guide prevention and service efforts, to quantify unmet need for prevention and care programs, and to evaluate programs and policies in Iowa. Five key questions are addressed: 1. What are the sociodemographic characteristics of Iowa’s population? 2. What is the epidemiology, including the geographical distribution, of HIV, AIDS, and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in Iowa? 3. Who is at the greatest risk of becoming infected with HIV and other STDs in Iowa? 4. What are the patterns of utilization of HIV services throughout the state? 5. What are the number and characteristics of persons who know they are HIV-positive, but who are not receiving primary medical care?