Modelling short-term ultraviolet exposure as an alternative to individual dosimetry

Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

Hypoglycémie et traitement du diabète de type 2. Le retour à une normoglycémie n'est pas nécessairement la meilleure stratégie thérapeutique [Hypoglycemia and diabetes treatment: the return to normal glucose level is not always the best therapeutic strategy].

Recent clinical trials with type 2 diabetic patients and the quest of normal glyceamic values, have revealed difficulties and limitations. These too normal glyceamic targets corresponding to the physiological standards are associated with very high rate of hypoglycemia and an increase of mortality. A too simplistic view of treatment: "the lowest, the better is in the diabetes" is no longer defensible. The knowledge from complex systems behavior invites us to search targets adapted to a new state of equilibrium due to loss of self-regulation. These targets should not aim the physiological standards but to be adapted to patient's situation. Shared decision-making and consensus are the two pillars of this new strategy supported by the new ADA-EASD guidelines.

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Recanalization and Collaterals Predict Outcome in Proximal MCA Occlusion, but neither Penumbra nor Core of Stroke

Data on new predictors of outcome include penumbra core or collaterals.Objective: To test the predictive value of recanalization, collaterals, penumbra and core of ischemia for functional outcome in a large group of patients with MCA occlusion. Method: Consecutive events included prospectively in the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne from April 2002 to April 2009 with an acute stroke due to proximal MCA occlusion (M1) were considered for analysis. Acute CTA were reviewed to grade the collaterals (dichotomized in poor __50% or good _50% compared to the normal side) and localization of M1 occlusion (proximal or mid-distal). Acute CTP were reviewed and reconstructed to determine penumbra, core and stroke index (penumbra/penumbra_core) of brain ischemia. Good outcome was defined by mRS 0-2 at 3 months.Results: Among 242 events (115 male, mean NIHSS 18.1, SD 5.8, mean age 66, SD 15), 42% were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, and 3% with intraarterial thrombolysis. Collateral status was rated as poor in 53% of events and proximal M1 occlusion was present in 64%. Recanalization determined at 24 hours with CTA was complete in 26% events and partial/absent in 54%.CTP was available for 212 events. Mean penumbra was 88.6 cm3 (median 84.4, SD 53.8), mean core was 54.1 cm3 (median 46.2, SD 45.7) and stroke index was 64% (median 68%, SD 25%). Good outcome was observed in 87 events (36%) and was associated in multivariate logistic regression with thrombolysis (p_0.02, OR_2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.4), recanalization (p_0.001, OR_4.1, 95% CI 1.9-8.9), lower NIHSS (p_0.001, OR_0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.91), male gender (p_0.01, OR_2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.9), mRS prior to stroke (p_0.02, OR_0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.9) and good collateral status (p_0.005, OR_3, 95% CI 1.4-6.4). Nor penumbra, nor core, nor stroke index were significant in the multivariate model, even if an association was present in the univariate model between good functional outcome and penumbra (p_0.004, OR_1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.01), core (p_0.001, OR_0.98, 95% CI 0.976-0.99) and strokeindex (p_0.001, OR_16.7, 95% CI 4.6 59.9).Conclusion: MCA recanalization is the best predictor for good functional outcome, followed by collateral status. CTP data did not predict the functional outcome in our large group of M1 occlusion. Author Disclosures: C. Odier: None. P. Michel: Research Grant; Significant; Paion, Lundbeck. Speakers; Modest; Boehringer-Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Modest; Boehringer- Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Significant; Servier, Lundbeck.

Genetic structure of a linear population of Beta vulgaris ssp maritima (sea beet) revealed by isozyme and RFLP analysis

Knowledge of the genetic structure of plant populations is necessary for the understanding of the dynamics of major ecological processes. It also has applications in conservation biology and risk assessment for genetically modified crops. This paper reports the genetic structure of a linear population of sea beet, Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima (the wild relative of sugar beet), on Furzey Island, Poole Harbour. The relative spatial positions of the plants were accurately mapped and the plants were scored for variation at isozyme and RFLP loci. Structure was analysed by repeated subdivision of the population to find the average size of a randomly mating group. Estimates of F-ST between randomly mating units were then made, and gave patterns consistent with the structure of the population being determined largely by founder effects. The implications of these results for the monitoring of transgene spread in wild sea beet populations are discussed.

Performance of classic electrocardiographic criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy in an African population.

ECG criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) have been almost exclusively elaborated and calibrated in white populations. Because several interethnic differences in ECG characteristics have been found, the applicability of these criteria to African individuals remains to be demonstrated. We therefore investigated the performance of classic ECG criteria for LVH detection in an African population. Digitized 12-lead ECG tracings were obtained from 334 African individuals randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles (Indian Ocean). Left ventricular mass was calculated with M-mode echocardiography and indexed to body height. LVH was defined by taking the 95th percentile of body height-indexed LVM values in a reference subgroup. In the entire study sample, 16 men and 15 women (prevalence 9.3%) were finally declared to have LVH, of whom 9 were of the reference subgroup. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values for LVH were calculated for 9 classic ECG criteria, and receiver operating characteristic curves were computed. We also generated a new composite time-voltage criterion with stepwise multiple linear regression: weighted time-voltage criterion=(0.2366R(aVL)+0.0551R(V5)+0.0785S(V3)+ 0.2993T(V1))xQRS duration. The Sokolow-Lyon criterion reached the highest sensitivity (61%) and the R(aVL) voltage criterion reached the highest specificity (97%) when evaluated at their traditional partition value. However, at a fixed specificity of 95%, the sensitivity of these 10 criteria ranged from 16% to 32%. Best accuracy was obtained with the R(aVL) voltage criterion and the new composite time-voltage criterion (89% for both). Positive and negative predictive values varied considerably depending on the concomitant presence of 3 clinical risk factors for LVH (hypertension, age >/=50 years, overweight). Median positive and negative predictive values of the 10 ECG criteria were 15% and 95%, respectively, for subjects with none or 1 of these risk factors compared with 63% and 76% for subjects with all of them. In conclusion, the performance of classic ECG criteria for LVH detection was largely disparate and appeared to be lower in this population of East African origin than in white subjects. A newly generated composite time-voltage criterion might provide improved performance. The predictive value of ECG criteria for LVH was considerably enhanced with the integration of information on concomitant clinical risk factors for LVH.

Pancreatic stone protein as a novel marker for neonatal sepsis.

PURPOSE: Early-onset sepsis (EOS) is one of the main causes for the admission of newborns to the neonatal intensive care unit. However, traditional infection markers are poor diagnostic markers of EOS. Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) is a promising sepsis marker in adults. The aim of this study was to investigate whether determining PSP improves the diagnosis of EOS in comparison with other infection markers. METHODS: This was a prospective multicentre study involving 137 infants with a gestational age of >34 weeks who were admitted with suspected EOS. PSP, procalcitonin (PCT), soluble human triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured at admission. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The level of PSP in infected infants was significantly higher than that in uninfected ones (median 11.3 vs. 7.5 ng/ml, respectively; p = 0.001). The ROC area under the curve was 0.69 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.80; p < 0.001] for PSP, 0.77 (95 % CI 0.66-0.87; p < 0.001) for PCT, 0.66 (95 % CI 0.55-0.77; p = 0.006) for CRP, 0.62 (0.51-0.73; p = 0.055) for sTREM-1 and 0.54 (0.41-0.67; p = 0.54) for MIF. PSP independently of PCT predicted EOS (p < 0.001), and the use of both markers concomitantly significantly increased the ability to diagnose EOS. A bioscore combining PSP (>9 ng/ml) and PCT (>2 ng/ml) was the best predictor of EOS (0.83; 95 % CI 0.74-0.93; p < 0.001) and resulted in a negative predictive value of 100 % and a positive predictive value of 71 %. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study, the diagnostic performance of PSP and PCT was superior to that of traditional markers and a combination bioscore improved the diagnosis of sepsis. Our findings suggest that PSP is a valuable biomarker in combination with PCT in EOS.

A convex optimization framework for global tractography

In this article we present a novel approach for diffusion MRI global tractography. Our formulation models the signal in each voxel as a linear combination of fiber-tract basis func- tions, which consist of a comprehensive set of plausible fiber tracts that are locally compatible with the measured MR signal. This large dictionary of candidate fibers is directly estimated from the data and, subsequently, efficient convex optimization techniques are used for recovering the smallest subset globally best fitting the measured signal. Experimen- tal results conducted on a realistic phantom demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces the computational cost of global tractography while still attaining a reconstruction quality at least as good as the state-of-the-art global methods.

Linear response functions for a vibrational configuration interaction state

Linear response functions are implemented for a vibrational configuration interaction state allowing accurate analytical calculations of pure vibrational contributions to dynamical polarizabilities. Sample calculations are presented for the pure vibrational contributions to the polarizabilities of water and formaldehyde. We discuss the convergence of the results with respect to various details of the vibrational wave function description as well as the potential and property surfaces. We also analyze the frequency dependence of the linear response function and the effect of accounting phenomenologically for the finite lifetime of the excited vibrational states. Finally, we compare the analytical response approach to a sum-over-states approach

Variational calculation of vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties

A variational approach for reliably calculating vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties of molecules with large electrical and/or mechanical anharmonicity is introduced. This approach utilizes a self-consistent solution of the vibrational Schrödinger equation for the complete field-dependent potential-energy surface and, then, adds higher-level vibrational correlation corrections as desired. An initial application is made to static properties for three molecules of widely varying anharmonicity using the lowest-level vibrational correlation treatment (i.e., vibrational Møller-Plesset perturbation theory). Our results indicate when the conventional Bishop-Kirtman perturbation method can be expected to break down and when high-level vibrational correlation methods are likely to be required. Future improvements and extensions are discussed

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms.

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption.

Assembling genes from predicted exons in linear time with dynamic programming

In a number of programs for gene structure prediction in higher eukaryotic genomic sequences, exon prediction is decoupled from gene assembly: a large pool of candidate exons is predicted and scored from features located in the query DNA sequence, and candidate genes are assembled from such a pool as sequences of nonoverlapping frame-compatible exons. Genes are scored as a function of the scores of the assembled exons, and the highest scoring candidate gene is assumed to be the most likely gene encoded by the query DNA sequence. Considering additive gene scoring functions, currently available algorithms to determine such a highest scoring candidate gene run in time proportional to the square of the number of predicted exons. Here, we present an algorithm whose running time grows only linearly with the size of the set of predicted exons. Polynomial algorithms rely on the fact that, while scanning the set of predicted exons, the highest scoring gene ending in a given exon can be obtained by appending the exon to the highest scoring among the highest scoring genes ending at each compatible preceding exon. The algorithm here relies on the simple fact that such highest scoring gene can be stored and updated. This requires scanning the set of predicted exons simultaneously by increasing acceptor and donor position. On the other hand, the algorithm described here does not assume an underlying gene structure model. Indeed, the definition of valid gene structures is externally defined in the so-called Gene Model. The Gene Model specifies simply which gene features are allowed immediately upstream which other gene features in valid gene structures. This allows for great flexibility in formulating the gene identification problem. In particular it allows for multiple-gene two-strand predictions and for considering gene features other than coding exons (such as promoter elements) in valid gene structures.

Synthesis of Best Practice for Increasing Protection and Visibility of Highway Maintenance Vehicles, CTRE Final Report Iowa DOT Project TR-475, August 2002

The purpose of this research project is to study current practices in enhancing visibility and protection of highway maintenance vehicles involved in moving operations such as snow removal and shoulder operations, crack sealing, and pothole patching. The results will enable the maintenance staff to adequately assess the applicability and impact of each strategy to their use and budget. The report’s literature review chapter examines the use of maintenance vehicle warning lights, retroreflective tapes, shadow vehicles and truck-mounted attenuators, and advanced vehicle control systems, as well as other practices to improve visibility for both snowplow operators and vehicles. The chapter concludes that the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices does not specify what color or kind of warning lights to use. Thus, a wide variety of lights are being used on maintenance vehicles. The study of the relevant literatures also suggests that there are no clear guidelines for moving work zones at this time. Two types of surveys were conducted to determine current practices to improve visibility and safety in moving work zones across the country and in the state of Iowa. In the first survey of state departments of transportation, most indicated using amber warning lights on their maintenance vehicles. Almost all the responding states indicated using some form of reflective material on their vehicles to make them more visible. Most participating states indicated that the color of their vehicles is orange. Most states indicated using more warning lights on snow removal vehicles than their other maintenance vehicles. All responding state agencies indicated using shadow vehicles and/or truck-mounted attenuators during their moving operations. In the second survey of Iowa counties, most indicated using very similar traffic control and warning devices during their granular road maintenance and snow removal operations. Mounting warning signs and rotating or strobe lights on the rear of maintenance vehicles is common for Iowa counties. The most common warning devices used during the counties’ snow removal operations are reflective tapes, warning flags, strobe lights, and auxiliary headlamps.