Sensitivity Analysis of Some Applied Probability Models

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: Primary 90C31. Secondary 62C12, 62P05, 93C41.

Application of Regularized Discriminant Analysis

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H30, 62P99

A three-level RFID-based automation approach to enhance network competitiveness

Today, the question of how to successfully reduce supply chain costs whilst increasing customer satisfaction continues to be the focus of many firms. It is noted in the literature that supply chain automation can increase flexibility whilst reducing inefficiencies. However, in the dynamic and process driven environment of distribution, there is the absence of a cohesive automation approach to guide companies in improving network competitiveness. This paper aims to address the gap in the literature by developing a three-level framework automation application approach with the assistance of radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and returnable transport equipment (RTE). The first level considers the automation of data retrieval and highlights the benefits of RFID. The second level consists of automating distribution processes such as unloading and assembling orders. As the labour is reduced with the introduction of RFID enabled robots, the balance between automation and labour is discussed. Finally, the third level is an analysis of the decision-making process at network points and the application of cognitive automation to objects. A distribution network scenario is formed and used to illustrate network reconfiguration at each level. The research pinpoints that RFID enabled RTE offers a viable tool to assist supply chain automation. Further research is proposed in particular, the area of cognitive automation to aide with decision-making.

The impact of external market factors on operational practices and performance of companies

The links between operational practices and performance are well studied in the literature, both theoretically and empirically. However, mostly internal factors are inspected more closely as the basis of operational performance, even if the impact of external, environmental factors is often emphasized. Our research fills a part of this existing gap in the literature. We examine how two environmental factors, market dynamism and competition impact the use of some operational practices (such as quality improvement, product development, automation, etc.) and the resulting operations and business performance. The method of path analysis is used. Data were acquired through an international survey (IMSS – International Manufacturing Strategy Survey), which was executed in 2005, in 23 participating countries in so called "innovative" industries (ISIC 28-35) with a sample of 711 firms. Results show that both market dynamism and competition have large impact on business performance, but the indirect effects, through operations practices are rather weak compared to direct ones. The most influential practices are from the area of process and control, and quality management.

A tudásérték meghatározása minőségügyi szempontból, hálózatelemzési módszerekkel (The knowledge value in terms of quality with network analysis methods)

A minőségügy egyik kulcsfeladata, hogy azonosítsa az értékteremtés szempontjából kritikus tényezőket, meghatározza ezek értékét, valamint intézkedjen negatív hatásuk megelőzése és csökkentése érdekében. Az értékteremtés sok esetben folyamatokon keresztül történik, amelyek tevékenységekből, elvégzendő feladatokból állnak. Ezekhez megfelelő munkatársak kellenek, akiknek az egyik legfontosabb jellemzője az általuk birtokolt tudás. Mindezek alapján a feladat-tudás-erőforrás kapcsolatrendszer ismerete és kezelése minőségügyi feladat is. A komplex rendszerek elemzésével foglalkozó hálózatkutatás eszközt biztosíthat ehhez, ezért indokolt a minőségügyi területen történő alkalmazhatóságának vizsgálata. Az alkalmazási lehetőségek rendszerezése érdekében a szerzők kategorizálták a minőségügyi hálózatokat az élek (kapcsolatok) és a csúcsok (hálózati pontok) típusai alapján. Ezt követően definiálták a multimodális (több különböző csúcstípusból álló) tudáshálózatot, amely a feladatokból, az erőforrásokból, a tudáselemekből és a közöttük lévő kapcsolatokból épül fel. A hálózat segítségével kategóriákba sorolták a tudáselemeket, valamint a fokszámok alapján meghatározták értéküket. A multimodális hálózatból képzett tudáselem-hálózatban megadták az összefüggő csoportok jelentését, majd megfogalmaztak egy összefüggést a tudáselem-elvesztés kockázatának meghatározására. _______ The aims of quality management are to identify those factors that have significant influence on value production, qualify or quantify them, and make preventive and corrective actions in order to reduce their negative effects. The core elements of value production are processes and tasks, along with workforce having the necessary knowledge to work. For that reason the task-resource-knowledge structure is pertinent to quality management. Network science provides methods to analyze complex systems; therefore it seems reasonable to study the use of tools of network analysis in association with quality management issues. First of all the authors categorized quality networks according to the types of nodes (vertices) and links (edges or arcs). Focusing on knowledge management, they defined the multimodal knowledge network, consisting of tasks, resources, knowledge items and their interconnections. Based on their degree, network nodes can be categorized and their value can be quantified. Derived from the multimodal network knowledge-item network is to be created, where the meaning of cohesive subgroups is defined. Eventually they proposed a formula for determining the risk of knowledge loss.

The effect of vision congruence on employee empowerment, commitment, satisfaction, and performance

Five models delineating the person-situation fit controversy were developed and tested. Hypotheses were tested to determine the linkages between vision congruence, empowerment, locus of control, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and employee performance. Vision was defined as a mental image of a possible and desirable future state of the organization.^ Data were collected from 213 employees in a major flower import company. Participants were from various organizational levels and ethnic backgrounds. The data collection procedure consisted of three parts. First, a profile analysis instrument was used which was developed employing a Q-sort based technique, to measure the vision congruence between the CEO and each employee. Second, employees completed a survey instrument which included scales measuring empowerment, locus of control, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and social desirability. Third, supervisor performance ratings were gathered from employee files. Data analysis consisted of using Kendall's tau to measure the correlation between CEO's and each employee's vision. Path analyses were conducted using the EQS structural equation program to test five theoretical models for goodness-of-fit. Regression analysis was employed to test whether locus of control acted as a moderator variable.^ The results showed that vision congruence is significantly related to job satisfaction and employee commitment, and perceived empowerment acts as an intervening variable affecting employee outcomes. The study also found that people with an internal locus of control were more likely to feel empowered than were those with external beliefs. Implications of these findings for both researchers and practitioners are discussed and suggestions for future research directions are provided. ^

Student perceptions of the school physical fitness testing program: The Fitnessgram

The purpose of this study was to determine fifth grade students' perceptions of the Fitnessgram physical fitness testing program. This study examined if the Fitnessgram physical fitness testing experience promotes an understanding of the health-related fitness components and examined the relationship between individual fitness test scores and time spent participating in out-of-school physical activity. Lastly, students' thoughts and feelings concerning the Fitnessgram experience were examined. ^ The primary participant population for the study was 110 fifth grade students at Redland Elementary School, a Miami-Dade County Public School (M-DCPS). Data were collected over the course of 5 months. Multiple sources of data allowed for triangulation. Data sources included Fitnessgram test scores, questionnaires, document analysis, and in-depth interviews. ^ Interview data were analyzed qualitatively for common broad themes, which were identified and defined. Document analysis included analyzing student fitness test scores and student questionnaire data. This information was analyzed to determine if the Fitnessgram test scores have an impact on student views about the school fitness-testing program. Data were statistically analyzed using analysis of frequency, crosstabulations (Bryman & Duncan, 1997), and Somers'd Correlation (Bryman & Duncan, 1997). The results of the analysis of data on student knowledge of the physical fitness components tested by each Fitnessgram test revealed students do not understand the health-related fitness components. ^ The results of determining a relationship between individuals' fitness test scores and time spent in out-of-school physical activity revealed a significant positive relationship for 2 of the 6 Fitnessgram tests. ^ The results of examining students' thoughts and feelings about each Fitnessgram test focused around 2 broad themes: (a) these children do not mind the physical fitness testing and (b) how they felt about the experience was directly related to how they thought they had performed. ^ If the goal of physical fitness was only to get children fit, this test may be appropriate. However, the ultimate goal of physical fitness is to encourage students to live active and healthy lifestyles. Findings suggest the Fitnessgram as implemented by M-DCPS may not be the most suitable measurement instrument when assessing attitudinal changes that affect a healthy lifelong lifestyle. ^

Investigation of the causes of serious injury and fatal crashes: An analysis using econometric models

The rate of fatal crashes in Florida has remained significantly higher than the national average for the last several years. The 2003 statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the latest available, show a fatality rate in Florida of 1.71 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled compared to the national average of 1.48 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled. The objective of this research is to better understand the driver, environmental, and roadway factors that affect the probability of injury severity in Florida. ^ In this research, the ordered logit model was used to develop six injury severity models; single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes on urban freeways and urban principal arterials and two-vehicle crashes at urban signalized and unsignalized intersections. The data used in this research included all crashes that occurred on the state highway system for the period from 2001 to 2003 in the Southeast Florida region, which includes the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.^ The results of the analysis indicate that the age group and gender of the driver at fault were significant factors of injury severity risk across all models. The greatest risk of severe injury was observed for the age groups 55 to 65 and 66 and older. A positive association between injury severity and the race of the driver at fault was also found. Driver at fault of Hispanic origin was associated with a higher risk of severe injury for both freeway models and for the two-vehicle crash model on arterial roads. A higher risk of more severe injury crash involvement was also found when an African-American was the at fault driver on two-vehicle crashes on freeways. In addition, the arterial class was also found to be positively associated with a higher risk of severe crashes. Six-lane divided arterials exhibited the highest injury severity risk of all arterial classes. The lowest severe injury risk was found for one way roads. Alcohol involvement by the driver at fault was also found to be a significant risk of severe injury for the single-vehicle crash model on freeways. ^

An investigation into advertising's ability to foster favorable evaluations of brand extensions

Taking a respected brand name and placing it on a new product has become a popular strategy for leveraging the name's equity and goodwill. Current research has indicated that the success of doing so depends in part on the perceived “fit” between the core brand and the extension. When the name is extended to a closely related product category, consumers are very likely to transfer their favorable attitudes toward the core to the extension. However, as the perceived fit declines, this transfer becomes less likely. ^ This dissertation examined whether particular advertising tactics (e.g., using a common endorser or logo for the core and the extension) could enhance perceived fit between the core brand and its extension, thus leading to more favorable attitudes toward the extension than would otherwise occur. The sample was undergraduate students from universities in the southeast. The generating mechanism tested was that the transfer of associations between core brand and extension would enhance the overlap of associations between the core brand and the potential extension. ^ Research questions were analyzed using a 3 (levels of fit) x 3 (treatments) x 2 (replicate) experiment. The data analysis was conducted with repeated measures ANOVA's, UNIVARIATE ANOVA's, UNIVARIATE ANCOVA'S, and planned linear contrasts. ^ The results, except for the hypotheses on fit as a mediator of extension attitude, do not indicate that the presence of an endorser or brand mark closely aligned with the core brand enhanced perceived fit between core brand and extension. ^

A framework for specification and analysis of software architectures

Software architecture is the abstract design of a software system. It plays a key role as a bridge between requirements and implementation, and is a blueprint for development. The architecture represents a set of early design decisions that are crucial to a system. Mistakes in those decisions are very costly if they remain undetected until the system is implemented and deployed. This is where formal specification and analysis fits in. Formal specification makes sure that an architecture design is represented in a rigorous and unambiguous way. Furthermore, a formally specified model allows the use of different analysis techniques for verifying the correctness of those crucial design decisions. ^ This dissertation presented a framework, called SAM, for formal specification and analysis of software architectures. In terms of specification, formalisms and mechanisms were identified and chosen to specify software architecture based on different analysis needs. Formalisms for specifying properties were also explored, especially in the case of non-functional properties. In terms of analysis, the dissertation explored both the verification of functional properties and the evaluation of non-functional properties of software architecture. For the verification of functional property, methodologies were presented on how to apply existing model checking techniques on a SAM model. For the evaluation of non-functional properties, the dissertation first showed how to incorporate stochastic information into a SAM model, and then explained how to translate the model to existing tools and conducts the analysis using those tools. ^ To alleviate the analysis work, we also provided a tool to automatically translate a SAM model for model checking. All the techniques and methods described in the dissertation were illustrated by examples or case studies, which also served a purpose of advocating the use of formal methods in practice. ^

An analysis of the themes of environmental sustainability in the United States curriculum science content standards

This study examined how the themes of environmental sustainability are evident in the national, state and local standards that guide k–12 science curriculum. The study applied the principles of content analysis within the framework of an ecological paradigm. In education, an ecological paradigm focuses on students' use of a holistic lens to view and understand material. The intent of this study was to analyze the seventh grade science content standards at the national, state, and local textbook levels to determine how and the extent to which each of the five themes of environmental sustainability are presented in the language of each text. The themes are: (a) Climate Change Indicators, (b) Biodiversity, (c) Human Population Density, (d) Impact and Presence of Environmental Pollution, (e) Earth as a Closed System. The research study offers practical insight on using a method of content analysis to locate keywords of environmental sustainability in the three texts and determine if the context of each term relates to this ecological paradigm. Using a concordance program, the researcher identified the frequency and context of each vocabulary item associated with these themes. Nine chi squares were run to determine if there were differences in content between the national and state standards and the textbook. Within each level chi squares were also run to determine if there were differences between the appearance of content knowledge and skill words. Results indicate that there is a lack of agreement between levels that is significant p < .01. A discussion of these results in relation to curriculum development and standardized assessments followed. The study found that at the national and state levels, there is a lack of articulation of the goals of environmental sustainability or an ecological paradigm. With respect to the science textbook, a greater number of keywords were present; however, the context of many of these keywords did not align with the discourse of an ecological paradigm. Further, the environmental sustainability themes present in the textbook were limited to the last four chapters of the text. Additional research is recommended to determine whether this situation also exists in other settings.

Elemental analysis of glass and ink by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS)

The necessity of elemental analysis techniques to solve forensic problems continues to expand as the samples collected from crime scenes grow in complexity. Laser ablation ICP-MS (LA-ICP-MS) has been shown to provide a high degree of discrimination between samples that originate from different sources. In the first part of this research, two laser ablation ICP-MS systems were compared, one using a nanosecond laser and another a femtosecond laser source for the forensic analysis of glass. The results showed that femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did not provide significant improvements in terms of accuracy, precision and discrimination, however femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did provide lower detection limits. In addition, it was determined that even for femtosecond LA-ICP-MS an internal standard should be utilized to obtain accurate analytical results for glass analyses. In the second part, a method using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the forensic analysis of glass was shown to provide excellent discrimination for a glass set consisting of 41 automotive fragments. The discrimination power was compared to two of the leading elemental analysis techniques, μXRF and LA-ICP-MS, and the results were similar; all methods generated >99% discrimination and the pairs found indistinguishable were similar. An extensive data analysis approach for LIBS glass analyses was developed to minimize Type I and II errors en route to a recommendation of 10 ratios to be used for glass comparisons. Finally, a LA-ICP-MS method for the qualitative analysis and discrimination of gel ink sources was developed and tested for a set of ink samples. In the first discrimination study, qualitative analysis was used to obtain 95.6% discrimination for a blind study consisting of 45 black gel ink samples provided by the United States Secret Service. A 0.4% false exclusion (Type I) error rate and a 3.9% false inclusion (Type II) error rate was obtained for this discrimination study. In the second discrimination study, 99% discrimination power was achieved for a black gel ink pen set consisting of 24 self collected samples. The two pairs found to be indistinguishable came from the same source of origin (the same manufacturer and type of pen purchased in different locations). It was also found that gel ink from the same pen, regardless of the age, was indistinguishable as were gel ink pens (four pens) originating from the same pack.

Assessing the influence of organizational personality, applicants' need motivation, expectancy beliefs, and person-organization fit on applicant attraction

This research explored the thesis that organizational personality is related to applicants’ attraction to an organization through a process which involves need motivation, expectancy beliefs, and applicants’ perceptions of person-organization fit. Organizational personality may be defined as a collection of trait-like characteristics that individuals use to describe organizational practices, policies, values, and culture. Specifically, this research investigated the hypothesis that organizational personality information is useful to applicants because it helps individuals to determine their perceptions of fit. A sample of students (N = 198) and working adults (N = 198) participated in an online experiment. Findings indicated that individuals’ beliefs about the instrumentality of desirable work related outcomes are essential to determining their perceptions of fit and organizational attraction. Additionally, organizational personality perceptions interacted with need motivation to affect perceptions of fit and organizational attraction. For instance, perceptions of fit mediated the influence of the interaction between need for achievement and perceptions of innovativeness on organizational attraction. The interaction of need motivation and perceptions of organizational personality helped individuals to better determine their perceptions of fit and subsequent attraction toward organizations.^

Development of safety performance functions for SafetyAnalyst applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

The *validation of an instrument for the assessment of study behaviors of high school students

The purpose of this study is to validate the Study Behavior Inventory-High School, an instrument designed to measure study behaviors of high school students and to determine the stability of its scores across populations and across grades. Numerous studies have shown the relationship between the level of students' use of appropriate study behaviors and their levels of academic achievement and this is particularly relevant at a time of increasing demands for school and teacher accountability for their students' academic achievement. ^ The instrument was administered to 3,336 students in grades 9 through 12 in four high schools in diverse parts of the United States. Factor analysis yielded a four factor structure for the instrument and evidence for its construct validity was obtained using convergent and discriminant methods. The four factors include academic self-perception and feelings of low self-efficacy, academic preparation behaviors, time management, and the social nature of taking tests and studying. Internal consistency reliability for the scores on each of the four factors was calculated and found to range between .68 and .87. Finally, confirmatory factor analysis indicated acceptable levels of fit between the factor structure obtained in this study and an earlier one obtained during a pilot study using 800 participants. ^ The SBI-HS appears to be a valid and reliable instrument for the measure of study behaviors in high school students. ^