The streaming of 1.3-2.3 MeV cosmic-ray protons during periods between prompt solar particle events

The anisotropy of 1.3 - 2.3 MeV protons in interplanetary space has been measured using the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer aboard IMP-7 for 317 6-hour periods from 72/273 to 74/2. Periods dominated by prompt solar particle events are not included. The convective and diffusive anisotropies are determined from the observed anisotropy using concurrent solar wind speed measurements and observed energy spectra. The diffusive flow of particles is found to be typically toward the sun, indicating a positive radial gradient in the particle density. This anisotropy is inconsistent with previously proposed sources of low-energy proton increases seen at 1 AU which involve continual solar acceleration.

The typical properties of this new component of low-energy cosmic rays have been determine d for this period which is near solar minimum. The particles have a median intensity of 0.06 protons/ cm^(2)-sec-sr-MeV and a mean spectral index of -3.15.The amplitude of the diffusive anisotropy is approximately proportional to the solar wind speed. The rate at which particles are diffusing toward the sun is larger than the rate at which the solar wind is convecting the particles away from the sun. The 20 to 1 proton to alpha ratio typical of this new component has been reported by Mewaldt, et al. (1975b).

A propagation model with κ_(rr) assumed independent of radius and energy is used to show that the anisotropy could be due to increases similar to those found by McDonald, et al. (1975) at ~3 AU. The interplanetary Fermi-acceleration model proposed by Fisk (1976) to explain the increases seen near 3 AU is not consistent with the ~12 per cent diffusive anisotropy found.

The dependence of the diffusive anisotropy on various parameters is shown. A strong dependence of the direction of the diffusive anisotropy on the concurrently measured magnetic field direction is found, indicating a κ_⊥ less than κ_∥ to be typical for this large data set.

Source characteristics of recent and historic earthquakes in Central and Southern California: results from forward modeling

The long- and short-period body waves of a number of moderate earthquakes occurring in central and southern California recorded at regional (200-1400 km) and teleseismic (> 30°) distances are modeled to obtain the source parameters-focal mechanism, depth, seismic moment, and source time history. The modeling is done in the time domain using a forward modeling technique based on ray summation. A simple layer over a half space velocity model is used with additional layers being added if necessary-for example, in a basin with a low velocity lid.

The earthquakes studied fall into two geographic regions: 1) the western Transverse Ranges, and 2) the western Imperial Valley. Earthquakes in the western Transverse Ranges include the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake, several offshore earthquakes that occurred between 1969 and 1981, and aftershocks to the 1983 Coalinga earthquake (these actually occurred north of the Transverse Ranges but share many characteristics with those that occurred there). These earthquakes are predominantly thrust faulting events with the average strike being east-west, but with many variations. Of the six earthquakes which had sufficient short-period data to accurately determine the source time history, five were complex events. That is, they could not be modeled as a simple point source, but consisted of two or more subevents. The subevents of the Whittier Narrows earthquake had different focal mechanisms. In the other cases, the subevents appear to be the same, but small variations could not be ruled out.

The recent Imperial Valley earthquakes modeled include the two 1987 Superstition Hills earthquakes and the 1969 Coyote Mountain earthquake. All are strike-slip events, and the second 1987 earthquake is a complex event With non-identical subevents.

In all the earthquakes studied, and particularly the thrust events, constraining the source parameters required modeling several phases and distance ranges. Teleseismic P waves could provide only approximate solutions. P_(nl) waves were probably the most useful phase in determining the focal mechanism, with additional constraints supplied by the SH waves when available. Contamination of the SH waves by shear-coupled PL waves was a frequent problem. Short-period data were needed to obtain the source time function.

In addition to the earthquakes mentioned above, several historic earthquakes were also studied. Earthquakes that occurred before the existence of dense local and worldwide networks are difficult to model due to the sparse data set. It has been noticed that earthquakes that occur near each other often produce similar waveforms implying similar source parameters. By comparing recent well studied earthquakes to historic earthquakes in the same region, better constraints can be placed on the source parameters of the historic events.

The Lompoc earthquake (M=7) of 1927 is the largest offshore earthquake to occur in California this century. By direct comparison of waveforms and amplitudes with the Coalinga and Santa Lucia Banks earthquakes, the focal mechanism (thrust faulting on a northwest striking fault) and long-period seismic moment (10^(26) dyne cm) can be obtained. The S-P travel times are consistent with an offshore location, rather than one in the Hosgri fault zone.

Historic earthquakes in the western Imperial Valley were also studied. These events include the 1942 and 1954 earthquakes. The earthquakes were relocated by comparing S-P and R-S times to recent earthquakes. It was found that only minor changes in the epicenters were required but that the Coyote Mountain earthquake may have been more severely mislocated. The waveforms as expected indicated that all the events were strike-slip. Moment estimates were obtained by comparing the amplitudes of recent and historic events at stations which recorded both. The 1942 event was smaller than the 1968 Borrego Mountain earthquake although some previous studies suggested the reverse. The 1954 and 1937 earthquakes had moments close to the expected value. An aftershock of the 1942 earthquake appears to be larger than previously thought.

Solar System Small-Body Demographics with the Palomar Transient Factory Survey

Observational studies of our solar system's small-body populations (asteroids and comets) offer insight into the history of our planetary system, as these minor planets represent the left-over building blocks from its formation. The Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) survey began in 2009 as the latest wide-field sky-survey program to be conducted on the 1.2-meter Samuel Oschin telescope at Palomar Observatory. Though its main science program has been the discovery of high-energy extragalactic sources (such as supernovae), during its first five years PTF has collected nearly five million observations of over half a million unique solar system small bodies. This thesis begins to analyze this vast data set to address key population-level science topics, including: the detection rates of rare main-belt comets and small near-Earth asteroids, the spin and shape properties of asteroids as inferred from their lightcurves, the applicability of this visible light data to the interpretation of ultraviolet asteroid observations, and a comparison of the physical properties of main-belt and Jovian Trojan asteroids. Future sky-surveys would benefit from application of the analytical techniques presented herein, which include novel modeling methods and unique applications of machine-learning classification. The PTF asteroid small-body data produced in the course of this thesis work should remain a fertile source of solar system science and discovery for years to come.

Monitoring the trophic status of reservoirs

The current situation of regional, rather' than national, problems of eutrophication in standing waters has been widely aired in recent reports. A reliable, quantitative data base is a prerequisite to future trend monitoring, a concensus view of those reports. The objective of this report is to establish requirements, methodology and a minimal data set for nutrient and algae status in water supply reservoirs in England which may be used as a protocol for future trend monitoring.A pilot study has been carried out to assess the relative merits of different sampling strategies, the choice of which has major implications for the cost of sample collection. This short report suggests that consider the possibility of designating a few sites as ”baseline sites” at which detailed changes in trophic status as monitored by the more labour-intensive parameters would be collected on a regular, long term basis to help in the interpretation of the low cost survey results.

Active reservoir management: a model solution

Steady-state procedures, of their very nature, cannot deal with dynamic situations. Statistical models require extensive calibration, and predictions often have to be made for environmental conditions which are often outside the original calibration conditions. In addition, the calibration requirement makes them difficult to transfer to other lakes. To date, no computer programs have been developed which will successfully predict changes in species of algae. The obvious solution to these limitations is to apply our limnological knowledge to the problem and develop functional models, so reducing the requirement for such rigorous calibration. Reynolds has proposed a model, based on fundamental principles of algal response to environmental events, which has successfully recreated the maximum observed biomass, the timing of events and a fair simulation of the species succession in several lakes. A forerunner of this model was developed jointly with Welsh Water under contract to Messrs. Wallace Evans and Partners, for use in the Cardiff Bay Barrage study. In this paper the authors test a much developed form of this original model against a more complex data-set and, using a simple example, show how it can be applied as an aid in the choice of management strategy for the reduction of problems caused by eutrophication. Some further developments of the model are indicated.

Use of macroinvertebrate communities to detect environmental stress in running waters

This paper presents an account of some current uses of RIVPACS (River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System), a software package developed by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (UK). Background information is also given on the unique data-set on which the system is based. Before discussing RIVPACS, we consider the range of environmental stresses encountered in flowing-water systems and some of the ways in which stresses may affect macroinvertebrate communities. The wide application and relevance of the RIVPACS approach was recognised when it was chosen as the biological method for use throughout the UK in the 1990 River Quality Survey (RQS). In the concluding section we list some lessons learnt both from the 1990 survey and from our own testing exercise, and we outline current developments which will lead to a new version of RIVPACS for use in the 1995 RQS.

Feature Selection for Speech Emotion Recognition in Spanish and Basque: On the Use of Machine Learning to Improve Human-Computer Interaction

Study of emotions in human-computer interaction is a growing research area. This paper shows an attempt to select the most significant features for emotion recognition in spoken Basque and Spanish Languages using different methods for feature selection. RekEmozio database was used as the experimental data set. Several Machine Learning paradigms were used for the emotion classification task. Experiments were executed in three phases, using different sets of features as classification variables in each phase. Moreover, feature subset selection was applied at each phase in order to seek for the most relevant feature subset. The three phases approach was selected to check the validity of the proposed approach. Achieved results show that an instance-based learning algorithm using feature subset selection techniques based on evolutionary algorithms is the best Machine Learning paradigm in automatic emotion recognition, with all different feature sets, obtaining a mean of 80,05% emotion recognition rate in Basque and a 74,82% in Spanish. In order to check the goodness of the proposed process, a greedy searching approach (FSS-Forward) has been applied and a comparison between them is provided. Based on achieved results, a set of most relevant non-speaker dependent features is proposed for both languages and new perspectives are suggested.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Zonation of submerged vegetation in Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe and its ecological interpretation

The submerged vegetation of Lake Kariba is described in relation to degree of slope (lake morphometry), depth and light transparency. The direct gradient analysis technique - canonical correspondence analysis and the TWINSPAN classification programs were used to analyse the data set. The western end of the lake with low transparency has a low species diversity (with Vallisneria aethiopica dominating). Species diversity increases with increased transparency in the other parts of the lake. The classification revealed monospecific communities for all species as well as mixed communities with Lagarosiphon as the associate species with the broadest distribution. The ordination revealed a first axis strongly related to the depth and transparency gradients and the second axis related to slope.

Association between CASP8-652 6N Del Polymorphism (rs3834129) and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Results from a Multi-Centric Study

The common 2652 6N del variant in the CASP8 promoter (rs3834129) has been described as a putative low-penetrance risk factor for different cancer types. In particular, some studies suggested that the deleted allele (del) was inversely associated with CRC risk while other analyses failed to confirm this. Hence, to better understand the role of this variant in the risk of developing CRC, we performed a multi-centric case-control study. In the study, the variant 2652 6N del was genotyped in a total of 6,733 CRC cases and 7,576 controls recruited by six different centers located in Spain, Italy, USA, England, Czech Republic and the Netherlands collaborating to the international consortium COGENT (COlorectal cancer GENeTics). Our analysis indicated that rs3834129 was not associated with CRC risk in the full data set. However, the del allele was under-represented in one set of cases with a family history of CRC (per allele model OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.69-0.90) suggesting this allele might be a protective factor versus familial CRC. Since this multi-centric case-control study was performed on a very large sample size, it provided robust clarification of the effect of rs3834129 on the risk of developing CRC in Caucasians.

Age-specific movement patterns of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in Alaska

Over 34,000 age 0–2 juvenile sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) were tagged and released in southeast Alaska waters during 1985–2005. The data set resulting from this tagging study was unusual because of its time span (20 years) and because age could be reliably inferred from release length (i.e., tagged and released fish were of known age); thus, age-specific movement patterns could be examined. The depth- and area-related recovery patterns supported the concepts that sablefish move to deeper water with age and migrate counterclockwise in the Gulf of Alaska. Availability to the fishery increased rapidly for fish of younger ages, peaked at age 5 to 6, and then gradually declined as sablefish moved deeper with age. Decreased availability with age may occur because of lower fishing effort in deep water and could have substantial implications for sablef ish stock assessments because “domeshaped” availability influences the reliability of abundance estimates. The area-related recovery pattern was not affected by year-class strength; i.e., there was no significant densitydependent relationship.

Decline in condition of northern bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the Gulf of Maine

The northern bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is a highly mobile apex predator in the Gulf of Maine. Despite current stock assessments that indicate historically high abundance of its main prey, Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), commercial fishermen have observed declines in the somatic condition of northern bluefin tuna during the last decade. We examined this claim by reviewing detailed logbooks of northern bluefin tuna condition from a local fishermen’s cooperative and applying multinomial regression, a robust tool for exploring how a categorical variable may be related to other variables of interest. The data set contained >3082 observations of condition (fat and oil content and fish shape) from fish landed between 1991 and 2004. Energy from stored lipids is used for migration and reproduction; therefore a reduction in energy acquisition on bluefin tuna feeding grounds could diminish allocations to growth and gamete production and have detrimental consequences for rebuilding the western Atlantic population. A decline in northern bluefin tuna somatic condition could indicate substantial changes in the bottom-up transfer of energy in the Gulf of Maine, shifts in their reproductive or migratory patterns, impacts of fishing pressure, or synergistic effects from multiple causes.

Inferring Population Genetic Structure in Widely and Continuously Distributed Carnivores: The Stone Marten (Martes foina) as a Case Study

The stone marten is a widely distributed mustelid in the Palaearctic region that exhibits variable habitat preferences in different parts of its range. The species is a Holocene immigrant from southwest Asia which, according to fossil remains, followed the expansion of the Neolithic farming cultures into Europe and possibly colonized the Iberian Peninsula during the Early Neolithic (ca. 7,000 years BP). However, the population genetic structure and historical biogeography of this generalist carnivore remains essentially unknown. In this study we have combined mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing (621 bp) and microsatellite genotyping (23 polymorphic markers) to infer the population genetic structure of the stone marten within the Iberian Peninsula. The mtDNA data revealed low haplotype and nucleotide diversities and a lack of phylogeographic structure, most likely due to a recent colonization of the Iberian Peninsula by a few mtDNA lineages during the Early Neolithic. The microsatellite data set was analysed with a) spatial and non-spatial Bayesian individual-based clustering (IBC) approaches (STRUCTURE, TESS, BAPS and GENELAND), and b) multivariate methods [discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and spatial principal component analysis (sPCA)]. Additionally, because isolation by distance (IBD) is a common spatial genetic pattern in mobile and continuously distributed species and it may represent a challenge to the performance of the above methods, the microsatellite data set was tested for its presence. Overall, the genetic structure of the stone marten in the Iberian Peninsula was characterized by a NE-SW spatial pattern of IBD, and this may explain the observed disagreement between clustering solutions obtained by the different IBC methods. However, there was significant indication for contemporary genetic structuring, albeit weak, into at least three different subpopulations. The detected subdivision could be attributed to the influence of the rivers Ebro, Tagus and Guadiana, suggesting that main watercourses in the Iberian Peninsula may act as semi-permeable barriers to gene flow in stone martens. To our knowledge, this is the first phylogeographic and population genetic study of the species at a broad regional scale. We also wanted to make the case for the importance and benefits of using and comparing multiple different clustering and multivariate methods in spatial genetic analyses of mobile and continuously distributed species.

Exploring the use of neural networks for biomass forecasts in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem

A pilot study was conducted to study the ability of an artificial neural network to predict the biomass of Peruvian anchoveta Engraulis ringens, given time series of earlier biomasses, and of environmental parameters (ocenographic data and predator abundances). Acceptable predictions of three months or more appear feasible after thorough scrutiny of the input data set.

Anisotropic expansion and SNIa: An open issue

We review the appropriateness of using SNIa observations to detect potential signatures of anisotropic expansion in the Universe. We focus on Union2 and SNLS3 SNIa datasets and use the hemispherical comparison method to detect possible anisotropic features. Unlike some previous works where nondiagonal elements of the covariance matrix were neglected, we use the full covariance matrix of the SNIa data, thus obtaining more realistic and not underestimated errors. As a matter of fact, the significance of previously claimed detections of a preferred direction in the Union2 dataset completely disappears once we include the effects of using the full covariance matrix. Moreover, we also find that such apreferred direction is aligned with the orthogonal direction of the SDSS observational plane and this suggests a clear indication that the SDSS subsample of the Union2 dataset introduces a significant bias, making the detected preferred direction unphysical. We thus find that current SNIa surveys are inappropriate to test anisotropic features due to their highly non-homogeneous angular distribution in the sky. In addition, after removal of the highest in homogeneous sub-samples, the number of SNIa is too low. Finally, we take advantage of the particular distribution of SNLS SNIa sub- sample in the SNLS3 data set, in which the observations were taken along four different directions. We fit each direction independently and find consistent results at the 1 sigma level. Although the likelihoods peak at relatively different values of Omega(m), the low number of data along each direction gives rise to large errors so that the likelihoods are sufficiently broad as to overlap within 1 sigma. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/).