Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

Multiple paternity and its consequences in the white campion " Silene latifolia "

Summary Several studies have demonstrated that the number of pollen donors siring seeds of individual fruits is frequently greater than one and, consequently, that plants have multiple mates. Multiple paternity can have important consequences at the population level. It influences the genetic variability of a population, the reproductive success of males and the fitness of females and future generations. It also influences male-male interactions for fertilization and it is fundamental in providing opportunity of female choice. I investigated the occurrence and the importance of multiple paternity within fruits in natural populations of the dioecious Silene latifolia using microsatellite DNA markers, especially developed for this study. I found that multiple paternity occurs in all populations investigated in the European range of the species, varying from one to nine sires per fruit with a mean of three, suggesting that multiple paternity is highly prevalent in natural populations. In the presence of multiple paternity I investigated if there was a female genotype influence on siring success of the males. I used the same pollen mixture from two males and applied it to three replicate females of different relatedness (two full sisters and one unrelated). I found female genotype influence in one of the two populations investigated, which might reflect different population history. Since these results suggested some degree of female choice, we investigated whether the occurrence of multiple paternity and post-pollination selection could provide opportunity for inbreeding avoidance. First, I measured inbreeding depression at different life-cycle stages for offspring obtained by single-donor crosses with brothers or unrelated males replicated on distinct flowers on the same female plant. To address inbreeding avoidance, I determined paternity in crosses using mixed pollen loads of the two males. I found significant inbreeding depression in the studied population, even under benign experimental conditions, and although the unrelated male did not sire significantly more offspring, there was an effect of genetic dissimilarity on paternity. This suggests that paternity is affected by relatedness among mates, but maybe additionally affected by other factors such as pollen competitive ability or male-female interactions. Using inbred and outbred crosses, I further investigated sex ratio bias inheritance in this species, and found that sex ratio bias of the parental generation was significantly correlated to pollen germination success of the F2 generation, which suggests that sex ratio bias in this species results from the specific X/Y combination and not only on Y performance. An effect of X and Y is consistent with sex chromosome meiotic drive. In conclusion, I found multiple paternity to be widespread in the study species and that females of similar genotype produce similar paternity shares. I found that inbreeding depression is substantial, therefore receiving pollen from several donors might lead to fewer inbred offspring, I also found an effect of genetic dissimilarity on paternity shares, which indicates that there is some ability to discriminate against related pollen, although this seems not to be the only determinant of paternity outcome. Finally I found sex ratio bias to be dependent on both X and Y chromosomes as predicted by sex chromosome meiotic drive. Résumé Plusieurs études ont démontré qu'il n'était pas rare que les graines contenues dans un même fruit soient issues de la fécondation par plusieurs pollens provenant de mâles différents, ce qui sous-entend que les plantes peuvent avoir plusieurs partenaires sexuels. La paternité multiple peut avoir d'importantes conséquences au niveau populationnel dans la mesure où elle peut influencer le degré de variabilité génétique de la population, le succès reproducteur des mâles, la fitness des femelles et des futures générations. La paternité multiple peut également avoir un impact sur les interactions mâle-mâle lors de la fertilisation et peut être considérée comme fondamentale vis-à-vis de la femelle, qui y trouve alors une opportunité de choisir son ou ses partenaires. Dans le cadre de ce travail de thèse j'ai cherché à déterminer si la paternité multiple était un phénomène observable et important dans les populations naturelles de l'espèce dioïque, Silene latifolia. Pour ce faire, j'ai utilisé des marqueurs microsatellites, spécialement développés pour cette étude. J'ai observé des phénomènes de paternité multiple dans toutes les populations de l'étude, réparties dans l'aire de distribution européenne de l'espèce. Le nombre de pères par fruit varie de un à neuf, avec un nombre moyen de trois, ce qui signifie que la paternité multiple est très répandue dans les populations naturelles. En raison de ces résultats, je me suis demandée si le génotype de la femelle influence le succès de paternité des mâles. J'ai alors réalisé des pollinisations manuelles sur la base d'un mélange de pollens issus de deux mâles, que j'ai appliqué sur trois femelles (réplicats) présentant différents degrés d'apparentement (deux soeurs. et une femelle étrangère). Il ressort de cette expérience que le génotype de la femelle peut influencer la paternité dans l'une des deux populations étudiées, ce qui pourrait refléter des différences en terme d'histoire des populations. Dans la mesure où ces résultats suggèrent un certain degré de choix chez la femelle, j'ai cherché à savoir si la paternité multiple et la sélection post-pollinisation pouvaient être des moyens d'éviter les croisements consanguins. Dans un premier temps, j'ai évalué la dépression de consanguinité à différentes étapes du cycle de vie chez des descendants issus de croisements à un seul donneur, celui-ci étant alternativement un frère ou un étranger, répliqués sur plusieurs fleurs d'une même plante femelle. Afin d'estimer l'évitement de croisements consanguins, j'ai effectué des croisements dont le pollen était un mélange des deux mâles (frère et étranger), puis j'ai déterminé la paternité dans les fruits obtenus. J'ai pu mettre en évidence un effet de dépression de consanguinité- significatif dans les populations étudiées, même dans des conditions expérimentales moins rudes qu'à l'extérieur. Bien que le mâle étranger n'ait pas engendré un nombre significativement plus important de graines, il y avait un effet de dissimilarité génétique sur la paternité. Ceci suggère que la paternité est affectée par le degré d'apparentement entre les partenaires, mais qu'elle peut aussi être affectée par d'autres facteurs tels que la compétitivité du pollen ou encore par les interactions mâles-femelles. L'utilisation de croisements consanguins et hybrides m'a également permis d'étudier l'héritabilité du biais de sex ratio chez cette espèce. Il s'est avéré que le biais de sex ratio de la génération parentale était significativement corrélé au succès de germination du pollen de la génération F2, ce qui signifie que, chez cette espèce, le biais de sex ratio résulte d'une combinaison spécifique de X/Y et non uniquement de la performance de Y. Un effet de X et Y est compatible avec l'hypothèse de distorsion de ségrégation méiotique des chromosomes sexuels. En conclusion, il ressort de mes résultats que la paternité multiple est un phénomène largement répandu chez S. latifolia et la paternité accomplie par un mâle est plus similaire entre soeurs qu'avec une femelle étrangère J'ai également mis en évidence que la dépression de consanguinité a un impact considérable; aussi, recevoir du pollen de plusieurs donneurs différents pourrait permettre à la femelle de produire moins de descendants consanguins. J'ai aussi trouvé un effet de la dissimilarité génétique sur le partage de paternité, ce qui indique que la discrimination contre le pollen d'apparentés est possible, bien que cela ne semble pas être le seul facteur déterminant dans le résultat de la paternité. Enfin, j'ai trouvé que le biais de sex ratio est dépendant des deux chromosomes X et Y, conformément à la théorie de distorsion de ségrégation méiotique des chromosomes sexuels.

Genome-wide patterns of latitudinal differentiation among populations of Drosophila melanogaster from North America.

Understanding the genetic underpinnings of adaptive change is a fundamental but largely unresolved problem in evolutionary biology. Drosophila melanogaster, an ancestrally tropical insect that has spread to temperate regions and become cosmopolitan, offers a powerful opportunity for identifying the molecular polymorphisms underlying clinal adaptation. Here, we use genome-wide next-generation sequencing of DNA pools ('pool-seq') from three populations collected along the North American east coast to examine patterns of latitudinal differentiation. Comparing the genomes of these populations is particularly interesting since they exhibit clinal variation in a number of important life history traits. We find extensive latitudinal differentiation, with many of the most strongly differentiated genes involved in major functional pathways such as the insulin/TOR, ecdysone, torso, EGFR, TGFβ/BMP, JAK/STAT, immunity and circadian rhythm pathways. We observe particularly strong differentiation on chromosome 3R, especially within the cosmopolitan inversion In(3R)Payne, which contains a large number of clinally varying genes. While much of the differentiation might be driven by clinal differences in the frequency of In(3R)P, we also identify genes that are likely independent of this inversion. Our results provide genome-wide evidence consistent with pervasive spatially variable selection acting on numerous loci and pathways along the well-known North American cline, with many candidates implicated in life history regulation and exhibiting parallel differentiation along the previously investigated Australian cline.

Towards an emotion-driven interactive music system: ridging the gaps between affect, physiology and sound generation

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Stanford University from January until June 2007. Music is well known for affecting human emotional states, yet the relationship between specific musical parameters and emotional responses is still not clear. With the advent of new human-computer interaction (HCI) technologies, it is now possible to derive emotion-related information from physiological data and use it as an input to interactive music systems. Providing such implicit musical HCI will be highly relevant for a number of applications including music therapy, diagnosis, nteractive gaming, and physiologically-based musical instruments. A key question in such physiology-based compositions is how sound synthesis parameters can be mapped to emotional states of valence and arousal. We used both verbal and heart rate responses to evaluate the affective power of five musical parameters. Our results show that a significant correlation exists between heart rate and the subjective evaluation of well-defined musical parameters. Brightness and loudness showed to be arousing parameters on subjective scale while harmonicity and even partial attenuation factor resulted in heart rate changes typically associated to valence. This demonstrates that a rational approach to designing emotion-driven music systems for our public installations and music therapy applications is possible.

Responsibility for regional waste generation: A single region extended input-output analysis with uni-directional trade flows

The paper uses a regional input-output (IO) framework and data derived on waste generation by industry to examine regional accountability for waste generation. In addition to estimating a series of industry output-waste coefficients, the paper considers two methods for waste attribution but focuses first on one (trade endogenised linear attribution system (TELAS)) that permits a greater focus on private and public final consumption as the main exogenous driver of waste generation. Second, the paper uses a domestic technology assumption (DTA) to consider a regional ‘waste footprint’ where local consumption requirements are assumed to be met through domestic production.

Two's company, three's a crowd: experimental evaluation of the evolutionary maintenance of trioecy in Mercurialis annua (Euphorbiaceae).

Trioecy is an uncommon sexual system in which males, females, and hermaphrodites co-occur as three clearly different gender classes. The evolutionary stability of trioecy is unclear, but would depend on factors such as hermaphroditic sex allocation and rates of outcrossing vs. selfing. Here, trioecious populations of Mercurialis annua are described for the first time. We examined the frequencies of females, males and hermaphrodites across ten natural populations and evaluated the association between the frequency of females and plant densities. Previous studies have shown that selfing rates in this species are density-dependent and are reduced in the presence of males, which produce substantially more pollen than hermaphrodites. Accordingly, we examined the evolutionary stability of trioecy using an experiment in which we (a) indirectly manipulated selfing rates by altering plant densities and the frequency of males in a fully factorial manner across 20 experimental plots and (b) examined the effect of these manipulations on the frequency of the three sex phenotypes in the next generation of plants. In the parental generation, we measured the seed and pollen allocations of hermaphrodites and compared them with allocations by unisexual plants. In natural populations, females occurred at higher frequencies in denser patches, a finding consistent with our expectations. Under our experimental conditions, however, no combination of plant densities and male frequencies was associated with increased frequencies of females. Our results suggest that the factors that regulate female frequencies in trioecious populations of M. annua are independent of those regulating male frequencies (density), and that the stable co-existence of all three sex phenotypes within populations is unlikely.

Cohort effects within firms, and their implications for labour market outcomes and the business cycle

The project aims to achieve two objectives. First, we are analysing the labour market implications of the assumption that firms cannot pay similarly qualified employees differently according to when they joined the firm. For example, if the general situation for workers improves, a firm that seeks to hire new workers may feel it has to pay more to new hires. However, if the firm must pay the same wage to new hires and incumbents due to equal treatment, it would either have to raise the wage of the incumbents, or offer new workers a lower wage than the firm would do otherwise. This is very different from the standard assumption in economic analysis that firms are free to treat newly hired workers independently of existing hires. Second, we will use detailed data on individual wages to try to gauge whether (and to what extent) equity is a feature of actual labour markets. To investigate this, we are using two matched employer-employee panel datasets, one from Portugal and the other from Brazil. These unique datasets provide objective records on millions of workers and their firms over a long period of time, so that we can identify which firms employ which workers at each time. The datasets also include a large number of firm and worker variables.

Establiment de bases científiques per al desenvolupament d'una estratègia integrada per avaluar toxicitat en reproducció

Report for the scientific sojourn at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Netherlands, from 2006 to 2008. This project aimed at creating scientific elements that could help deriving an integrated testing strategy for reproductive toxicity. Part of the project focused on the use of alternative tests for regulatory purposes. An in vitro-in vivo extrapolation method for embryotoxicity was proposed and evaluated. In vitro and in vivo dose descriptors were correlated; however, the scatter in the correlation was too large to allow an accurate estimation of an in vivo dose from an in vitro dose. The in vitro-in vivo extrapolation method together with toxicokinetic data was also applied to a category of substances (phthalates). Although based on a limited number of substances, the results suggested that in vitro-in vivo extrapolation for embryotoxicity is possible within a category of compounds if adequate toxicokinetic data is available. Because of the limitations that still remain in the use of alternative tests for reproductive toxicicity, other approaches to reduce animal testing were explored. Thus, a database of reproductive toxicity studies was created to retrospectively evaluate the comparative value of some studies or elements in a particular study. When compared to the subchronic toxicity study, the rat two-generation reproductive toxicity study had a considerable impact on the identification of hazard for reproductive toxicity, but not on the overall NOAEL. Among the two-generation studies included in our database, the second generation affected neither the overall NOAEL nor the critical effect. The rat and the rabbit developmental toxicity studies were, on average, similarly sensitive. However, for certain substances the developmental study in either one of the two species appeared to be more sensitive than in the other species.

Social evolution in the sweat bee Halictus scabiosae

The evolution of eusociality is one of the major evolutionary transitions of life on earth. For investigating the conditions and processes that are central to the origin of such integrated social organization, it is best to study organisms in which individuals have retained some flexibility in their reproductive strategies. Halictid bees are especially well suited as model organisms, because they show huge variation in social systems, both within and between species. In this thesis, I investigated female reproductive strategies in the primitively eusocial bee Halictus scabiosae, with a focus on the role of helpers, in order to get insight into the mechanisms governing the evolution and maintenance of eusociality. This species produces two broods per year. The females from the first brood can stay in the natal nest to help raise a second brood of males and gynes that become the next-generation foundresses in spring. We first compared the morphology of females from the two broods, as well as the nutrition they receive as larvae. Then we conducted a helper- removal experiment in the field to quantify the effects of the presence of helpers on colony survival and productivity. Finally, we reconstructed pedigree relationships of individuals using microsatellite markers in order to detect who reproduces in the nest and how much individuals drift between nests. We found that first brood females had a uniformly small size and low fat reserves, which may be caused by the restricted pollen and nectar provisions on which they develop. Colony survival and productivity was increased by the presence of a single helper, but the effect was small and mostly limited to small colonies. By inferring parentage within and across colonies, we could determine that females from the first brood rarely reproduce in their natal nests. However, foundresses are frequently replaced, and foundresses and females from the first brood occasionally move to and reproduce in foreign colonies. As a result, colonies often contain offspring from unrelated individuals, and the relatedness of females to the brood they rear is low. Overall, this thesis shows that the reproductive system of H. scabiosae is highly flexible. The production of helpers in the first brood is important for colony success and productivity, but there is a high colony failure rate and part of the first brood females drift and reproduce in foreign nests. Both foundresses and helpers appear to be constrained by harsh environmental conditions or social factors limiting reproduction and independent colony founding. - L'origine des insectes sociaux est un domaine fascinant pour la recherche. Pour comprendre les mécanismes et les conditions qui sont nécessaires pour l'évolution et le maintien de la vie en société, il est judicieux d'étudier des sociétés primitives d'insectes, où toutes les femelles ont conservé la capacité de se reproduire, même si leur rôle comportemental dans la colonie est d'aider sans se reproduire. Une des familles d'abeilles, les halictes, est idéale pour cette sorte de recherche, en raison de la grande variabilité dans leur comportement social. Dans cette thèse, j'ai étudié les stratégies reproductives des femelles de Halictus scabiosae pour mieux comprendre les mécanismes qui influencent l'évolution de la vie en société. Cette espèce produit deux cohortes de couvain par année. Les femelles du premier couvain restent souvent dans leur nid natal pour aider à élever le deuxième couvain, tandis que les femelles du deuxième couvain s'accouplent et hibernent pour devenir les nouvelles fondatrices au printemps suivant. Nous avons d'abord comparé la morphologie des femelles issues des deux couvains ainsi que leur nutrition au stade de larve. Puis, dans une expérience sur le terrain, nous avons quantifié l'apport d'une ouvrière pour la survie et la productivité de la colonie. Finalement, nous avons reconstruit des pedigrees en utilisant des marqueurs génétiques, pour savoir qui se reproduit dans la colonie et combien d'individus migrent entre colonies. Les résultats montrent que les femelles du premier couvain sont uniformément plus petites et plus maigres, ce qui indique que les fondatrices réduisent les provisions de nourriture pour leur premier couvain afin de les inciter à aider dans le nid au lieu de se reproduire indépendamment. Dans l'expérience sur le terrain, la survie et la productivité de la colonie augmentaient avec la présence d'une ouvrière additionnelle, mais l'effet était petit et limité aux petites colonies. Par la reconstruction de pedigrees, nous pouvions constater que les femelles du premier couvain pondent rarement dans leurs nids natals. Les fondatrices cependant sont souvent remplacées en cours de saison, et migrent fréquemment entre nids, tandis que les femelles du premier couvain pondent parfois des oeufs dans des nids étrangers. De ce fait, les colonies contiennent souvent des descendants d'individus étrangers, et la parenté génétique entre les femelles et le deuxième couvain est basse. Cette thèse démontre que le système reproductif de H. scabiosae est très flexible. La production d'ouvrières est importante pour la survie de la colonie et sa productivité, mais le taux d'échec est élevé et une partie des femelles du premier couvain migrent et pondent dans une colonie étrangère. Autant les fondatrices que les ouvrières semblent être contraintes par des conditions environnementales ou sociales qui limitent la reproduction et les nouvelles fondations de colonie. - Die Entstehung von sozialen Lebensformen ist eines der wichtigsten Entwicklungen in der Geschichte des Lebens. Um die Bedingungen oder Prozesse zu verstehen, welche bei der Entstehung und dem Erhalt von sozialen Merkmalen wichtig sind, sollte man Lebewesen untersuchen, welche je nach Umwelteinflüßen ihr soziales Verhalten flexibel ändern können. Furchenbienen (Halictidae) gehören dazu. Diese weisen nämlich ein breites Spektrum verschiedener sozialer Organisationsformen auf, oftmals sogar innerhalb der einzelnen Arten. In meiner Doktorarbeit befasste ich mich mit den Fortpflanzungsstrategien der Weibchen der Skabiosen-Furchenbiene Halictus scabiosae. Diese Art produziert zwei Brüten pro Jahr. Die Weibchen der ersten Brut bleiben dabei meist als Arbeiterinnen in ihrem Geburtsnest, wohingegen die Weibchen der zweiten Brut nach der Paarung überwintern, um im nächsten Frühling neue Kolonien zu gründen. In einem ersten Schritt verglichen wir die beiden Brüten bezüglich der Grösse und der Fettreserven der Weibchen sowie der Pollen-Nektar-Vorräte für die Larven. Dann bestimmten wir in einem Feldexperiment, wieviel eine zusätzliche Arbeiterin zum Überleben und zur Produktiviät der Kolonie beiträgt. Schliesslich ermittelten wir durch genetische Tests die Verwandtschaftsbeziehungen zwischen den Bienen, um herauszufinden, wer in den Kolonien tatsächlich die Eier legt und ob und wieviel die Bienen zwischen verschiedenen Nestern wandern. Wir stellten fest, dass die Weibchen von der ersten Brut einheitlich kleiner sind und weniger Fettreserven besitzen. Das weist daraufhin, dass die Nestgründerin die erste Brut unterernährt, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit zu erhöhen, dass diese Weibchen als Arbeiterinnen im Nest bleiben anstatt sich unabhängig fortzupflanzen. Schon eine einzelne zusätzliche Arbeiterin verbesserte die Überlebenschancen und Produktivität der Kolonie, der Effekt war allerdings klein und auf kleine Kolonien beschränkt. Die Verwandtschaftsanalysen zeigten, dass die Arbeiterinnen nur sehr selten ein Ei in ihr Geburtsnest legen. Erstaunlicherweise wanderten die Nestgründerinnen oft zwischen verschiedenen Nestern. Einige Weibchen der ersten Brut wanderten auch in ein fremdes Nest und produzierten dort Nachkommen. Diese Doktorarbeit zeigt, dass die Fortpflanzungsstrategien der Skabiosen-Furchenbiene tatsächlich sehr flexibel sind. Die Anwesenheit von Arbeiterinnen ist wichtig für das Überleben und die Produktivität der Kolonie. Die Misserfolgsraten bleiben jedoch hoch, und ein Teil der Weibchen der ersten Brut pflanzt sich in fremden Nestern fort. Sowohl die Nestgründerinnen als auch die Weibchen der ersten Brut scheinen durch Umweltsbedingungen oder durch soziale Faktoren in der Wahl ihrer Fortpflanzungs¬strategie eingeschränkt zu sein.

(No)competition in the Spanish retailing gasoline market: a variance filter approach

Various methodologies in economic literature have been used to analyse the international hydrocarbon retail sector. Nevertheless at a Spanish level these studies are much more recent and most conclude that generally there is no effective competition present in this market, regardless of the approach used. In this paper, in order to analyse the price levels in the Spanish petrol market, our starting hypothesis is that in uncompetitive markets the prices are higher and the standard deviation is lower. We use weekly retail petrol price data from the ten biggest Spanish cities, and apply Markov chains to fill the missing values for petrol 95 and diesel, and we also employ a variance filter. We conclude that this market demonstrates reduced price dispersion, regardless of brand or city.

A critical edition of Joseph Conrad's "Because of the dollars" (Within the Tides, 1915)

Cette thèse de doctorat, écrite en anglais, propose la première édition critique de « Because of the Dollars », une nouvelle de l'écrivain anglais Joseph Conrad publiée dans le volume Within the Tides, en février 1915. Outre le texte critique de la nouvelle - le seul à ce jour reconstruit d'après une minutieuse étude des relations entre toutes les versions existantes - la présente édition offre aussi un vaste apparat éditorial. Le texte de la présente édition est éclectique. Sa ponctuation est essentiellement basée sur un texte proche du manuscrit de l'auteur, et donc non corrompu par le processus de transmission. Mais ses mots sont tirés des dernières versions révisées par l'auteur, étant donné qu'au cours de la transmission, les mots, contrairement aux marques de ponctuation, n'ont pas été contaminés. Le résultat de cette méthode est un texte reflétant, tant pour les mots que pour la ponctuation, les choix de l'auteur. L'apparat éditorial sert à placer la nouvelle dans la vie de Conrad, tracer l'évolution du texte, et offrir au lecteur des informations historiques et culturelles qui permettront une meilleure lecture de l'oeuvre. Cet apparat est composé de quatre parties : une introduction, une étude sur les textes de la nouvelle, une collation historique de toutes les variantes, et des notes explicatives. L'introduction place l'oeuvre dans le contexte de la vie de l'écrivain, en donne la réception critique de 1915 à nos jours, et en éclaire le contexte historique (un changement de monnaie à Singapour en 1903-4). L'étude sur les textes trace le développement et la transmission du texte, depuis son inscription sur pages manuscrites jusqu'à sa publication dans les oeuvres complètes de Conrad. La collation historique inventorie toutes les variantes textuelles entre les différentes versions existantes. Enfin, les notes explicatives glosent les allusions littéraires, historiques, et culturelles du texte. « Because of the Dollars » et Within the Tides n'ayant attiré que très peu d'attention critique, les informations contenues dans cet apparat éditorial sont complètement inédites, et jettent une lumière originale sur une période peu étudiée de la vie de Conrad.

A multi-purpose grammar generating a multi-scale integrated analysis of Laos

In this study we propose an application of the MuSIASEM approach which is used to provide an integrated analysis of Laos across different scales. With the term “integrated analysis across scales” we mean the generation of a series of packages of quantitative indicators, characterizing the performance of the socioeconomic activities performed in Laos when considering: (i) different hierarchical levels of organization (farming systems described at the level of household, rural villages, regions of Laos, the whole country level); and (ii) different dimensions of analysis (economic dimension, social dimension, ecological dimension, technical dimension). What is relevant in this application is that the information carried out by these different packages of indicators is integrated in a system of accounting which establishes interlinkages across these indicators. This is a essential feature to study sustainability trade-offs and to build more robust scenarios of possible changes. The multi-scale integrated representation presented in this study is based on secondary data (gathered in a three year EU project – SEAtrans and integrated by other available statistical sources) and it is integrated in GIS, when dealing with the spatial representation of Laos. However, even if we use data referring to Laos, the goal of this study is not that of providing useful information about a practical policy issue of Laos, but rather, to illustrate the possibility of using a multipurpose grammar to produce an integrated set of sustainability indicators at three different levels: (i) local; (ii) meso; (iii) macro level. The technical issue addressed is the simultaneous adoption of two multi-level matrices – one referring to a characterization of human activity over a set of different categories, and another referring to a characterization of land uses over the same set of categories. In this way, it becomes possible to explain the characteristics of Laos (an integrated set of indicators defining the performance of the whole country) in relation to the characteristics of the rural Laos and urban Laos. The characteristics of rural Laos, can be explained using the characteristics of three regions defined within Laos (Northern Laos, Central Laos and Southern Laos), which in turn can be defined (using an analogous package of indicators), starting from the characteristics of three main typologies of farming systems found in the regions.

Applications of the MuSIASEM approach to study changes in the metabolic pattern of Catalonia

This document presents an integrated analysis of the performance of Catalonia based on an analysis of how the energy consumption (measured at the societal level for the Catalan Society) is used within both the productive sectors of the economy and the household, to generate added value, jobs, and to guarantee a given level of material standard of living to the population. The trends found in Catalonia are compared to the trends of other European Countries to contextualize the performance of Catalonia with respect to other societies that have followed different paths of economic development. The first part of the document consists of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach that has been used to provide this integrated analysis of Catalan Society across different scales (starting from an analysis of the specific sectors of the Catalan economy as an Autonomous Community and scaling up to an intra-regional (European Union 14) comparison) and across different dimensions of analyses of energy consumption coupled with added value generation. Within the scope of this study, we observe the various trajectories of changes in the metabolic pattern for Catalonia and the EU14 countries in the Paid Work Sectors composed of namely, the Agricultural Sector, the Productive Sector and the Services and Government Sector also in comparison with the changes in the household sector. The flow intensities of the exosomatic energy and the added value generated for each specific sector are defined per hour of human activity, thus characterized as exosomatic energy (MJ/hour) (or Exosomatic Metabolic Rate) and added value (€/hour) (Economic Labour Productivity) across multiple levels. Within the second part of the document, the possible usage of the MuSIASEM approach to land use analyses (using a multi-level matrix of categories of land use) has been conducted.

Investigation of Postmortem Gases: A Forensic Imaging and Analytical Chemistry Approach

Background: Distinguishing postmortem gas accumulations in the body due to natural decomposition and other phenomena such as gas embolism can prove a difficult task using purely Multi-Detector Computed Tomography (MDCT). The Radiological Alteration Index (RAI) was created with the intention to be able to identify bodies undergoing the putrefaction process based on the quantity of gas detected within the body. The flaw in this approach is the inability to absolutely determine putrefaction as the origin of gas volumes in cases of moderate alteration. The aim of the current study is to identify percentage compositions of O2, N2, CO2 and the presence of gases such as H2 and H2S within these sampling sites in order to resolve this complication. Materials and methods: All cases investigated in our University Center of Legal Medicine are undergoing a Post-Mortem Computed Tomography (PMCT)-scan before external examination or autopsy as a routine investigation. In the obtained images, areas of gas were characterized as 0, I, II or III based on the amount of gas present according to the RAI (1). The criteria for these characterizations were dependent of the site of gas, for example thoracic and abdominal cavities were graded as I (1 - 3cm gas), II (3 - 5cm gas) and III (>5cm gas). Cases showing gaseous sites with grade II or III were selected for this study. The sampling was performed under CT-guidance to target the regions to be punctured. Luer-lock PTFE syringes equipped with a three-way valve and needles were used to sample the gas directly (2). Gaseous samples were then analysed using gas chromatography coupled to a thermal conductivity detector (GC-TCD). The components present in the samples were expressed as a percentage of the overall gas present. Results: Up to now, we have investigated more than 40 cases using our standardized procedure for sampling and analysis of gas. O2, N2 and CO2 were present in most samples. The following distributions were found to correlate to gas origins of gas embolism/scuba diving accidents, trauma and putrefaction: ? Putrefaction → O2 = 1 - 5%; CO2 > 15%; N2 = 10 - 70%; H2 / H2S / CH4 variable presence ? Gas embolism/Scuba diving accidents → O2 and N2= varying percentages; CO2 > 20% ? Trauma → O2 = small percentage; CO2 < 15%; N2 > 65% H2 and H2S indicated levels of putrefaction along with methane which can also gauge environmental conditions or conditions of body storage/burial. Many cases showing large RAI values (advanced alteration) did reveal a radiological diagnosis which was in concordance with the interpretation of the gas composition. However, in certain cases (gas embolism, scuba divers) radiological interpretation was not possible and only chemical gas analysis was found to lead to the correct diagnosis, meaning that it provided complementary information to the radiological diagnosis. Conclusion: Investigation of postmortem gases is a useful tool to determine origin of gas generation which can aid the diagnosis of the cause of death. Levels of gas can provide information on stage of putrefaction and help to perform essential medico-legal diagnosis such as vital gas embolism.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria