909 resultados para Wind integration wind power forecasting


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The evolution of surface water waves in finite depth under wind forcing is reduced to an antidissipative Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers equation. We exhibit its solitary wave solution. Antidissipation accelerates and increases the amplitude of the solitary wave and leads to blow-up and breaking. Blow-up occurs in finite time for infinitely large asymptotic space so it is a nonlinear, dispersive, and antidissipative equivalent of the linear instability which occurs for infinite time. Due to antidissipation two given arbitrary and adjacent planes of constant phases of the solitary wave acquire different velocities and accelerations inducing breaking. Soliton breaking occurs in finite space in a time prior to the blow-up. We show that the theoretical growth in amplitude and the time of breaking are both testable in an existing experimental facility.

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Background: Similar to other hematophagous insects, male and female sand flies must feed on plants to obtain sugar and, subsequently, energy to complete their life cycles. A large number of compounds emitted by plants may act as volatile signals to these insects. Primary alcohols have been detected in some plants, but in small amounts. In a previous report, the attractiveness of saturated primary alcohols with 7 to 9 carbons was evaluated for Lutzomyia longipalpis, the vector of American visceral leishmaniasis, with positive results.Methods: In the present study, a wide range of primary alcohols, 3 to 10 carbons, were tested to investigate their attractiveness to another sand fly species, Nyssomyia neivai, a putative vector of American cutaneous leishmaniasis. The mixture of compounds that induced the best sand fly response was also evaluated.Results: Of the eight compounds evaluated, hexanol and octanol elicited the best attractive responses for sand fly females.Conclusion: Phytochemicals may be an interesting source of search for new sand fly attractants.

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Mozart’s wind music occupies a rather small space in the overall scope of his compositional output, numbering a total of ten works. Yet when viewed in the larger context of Mozart’s life, the wind music was written over the span of nine years, encompassing a large period from his youth up to his last decade in Vienna. Ranging from the simple divertimenti (K. 166 and 186) through the Tafelmusik (K. 213, 240, 252, 253 and 270) and finally culminating in the three Serenades (K. 361, 375 and 388), the wind music demonstrates Mozart’s maturation in wind writing, and also serves to illustrate the evolution in his use of sonata forms.

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In October 2008, the Brazilian Government announced plans to invest US$212 billion in the construction of nuclear power plants, totaling a joint capacity of 60,000 MW. Apart from this program, officials had already announced the completion of the construction of the nuclear plant Angra III; the construction of large-scale hydroelectric plans in the Amazon and the implantation of natural gas, biomass and coal thermoelectric plants in other regions throughout the country. Each of these projects has its proponents and its opponents, who bring forth concerns and create heated debates in the specialized forums. In this article, some of these concerns are explained, especially under the perspective of the comparative analysis of costs involved. Under such merit figures, the nuclear option, when compared to hydro plants, combined with conventional thermal and biomass-fueled plants, and even wind, to expand Brazilian power-generation capacity, does not appear as a priority. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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V393 Scorpii is a double periodic variable characterized by a relatively stable non-orbital photometric cycle of 253 d. Mennickent et al. argue for the presence of a massive optically thick disc around the more massive B-type component and describe the evolutionary stage of the system. In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of the main spectroscopic optical lines during the long non-orbital photometric cycle. We study the radial velocity of the donor determining its orbital elements and find a small but significant orbital eccentricity (e = 0.04). The donor spectral features are modelled and removed from the spectrum at every observing epoch using the light-curve model given by Mennickent et al. We find that the line emission is larger during eclipses and mostly comes from a bipolar wind. We also find that the long cycle is explained in terms of a modulation of the wind strength; the wind has a larger line and continuum emissivity at the high state. We report the discovery of highly variable chromospheric emission in the donor, as revealed by the Doppler maps of the emission lines Mg II 4481 and C I 6588. We discuss notable and some novel spectroscopic features like discrete absorption components, especially visible at blue depressed O I 7773 absorption wings during the second half-cycle, Balmer double emission with V/R curves showing 'Z-type' and 'S-type' excursions around secondary and main eclipses, respectively, and H beta emission wings extending up to +/- 2000 km s(-1). We also discuss possible causes for these phenomena and for their modulations with the long cycle.

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The periodic spectroscopic events in eta Carinae are now well established and occur near the periastron passage of two massive stars in a very eccentric orbit. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the variations of different spectral features, such as an eclipse by the wind-wind collision (WWC) boundary, a shell ejection from the primary star or accretion of its wind onto the secondary. All of them have problems explaining all the observed phenomena. To better understand the nature of the cyclic events, we performed a dense monitoring of eta Carinae with five Southern telescopes during the 2009 low-excitation event, resulting in a set of data of unprecedented quality and sampling. The intrinsic luminosity of the He II lambda 4686 emission line (L similar to 310 L-circle dot) just before periastron reveals the presence of a very luminous transient source of extreme UV radiation emitted in the WWC region. Clumps in the primary's wind probably explain the flare-like behavior of both the X-ray and He II lambda 4686 light curves. After a short-lived minimum, He II lambda 4686 emission rises again to a new maximum, when X-rays are still absent or very weak. We interpret this as a collapse of the WWC onto the "surface" of the secondary star, switching off the hard X-ray source and diminishing the WWC shock cone. The recovery from this state is controlled by the momentum balance between the secondary's wind and the clumps in the primary's wind.

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Recent reports have shown an increase in potentially harmful phytoplankton in Santos bay (Southeastern Brazilian Coast), located in a highly urbanised estuarine complex. Prediction of blooms is, thus, essential but the phytoplankton community structure in very dynamic regions is difficult to determine. In the present work, we discriminate bloom forming microphytoplankton dominance and their relationship to physical and meteorological variables to look for patterns observed in different tides and seasons. Comparing 8 distinct situations, we found five scenarios of dominance that could be related to winds, tides and rainfall: i) Surfers, diatoms occurring during high surf zone energies; ii) Sinkers, represented by larger celled diatoms during spring tide, after periods of high precipitation rates; iii) Opportunistic mixers, composed of chain forming diatoms with small or elongate cells occurring during neap tides; iv) Local mixers, microplanktonic diatoms and dinoflagellates which occurred throughout the 298 sampling stations; and v) Mixotrophic dinoflagellates, after intense estuarine discharges. Results suggest alterations in the temporal patterns for some bloom-forming species, while others appeared in abundances above safe limits for public health. This approach can also illustrate possible impacts of changes in freshwater discharge in highly urbanised estuaries.

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Máster en Oceanografía

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Máster en Oceanografía

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ÈN]A trans-oceanic section at 24.5°N in the North Atlantic has been sampled at a decadal frequency. This work demonstrates that the wind-driven component of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) may be monitored using autonomous profiling floats deployed in the eastern North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre. More than 500 CTD vertical profiles from the surface to 2000 m depth, spanning one year (from April 2002 to March 2003), are used to compute the geostrophic transport stream function at 24.5°N. The baroclinic transport obtained from the autonomous profiling floats is not statistically different than that from three hydrographic cruises carried out in 1957, 1981 and 1992. A good agreement is found between the geostrophic transport stream function and the transport derived from the wind field through the Sverdrup relation.

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[EN]We have studied the short-term variability -at temporal scale of days and spatial scale of 5 km- of the hydrographic field, organic and inorganic nutrients, chlorophyll and picoplanktonic abundances, across a 40 Km section crossing a frontal system south of Gran Canaria, where anticyclonic eddies in early-stages of formation and convergent fronts have been widely reported in the past. Each cruise consisted in a 3-4 daily-repeated section, and was carried out at the same period of the year (May) during two consecutive years (2011 and 2012). The main goal of our study was to analyze the picoplankton response to short-term variability at scales not considered in regular oceanographic samplings, even in regions with complex hydrographic fields.

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A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

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[EN]In previous works, many authors have widely used mass consistent models for wind field simulation by the finite element method. On one hand, we have developed a 3-D mass consistent model by using tetrahedral meshes which are simultaneously adapted to complex orography and to terrain roughness length. In addition, we have included a local refinement strategy around several measurement or control points, significant contours, as for example shorelines, or numerical solution singularities. On the other hand, we have developed a 2.5-D model for simulating the wind velocity in a 3-D domain in terms of the terrain elevation, the surface temperature and the meteorological wind, which is consider as an averaged wind on vertical boundaries...