History-aware, real-time risk detection in business processes (Extended Version)

This paper proposes a novel approach for identifying risks in executable business processes and detecting them at run time. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, and is realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of faults to occur. Both historical and current execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a process automation suite to prompt the results to the user who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented in the YAWL system and its performance has been evaluated in practice.

Maternal exposure to ambient temperature and the risk of preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia

Almost 10% of all births are preterm and 2.2% are stillbirths globally. Recent research has suggested that environmental factors may be a contributory cause to these adverse birth outcomes. The authors examined the relationship between ambient temperature and preterm birth and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia between 2005 and 2009 (n = 101,870). They used a Cox proportional hazard model with live birth and stillbirth as competing risks. They also examined if there were periods of the pregnancy where exposure to high temperatures had a greater effect. Exposure to higher ambient temperatures during pregnancy increased the risk of stillbirth. The hazard ratio for stillbirth was 0.3 at 12 °C relative to the reference temperature at 21 °C. The temperature effect was greatest for fetuses of less than 36 weeks of gestation. There was an association between higher temperature and shorter gestation, as the hazard ratio for live birth was 0.96 at 15 °C and 1.02 at 25 °C. This effect was greatest at later gestational ages. The results provide strong evidence of an association between increased temperature and increased risk of stillbirth and shorter gestations.

Evaluation of financial incentives as a quality improvement strategy in the public hospital context : clinician attitudes, design variables, and economic costs

In 2008, a three-year pilot ‘pay for performance’ (P4P) program, known as ‘Clinical Practice Improvement Payment’ (CPIP) was introduced into Queensland Health (QHealth). QHealth is a large public health sector provider of acute, community, and public health services in Queensland, Australia. The organisation has recently embarked on a significant reform agenda including a review of existing funding arrangements (Duckett et al., 2008). Partly in response to this reform agenda, a casemix funding model has been implemented to reconnect health care funding with outcomes. CPIP was conceptualised as a performance-based scheme that rewarded quality with financial incentives. This is the first time such a scheme has been implemented into the public health sector in Australia with a focus on rewarding quality, and it is unique in that it has a large state-wide focus and includes 15 Districts. CPIP initially targeted five acute and community clinical areas including Mental Health, Discharge Medication, Emergency Department, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Stroke. The CPIP scheme was designed around key concepts including the identification of clinical indicators that met the set criteria of: high disease burden, a well defined single diagnostic group or intervention, significant variations in clinical outcomes and/or practices, a good evidence, and clinician control and support (Ward, Daniels, Walker & Duckett, 2007). This evaluative research targeted Phase One of implementation of the CPIP scheme from January 2008 to March 2009. A formative evaluation utilising a mixed methodology and complementarity analysis was undertaken. The research involved three research questions and aimed to determine the knowledge, understanding, and attitudes of clinicians; identify improvements to the design, administration, and monitoring of CPIP; and determine the financial and economic costs of the scheme. Three key studies were undertaken to ascertain responses to the key research questions. Firstly, a survey of clinicians was undertaken to examine levels of knowledge and understanding and their attitudes to the scheme. Secondly, the study sought to apply Statistical Process Control (SPC) to the process indicators to assess if this enhanced the scheme and a third study examined a simple economic cost analysis. The CPIP Survey of clinicians elicited 192 clinician respondents. Over 70% of these respondents were supportive of the continuation of the CPIP scheme. This finding was also supported by the results of a quantitative altitude survey that identified positive attitudes in 6 of the 7 domains-including impact, awareness and understanding and clinical relevance, all being scored positive across the combined respondent group. SPC as a trending tool may play an important role in the early identification of indicator weakness for the CPIP scheme. This evaluative research study supports a previously identified need in the literature for a phased introduction of Pay for Performance (P4P) type programs. It further highlights the value of undertaking a formal risk assessment of clinician, management, and systemic levels of literacy and competency with measurement and monitoring of quality prior to a phased implementation. This phasing can then be guided by a P4P Design Variable Matrix which provides a selection of program design options such as indicator target and payment mechanisms. It became evident that a clear process is required to standardise how clinical indicators evolve over time and direct movement towards more rigorous ‘pay for performance’ targets and the development of an optimal funding model. Use of this matrix will enable the scheme to mature and build the literacy and competency of clinicians and the organisation as implementation progresses. Furthermore, the research identified that CPIP created a spotlight on clinical indicators and incentive payments of over five million from a potential ten million was secured across the five clinical areas in the first 15 months of the scheme. This indicates that quality was rewarded in the new QHealth funding model, and despite issues being identified with the payment mechanism, funding was distributed. The economic model used identified a relative low cost of reporting (under $8,000) as opposed to funds secured of over $300,000 for mental health as an example. Movement to a full cost effectiveness study of CPIP is supported. Overall the introduction of the CPIP scheme into QHealth has been a positive and effective strategy for engaging clinicians in quality and has been the catalyst for the identification and monitoring of valuable clinical process indicators. This research has highlighted that clinicians are supportive of the scheme in general; however, there are some significant risks that include the functioning of the CPIP payment mechanism. Given clinician support for the use of a pay–for-performance methodology in QHealth, the CPIP scheme has the potential to be a powerful addition to a multi-faceted suite of quality improvement initiatives within QHealth.

Fleet safety : risk reduction for work related vehicle use

Research has demonstrated that driving a vehicle for work is potentially one of the most dangerous workplace activities. Although organisations are required to meet legislative obligations under workplace health and safety in relation to work related vehicle use, organisations are often reluctant to acknowledge and address the risks associated with the vehicle as a workplace. Recent research undertaken investigating the challenges associated with driver and organisational aspects of fleet safety are discussed. This paper provides a risk management framework to assist organisations to meet legislative requirements and reduce the risk associated with vehicle use in the workplace. In addition the paper argues that organisations need to develop and maintain a positive fleet safety culture to proactively mitigate risk in an effort to reduce the frequency and severity of vehicle related incidents within the workplace.

Open content licensing of public sector information and the risk of tortious liability for Australian Governments

There has been an increasing interest by governments worldwide in the potential benefits of open access to public sector information (PSI). However, an important question remains: can a government incur tortious liability for incorrect information released online under an open content licence? This paper argues that the release of PSI online for free under an open content licence, specifically a Creative Commons licence, is within the bounds of an acceptable level of risk to government, especially where users are informed of the limitations of the data and appropriate information management policies and principles are in place to ensure accountability for data quality and accuracy.

Construction safety : development of an assessment tool to reduce risk on building sites

Australian construction and building workers are exposed to serious workplace risks - including injury, illness and death - and although there have been improvements in occupational health and safety (OHS) performance over the past 20 years, the injury and fatality rate in the Australian construction industry remains a matter of concern. The concept of safety culture is rapidly being adopted in the industry, including recognising the critical role that organisational leaders play in overall safety performance. This paper reviews recent research in construction safety leadership and provides some examples and applications relevant to risk reduction in the workforce. By focusing on developing safety competency in those that fulfil safety critical roles, and clearly articulating the relevant safety management tasks, leaders can positively influence the organisation’s safety culture. Finally, some promising research on Safety Effectiveness Indicators (SEIs) may be an industry-friendly solution to reducing workplace risks across the industry, by providing a credible, accurate, and timely measure of safety performance.

A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: The risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking

We review the literature on the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer, and explore a Bayesian approach to assess evidence of interaction. Previous approaches have focussed on separate tests for an additive or multiplicative relation. We extend these approaches by exploring the strength of evidence for either relation using approaches which allow the data to choose between both models. We then compare the different approaches.

Value-adding to cellulosic ethanol: Lignin polymers

Lignocellulosic waste materials are the most promising feedstock for generation of a renewable, carbon-neutral substitute for existing liquid fuels. The development of value-added products from lignin will greatly improve the economics of producing liquid fuels from biomass. This review gives an outline of lignin chemistry, describes the current processes of lignocellulosic biomass fractionation and the lignin products obtained through these processes, then outlines current and potential value-added applications of these products, in particular as components of polymer composites. Research highlights The use of lignocellulosic biomass to produce platform chemicals and industrial products enhances the sustainability of natural resources and improves environmental quality by reducing greenhouse and toxic emissions. In addition, the development of lignin based products improves the economics producing liquid transportation fuel from lignocellulosic feedstock. Value adding can be achieved by converting lignin to functionally equivalent products that rely in its intrinsic properties. This review outlines lignin chemistry and some potential high value products that can be made from lignin. Keywords: Lignocellulose materials; Lignin chemistry; Application

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Diffusion of corporate governance practices : the Dutch response to pressures for shareholder value

As part of a larger literature focused on identifying and relating the antecedents and consequences of diffusing organizational practices/ideas, recent research has debated the international adoption of a shareholder-value-orientation (SVO). The debate has financial economists characterizing the adoption of an SVO as performance-enhancing and thus inevitable, with behavioral scientists disputing both claims, invoking institutional differences. This study seeks to provide some resolution to the debate (and advance current understanding on the diffusion of practices/ideas) by developing a socio-political perspective that links the antecedents and consequences of an SVO. In particular, we introduce the notion of misaligned elites and misfitted practices in our analysis of how and why differences in the technical and cultural preferences of major owners will influence a firm’s adoption and (un)successful implementation of an SVO among the largest 100 corporations in the Netherlands from 1992-2006. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our perspective and our findings for future research on corporate governance and the diffusion of organizational practices/ideas.

Maximising the manufacturer performance value through lean initiatives using cost based model

Numerous tools and techniques have been developed to eliminate or reduce waste and carry out lean concepts in the manufacturing environment. However, appropriate lean tools need to be selected and implemented in order to fulfil the manufacturer needs within their budgetary constraints. As a result, it is important to identify manufacturer needs and implement only those tools, which contribute maximum benefit to their needs. In this research a mathematical model is proposed for maximising the perceived value of manufacturer needs and developed a step-by-step methodology to select best performance metrics along with appropriate lean strategies within the budgetary constraints. With the help of a case study, the proposed model and method have been demonstrated.

High-density lipoprotein and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism

BACKGROUND - High-density lipoprotein (HDL) protects against arterial atherothrombosis, but it is unknown whether it protects against recurrent venous thromboembolism. METHODS AND RESULTS - We studied 772 patients after a first spontaneous venous thromboembolism (average follow-up 48 months) and recorded the end point of symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism, which developed in 100 of the 772 patients. The relationship between plasma lipoprotein parameters and recurrence was evaluated. Plasma apolipoproteins AI and B were measured by immunoassays for all subjects. Compared with those without recurrence, patients with recurrence had lower mean (±SD) levels of apolipoprotein AI (1.12±0.22 versus 1.23±0.27 mg/mL, P<0.001) but similar apolipoprotein B levels. The relative risk of recurrence was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.94) for each increase of 0.1 mg/mL in plasma apolipoprotein AI. Compared with patients with apolipoprotein AI levels in the lowest tertile (<1.07 mg/mL), the relative risk of recurrence was 0.46 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.77) for the highest-tertile patients (apolipoprotein AI >1.30 mg/mL) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.50 to 1.22) for midtertile patients (apolipoprotein AI of 1.07 to 1.30 mg/mL). Using nuclear magnetic resonance, we determined the levels of 10 major lipoprotein subclasses and HDL cholesterol for 71 patients with recurrence and 142 matched patients without recurrence. We found a strong trend for association between recurrence and low levels of HDL particles and HDL cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS - Patients with high levels of apolipoprotein AI and HDL have a decreased risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism. © 2007 American Heart Association, Inc.