Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

Corrigendum Vol. 30, Issue 2, 259, Article first published online: 15 MAR 2009 to correct the order of authors names: Bu R., K. Hadri, and B. McCabe.

Higher-order effects and ultrashort solitons in left-handed metamaterials

Starting from Maxwell's equations, we use the reductive perturbation method to derive a second-order and a third-order nonlinear Schrodinger equation, describing ultrashort solitons in nonlinear left-handed metamaterials. We find necessary conditions and derive exact bright and dark soliton solutions of these equations for the electric and magnetic field envelopes.

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Probing magnetic order in ultracold lattice gases

A forthcoming challenge in ultracold lattice gases is the simulation of quantum magnetism. That involves both the preparation of the lattice atomic gas in the desired spin state and the probing of the state. Here we demonstrate how a probing scheme based on atom-light interfaces gives access to the order parameters of nontrivial quantum magnetic phases, allowing us to characterize univocally strongly correlated magnetic systems produced in ultracold gases. This method, which is also nondemolishing, yields spatially resolved spin correlations and can be applied to bosons or fermions. As a proof of principle, we apply this method to detect the complete phase diagram displayed by a chain of (rotationally invariant) spin-1 bosons.

Second-order NMR spectra at high field of common organic functional groups

The proton NMR spectra of aryl n-propyl sulfides gave rise to what may appear to be first-order proton NMR spectra. Upon oxidation to the corresponding sulfone, the spectra changed appearance dramatically and were clearly second-order. A detailed analysis of these second-order spectra, in the sulfone series, provided vicinal coupling constants which indicated that these compounds had a moderate preference for the anti-conformer, reflecting the much greater size of the sulfone over the sulfide. It also emerged, from this study, that the criterion for observing large second-order effects in the proton NMR spectra of 1,2-disubstituted ethanes was that the difference in vicinal coupling constants must be large and the difference in geminal coupling constants must be small. n-Propyl triphenylphosphonium bromide and 2-trimethylsilylethanesulfonyl chloride, and derivatives thereof, also exhibited second-order spectra, again due to the bulky substituents. Since these spectra are second-order due to magnetic nonequivalence of the nuclei in question, not chemical shifts, the proton spectra are perpetually second-order and can never be rendered first-order by using higher field NMR spectrometers.

Children’s Reasoning About the Temporal Order of Past and Future Events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.

Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set

We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in-sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis-à-vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.

Investigation on localisation accuracy for first and higher order ambisonics reproduced sound sources

Ambisonics and higher order ambisonics (HOA) technologies aim at reproducing sound field either synthesised or previously recorded with dedicated microphones. Based on a spherical harmonic decomposition, the sound field is more precisely described when higher-order components are used. The presented study evaluated the perceptual and objective localisation accuracy of the sound field encoded with four microphones of order one to four and decoded over a ring of loudspeakers. A perceptual test showed an improvement of the localisation with higher order ambisonic microphones. Reproduced localisation indices were estimated for the four microphones and the respective synthetic systems of order one to four. The perceptual and objective analysis revealed the same conclusions. The localisation accuracy depends on the ambisonic order as well as the source incidence. Furthermore, impairments linked to the microphones were highlighted.