A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

Theraplay : staying in life's performance zone with play - Homo ludens: Man the player - Homo Cogito: Man the thinker

The paper introduces an update on a therapy originally developed by Jernberg (1979) for the American Head Start Programme for use with children and parents. Theraplay was based on John Bowlby's (1969) attachment theory and was started by Jernberg in Chicago. The present use of theraplay is for young adults to deal with negative mood and mood disorders resulting from stress, anxiety or depression. It is for the sad, lonely, sluggish, miserable or melancholic amongst us as well as the worried well.

International transfer pricing : the Australian approach and lessons for Canada

In response to developments in international trade and an increased focus on international transfer-pricing issues, Canada’s minister of finance announced in the 1997 budget that the Department of Finance would undertake a review of the transfer-pricing provisions in the Income Tax Act. On September 11, 1997, the Department of Finance released draft transfer-pricing legislation and Revenue Canada released revised draft Information Circular 87-2R. The legislation was subsequently amended and included in Bill C-28, which received first reading on December 10, 1997. The new rules are intended to update Canada’s international transfer-pricing practices. In particular, they attempt to harmonize the standards in the Income Tax Act with the arm’s-length principle established in the OECD’s transfer pricing guidelines. The new rules also set out contemporaneous documentation requirements in respect of cross-border related-party transactions, facilitate administration of the law by Revenue Canada, and provide for a penalty where transfer prices do not comply with the arm’s-length principle. The Australian tax authorities have similarly reviewed and updated their transfer-pricing practices. Since 1992, the Australian commissioner of taxation has issued three rulings and seven draft rulings directly relating to international transfer pricing. These rulings outline the selection and application of transfer pricing methodologies, documentation requirements, and penalties for non-compliance. The Australian Taxation Office supports the use of advance pricing agreements (APAs) and has expanded its audit strategy by conducting transfer-pricing risk assessment reviews. This article presents a detailed review of Australia’s transfer-pricing policy and practices, which address essentially the same concerns as those at which the new Canadian rules are directed. This review provides a framework for comparison of the approaches adopted in the two jurisdictions. The author concludes that although these approaches differ in some respects, ultimately they produce a similar result. Both regimes set a clear standard to be met by multinational enterprises in establishing transfer prices. Both provide for audits and penalties in the event of noncompliance. And both offer the alternative of an APA as a means of avoiding transfer-pricing disputes with Australian and Canadian tax authorities.

Updating and verification for multi-scale finite element model of structure behavior

The method on concurrent multi-scale model of structural behavior (CMSM-of-SB) for the purpose of structural health monitoring including model updating and validating has been studied. The detailed process of model updating and validating is discussed in terms of reduced scale specimen of the steel box girder in longitudinal stiffening truss of a long span bridge. Firstly, some influence factors affecting the accuracy of the CMSM-of-SB including the boundary restraint regidity, the geometry and material parameters on the toe of the weld and its neighbor are analyzed using sensitivity method. Then, sensitivity-based model updating technology is adopted to update the developed CMSM-of-SB and model verification is carried out through calculating and comparing stresses on different locations under various loading from dynamic characteristic and static response. It can be concluded that the CMSM-of-SB based on the substructure method is valid.

State convergence and keyspace reduction of the mixer stream cipher

This paper presents an analysis of the stream cipher Mixer, a bit-based cipher with structural components similar to the well-known Grain cipher and the LILI family of keystream generators. Mixer uses a 128-bit key and 64-bit IV to initialise a 217-bit internal state. The analysis is focused on the initialisation function of Mixer and shows that there exist multiple key-IV pairs which, after initialisation, produce the same initial state, and consequently will generate the same keystream. Furthermore, if the number of iterations of the state update function performed during initialisation is increased, then the number of distinct initial states that can be obtained decreases. It is also shown that there exist some distinct initial states which produce the same keystream, resulting in a further reduction of the effective key space

An estimate of road accident costs in Singapore

An earlier study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) showed that the annual cost of road traffic accidents in 2001 was S$699.36 million which was 0.5% of the annual GDP. This paper attempts to update of the cost estimates of road traffic accidents. More precise methods of computing the human cost, lost output and property damage are adopted which grew in an annual cost of S$610.3 million or 0.338% of the annual GDP in 2003. A more conservative estimate of S$878,000 for fatal accident is also obtained, compared to the earlier figure of S$1.4 million. This study has shown that it is necessary to update the annual traffic accident costs regularly, as the figures vary with the number of accidents which change with time.

Text mining in negative relevance feedback

It is a big challenge to clearly identify the boundary between positive and negative streams. Several attempts have used negative feedback to solve this challenge; however, there are two issues for using negative relevance feedback to improve the effectiveness of information filtering. The first one is how to select constructive negative samples in order to reduce the space of negative documents. The second issue is how to decide noisy extracted features that should be updated based on the selected negative samples. This paper proposes a pattern mining based approach to select some offenders from the negative documents, where an offender can be used to reduce the side effects of noisy features. It also classifies extracted features (i.e., terms) into three categories: positive specific terms, general terms, and negative specific terms. In this way, multiple revising strategies can be used to update extracted features. An iterative learning algorithm is also proposed to implement this approach on RCV1, and substantial experiments show that the proposed approach achieves encouraging performance.

Capping computation time and storage requirements for appearance-based localization with CAT-SLAM

Appearance-based localization is increasingly used for loop closure detection in metric SLAM systems. Since it relies only upon the appearance-based similarity between images from two locations, it can perform loop closure regardless of accumulated metric error. However, the computation time and memory requirements of current appearance-based methods scale linearly not only with the size of the environment but also with the operation time of the platform. These properties impose severe restrictions on longterm autonomy for mobile robots, as loop closure performance will inevitably degrade with increased operation time. We present a set of improvements to the appearance-based SLAM algorithm CAT-SLAM to constrain computation scaling and memory usage with minimal degradation in performance over time. The appearance-based comparison stage is accelerated by exploiting properties of the particle observation update, and nodes in the continuous trajectory map are removed according to minimal information loss criteria. We demonstrate constant time and space loop closure detection in a large urban environment with recall performance exceeding FAB-MAP by a factor of 3 at 100% precision, and investigate the minimum computational and memory requirements for maintaining mapping performance.

Surface plasmon hybridization and exciton coupling

We derive a semianalytical model to describe the interaction of a single photon emitter and a collection of arbitrarily shaped metal nanoparticles. The theory treats the metal nanoparticles classically within the electrostatic eigenmode method, wherein the surface plasmon resonances of collections of nanoparticles are represented by the hybridization of the plasmon modes of the noninteracting particles. The single photon emitter is represented by a quantum mechanical two-level system that exhibits line broadening due to a finite spontaneous decay rate. Plasmon-emitter coupling is described by solving the resulting Bloch equations. We illustrate the theory by studying model systems consisting of a single emitter coupled to one, two, and three nanoparticles, and we also compare the predictions of our model to published experimental data. ©2012 American Physical Society.

Influence tactics and leader effectiveness : how effective, contemporary leaders influence subordinates

Defining the difference between successful and mediocre leaders is a quest that has attracted many renowned scholars, drawing vast amounts of research effort. Yet while there are excellent theoretical explanations of what leaders should do: exhibit transformational behaviours, demonstrate authenticity, build productive relationships with followers and so on; there is still a scarcity of empirically-based research advising practicing leaders how to do these things. This study seeks to provide guidance about the fine-grained processes that effective leaders use on a daily basis to undertake the core process of all leadership activity; influencing followers. Using a grounded research approach, this study employs qualitative methods to capture the detail of effective leader behaviour and the micro-level influence processes that leaders use to create effective follower outcomes. Conducted in the health services industry with medical and allied health leaders, the study sought to answer the question: What influence methods might effective, contemporary leaders be using? The study builds on existing influence research, seeking to extend and update the typology of 11 influence tactics originally developed by Yukl and others, and which has been static since the late 1990s. Eight new influence tactics were identified, offering practicing leaders a powerful suite of potential strategies and representing a significant contribution to the field. Further research is recommended to confirm the identified influence constructs and test the generalisability of these findings to broader leader populations in health organisations and other knowledge-based organisations.

An interpretation of current progress towards an industry model for Queensland's surveying and mapping industry

A strongly progressive surveying and mapping industry depends on a shared understanding of the industry as it exists, some shared vision or imagination of what the industry might become, and some shared action plan capable of bringing about a realisation of that vision. The emphasis on sharing implies a need for consensus reached through widespread discussion and mutual understanding. Unless this occurs, concerted action is unlikely. A more likely outcome is that industry representatives will negate each other's efforts in their separate bids for progress. The process of bringing about consensual viewpoints is essentially one of establishing an industry identity. Establishing the industry's identity and purpose is a prerequisite for rational development of the industry's education and training, its promotion and marketing, and operational research that can deal .with industry potential and efficiency. This paper interprets evolutionary developments occurring within Queensland's surveying and mapping industry within a framework that sets out logical requirements for a viable industry.

Women, alcohol and pregnancy

This paper examines a history of knowledge from Greek times regarding the possible teratogenic effect of alcohol. Literature on the topic up to the early 1980s is included and some recommendations are suggested.

Multinational contracting into Australia: Developing Dunning's theory and case study design

In response to the need to leverage private finance and the lack of competition in some parts of the Australian public sector infrastructure market, the Australian Federal government has demonstrated its desire to attract new sources of in-bound foreign direct investment (FDI) by multinational contractors. This study aims to update progress towards an investigation into the determinants of multinational contractors’ willingness to bid for Australian public sector major road and bridges. This research deploys Dunning’s eclectic theory for the first time in terms of in-bound FDI by multinational contractors into Australia. Elsewhere, the authors have developed Dunning’s principal hypothesis to suit the context of this research and to address a weakness arising in this hypothesis that is based on a nominal (yes or no) approach to the ownership, location and internalisation factors in Dunning's eclectic framework and which fails to speak to the relative explanatory power of these factors. The authors have completed a first stage test of this development of Dunning's hypothesis based on publically available secondary data, in which it was concluded tentatively that the location factor appears to have the greatest explanatory power. This paper aims to present, for the first time, a further and novel development of the operation of Dunning's eclectic paradigm within the context of multinational contracting, as well as a preview of the design and planned analysis of the next empirical stage in this research concerning case studies. Finally, and beyond the theoretical contributions expected, other expected contributions are mentioned concerning research method and practical implications.

State cycles, initialization and the Trivium stream cipher

Trivium is a keystream generator for a binary additive synchronous stream cipher. It was selected in the final portfolio for the Profile 2 category of the eSTREAM project. The keystream generator is constructed using bit- based shift registers. In this paper we present an alternate representation of Trivium using word-based shift registers, with a word size of three bits. This representation is useful for determining cycles of internal state values. Under this representation it is clear that the state space can be partitioned into subspaces and that over some of these subspaces the state update function is effectively linear. The role of the initialization process is critical in ensuring the states used for generating keystream are updated nonlinearly at some point, as the state update function alone does not provide this.

An integrated educational model for continuing nurse education

Aim This paper reports on the development and evaluation of an integrated clinical learning model to inform ongoing education for surgical nurses. The research aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of implementing a Respiratory Skills Update (ReSKU) education program, in the context of organisational utility, on improving surgical nurses' practice in the area of respiratory assessment. Background Continuous development and integration of technological innovations and research in the healthcare environment mandate the need for continuing education for nurses. Despite an increased worldwide emphasis on this, there is scant empirical evidence of program effectiveness. Methods A quasi experimental pre test, post test non–equivalent control group design evaluated the impact of the ReSKU program on surgical nurses' clinical practice. The 2008 study was conducted in a 400 bed regional referral public hospital and was consistent with contemporary educational approaches using multi-modal, interactive teaching strategies. Findings The study demonstrated statistically significant differences between groups regarding reported use of respiratory skills, three months after ReSKU program attendance. Between group data analysis indicated that the intervention group's reported beliefs and attitudes pertaining to subscale descriptors showed statistically significant differences in three of the six subscales. Conclusion The construct of critical thinking in the clinical context, combined with clinical reasoning and purposeful reflection, was a powerful educational strategy to enhance competency and capability in clinicians.