928 resultados para Uncertainty quantification


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The development of a new methodology for the construction of very efficient flow cells for mercury detection by potentiometric stripping analysis, employing the thin gold layer of recordable CDs as working electrode is reported. This new source of electrodes (CDtrodes) show very attractive performance, similar to that obtained with commercial gold electrodes, with superior versatility. The low cost of this new source of gold electrodes allows a frequent replacement of the electrode, avoiding cumbersome clean-up treatments. Various experimental parameters have been optimized to yield low detection limits (0.25 ng/mL of mercury for 5 min deposition at 0.3 V) and good precision (standard deviation of 1.9% was obtained for 15 repetitive measurements using 10 ng/mL of mercury). Standard curves were found to be linear over the range of 0.5-100 μg L-1 of mercury. The flow cells developed were used for the quantification of mercury in oceanic and tap water. © Springer-Verlag 2000.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A stability-indication high performance liquid chromatographic method has been developed for the determination of norfloxacin in tablet dosage forms. Optimum separation was achieved in less than 7 minutes using Eclipse Plus Zorbax C18 Agilent, 150 mm×4.6 mm i.d., 5 μm particle size column. The analyte was resolved by using a mobile phase 5% acetic acid aqueous solution and methanol (80:20, v/v) at a flow rate 1.0 ml/min on an isocratic high performance liquid chromatographic system at a wavelength of 277 nm. Linearity, system suitability, precision, sensitivity, selectivity, specific, and robustness were established by International Conference Harmonization guidelines. For stress studies the drug was subjected to photolysis, oxidation, acid, alkaline and neutral conditions. The analytical conditions and the solvent developed provided good resolution within a short analysis time and economic advantages. The proposed method not required sophisticated and expensive instrumentation.