Financial risks and opportunities in the time of climate change. Bruegel Policy Brief ISSUE 2016/02 APRIL 2016

Real economic imbalances can lead to financial crisis. The current unsustainable use of our environment is such an imbalance. Financial shocks can be triggered by either intensified environmental policies, cleantech breakthroughs (both resulting in the stranding of unsustainable assets), or the economic costs of crossing ecological boundaries (eg floods and droughts due to climate change). Financial supervisors and risk managers have so far paid little attention to this ecological dimension, allowing systemic financial imbalances resulting from ecological pressures to build up. Inattention also leads to missed economic and financial opportunities from the sustainability transition.

Flexibility versus Stability: A difficult trade-off in the eurozone. CEPS Working Document No. 422, 29 April 2016

Optimal currency area (OCA) theory has been influential in pushing eurozone countries towards structural reforms to make product and labour markets more flexible. The underlying assumption of the OCA prescription for structural reform is that asymmetric shocks are permanent. However, when shocks are temporary it does not follow that more flexibility is the answer. When shocks are the result of business-cycle movements, the way to deal with them is by stabilisation efforts. This paper provides empirical evidence that suggests that the biggest shocks in the eurozone were the result of business-cycle movements. These were relatively well synchronised, except for their amplitude. We argue that efforts to stabilise business cycles should be strengthened relative to the efforts that have been made to impose structural reforms, with consideration given to the implications for the governance of the eurozone.

Role of alternative interventional procedures when endo- and epicardial catheter ablation attempts for ventricular arrhythmias fail.

BACKGROUND Ventricular tachycardia (VT) refractory to antiarrhythmic drugs and standard percutaneous catheter ablation techniques portends a poor prognosis. We characterized the reasons for ablation failure and describe alternative interventional procedures in this high-risk group. METHODS AND RESULTS Sixty-seven patients with VT refractory to 4±2 antiarrhythmic drugs and 2±1 previous endocardial/epicardial catheter ablation attempts underwent transcoronary ethanol ablation, surgical epicardial window (Epi-window), or surgical cryoablation (OR-Cryo; age, 62±11 years; VT storm in 52%). Failure of endo/epicardial ablation attempts was because of VT of intramural origin (35 patients), nonendocardial origin with prohibitive epicardial access because of pericardial adhesions (16), and anatomic barriers to ablation (8). In 8 patients, VT was of nonendocardial origin with a coexisting condition also requiring cardiac surgery. Transcoronary ethanol ablation alone was attempted in 37 patients, OR-Cryo alone in 21 patients, and a combination of transcoronary ethanol ablation and OR-Cryo (5 patients), or transcoronary ethanol ablation and Epi-window (4 patients), in the remainder. Overall, alternative interventional procedures abolished ≥1 inducible VT and terminated storm in 69% and 74% of patients, respectively, although 25% of patients had at least 1 complication. By 6 months post procedures, there was a significant reduction in defibrillator shocks (from a median of 8 per month to 1; P<0.001) and antiarrhythmic drug requirement although 55% of patients had at least 1 VT recurrence, and mortality was 17%. CONCLUSIONS A collaborative strategy of alternative interventional procedures offers the possibility of achieving arrhythmia control in high-risk patients with VT that is otherwise uncontrollable with antiarrhythmic drugs and standard percutaneous catheter ablation techniques.

Ablation of ischemic ventricular tachycardia: evidence, techniques, results, and future directions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW This article summarizes current understanding of the arrhythmia substrate and effect of catheter ablation for infarct-related ventricular tachycardia, focusing on recent findings. RECENT FINDINGS Clinical studies support the use of catheter ablation earlier in the course of ischemic disease with moderate success in reducing arrhythmia recurrence and shocks from implantable defibrillators, although mortality remains unchanged. Ablation can be lifesaving for patients presenting with electrical storm. Advanced mapping systems with image integration facilitate identification of potential substrate, and several different approaches to manage hemodynamically unstable ventricular tachycardia have emerged. Novel ablation techniques that allow deeper lesion formation are in development. SUMMARY Catheter ablation is an important therapeutic option for preventing or reducing episodes of ventricular tachycardia in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy. Present technologies allow successful ablation in the majority of patients, even when the arrhythmia is hemodynamically unstable. Failure of the procedure is often because of anatomic challenges that will hopefully be addressed with technological progress.

Efeitos dos choques de políticas monetária e fiscal sobre as expectativas de inflação no Brasil

In the past few years, uncertainty regarding fiscal situation in Brazil has raised concerns about Central Bank’s ability to anchor inflation expectations. This work examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in inflation expectations in Brazil from 2003 to 2015, using VAR models. The results show that unexpected increases in the overnight interest rate lower 12 and 24-months-ahead inflation expectations. However when we reestimate the model using only the late sample (2010-2015), the effects of monetary shocks in inflation expectations are not statistically significant. On the other hand, negative shocks in primary balance expectations have a positive and stronger effect on inflation expectations for recent years. These results suggest that the deanchoring of inflation expectations in Brazil over the past five years is no longer a monetary phenomenon but a fiscal phenomenon.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

Three Essays on the Economics of International Migration [electronic resource].

requirements for Filipino performing artists, effectively closing this migration channel. I employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy using the share of performing artists at baseline in each Philippine province as a continuous policy variable. International migration falls in response to the policy change by 1.2%. The effect on international migration is larger than the policy change itself would suggest, indicating the importance of spillovers across migrant occupations. Domestically, more children are employed, and adults are more likely to be unemployed or engaged in short-term work.

Fatigue of Muscle

Apparatus for nerve muscle experiment. The machine on the right gives shocks at the desired frequency (source: Physiology at Michigan, 1850-1923 by Horace W. Davenport)

Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

Future-Proofing: Seeking Resilience in the Historic Built Environment

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on Personal Bankruptcy Law and Small Business Financing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on International Asset Allocation and Pricing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Currency Unions: Exploring the Role of Informality and Labor Mobility

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Unequally Unemployed: Labor Market Stratification After the Great Recession

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06