905 resultados para Two-stage stochastic model


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Background: The Simple Shoulder Test (SST-Sp) is a widely used outcome measure. Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a Spanish-version SST (SST-Sp). Methods: A two-stage observational study was conducted. The SST was initially cross-culturally adapted to Spanish through double forward and backward translation and then validated for its psychometric characteristics. Participants (n = 66) with several shoulder disorders completed the SST-Sp, DASH, VAS and SF-12. The full sample was employed to determine factor structure, internal consistency and concurrent criterion validity. Reliability was determined in the first 24–48 h in a subsample of 21 patients. Results: The SST-Sp showed three factors that explained the 56.1 % of variance, and the internal consistency for each factor was α = 0.738, 0.723 and 0.667, and reliability was ICC = 0.687–0.944. The factor structure was three-dimensional and supported construct validity. Criterion validity determined from the relationship between the SST-Sp and DASH was strong (r = −0.73; p < 0.001) and fair for VAS (r = −0.537; p < 0.001). Relationships between SST-Sp and SF-12 were weak for both physical (r = −0.47; p < 0.001) and mental (r = −0.43; p < 0.001) dimensions. Conclusions: The SST-Sp supports the findings of the original English version as being a valid shoulder outcome measure with similar psychometric properties to the original English version.

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Background The Spine Functional Index (SFI) is a recently published, robust and clinimetrically valid patient reported outcome measure. Objectives The purpose of this study was the adaptation and validation of a Spanish-version (SFI-Sp) with cultural and linguistic equivalence. Methods A two stage observational study was conducted. The SFI was cross-culturally adapted to Spanish through double forward and backward translation then validated for its psychometric characteristics. Participants (n = 226) with various spine conditions of >12 weeks duration completed the SFI-Sp and a region specific measure: for the back, the Roland Morris Questionnaire (RMQ) and Backache Index (BADIX); for the neck, the Neck Disability Index (NDI); for general health the EQ-5D and SF-12. The full sample was employed to determine internal consistency, concurrent criterion validity by region and health, construct validity and factor structure. A subgroup (n = 51) was used to determine reliability at seven days. Results The SFI-Sp demonstrated high internal consistency (α = 0.85) and reliability (r = 0.96). The factor structure was one-dimensional and supported construct validity. Criterion specific validity for function was high with the RMQ (r = 0.79), moderate with the BADIX (r = 0.59) and low with the NDI (r = 0.46). For general health it was low with the EQ-5D and inversely correlated (r = −0.42) and fair with the Physical and Mental Components of the SF-12 and inversely correlated (r = −0.56 and r = −0.48), respectively. The study limitations included the lack of longitudinal data regarding other psychometric properties, specifically responsiveness. Conclusions The SFI-Sp was demonstrated as a valid and reliable spine-regional outcome measure. The psychometric properties were comparable to and supported those of the English-version, however further longitudinal investigations are required.

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Species identification based on short sequences of DNA markers, that is, DNA barcoding, has emerged as an integral part of modern taxonomy. However, software for the analysis of large and multilocus barcoding data sets is scarce. The Basic Local Alignment Search Tool (BLAST) is currently the fastest tool capable of handling large databases (e.g. >5000 sequences), but its accuracy is a concern and has been criticized for its local optimization. However, current more accurate software requires sequence alignment or complex calculations, which are time-consuming when dealing with large data sets during data preprocessing or during the search stage. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a practical program for both accurate and scalable species identification for DNA barcoding. In this context, we present VIP Barcoding: a user-friendly software in graphical user interface for rapid DNA barcoding. It adopts a hybrid, two-stage algorithm. First, an alignment-free composition vector (CV) method is utilized to reduce searching space by screening a reference database. The alignment-based K2P distance nearest-neighbour method is then employed to analyse the smaller data set generated in the first stage. In comparison with other software, we demonstrate that VIP Barcoding has (i) higher accuracy than Blastn and several alignment-free methods and (ii) higher scalability than alignment-based distance methods and character-based methods. These results suggest that this platform is able to deal with both large-scale and multilocus barcoding data with accuracy and can contribute to DNA barcoding for modern taxonomy. VIP Barcoding is free and available at http://msl.sls.cuhk.edu.hk/vipbarcoding/.

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This paper considers the dynamic modelling and motion control of a Surface Effect Ship (SES) for safer transfer of personnel and equipment from vessel to-and-from an offshore wind-turbine. Such a vessel is a key enabling factor for operation and maintenance (O&M) of offshore wind-energy infrastructure. The control system designed is referred to as Boarding Control System (BCS). We investigate the performance of this system for a specific wind-farm service vessel–The Wave Craft. A two-modality vessel model is presented to account for the vessel free motion and motion whilst in contact with a wind-turbine. On a SES, the pressurized air cushion carries the majority of the vessel mass. The control problem considered relates to the actuation of the pressure such that wave-induced vessel motions are minimized. This leads to a safer personnel transfer in developed sea-states than what is possible today. Results for the BCS is presented through simulation and model-scale craft testing.

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So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

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A simple stochastic model of a fish population subject to natural and fishing mortalities is described. The fishing effort is assumed to vary over different periods but to be constant within each period. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed for estimating natural mortality (M) and the catchability coefficient (q) simultaneously from catch-and-effort data. If there is not enough contrast in the data to provide reliable estimates of both M and q, as is often the case in practice, the method can be used to obtain the best possible values of q for a range of possible values of M. These techniques are illustrated with tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) data from the Northern Prawn Fishery of Australia.

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The design and fabrication of a spool valve for a two-stage Gifford-McMahon cycle cryorefrigerator is described. The effect of this valve on the P-V diagram and practical methods of reducing the P-V degradation are also discussed.

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is a chill-susceptible crop cultivated in northern latitude environments. The detrimental effects of cold on growth and photosynthetic activity have long been established. However, a general overview of how important these processes are with respect to the reduction of productivity reported in the field is still lacking. In this study, a model-assisted approach was used to dissect variations in productivity under suboptimal temperatures and quantify the relative contributions of light interception (PARc) and radiation use efficiency (RUE) from emergence to flowering. A combination of architectural and light transfer models was used to calculate light interception in three field experiments with two cold-tolerant lines and at two sowing dates. Model assessment confirmed that the approach was suitable to infer light interception. Biomass production was strongly affected by early sowings. RUE was identified as the main cause of biomass reduction during cold events. Furthermore, PARc explained most of the variability observed at flowering, its relative contributions being more or less important according to the climate experienced. Cold temperatures resulted in lower PARc, mainly because final leaf length and width were significantly reduced for all leaves emerging after the first cold occurrence. These results confirm that virtual plants can be useful as fine phenotyping tools. A scheme of action of cold on leaf expansion, light interception and radiation use efficiency is discussed with a view towards helping breeders define relevant selection criteria. This paper originates from a presentation at the 5th International Workshop on Functional–Structural Plant Models, Napier, New Zealand, November 2007.

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Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

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We have considered a two-band Hubbard model having interlaced Cu-3d(x2−y2) and O-2p(x, y) orbitals representing the CuO2 square planes. Simple CuO2 -cluster calculation suggests that the additional holes created by doping stay mainly on oxygen. Motion of an oxygen hole interlacing with the antiferromagnetically correlated background of copper spins, creates a string of high energy spin configuration of finite length giving mass renormalization. Another hole of opposite spin can now anneal this string tension providing a triangular pairing potential for large pair momentum. The latter implies unusual Bose condensation of the wake-bound compact Bose-like pairs on a non-zero momentum shell. Effect of disorder favouring condensation at the mobility edge is pointed out.

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Recently, second-generation (non-vegetable oil) feedstocks for biodiesel production are receiving significant attention due to the cost and social effects connected with utilising food products for the production of energy products. The Beauty leaf tree (Calophyllum inophyllum) is a potential source of non-edible oil for producing second-generation biodiesel because of its suitability for production in an extensive variety of atmospheric condition, easy cultivation, high fruit production rate, and the high oil content in the seed. In this study, oil was extracted from Beauty leaf tree seeds through three different oil extraction methods. The important physical and chemical properties of these extracted Beauty leaf oils were experimentally analysed and compared with other commercially available vegetable oils. Biodiesel was produced using a two-stage esterification process combining of an acid catalysed pre-esterification process and an alkali catalysed transesterification process. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles and important physicochemical properties were experimentally measured and estimated using equations based on the FAME analysis. The quality of Beauty leaf biodiesels was assessed and compared with commercially available biodiesels through multivariate data analysis using PROMETHEE-GAIA software. The results show that mechanical extraction using a screw press produces oil at a low cost, however, results in low oil yields compared with chemical oil extraction. High pressure and temperature in the extraction process increase oil extraction performance. On the contrary, this process increases the free fatty acid content in the oil. A clear difference was found in the physical properties of Beauty leaf oils, which eventually affected the oil to biodiesel conversion process. However, Beauty leaf oils methyl esters (biodiesel) were very consistent physicochemical properties and able to meet almost all indicators of biodiesel standards. Overall this study found that Beauty leaf is a suitable feedstock for producing second-generation biodiesel in commercial scale. Therefore, the findings of this study are expected to serve as the basis for further development of Beauty leaf as a feedstock for industrial scale second-generation biodiesel production.

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The aim of the present study was to determine relationships between insurance status and utilization of oral health care and its characteristics and to identify factors related to insured patients’ selection of dental clinic or dentist. The study was based on cross-sectional data obtained through phone interviews. The target population included adults in the city of Tehran. Using a two-stage stratified random technique, 3,200 seven-digit numbers resembling real phone numbers were drawn; when calling, 1,669 numbers were unavailable (busy, no answer, fax, line blocked). Of the 1,531 subjects who answered the phone call, 224 were outside the target age (under 18), and 221 refused to respond, leaving 1,086 subjects in the final sample. The interviews were carried out using a structured questionnaire and covered characteristics of dental visits, the respondent’s reason for selecting a particular dentist or clinic and demographic and socio-economic background (gender, age, level of education, income, and insurance status). Data analysis included the Chi-square test, ANOVA, and logistic regression and the corresponding odds ratios (OR). Of all the 1,086 respondents, 57% were women, 62% were under age 35, 46% had a medium and 34% a high level of education, 13% were under the poverty line, and 70% had insurance coverage; 64% with the public, and 6% with a commercial insurance. Having insurance coverage was more likely for women (OR=1.5), for those in the oldest age group (OR=2.0), and for those with a high level of education (OR=2.5). Of those with dental insurance, 54% reported having had a dental visit within the past 12 months ; more often by those with commercial insurance in comparison with public (65% vs. 53% p<0.001). Check-up as the reason for the most recent visit occurred most frequently among those with commercial insurance (28%) compared with those having public insurance (16%) or being non-insured (13%) (p<0.001). Having had two or more dental visits within the past 12 months was most common among insured respondents, when compared with the non-insured (31% vs. 22% p=0.01). The non-insured respondents reported tooth extractions almost twice as frequently as did the insured ones (p<0.001). Of the 726 insured subjects, 60% selected fully out-of-pocket-paid services (FOP), and 53% were unaware of their insurance benefits. Of those who selected FOP, good interpersonal aspects (OR=4.6), being unaware of dental insurance benefits (OR=4.6), and good technical aspects (OR=2.3) as a reason had greater odds of selecting FOP. The present study revealed that dental insurance was positively related to demand for oral health care as well as to utilization of services, but to the latter with a minor extent. Among insured respondents, despite their opportunity to use fully or highly subsidized oral health care services, good interpersonal relationship and high quality of services were the most important factors when an insured patient selected a dentist or a clinic. The present findings indicate a clear need to modify dental insurance systems in Iran to facilitate optimal use of oral health care services to maximize the oral health of the population. A special emphasis in the insurance schemes should be focused on preventive care.

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We used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to study the reorientational dynamics of water molecules confined inside narrow carbon nanotubes immersed in a bath of water. Our simulations show that the confined water molecules exhibit bistability in their reorientational relaxation, which proceeds by angular jumps between the two stable states. The angular jump of a water molecule in the bulk involves the breaking of a hydrogen bond with one of its neighbors and the formation of a hydrogen bond with a different neighbor. In contrast, the angular jump of a confined water molecule corresponds to an interchange of the two hydrogen atoms that can form a hydrogen bond with the same neighbor. The free energy barrier between these two states is a few k(B)T. The analytic solution of a simplified two-state jump model that qualitatively explains the reorientational behavior observed in simulations is also presented.

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Anthocyanins are located within the vacuole of plant cells, and are released following cell rupture during eating or processing at which time they first come into contact with the plant cell wall. The extent of anthocyanin-cell wall interaction was investigated by monitoring the rate of anthocyanin depletion in the presence of pure cellulose or cellulose-pectin composites as cell wall models. It was found that anthocyanins interact with both cellulose and pectin over a two-stage process with initially (mins-hours) 13 similar to 18% of anthocyanins binding to cellulose or cellulose/pectincomposites. With prolonged exposure (days-weeks), a gradual increase in anthocyanin binding occurs, possibly due to anthocyanins stacking on top of a base layer. Binding of acylated and non-acylated anthocyanins followed a similar pattern with slightly more (5-10%) binding of the acylated forms. Composites with the highest pectin content had the greatest anthocyanin binding suggesting the existence of both ionic interactions (with pectin) and hydrophobic interactions (with cellulose) of anthocyanin with plant cell walls.

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A new two-stage state feedback control design approach has been developed to monitor the voltage supplied to magnetorheological (MR) dampers for semi-active vibration control of the benchmark highway bridge. The first stage contains a primary controller, which provides the force required to obtain a desired closed-loop response of the system. In the second stage, an optimal dynamic inversion (ODI) approach has been developed to obtain the amount of voltage to be supplied to each of the MR dampers such that it provides the required force prescribed by the primary controller. ODI is formulated by optimization with dynamic inversion, such that an optimal voltage is supplied to each damper in a set. The proposed control design has been simulated for both phase-I and phase-II study of the recently developed benchmark highway bridge problem. The efficiency of the proposed controller is analyzed in terms of the performance indices defined in the benchmark problem definition. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach generally reduces peak response quantities over those obtained from the sample semi-active controller, although some response quantities have been seen to be increasing. Overall, the proposed control approach is quite competitive as compared with the sample semi-active control approach.