943 resultados para Travel time prediction
Resumo:
In this article I shall argue that understandings of what constitutes narrative, how it functions, and the contexts in which it applies have broadened in line with cultural, social and intellectual trends which have seen a blurring, if not the dissolution, of boundaries between ‘fact’ and ‘fiction’; ‘literary’ and ‘non-literary’ narrative spaces; history and story; concepts of time and space, text and image, teller and tale, representation and reality.To illustrate some of the ways in which the concept of narrative has travelled across disciplinary and generic boundaries, I shall look at The Art of Travel (de Botton 2003), with a view to demonstrating how the blending of genres works to produce a narrative that is at once personal and philosophical; visual and verbal; didactic and poetic. I shall show that such a text constitutes a site of interrogation of concepts of narrative, even as it depends on the reader’s ability to narrativize experience.
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The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.
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The EEG time series has been subjected to various formalisms of analysis to extract meaningful information regarding the underlying neural events. In this paper the linear prediction (LP) method has been used for analysis and presentation of spectral array data for the better visualisation of background EEG activity. It has also been used for signal generation, efficient data storage and transmission of EEG. The LP method is compared with the standard Fourier method of compressed spectral array (CSA) of the multichannel EEG data. The autocorrelation autoregressive (AR) technique is used for obtaining the LP coefficients with a model order of 15. While the Fourier method reduces the data only by half, the LP method just requires the storage of signal variance and LP coefficients. The signal generated using white Gaussian noise as the input to the LP filter has a high correlation coefficient of 0.97 with that of original signal, thus making LP as a useful tool for storage and transmission of EEG. The biological significance of Fourier method and the LP method in respect to the microstructure of neuronal events in the generation of EEG is discussed.
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A phenomenological model has been developed for predicting separation factors obtained in concentrating protein solutions using batch-foam columns. The model considers the adsorption of surface active proteins onto the air-water interface of bubbles, and drainage of liquid from the foam, which are the two predominant processes responsible for separation in foam columns. The model has been verified with data collected on casein and bovine serum albumin (BSA) solutions, for which adsorption isotherms are available in the literature. It has been found that an increase in liquid pool height above the gas distributor and the time allowed for drainage result in a better separation. Further, taller foam columns yield poorer separation at constant time of drainage. The model successfully predicts the observed results. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.
Resumo:
Estimation of creep and shrinkage are critical in order to compute loss of prestress with time in order to compute leak tightness and assess safety margins available in containment structures of nuclear power plants. Short-term creep and shrinkage experiments have been conducted using in-house test facilities developed specifically for the present research program on 35 and 45 MPa normal concrete and 25 MPa heavy density concrete. The extensive experimental program for creep, has cylinders subject to sustained levels of load typically for several days duration (till negligible strain increase with time is observed in the creep specimen), to provide the total creep strain versus time curves for the two normal density concrete grades and one heavy density concrete grade at different load levels, different ages at loading, and at different relative humidity’s. Shrinkage studies on prism specimen for concrete of the same mix grades are also being studied. In the first instance, creep and shrinkage prediction models reported in the literature has been used to predict the creep and shrinkage levels in subsequent experimental data with acceptable accuracy. While macro-scale short experiments and analytical model development to estimate time dependent deformation under sustained loads over long term, accounting for the composite rheology through the influence of parameters such as the characteristic strength, age of concrete at loading, relative humidity, temperature, mix proportion (cement: fine aggregate: coarse aggregate: water) and volume to surface ratio and the associated uncertainties in these variables form one part of the study, it is widely believed that strength, early age rheology, creep and shrinkage are affected by the material properties at the nano-scale that are not well established. In order to understand and improve cement and concrete properties, investigation of the nanostructure of the composite and how it relates to the local mechanical properties is being undertaken. While results of creep and shrinkage obtained at macro-scale and their predictions through rheological modeling are satisfactory, the nano and micro indenting experimental and analytical studies are presently underway. Computational mechanics based models for creep and shrinkage in concrete must necessarily account for numerous parameters that impact their short and long term response. A Kelvin type model with several elements representing the influence of various factors that impact the behaviour is under development. The immediate short term deformation (elastic response), effects of relative humidity and temperature, volume to surface ratio, water cement ratio and aggregate cement ratio, load levels and age of concrete at loading are parameters accounted for in this model. Inputs to this model, such as the pore structure and mechanical properties at micro/nano scale have been taken from scanning electron microscopy and micro/nano-indenting of the sample specimen.
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Many shallow landslides are triggered by heavy rainfall on hill slopes resulting in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. Hill slope failure usually occurs as soil resistance deteriorates in the presence of the acting stress developed due to a number of reasons such as increased soil moisture content, change in land use causing slope instability, etc. Landslides triggered by rainfall can possibly be foreseen in real time by jointly using rainfall intensity-duration and information related to land surface susceptibility. Terrain analysis applications using spatial data such as aspect, slope, flow direction, compound topographic index, etc. along with information derived from remotely sensed data such as land cover / land use maps permit us to quantify and characterise the physical processes governing the landslide occurrence phenomenon. In this work, the probable landslide prone areas are predicted using two different algorithms – GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) in a free and open source software package - openModeller. Several environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation data, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index, and precipitation data were used in modelling. A comparison of the simulated outputs, validated by overlaying the actual landslide occurrence points showed 92% accuracy with GARP and 96% accuracy with SVM in predicting landslide prone areas considering precipitation in the wettest month whereas 91% and 94% accuracy were obtained from GARP and SVM considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.
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The contemporary methods for source characterization rely mainly on experiments. These methods produce inaccurate results in the low‐frequency band, where the characteristics are all the more important. Moreover, the experimental methods cannot be used at the design stage. Hence, a numerical technique to obtain the source characteristics is desirable. In this paper, the pressure‐time history and the mass‐flux‐time history obtained by means of the time‐domain analysis have been used, along with the two‐load method to compute the source characteristics. Two new computational methods for obtaining the source characteristics have been described. These are much simpler, and computationally more economical than the complete time‐domain simulation, which makes use of the method of characteristics.
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He propose a new time domain method for efficient representation of the KCG and delineation of its component waves. The method is based on the multipulse Linear prediction (LP) coding which is being widely used in speech processing. The excitation to the LP synthesis filter consists of a few pulses defined by their locations and amplitudes. Based on the amplitudes and their distribution, the pulses are suitably combined to delineate the component waves. Beat to beat correlation in the ECG signal is used in QRS periodicity prediction. The method entails a data compression of 1 in 6. The method reconstructs the signal with an NMSE of less than 5%.
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In this paper, we give a brief review of pattern classification algorithms based on discriminant analysis. We then apply these algorithms to classify movement direction based on multivariate local field potentials recorded from a microelectrode array in the primary motor cortex of a monkey performing a reaching task. We obtain prediction accuracies between 55% and 90% using different methods which are significantly above the chance level of 12.5%.
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We investigate the effect of static electron-phonon coupling on real-time dynamics of spin and charge transport in pi-conjugated polyene chains. The polyene chain is modeled by the Pariser-Parr-Pople Hamiltonian with dimerized nearest-neighbor parameter t(0)(1 + delta) for short bonds and t(0)(1 - delta) for long bonds, and long-range electron-electron interactions. We follow the time evolution of the spin and charge using time-dependent density matrix renormalization group technique when a hole is injected at one end of the chain in its ground state. We find that spin and charge dynamics followed through spin and charge velocities depend both on chain length and extent of dimerization delta. Analysis of the results requires focusing on physical quantities such as average spin and charge polarizations, particularly in the large dimerization limit. In the dimerization range 0.0 <= delta <= 0.15, spin-charge dynamics is found to have a well-defined behavior, with spin-charge separation (measured as the ratio of charge velocity to spin velocity) as well as the total amount of charge and spin transported in a given time along the chain decreasing as dimerization increases. However, in the range 0.3 <= delta <= 0.5, it is observed that the dynamics of spin and charge transport becomes complicated. It is observed that, for large delta values, spin-charge separation is suppressed and the injected hole fails to travel the entire length of the chain.
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The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.
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This paper presents a method for placement of Phasor Measurement Units, ensuring the monitoring of vulnerable buses which are obtained based on transient stability analysis of the overall system. Real-time monitoring of phase angles across different nodes, which indicates the proximity to instability, the very purpose will be well defined if the PMUs are placed at buses which are more vulnerable. The issue is to identify the key buses where the PMUs should be placed when the transient stability prediction is taken into account considering various disturbances. Integer Linear Programming technique with equality and inequality constraints is used to find out the optimal placement set with key buses identified from transient stability analysis. Results on IEEE-14 bus system are presented to illustrate the proposed approach.
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South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
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Receive antenna selection (AS) has been shown to maintain the diversity benefits of multiple antennas while potentially reducing hardware costs. However, the promised diversity gains of receive AS depend on the assumptions of perfect channel knowledge at the receiver and slowly time-varying fading. By explicitly accounting for practical constraints imposed by the next-generation wireless standards such as training, packetization and antenna switching time, we propose a single receive AS method for time-varying fading channels. The method exploits the low training overhead and accuracy possible from the use of discrete prolate spheroidal (DPS) sequences based reduced rank subspace projection techniques. It only requires knowledge of the Doppler bandwidth, and does not require detailed correlation knowledge. Closed-form expressions for the channel prediction and estimation error as well as symbol error probability (SEP) of M-ary phase-shift keying (MPSK) for symbol-by-symbol receive AS are also derived. It is shown that the proposed AS scheme, after accounting for the practical limitations mentioned above, outperforms the ideal conventional single-input single-output (SISO) system with perfect CSI and no AS at the receiver and AS with conventional estimation based on complex exponential basis functions.
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Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3-8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal-India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.