MORM--a Petri net based model for assessing OH&S risks in industrial processes: modeling qualitative aspects.

Because of the increase in workplace automation and the diversification of industrial processes, workplaces have become more and more complex. The classical approaches used to address workplace hazard concerns, such as checklists or sequence models, are, therefore, of limited use in such complex systems. Moreover, because of the multifaceted nature of workplaces, the use of single-oriented methods, such as AEA (man oriented), FMEA (system oriented), or HAZOP (process oriented), is not satisfactory. The use of a dynamic modeling approach in order to allow multiple-oriented analyses may constitute an alternative to overcome this limitation. The qualitative modeling aspects of the MORM (man-machine occupational risk modeling) model are discussed in this article. The model, realized on an object-oriented Petri net tool (CO-OPN), has been developed to simulate and analyze industrial processes in an OH&S perspective. The industrial process is modeled as a set of interconnected subnets (state spaces), which describe its constitutive machines. Process-related factors are introduced, in an explicit way, through machine interconnections and flow properties. While man-machine interactions are modeled as triggering events for the state spaces of the machines, the CREAM cognitive behavior model is used in order to establish the relevant triggering events. In the CO-OPN formalism, the model is expressed as a set of interconnected CO-OPN objects defined over data types expressing the measure attached to the flow of entities transiting through the machines. Constraints on the measures assigned to these entities are used to determine the state changes in each machine. Interconnecting machines implies the composition of such flow and consequently the interconnection of the measure constraints. This is reflected by the construction of constraint enrichment hierarchies, which can be used for simulation and analysis optimization in a clear mathematical framework. The use of Petri nets to perform multiple-oriented analysis opens perspectives in the field of industrial risk management. It may significantly reduce the duration of the assessment process. But, most of all, it opens perspectives in the field of risk comparisons and integrated risk management. Moreover, because of the generic nature of the model and tool used, the same concepts and patterns may be used to model a wide range of systems and application fields.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Symmetries and fixed point stability of stochastic differential equations modeling self-organized criticality

A stochastic nonlinear partial differential equation is constructed for two different models exhibiting self-organized criticality: the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381 (1987); Phys. Rev. A 38, 364 (1988)] and the Zhang model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 63, 470 (1989)]. The dynamic renormalization group (DRG) enables one to compute the critical exponents. However, the nontrivial stable fixed point of the DRG transformation is unreachable for the original parameters of the models. We introduce an alternative regularization of the step function involved in the threshold condition, which breaks the symmetry of the BTW model. Although the symmetry properties of the two models are different, it is shown that they both belong to the same universality class. In this case the DRG procedure leads to a symmetric behavior for both models, restoring the broken symmetry, and makes accessible the nontrivial fixed point. This technique could also be applied to other problems with threshold dynamics.

MODELING OF SOIL LOAD-BEARING CAPACITY AS A FUNCTION OF SOIL MECHANICAL RESISTANCE TO PENETRATION

Estimation of soil load-bearing capacity from mathematical models that relate preconsolidation pressure (σp) to mechanical resistance to penetration (PR) and gravimetric soil water content (U) is important for defining strategies to prevent compaction of agricultural soils. Our objective was therefore to model the σp and compression index (CI) according to the PR (with an impact penetrometer in the field and a static penetrometer inserted at a constant rate in the laboratory) and U in a Rhodic Eutrudox. The experiment consisted of six treatments: no-tillage system (NT); NT with chiseling; and NT with additional compaction by combine traffic (passing 4, 8, 10, and 20 times). Soil bulk density, total porosity, PR (in field and laboratory measurements), U, σp, and CI values were determined in the 5.5-10.5 cm and 13.5-18.5 cm layers. Preconsolidation pressure (σp) and CI were modeled according to PR in different U. The σp increased and the CI decreased linearly with increases in the PR values. The correlations between σp and PR and PR and CI are influenced by U. From these correlations, the soil load-bearing capacity and compaction susceptibility can be estimated by PR readings evaluated in different U.

MERCURY QUANTIFICATION IN SOILS USING THERMAL DESORPTION AND ATOMIC ABSORPTION SPECTROMETRY: PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE METHOD OF ANALYSIS

Despite the considerable environmental importance of mercury (Hg), given its high toxicity and ability to contaminate large areas via atmospheric deposition, little is known about its activity in soils, especially tropical soils, in comparison with other heavy metals. This lack of information about Hg arises because analytical methods for determination of Hg are more laborious and expensive compared to methods for other heavy metals. The situation is even more precarious regarding speciation of Hg in soils since sequential extraction methods are also inefficient for this metal. The aim of this paper is to present a technique of thermal desorption associated with atomic absorption spectrometry, TDAAS, as an efficient tool for quantitative determination of Hg in soils. The method consists of the release of Hg by heating, followed by its quantification by atomic absorption spectrometry. It was developed by constructing calibration curves in different soil samples based on increasing volumes of standard Hg2+ solutions. Performance, accuracy, precision, and quantification and detection limit parameters were evaluated. No matrix interference was detected. Certified reference samples and comparison with a Direct Mercury Analyzer, DMA (another highly recognized technique), were used in validation of the method, which proved to be accurate and precise.

Surface Complexation Modeling in Variable Charge Soils: Charge Characterization by Potentiometric Titration

ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants of 17 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from potentiometric titration measuring the adsorption of H+ and OH− on amphoteric surfaces in suspensions of varying ionic strength. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. The former was fitted by calculating total site concentration from curve fitting estimates and pH-extrapolation of the intrinsic equilibrium constants to the PZNPC (hand calculation), considering one and two reactive sites, and by the FITEQL software. The latter was fitted only by FITEQL, with one reactive site. Soil chemical and physical properties were correlated to the intrinsic equilibrium constants. Both surface complexation models satisfactorily fit our experimental data, but for results at low ionic strength, optimization did not converge in FITEQL. Data were incorporated in Visual MINTEQ and they provide a modeling system that can predict protonation-dissociation reactions in the soil surface under changing environmental conditions.

Surface Complexation Modeling in Variable Charge Soils: Prediction of Cadmium Adsorption

ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants for 22 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from a cadmium adsorption experiment. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. Intrinsic equilibrium constants were optimized by FITEQL and by hand calculation using Visual MINTEQ in sweep mode, and Excel spreadsheets. Data from both models were incorporated into Visual MINTEQ. Constants estimated by FITEQL and incorporated in Visual MINTEQ software failed to predict observed data accurately. However, FITEQL raw output data rendered good results when predicted values were directly compared with observed values, instead of incorporating the estimated constants into Visual MINTEQ. Intrinsic equilibrium constants optimized by hand calculation and incorporated in Visual MINTEQ reliably predicted Cd adsorption reactions on soil surfaces under changing environmental conditions.

Thermal evolution of gene expression profiles in Drosophila subobscura

Background: Despite its pervasiveness, the genetic basis of adaptation resulting in variation directly or indirectly related to temperature (climatic) gradients is poorly understood. By using 3-fold replicated laboratory thermal stocks covering much of the physiologically tolerable temperature range for the temperate (i.e., cold tolerant) species Drosophila subobscura we have assessed whole-genome transcriptional responses after three years of thermal adaptation, when the populations had already diverged for inversion frequencies, pre-adult life history components, and morphological traits. Total mRNA from each population was compared to a reference pool mRNA in a standard, highly replicated two-colour competitive hybridization experiment using cDNA microarrays.Results: A total of 306 (6.6%) cDNA clones were identified as 'differentially expressed' (following a false discovery rate correction) after contrasting the two furthest apart thermal selection regimes (i.e., 13°C vs . 22°C), also including four previously reported candidate genes for thermotolerance in Drosophila (Hsp26, Hsp68, Fst, and Treh). On the other hand, correlated patterns of gene expression were similar in cold- and warm-adapted populations. Analysis of functional categories defined by the Gene Ontology project point to an overrepresentation of genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism, nucleic acids metabolism and regulation of transcription among other categories. Although the location of differently expressed genes was approximately at random with respect to chromosomes, a physical mapping of 88 probes to the polytene chromosomes of D. subobscura has shown that a larger than expected number mapped inside inverted chromosomal segments.Conclusion: Our data suggest that a sizeable number of genes appear to be involved in thermal adaptation in Drosophila, with a substantial fraction implicated in metabolism. This apparently illustrates the formidable challenge to understanding the adaptive evolution of complex trait variation. Furthermore, some clustering of genes within inverted chromosomal sections was detected. Disentangling the effects of inversions will be obviously required in any future approach if we want to identify the relevant candidate genes.

Task 6: Material Thermal Input for Iowa Materials, May 2008

The present research project was designed to determine thermal properties, such as coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and thermal conductivity, of Iowa concrete pavement materials. These properties are required as input values by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). In this project, a literature review was conducted to determine the factors that affect thermal properties of concrete and the existing prediction equations for CTE and thermal conductivity of concrete. CTE tests were performed on various lab and field samples of portland cement concrete (PCC) at the Iowa Department of Transportation and Iowa State University. The variations due to the test procedure, the equipment used, and the consistency of field batch materials were evaluated. The test results showed that the CTE variations due to test procedure and batch consistency were less than 5%, and the variation due to the different equipment was less than 15%. Concrete CTE values were significantly affected by different types of coarse aggregate. The CTE values of Iowa concrete made with limestone+graval, quartzite, dolomite, limestone+dolomite, and limestone were 7.27, 6.86, 6.68, 5.83, and 5.69 microstrain/oF (13.08, 12.35, 12.03, 10.50, and 10.25 microstrain/oC), respectively, which were all higher than the default value of 5.50 microstrain/oF in the MEPDG program. The thermal conductivity of a typical Iowa PCC mix and an asphalt cement concrete (ACC) mix (both with limestone as coarse aggregate) were tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory in Skokie, Illinois. The thermal conductivity was 0.77 Btu/hr•ft•oF (1.33 W/m•K) for PCC and 1.21 Btu/hr•ft•oF (2.09 W/m•K) for ACC, which are different from the default values (1.25 Btu/hr•ft•oF or 2.16 W/m•K for PCC and 0.67 Btu/hr•ft•oF or 1.16 W/m•K for ACC) in the MEPDG program. The investigations onto the CTE of ACC and the effects of concrete materials (such as cementitious material and aggregate types) and mix proportions on concrete thermal conductivity are recommended to be considered in future studies.

Thermal energetics and torpor in the common pipistrelle bat, Pipistrellus pipistrellus (Vespertilionidae: Mammalia).

Rate of metabolism and body temperature were studied between -6°C and 38°C in the common pipistrelle bat Pipistrellus pipistrellus (Vespertilionidae), a European species lying close to the lower end of the mammalian size range (body mass 4.9±0.8g, N=28). Individuals maintained only occasionally a normothermic body temperature averaging 35.4±1.1°C (N=4) and often showed torpor during metabolic runs. The thermoneutral zone was found above 33°C, and basal rate of metabolism averaged 7.6±0.8mL O(2)h(-1) (N=28), which is 69% of the value predicted on the basis of body mass. Minimal wet thermal conductance was 161% of the expected value. During torpor, the rate of metabolism was related exponentially to body temperature with a Q(10) value of 2.57. Torpid bats showed intermittent ventilation, with the frequency of ventilatory cycles increasing exponentially with body temperature. Basal rate of metabolism (BMR) varied significantly with season and body temperature, but not with body mass. It was lower before the hibernation period than during the summer. The patterns observed are generally consistent with those exhibited by other vespertilionids of temperate regions. However, divergences occur with previous measurements on European pipistrelles, and the causes of the seasonal variation in BMR, which has only rarely been searched for among vespertilionids, remain to be examined.

Material Thermal Inputs of Iowa Materials for MEPDG, 2011

The thermal properties of concrete materials, such as coeffi cient of thermal expansion (CTE), thermal conductivity, and heat capacity, are required by the MEPDG program as the material inputs for pavement design. However, a limited amount of test data is available on the thermal properties of concrete in Iowa. The default values provided by the MEPDG program may not be suitable for Iowa concrete, since aggregate characteristics have signifi cant infl uence on concrete thermal properties.

High-throughput SELEX SAGE method for quantitative modeling of transcription-factor binding sites.

The ability to determine the location and relative strength of all transcription-factor binding sites in a genome is important both for a comprehensive understanding of gene regulation and for effective promoter engineering in biotechnological applications. Here we present a bioinformatically driven experimental method to accurately define the DNA-binding sequence specificity of transcription factors. A generalized profile was used as a predictive quantitative model for binding sites, and its parameters were estimated from in vitro-selected ligands using standard hidden Markov model training algorithms. Computer simulations showed that several thousand low- to medium-affinity sequences are required to generate a profile of desired accuracy. To produce data on this scale, we applied high-throughput genomics methods to the biochemical problem addressed here. A method combining systematic evolution of ligands by exponential enrichment (SELEX) and serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) protocols was coupled to an automated quality-controlled sequence extraction procedure based on Phred quality scores. This allowed the sequencing of a database of more than 10,000 potential DNA ligands for the CTF/NFI transcription factor. The resulting binding-site model defines the sequence specificity of this protein with a high degree of accuracy not achieved earlier and thereby makes it possible to identify previously unknown regulatory sequences in genomic DNA. A covariance analysis of the selected sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism.