Simulating a typhoon storm surge in the East Sea of China using a coupled model

A coupled numerical model with a 2' x 2' resolution grid has been developed and used to simulate five typical typhoon storm surges (5612, 7413, 7910, 8114, and 9711) in the East Sea of China. Three main driving forces have been considered in this coupled model: wave radiation stress, combined wave-current bottom shear stress and wave-state-dependent surface wind stress. This model has then been compared with in situ measurements of the storm set-up. The effect of different driving force components on the total storm surge has also been investigated. This study has found that the coupled model with high resolution is capable of simulating the five typical typhoons better than the uncoupled models, and that the wave-dependent surface wind stress plays an important role in typhoon storm surge-wave coupling in this area and can increase the storm set-up by 1 m. The study of the five typhoon cases has shown that the general coupling effects could increase storm set-up by 20-32%. Thus, it is suggested that to predict typhoon storm surges in the East Sea of China, a storm surge-wave coupled model be adopted. (C) 2008 National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier Limited and Science in China Press. All rights reserved.

Mean sea surface heights of the South and East China Seas from ocean circulation model and geodetic leveling

The mean sea surface heights (sea surface topography) of the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas are derived from an ocean general circulation model and surface air pressure. The circulation model covers the global oceans, with fine grid (1/6degrees) covering the East Asian marginal seas and coarse grid (31) covering the rest part of the global oceans. The result shows that the China 1985 National Altitude Datum is 24.7 cm above the me-an sea surface height of the world oceans. The mean sea surface in the coastal ocean adjacent to China is higher in the south than in the north. Intercomparison of the model results with the geodetic leveling measurements at 28 coastal tidal stations shows a standard deviation of 4.8 cm and a fitting coefficient of 95.3%. After correction through linear regression, the standard deviation is reduced to 4.5 cm. This indicates that the accuracy of model results is sufficient for practical application. Based on the model results, the mean sea surface heights for the study area with a resolution of 1/6 degree are given. This result also links the mean sea levels at islands with those on the mainland coast and gives the mean sea surface heights at tidal stations in the Taiwan Island, the Dongsha Islands, the Yisha Islands and the Nansha Islands relative to the China 1985 National Altitude Datum.

A three-dimensional coupled physical-biological model study in the spring of 1993 in the Bohai Sea of China

A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical and biological model was used to investigate the physical processes and their influence on the ecosystem dynamics of the Bohai Sea of China. The physical processes include M-2 tide, time - varying wind forcing and river discharge. Wind records from I to 31 May in 1993 were selected to force the model. The biological model is based on a simple, nitrate and phosphate limited, lower trophic food web system. The simulated results showed that variation of residual currents forced by M, tide, river discharge and time-varying wind had great impact on the distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the Laizhou Bay. High phytoplankton biomass appeared in the upwelling region. Numerical experiments based on the barotropic model and baroclinic model with no wind and water discharge were also conducted. Differences in the results by the baroclinic model and the barotropic model were significant: more patches appeared in the baroclinic model comparing with the barotropic model. And in the baroclinic model, the subsurface maximum phytoplankton biomass patches formed in the stratified water.

A Computational Model for the Acquisition and Use of Phonological Knowledge

Does knowledge of language consist of symbolic rules? How do children learn and use their linguistic knowledge? To elucidate these questions, we present a computational model that acquires phonological knowledge from a corpus of common English nouns and verbs. In our model the phonological knowledge is encapsulated as boolean constraints operating on classical linguistic representations of speech sounds in term of distinctive features. The learning algorithm compiles a corpus of words into increasingly sophisticated constraints. The algorithm is incremental, greedy, and fast. It yields one-shot learning of phonological constraints from a few examples. Our system exhibits behavior similar to that of young children learning phonological knowledge. As a bonus the constraints can be interpreted as classical linguistic rules. The computational model can be implemented by a surprisingly simple hardware mechanism. Our mechanism also sheds light on a fundamental AI question: How are signals related to symbols?

Supporting the case for “progressive universalism” in health visiting: Scottish mothers and health visitors’ perspectives on targeting and rationing health visiting services, with a focus on the Lothian Child Concern Model.

Aims. To explore parents and professionals’ experience of family assessment in health visiting (public health nursing), with a focus on the Lothian Child Concern Model (LCCM). Background. Health visitors (HVs) currently assess families as requiring core, additional or intensive support, and offer support at a corresponding level. The majority of families are assessed as core and receive no pro-active support beyond the early days. Previous assessment tools, consisting of checklists, have been criticised as being ineffective in identifying a range of health needs and unacceptable to parents and HVs. The LCCM model was developed and introduced in the study area to promote a partnership approach with parents and assess strengths as well as difficulties in parents’ capacity to care for their child. Methods. Qualitative methods were used. Ten mothers and twelve HVs took part in individual semi-structured interviews. Results. Most mothers were aware of the assessment process but some felt that they were not involved in the decision making process. Explaining the assessment process to parents is problematic and not all HVs do so. The assessment process was stressful for some mothers. HVs find the model useful for structuring and documenting the assessment process. Many believe that most families benefit from some support, using public health approaches. Families are often assessed as core because there are insufficient resources to support all those who meet the criteria of the additional category, and managers assess caseloads in terms of families with child protection concerns. Conclusions. The study findings support the concept of “progressive universalism” which provides a continuum of intensity of support to families, depending on need. Mothers would like better partnership working with HVs. Relevance to clinical practice. The study endorses proposed policy changes to re-establish the public health role of HVs and to lower the threshold for families to qualify for support.

An empirical 3D model of the large-scale coronal structure based on the distribution of H? filaments on the solar disk

Morgan, H.; Habbal, S. R., An empirical 3D model of the large-scale coronal structure based on the distribution of H? filaments on the solar disk, Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 464, Issue 1, March II 2007, pp.357-365

Using a logical model to predict the growth of yeast

Whelan, K. E. and King, R. D. Using a logical model to predict the growth of yeast. BMC Bioinformatics 2008, 9:97

The development of a computer model to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system

A computer model has been developed to optimize the performance of a 50kWp photovoltaic system which supplies electrical energy to a dairy farm at Fota Island in Cork Harbour. Optimization of the system involves maximising the efficiency and increasing the performance and reliability of each hardware unit. The model accepts horizontal insolation, ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction and load demand as inputs. An optimization program uses the computer model to simulate the optimum operating conditions. From this analysis, criteria are established which are used to improve the photovoltaic system operation. This thesis describes the model concepts, the model implementation and the model verification procedures used during development. It also describes the techniques which are used during system optimization. The software, which is written in FORTRAN, is structured in modular units to provide logical and efficient programming. These modular units may also be used in the modelling and optimization of other photovoltaic systems.

Inclusive education policy, the general allocation model and dilemmas of practice in primary schools

Background: Inclusive education is central to contemporary discourse internationally reflecting societies’ wider commitment to social inclusion. Education has witnessed transforming approaches that have created differing distributions of power, resource allocation and accountability. Multiple actors are being forced to consider changes to how key services and supports are organised. This research constitutes a case study situated within this broader social service dilemma of how to distribute finite resources equitably to meet individual need, while advancing inclusion. It focuses on the national directive with regard to inclusive educational practice for primary schools, Department of Education and Science Special Education Circular 02/05, which introduced the General Allocation Model (GAM) within the legislative context of the Education of Persons with Special Educational Needs (EPSEN) Act (Government of Ireland, 2004). This research could help to inform policy with ‘facts about what is happening on the ground’ (Quinn, 2013). Research Aims: The research set out to unearth the assumptions and definitions embedded within the policy document, to analyse how those who are at the coalface of policy, and who interface with multiple interests in primary schools, understand the GAM and respond to it, and to investigate its effects on students and their education. It examines student outcomes in the primary schools where the GAM was investigated. Methods and Sample The post-structural study acknowledges the importance of policy analysis which explicitly links the ‘bigger worlds’ of global and national policy contexts to the ‘smaller worlds’ of policies and practices within schools and classrooms. This study insists upon taking the detail seriously (Ozga, 1990). A mixed methods approach to data collection and analysis is applied. In order to secure the perspectives of key stakeholders, semi-structured interviews were conducted with primary school principals, class teachers and learning support/resource teachers (n=14) in three distinct mainstream, non-DEIS schools. Data from the schools and their environs provided a profile of students. The researcher then used the Pobal Maps Facility (available at www.pobal.ie) to identify the Small Area (SA) in which each student resides, and to assign values to each address based on the Pobal HP Deprivation Index (Haase and Pratschke, 2012). Analysis of the datasets, guided by the conceptual framework of the policy cycle (Ball, 1994), revealed a number of significant themes. Results: Data illustrate that the main model to support student need is withdrawal from the classroom under policy that espouses inclusion. Quantitative data, in particular, highlighted an association between segregated practice and lower socioeconomic status (LSES) backgrounds of students. Up to 83% of the students in special education programmes are from lower socio-economic status (LSES) backgrounds. In some schools 94% of students from LSES backgrounds are withdrawn from classrooms daily for special education. While the internal processes of schooling are not solely to blame for class inequalities, this study reveals the power of professionals to order children in school, which has implications for segregated special education practice. Such agency on the part of key actors in the context of practice relates to ‘local constructions of dis/ability’, which is influenced by teacher habitus (Bourdieu, 1984). The researcher contends that inclusive education has not resulted in positive outcomes for students from LSES backgrounds because it is built on faulty assumptions that focus on a psycho-medical perspective of dis/ability, that is, placement decisions do not consider the intersectionality of dis/ability with class or culture. This study argues that the student need for support is better understood as ‘home/school discontinuity’ not ‘disability’. Moreover, the study unearths the power of some parents to use social and cultural capital to ensure eligibility to enhanced resources. Therefore, a hierarchical system has developed in mainstream schools as a result of funding models to support need in inclusive settings. Furthermore, all schools in the study are ‘ordinary’ schools yet participants acknowledged that some schools are more ‘advantaged’, which may suggest that ‘ordinary’ schools serve to ‘bury class’ (Reay, 2010) as a key marker in allocating resources. The research suggests that general allocation models of funding to meet the needs of students demands a systematic approach grounded in reallocating funds from where they have less benefit to where they have more. The calculation of the composite Haase Value in respect of the student cohort in receipt of special education support adopted for this study could be usefully applied at a national level to ensure that the greatest level of support is targeted at greatest need. Conclusion: In summary, the study reveals that existing structures constrain and enable agents, whose interactions produce intended and unintended consequences. The study suggests that policy should be viewed as a continuous and evolving cycle (Ball, 1994) where actors in each of the social contexts have a shared responsibility in the evolution of education that is equitable, excellent and inclusive.

The development of a model of continuing professional development for teachers of primary science

A new science curriculum was introduced to primary schools in the Republic of Ireland in 2003. This curriculum, broader in scope than its 1971 predecessor (Curaclam na Bunscoile, 1971), requires teachers at all levels of primary school to teach science. A review carried out in 2008 of children’s experiences of this curriculum found that its implementation throughout the country was uneven. This finding, together with the increasing numbers of teachers who were requesting support to implement this curriculum, suggested the need for a review of Irish primary teachers’ needs in the area of science. The research study described in this thesis was undertaken to establish the extent of Irish primary teachers’ needs in the area of science by conducting a national survey. The data from this survey, together with data from international studies, were used to develop a theoretical framework for a model of Continuing Professional Development (CPD). This theoretical framework was used to design the Whole- School, In-School (WSIS) CPD model which was trialled in two case-study schools. The participants in these ‘action-research’ case-studies acted as co-researchers, who contributed to the development and evolution of the CPD model in each school. Analysis of the data gathered as part of the evaluation of the Whole-School, In- School (WSIS) model of CPD found an improved experience of science for children and improved confidence for teachers teaching at all levels of the primary school. In addition, a template for the establishment of a culture of collaborative CPD in schools has been developed from an analysis of the data

A memory-based model of posttraumatic stress disorder: evaluating basic assumptions underlying the PTSD diagnosis.

In the mnemonic model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the current memory of a negative event, not the event itself, determines symptoms. The model is an alternative to the current event-based etiology of PTSD represented in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association, 2000). The model accounts for important and reliable findings that are often inconsistent with the current diagnostic view and that have been neglected by theoretical accounts of the disorder, including the following observations. The diagnosis needs objective information about the trauma and peritraumatic emotions but uses retrospective memory reports that can have substantial biases. Negative events and emotions that do not satisfy the current diagnostic criteria for a trauma can be followed by symptoms that would otherwise qualify for PTSD. Predisposing factors that affect the current memory have large effects on symptoms. The inability-to-recall-an-important-aspect-of-the-trauma symptom does not correlate with other symptoms. Loss or enhancement of the trauma memory affects PTSD symptoms in predictable ways. Special mechanisms that apply only to traumatic memories are not needed, increasing parsimony and the knowledge that can be applied to understanding PTSD.

The numerical simulation of fire spread within a compartment using an integrated gas and solid phase combustion model

An integrated fire spread model is presented in this study including several sub-models representing different phenomena of gaseous and solid combustion. The integrated model comprises of the following sub-models: a gaseous combustion model, a thermal radiation model that includes the effects of soot, and a pyrolysis model for charring combustible solids. The interaction of the gaseous and solid phases are linked together through the boundary conditions of the governing equations for the flow domain and the solid region respectively. The integrated model is used to simulate a fire spread experiment conducted in a half-scale test compartment. Good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreement is achieved between the experiment and numerical predictions.

In vitro-in vivo correlations of self-emulsifying drug delivery systems combining the dynamic lipolysis model and neuro-fuzzy networks

The aim of the current study was to evaluate the potential of the dynamic lipolysis model to simulate the absorption of a poorly soluble model drug compound, probucol, from three lipid-based formulations and to predict the in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) using neuro-fuzzy networks. An oil solution and two self-micro and nano-emulsifying drug delivery systems were tested in the lipolysis model. The release of probucol to the aqueous (micellar) phase was monitored during the progress of lipolysis. These release profiles compared with plasma profiles obtained in a previous bioavailability study conducted in mini-pigs at the same conditions. The release rate and extent of release from the oil formulation were found to be significantly lower than from SMEDDS and SNEDDS. The rank order of probucol released (SMEDDS approximately SNEDDS > oil formulation) was similar to the rank order of bioavailability from the in vivo study. The employed neuro-fuzzy model (AFM-IVIVC) achieved significantly high prediction ability for different data formations (correlation greater than 0.91 and prediction error close to zero), without employing complex configurations. These preliminary results suggest that the dynamic lipolysis model combined with the AFM-IVIVC can be a useful tool in the prediction of the in vivo behavior of lipid-based formulations.

The eLIDA CAMEL nomadic model of collaborative partnership for a community of practice in design for learning

A nomadic collaborative partnership model for a community of practice (CoP) in Design for Learning (D4L) can facilitate successful innovation and continuing appraisals of effective professional practice, stimulated by a 'critical friend' assigned to the project. This paper reports on e-learning case studies collected by the JISC-funded UK eLIDA CAMEL Design for Learning Project. The project implemented and evaluated learning design (LD) tools in higher and further education within the JISC Design for Learning pedagogic programme (2006-07). Project partners trialled professional user evaluations of innovative e-learning tools with learning design function, collecting D4L case studies and LD sequences in post-16/HE contexts using LAMS and Moodle. The project brought together learning activity sequences within a collaborative e-learning community of practice based on the CAMEL (Collaborative Approaches to the Management of e-Learning) model, contributing to international D4L developments. This paper provides an overview of project outputs in e-learning innovations, including evaluations from teachers and students. The paper explores intentionality in the development of a CoP in design for learning, reporting on trials of LD and social software that bridged tensions between formalised intra-institutional e-learning relationships and inter-institutional professional project team dynamic D4L practitioner interactions. Following a brief report of D4L case studies and feedback, the catalytic role of the 'critical friend' is highlighted and recommended as a key ingredient in the successful development of a nomadic model of communities of practice for managing professional e-learning projects. eLIDA CAMEL Partners included the Association of Learning Technology (ALT), JISC infoNet, three universities and five FE/Sixth Form Colleges. Results reported to JISC demonstrated D4L e-learning innovations by practitioners, illuminated by the role of the 'critical friend'. The project also benefited from formal case study evaluations and the leading work of ALT and JISC infoNet in the development of the CAMEL model.

An individual-based model of the early life history of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic, simulating transport, growth and mortality

The main purpose of this paper is to provide the core description of the modelling exercise within the Shelf Edge Advection Mortality And Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. An individual-based model (IBM) was developed for the prediction of year-to-year survival of the early life-history stages of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the eastern North Atlantic. The IBM is one of two components of the model system. The first component is a circulation model to provide physical input data for the IBM. The circulation model is a geographical variant of the HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The second component is the IBM, which is an i-space configuration model in which large numbers of individuals are followed as discrete entities to simulate the transport, growth and mortality of mackerel eggs, larvae and post-larvae. Larval and post-larval growth is modelled as a function of length, temperature and food distribution; mortality is modelled as a function of length and absolute growth rate. Each particle is considered as a super-individual representing 10 super(6) eggs at the outset of the simulation, and then declining according to the mortality function. Simulations were carried out for the years 1998-2000. Results showed concentrations of particles at Porcupine Bank and the adjacent Irish shelf, along the Celtic Sea shelf-edge, and in the southern Bay of Biscay. High survival was observed only at Porcupine and the adjacent shelf areas, and, more patchily, around the coastal margin of Biscay. The low survival along the shelf-edge of the Celtic Sea was due to the consistently low estimates of food availability in that area.