Estimating policy positions from political texts

The analysis of policy-based party;;competition will not make serious progress beyond the constraints of (a) the unitary actor assumption and (b) a static approach to analyzing party competition between elections until a method is available for deriving; reliable and valid time-series estimates of the policy positions of large numbers of political actors. Retrospective estimation of these positions;In past party systems will require a method for estimating policy positions from political texts.

Previous hand-coding content analysis schemes deal with policy emphasis rather than policy positions. We propose a new hand-coding scheme for policy positions, together with a new English language computer,coding scheme that is compatible with this. We apply both schemes; to party manifestos from Britain and Ireland in 1992 and 1997 and cross validate the resulting estimates with :those derived from quite independent expert surveys and with previous,manifesto analyses.

There is a high degree of cross validation between coding methods. including computer coding. This implies that it is indeed possible to use computer-coded content analysis to derive reliable and valid estimates of policy positions from political texts. This will allow vast Volumes of text to be coded, including texts generated by individuals and other internal party actors, allowing the empirical elaboration of dynamic rather than static models of party competition that move beyond the unitary actor assumption.

Interlaboratory studies on in vitro test methods for estimating in vivo resorption of calcium phosphate ceramics

A potential standard method for measuring the relative dissolution rate to estimate the resorbability of calcium-phosphate-based ceramics is proposed. Tricalcium phosphate (TCP), magnesium-substituted TCP (MgTCP) and zinc-substituted TCP (ZnTCP) were dissolved in a buffer solution free of calcium and phosphate ions at pH 4.0, 5.5 or 7.3 at nine research centers. Relative values of the initial dissolution rate (relative dissolution rates) were in good agreement among the centers. The relative dissolution rate coincided with the relative volume of resorption pits of ZnTCP in vitro. The relative dissolution rate coincided with the relative resorbed volume in vivo in the case of comparison between microporous MgTCPs with different Mg contents and similar porosity. However, the relative dissolution rate was in poor agreement with the relative resorbed volume in vivo in the case of comparison between microporous TCP and MgTCP due to the superimposition of the Mg-mediated decrease in TCP solubility on the Mg-mediated increase in the amount of resorption. An unambiguous conclusion could not be made as to whether the relative dissolution rate is predictive of the relative resorbed volume in vivo in the case of comparison between TCPs with different porosity. The relative dissolution rate may be useful for predicting the relative amount of resorption for calcium-phosphate-based ceramics having different solubility under the condition that the differences in the materials compared have little impact on the resorption process such as the number and activity of resorbing cells.

On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

Estimating biomass, fishing mortality, and "total allowable discards" for surveyed non-target fish

Demersal fisheries targeting a few high-value species often catch and discard other "non-target" species. It is difficult to quantify the impact of this incidental mortality when population biomass of a non-target species is unknown. We calculate biomass for 14 demersal fish species in ICES Area VIIg (Celtic Sea) by applying species-and length-based catchability corrections to catch records from the Irish Groundfish Survey (IGFS). We then combine these biomass estimates with records of commercial discards (and landings for marketable non-target species) to calculate annual harvesting rates (HR) for each study species. Uncertainty is incorporated into estimates of both biomass andHR. Our survey-based HR estimates for cod and whiting compared well with HR-converted fishing mortality (F) estimates from analytical assessments for these two stocks. Of the non-target species tested, red gurnard (Chelidonichthys cuculus) recorded some annual HRs greater than those for cod or whiting; challenging "Pope's postulate" that F on non-target stocks in an assemblage will not exceed that on target stocks. We relate HR for each species to two corresponding maximum sustainable yield (MSY) reference levels; six non-target species (including three ray species) show annual HRs >= HRMSY. This result suggests that it may not be possible to conserve vulnerable non-target species when F is coupled to that of target species. Based on biomass, HR, and HRMSY, we estimate "total allowable catch" for each non-target species.

Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the Exchangeability Method.

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether incentive compatibility affects subjective probabilities elicited via the exchangeability method (EM), an elicitation technique consisting of several chained questions. We hypothesize that subjects who are aware of the chaining strategically behave and provide invalid subjective probabilities, while subjects who are not aware of the chaining state their real beliefs and provide valid subjective probabilities. The validity of subjective probabilities is investigated using de Finetti's notion of coherence, under which probability estimates are valid if and only if they obey all axioms of probability theory.
Four experimental treatments are designed and implemented. Subjects are divided into two initial treatment groups: in the first, they are provided with real monetary incentives, and in the second, they are not. Each group is further sub-divided into two treatment groups, in the first, the chained structure of the experimental design is made clear to the subjects, while, in the second, the chained structure is hidden by randomizing the elicitation questions.
Our results suggest that subjects provided with monetary incentives and randomized questions provide valid subjective probabilities because they are not aware of the chaining which undermines the incentive compatibility of the exchangeability method.

Methodological variations in estimating apparent progressive visual field loss in clinical trials of glaucoma treatment.

OBJECTIVES:

To compare methods to estimate the incidence of visual field progression used by 3 large randomized trials of glaucoma treatment by applying these methods to a common data set of annually obtained visual field measurements of patients with glaucoma followed up for an average of 6 years.

METHODS:

The methods used by the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS), the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS), and the Early Manifest Glaucoma Treatment study (EMGT) were applied to 67 eyes of 56 patients with glaucoma enrolled in a 10-year natural history study of glaucoma using Program 30-2 of the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Humphrey Instruments, San Leandro, Calif). The incidence of apparent visual field progression was estimated for each method. Extent of agreement between the methods was calculated, and time to apparent progression was compared.

RESULTS:

The proportion of patients progressing was 11%, 22%, and 23% with AGIS, CIGTS, and EMGT methods, respectively. Clinical assessment identified 23% of patients who progressed, but only half of these were also identified by CIGTS or EMGT methods. The CIGTS and the EMGT had comparable incidence rates, but only half of those identified by 1 method were also identified by the other.

CONCLUSIONS:

The EMGT and CIGTS methods produced rates of apparent progression that were twice those of the AGIS method. Although EMGT, CIGTS, and clinical assessment rates were comparable, they did not identify the same patients as having had field progression.

Estimating sedimentation rate on Poilão Dam (Santiago Island, Cape Verde)

A Ilha de Santiago, situada no Arquipélago de Cabo Verde, é dominada por um clima seco e árido, interrompido por curtos períodos de chuvas torrenciais, com grande capacidade de transporte de sedimentos ao longo de vales profundos e encaixados, tributários da Ribeira Seca, onde se situa a Barragem do Poilão, construída em 2006. Os resultados de um levantamento batimétrico da albufeira da barragem realizado em Março de 2013, apontam para uma taxa de sedimentação anual próxima de 90 000 m3 /ano, fazendo com que, em apenas 7, anos a capacidade de armazenamento da albufeira tenha diminuído quase para metade. Os valores determinados neste estudo recomendam a tomada de medidas urgentes por parte do governo de Cabo Verde, no sentido da dragagem e desassoreamento da albufeira do Poilão.

Revenue diversification in higher education: the case of Portugal

Socio-economic changes, alterations in societal expectations and new public policies have put pressures on higher education public funding, bringing the issue of funding diversification to the forefront. Income diversification, namely, generation of funds from private, as well as from competitive public sources, has become increasingly important in European higher education due to a complex financial environment and perceived deficit of innovation transfer. Although there are numerous studies about changes in national funding systems and allocation mechanisms, few have focused on diversification of funding sources, especially in the European context, making Portugal no exception. Thus, this study aims at exploring income diversification at the institutional level and its influence on the internal organisational structures. For this purpose two Portuguese public universities were chosen as case studies. The empirical material was collected through semi-structured interviews with top management and middle management of each university and through documentary analysis. Data analysis demonstrated that both universities are in the process of institutionalizing and formalising practices of income diversification, notably by getting more professional in how they are dealing with external stakeholders, such as businesses, local community, and students. However, the study also revealed that there is no formal, organised strategy to deal with income diversification. In general, the universities are reacting to external demands rather than pro-actively exploring opportunities. In this respect, the analysis determined several factors that promote or inhibit income diversification activities. Quality and favourable organizational culture were named by the interviewees as the most relevant factors for successful income diversification. External factors such as legal arrangements and funding conditions were cited as major constraints. This research has also revealed that revenue diversification activities tend to develop along the continuum towards higher sophistication and systematisation of activities that are supported by a powerful infrastructure. Together with efforts at the institutional level, the role of government policies proves to be crucial in providing tools and incentives to higher education institutions and creating a harmonious higher education system.

Estimating fuzzy membership functions parameters by the levenberg-marquardt algorithm

In previous papers from the authors fuzzy model identification methods were discussed. The bacterial algorithm for extracting fuzzy rule base from a training set was presented. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was also proposed for determining membership functions in fuzzy systems. In this paper the Levenberg-Marquardt technique is improved to optimise the membership functions in the fuzzy rules without Ruspini-partition. The class of membership functions investigated is the trapezoidal one as it is general enough and widely used. The method can be easily extended to arbitrary piecewise linear functions as well.