Estrutura a termo de taxas de juros : determinantes macroeconômicos : aplicação do modelo de Svensson para o Brasil

Este trabalho visa sistematizar um modelo para previsão e explicação dos movimentos de curto prazo da estrutura a termo de taxas de juros pré-fixada em reais do Brasil, baseado na relação dos movimentos em questão com os níveis e alterações que se processam nas variáveis macroeconômicas relevantes. A metodologia usada foi dividir o procedimento em duas etapas: Na primeira etapa, o modelo de Svensson (1994) é usado para ajustar a Estrutura a Termo de Taxas de Juros de cada data específica para obter os parâmetros daquela data. Isso é conseguido através da maximização da estatística R2 na regressão de mínimos quadrados, como sugerido no artigo original de Nelson e Siegel (1987). Então, as medianas dos dois parâmetros de decaimento utilizados são calculadas e mantidas arbitrariamente constantes para facilitar os cálculos da segunda etapa. Na segunda etapa, uma vez que os estimadores que melhor se ajustam às curvas de juros foram obtidos, outra regressão de MQO é realizada considerando os betas de Svensson dependentes de variáveis macroeconômicas de estado.

Inference in differences-in-differences with few treated groups and heteroskedasticity

Differences-in-Differences (DID) is one of the most widely used identification strategies in applied economics. However, how to draw inferences in DID models when there are few treated groups remains an open question. We show that the usual inference methods used in DID models might not perform well when there are few treated groups and errors are heteroskedastic. In particular, we show that when there is variation in the number of observations per group, inference methods designed to work when there are few treated groups tend to (under-) over-reject the null hypothesis when the treated groups are (large) small relative to the control groups. This happens because larger groups tend to have lower variance, generating heteroskedasticity in the group x time aggregate DID model. We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations and from placebo DID regressions with the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) datasets to show that this problem is relevant even in datasets with large numbers of observations per group. We then derive an alternative inference method that provides accurate hypothesis testing in situations where there are few treated groups (or even just one) and many control groups in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our method assumes that we can model the heteroskedasticity of a linear combination of the errors. We show that this assumption can be satisfied without imposing strong assumptions on the errors in common DID applications. With many pre-treatment periods, we show that this assumption can be relaxed. Instead, we provide an alternative inference method that relies on strict stationarity and ergodicity of the time series. Finally, we consider two recent alternatives to DID when there are many pre-treatment periods. We extend our inference methods to linear factor models when there are few treated groups. We also derive conditions under which a permutation test for the synthetic control estimator proposed by Abadie et al. (2010) is robust to heteroskedasticity and propose a modification on the test statistic that provided a better heteroskedasticity correction in our simulations.

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.

Theoretical and empirical essays on microeconometrics

This Master Thesis consists of one theoretical article and one empirical article on the field of Microeconometrics. The first chapter\footnote{We also thank useful suggestions by Marinho Bertanha, Gabriel Cepaluni, Brigham Frandsen, Dalia Ghanem, Ricardo Masini, Marcela Mello, Áureo de Paula, Cristine Pinto, Edson Severnini and seminar participants at São Paulo School of Economics, the California Econometrics Conference 2015 and the 37\textsuperscript{th} Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics.}, called \emph{Synthetic Control Estimator: A Generalized Inference Procedure and Confidence Sets}, contributes to the literature about inference techniques of the Synthetic Control Method. This methodology was proposed to answer questions involving counterfactuals when only one treated unit and a few control units are observed. Although this method was applied in many empirical works, the formal theory behind its inference procedure is still an open question. In order to fulfill this lacuna, we make clear the sufficient hypotheses that guarantee the adequacy of Fisher's Exact Hypothesis Testing Procedure for panel data, allowing us to test any \emph{sharp null hypothesis} and, consequently, to propose a new way to estimate Confidence Sets for the Synthetic Control Estimator by inverting a test statistic, the first confidence set when we have access only to finite sample, aggregate level data whose cross-sectional dimension may be larger than its time dimension. Moreover, we analyze the size and the power of the proposed test with a Monte Carlo experiment and find that test statistics that use the synthetic control method outperforms test statistics commonly used in the evaluation literature. We also extend our framework for the cases when we observe more than one outcome of interest (simultaneous hypothesis testing) or more than one treated unit (pooled intervention effect) and when heteroskedasticity is present. The second chapter, called \emph{Free Economic Area of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method}, is an empirical article. We apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20\textsuperscript{th} Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Economic Area of Manaus (FEAM). We find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on Real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. Our results suggest that this subsidy policy achieve its goal of promoting regional economic growth, even though it may have provoked mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors.

A critical value function approach, with an application to persistent time-series

Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an approximately similar test. This test rejects the null hypothesis when the test statistic islarger than a critical value function (CVF) of the data. We illustrate this procedure when regressors are highly persistent, a case in which commonly-used simulation methods encounter dificulties controlling size uniformly. Our approach works satisfactorily, controls size, and yields a test which outperforms the two other known similar tests.

Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil

BORGES,D. M. L.et al. Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil.Cad. Saúde Pública, Rio de Janeiro, v.25,n.2, p.321-327, fev, 2009

Eficiência, gestão e meio ambiente na carcinicultura do Rio Grande do Norte

SILVA, J. L. M. da; SAMPAIO, L. M. . Eficiência, Gestão e Meio Ambiente na Carcinicultura do Rio Grande do Norte. In: Congresso da Sociendade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural - SOBER, 40., 2007, Londrina. Conhecimentos para a Agricultura do Futuro, 2007.

Diagnóstico de enfermagem risco de quedas em pacientes com angina instável

O risco de quedas pode ser reconhecido como fenômeno ou diagnóstico de enfermagem. Pesquisas relacionam diretamente isquemias miocárdicas, como a angina instável e o risco de cair. Objetivou-se analisar o diagnóstico de enfermagem Risco de quedas na ocorrência de angina instável por um estudo transversal realizado em 57 indivíduos internados em um hospitalescola, mediante exame físico e formulário. Para o tratamento estatístico foram utilizados teste qui-quadrado, teste exato de Fisher, Mann-Whitney, teste-t e Coefi ciente Phi (p<0,05). O Risco de quedas foi o diagnóstico de enfermagem mais prevalente (87,71%), sobretudo em homens, mais velhos, com menos anos de estudo e renda inferior. Presença da angina instável, hipertensão arterial, medicação anti-hipertensiva, doença vascular, difi culdades visuais e insônia apresentaram associação com o diagnóstico de enfermagem Risco de quedas. Conclui-se que é imprescindível o desenvolvimento de parâmetros claros e objetivos à mensuração mais acurada do risco de quedas no âmbito hospitalar

Do talão de nota fiscal ao cupom fiscal: a implantação do ECF no estado do Rio Grande do Norte e sua repercussão na arrecadação do ICMS

The present paper has aimed the analysis of a real instrument which offers great impact in the ICMS revenue: The Fiscal Voucher Emitting Equipment (ECF). In this sense, the effects of the commercial automation process in Rio Grande do Norte s ICMS revenue between 2000 and 2006 were investigated. Based on this goal, the methodology adopted was characterized as a study of quantitative, exploratory-qualitative nature, through the collecting of secondary data, provided by the State Taxation Bureau (SET). In the absence of a statistic model in the existing literature about the approached theme, we decided for the elaboration of a suitable model, with tables and graphics. As a way to observe the effects of these programs on the revenue, the comparison between the ECF users and non users, in the same period, has proved to be of great importance. We reached the conclusion that even though the growth rates amongst the activities that use the ECF had ascended in tributary revenue in the related years, from 2004 on, with the introduction of TEF, this participation presented a higher growth, which leads us to suppose that the use of this recent instrument provides a significant impact in the State effective revenue. We stand out that the collected amounts could have been even higher, if the level of adhesion to the instrument had not been so low, mainly amongst the minor entrepreneurs, which may mean a rooted defraudation in the system. In short, through the set of data obtained, it is possible to conclude that the ECF and the recent TEF have significantly influenced the ICMS revenue in the entire State all over the period that was analyzed

Qualidade de vida no trabalho: o caso de enfermeiros dos Hospitais Públicos Walfredo Gurgel e Santa Catarina

The theoretical foundation of this study addresses the construct Quality of Worklife involving pro-active reading organizations in face to social developments of the working class, which is a challenge to the people s management. In this sense, as a contribution to the studies of quality of worklife (QOWL), this study addresses the quality of lifework of nurses at Walfredo Gurgel and Santa Catarina public hospitals. The goal is to make a diagnosis about the quality of lifework of these employees taking as a basis dimensions and performance indicators shown in the model by Fernandes (1996). The research is characterized by field, in a descriptive way. This survey comprised 75 nurses, with 49 by Walfredo Gurgel hospital and 26 by Santa Catarina one. The data collection was carried out through structured questionnaire. The questions were processed in the software Statistic 6.0, with factor analysis and multiple regressions, after the systematization of data. As a result, the most nurses in hospitals are dissatisfied with the quality of lifework, with the highest incidence in Santa Catarina hospital. The variable occupational health assessment was more negative in the hospital Santa Catarina one, whereas in Walfredo Gurgel, was family assistance. The variable guarantee of employment was more positive assessment in two hospitals without, though, implying in high importance on QOWL of nurses. The factor structure and decision showed greater sensitivity to explain the QOWL of nurses, joining 17 variables from 40 of the model. The factor working conditions, joining 6 variables, showed the second highest sensitivity. The compensation factor, gathering 5 variables, showed the third highest sensitivity while image and health factors showed minor importance

Síndrome de burnout e autoeficácia: um estudo com profissionais de enfermagem de hospitais privados de Natal/rn

This research verifies the influence of the self-efficacy level on burnout syndrome incidence in relation to nursing professionals from private hospitals located in the Municipality of Natal, State of Rio Grande do Norte. The nature of the research was descriptive, and the used data analysis method was quantitative which was developed through SPSS computational package, version 17.0. The used instrument for the investigation was Maslach-Burnout Inventory (MBI), and the General Perceived Self-efficacy Scale (GPSES) was applied to a sample formed from 230 nursing professionals. The statistic techniques to data analysis were: frequency analysis; factor analysis; Cronbach.s alpha; Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test (KMO); Bartlett efericity test; percentual analysis; Spearman rank correlation analysis; and simple regression. The achieved factors from factor analysis of MBI were the same, taking into account the dimensions which Maslach initially suggested to the instrument (emotional exhaustion, lack of personal realization, and depersonalization). However, one highlights that the low internal consistence of the depersonalization dimension can occur from people.s difficulty (caused by cultural aspects) of assuming this attitude in their work environment. Through GSE, it was achieved a factor which confirmed the unidimensionality showed by the author of the instrument. In relation to the syndrome incidence, it was verified that about 50% of the researched sample presented burnout syndrome evidence. Referring to self-efficacy level, about 65% of the researched sample presented low level of self-efficacy, what can be explained by the work characteristics of these professionals. In relation to the self-efficacy influence on the Burnout syndrome, it was verified that self-efficacy can be one of the aspects which influences occupational stress chronification (burnout), mainly to the personal realization dimension. Therefore, the researched hospital organizations need reflect about their attitudes in respect to their professionals, since the numbers showed a dangerous tendency regarding a predisposition to burnout syndrome of their staff, what implies not only a significant amount of individuals who can present high levels of emotional exhaustion, lack of personal realization, and depersonalization, but also the fact that this group presents low level of self-efficacy

Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

Condições de trabalho e saúde na perspectiva de bem-estar um estudo realizado entre os profissionais de saúde da policlínica

This study had like general objective analyzed the relation observed between working conditions and healthy, in the welfare perspective, by the Policilínica Zona Oeste´s healthy professionals. Were used like theoretical bases the categories of working conditions of Borges et al. (2013): working conditions and contractual legal; physical working conditions and materials; working conditions and characteristics of the work processes and working conditions and social management. For the analise of personal wellness in the job, were used the categories of Dessen and Paz (2010): friendship relations, relationship with the organization, growth opportunity, relations with customers , valuation and realization. For this, this research use the descriptive statistic and Bardin (1977) ´s content analysis besides the help of Manyeyes software, using the word clouds and trees words. Was possible identify that the working conditions have strong relations with the health of the health professionals of Policlínica, mainly about the physical and materials conditions that are precarious and influences the other dimensions of working conditions and conditions health. The welfare professionals is spoiled in the dimensions of realization and growth opportunity and influences the professional´s health

Motivação e satisfação à luz do modelo ASH: estudo de caso em indústria de alimentos

Neste estudo, foram examinadas as relações existentes entre a motivação e a satisfação do trabalhador no espaço laboral. O estudo empírico foi conduzido em uma única etapa, por meio da qual buscou-se conhecer as dimensões latentes identificadas e, a partir das dimensões validadas, buscou-se estabelecer relações com características motivacionais, como antecedentes, e satisfação pelo trabalho realizado, como conseqüência do atendimento das necessidades manifestadas pelo trabalhador. Foram entrevistados 38 (trinta e oito) funcionários da empresa Água Mineral Cristalina, incluindo-se os que ocupam cargos de chefia. Como instrumento de coleta de dados, foi utilizada parte do complexo da Auditoria do Sistema Humano ASH, criado por Quijano (1999), que se trata de um modelo de pesquisa na área de Psicologia Social, incluindo a Administração de Recursos Humanos, que analisa os processos psicológicos e psicossociais nas organizações. Para esta pesquisa, foram utilizados dois formulários sugeridos pelo autor citado, (anexos 01 e 02). O primeiro denomina-se condições para a motivação , com 15 (quinze) questões do tipo likert. O segundo, "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades", tem 22 (vinte e duas) questões, também do tipo likert. O instrumento foi respondido por colaboradores, independente da posição hierárquica, em aproximadamente 10 (dez) a 15 (quinze) minutos. A aplicação foi realizada diretamente pelo pesquisador nas unidades de produção e de administração da empresa. Por meio de modelagem de equações estruturais, foi estabelecido um modelo de relações causais entre as dimensões latentes relacionadas à motivação e o desempenho do empregado quando tem satisfeitas as suas necessidades. Quanto ao tratamento dos dados, este ocorreu de forma quantitativa. Quanto à análise, aconteceu após os dados terem sido tratados. Nesta pesquisa, os dados foram analisados por meio de estatísticas descritivas, atualizando-se os recursos de softwares específicos como Statistic ou SPSS Statistic Package for Social Sciences. Usou-se a técnica de Análise de Regressão, na qual foi utilizado o método STEPWISE que inclui na equação de explicação de uma variável dependente somente aquelas que auxiliam ou incrementam sua explicação. Como variáveis dependentes, foram utilizadas as variáveis do formulário "trabalho bem feito e satisfação de necessidades" e como variável independe as variáveis do questionário "condições para motivação". Sob o ponto de vista prático, este estudo mostrou que um determinado conjunto de características motivacionais influi positivamente na satisfação do trabalhador, que poderá realizar um trabalho bem feito; do lado teórico, a pesquisa verificou explicitamente a hipótese de que os aspectos motivacionais contribuem para que o empregado, sentindo-se satisfeito, desempenhe melhor as atribuições que lhe são conferidas

Caracterização da captura incidental de tartarugas marinhas pela pesca de espinhel pelágico no Nordeste do Brasil

The marine turtles biological characteristics and the impact they have been suffering in consequence of human activities have caused in the last decades the decrease of populations to unsustainable levels. All four of the species described in this paper are registered as endangered in a list by IUCN: Caretta caretta, Lepidochelys olivacea, Chelonia mydas, Dermochelys coriacea. The main causes of such impact include several fishing activities, mostly the surface longline. This paper discusses the monitoring of two foreigner longline fleet along the North East Brazilian coast between October of 2004 and September of 2005. Both operated in the West South Atlantic, one using the Chinese technique and the other the American. The American method s target species is the swordfish (Xiphias gladius), and it is characterized by using squid as bait, J 9/0 offset 5º hook, light sticks and night soaking. It also operates in shallower waters than the Chinese method. The source of information about the efforts and the catches came from onboard observers and were used to calculate the catching rate of turtles over 1000 hooks (CPUE). The American equipment caught more turtles (CPUE = 0,059; N= 103), mainly D. coriacea, while the Chinese longline caught mainly the L. olivacea and presented a CPUE= 0,018 (N= 89). The hooks were most frequently found attached to the mouth of C. caretta, C. mydas, and L. olivacea. The D. coriacea were most frequently caught by hooks externally attached to different parts of their body. There was no significant difference between the hook type catching and most turtles were still alive when released. The results suggest a greater potential of turtle catching by the American method. Besides the statistic tests have showed less interaction between the Chinese equipment and marine turtles, the catches of this fishing technique could have been underestimated due to miscommunication between the onboard observer and the vessel s crew plus the retrieve of the longline during night time