Leverage and beliefs: Personal experience and risk taking in margin lending

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Thispaper uses unique micro-data on collateralized lending contracts during a period of financialdistress to address this question. An investor syndicate speculating in English stocks wentbankrupt in 1772. Using hand-collected information from Dutch notarial archives, we examinechanges in lenders' behavior following exposure to potential (but not actual) losses. Before thedistress episode, financiers that lent to the ill-fated syndicate were indistinguishable from therest. Afterwards, they behaved differently: they lent with much higher haircuts. Only lendersexposed to the failed syndicate altered their behavior. The differential change is remarkable sincethe distress was public knowledge, and because none of the lenders suffered actual losses ? allfinanciers were repaid in full. Interest rates were also unaffected; the market balanced solelythrough changes in collateral requirements. Our findings are consistent with a heterogeneousbeliefs-interpretation of leverage. They also suggest that individual experience can modify thelevel of leverage in a market quickly.

Between manualized treatments and principle-guided psychotherapy: illustration in the case of Caroline

My case study of "Caroline"-a 26 year old presenting with depression, PTSD symptoms, and a history of sexual abuse as a teenager-represents a "third way" between (1) a strict adherence to a manualized treatment, and (2) a principle-guided therapy, in which the therapy follows particular theoretical concepts, but depends on the therapist's clinical judgement to flexibly apply them to the individual case. Specifically, in my therapy with Caroline (Kramer, 2009), I employed Foa and Rothbaum's (1998) cognitive-behavioral, "Prolonged Exposure" (PE) manual for PTSD, but deviated from it in certain ways based upon my evaluation of Caroline's individualized goals and reactions using Grawe and Caspar's "Plan Analysis," which is a cross-theoretical model for assessment and treatment planning. In their commentaries on my case study of Caroline, Caspar (2009) and Haldimann-Balli (see Appendix in Kramer, 2009) support my use of this third way. On the other hand, the other commentators-Muller (2009) and Hembree and Brinen (2009)-critique my handling of the case, arguing that strict adherence to the Foa and Rothbaum manual would have resulted in a more cost-effective therapy. In this article, I respond to the important issues raised by the four commentators.

Iowa Strategy for Homeland Security and Emergency Management 2015-2017, October 1, 2014

Address sustainability in all efforts. Sustainability should be at the core of all levels of homeland security and emergency management effort in Iowa. Capabilities need to be built for the long term, and without a sustainability plan in place, projects can quickly deplete uncertain levels of funding. Utilize an all-hazards methodology. Developing capabilities that are effective during a variety of disaster and emergency scenarios represents sound planning and resource management. Enhance capabilities through joint planning, training and exercise. Effective capabilities developed through coordinated planning efforts and an ongoing joint training and exercising program to ensure substantiate of prepared response. Utilize a collaborative approach to build capability. We will utilize whatever partnerships are necessary to build capability in the most effective manner possible. Regional partnerships have been, and will continue to be, in the forefront of the State of Iowa’s efforts to build and enhance capability. Enhance statewide capabilities. Whenever possible, we will identify and augment existing resources to provide statewide capability during a disaster or terrorist attack. Awareness, outreach and education. Open communication is critical to the success of any initiative. All projects implemented will have awareness, education and outreach components to ensure that all stakeholders are informed as to their responsibilities, capabilities and access. Information sharing and a common operating picture. The timely exchange of critical/actionable information is imperative to the success of every operation. The identification of a common operating picture allows decision makers to make informed decisions based on a unified understanding of the events around them.

The promotion and assessment of generic skills from interdisciplinary teaching teams

The paper explains a teaching project financed by the University of Barcelona (UB). It focuses on ageneric skill of the University of Barcelona, which is defined as "the learning capability andresponsibility”, and in which analytical and synthesis skills are included. It follows a multidisciplinaryapproach including teachers of Mathematics, World Economics and Economic History. All of us sharethe same students during the first and the second course of the grade in Economics at the Faculty ofEconomics and Business. The project has been developed in three stages. The first one has beendone during the first semester of the course 2012/13, being applied to first year students on thesubjects of Mathematics and Economic History. The second phase is being to be done during thesecond semester only on the Economic History subject. A third stage is going to be done next course2013/14 to second year students on the subject of World Economics. Each different teaching teamhas developed specific materials and assessment tools for each one of the subjects included in theproject. The project emphasizes two teaching dimensions: the elaboration of teaching materials topromote the acquisition of generic skills from an interdisciplinary point of view, and the design ofspecific tools to assess such skills. The first results of the first phase of the project shows cleardeficiencies in the analytical skill regarding to first year students.

The promotion and assessment of generic skills from interdisciplinary teaching teams

The paper explains a teaching project financed by the University of Barcelona (UB). It focuses on ageneric skill of the University of Barcelona, which is defined as "the learning capability andresponsibility”, and in which analytical and synthesis skills are included. It follows a multidisciplinaryapproach including teachers of Mathematics, World Economics and Economic History. All of us sharethe same students during the first and the second course of the grade in Economics at the Faculty ofEconomics and Business. The project has been developed in three stages. The first one has beendone during the first semester of the course 2012/13, being applied to first year students on thesubjects of Mathematics and Economic History. The second phase is being to be done during thesecond semester only on the Economic History subject. A third stage is going to be done next course2013/14 to second year students on the subject of World Economics. Each different teaching teamhas developed specific materials and assessment tools for each one of the subjects included in theproject. The project emphasizes two teaching dimensions: the elaboration of teaching materials topromote the acquisition of generic skills from an interdisciplinary point of view, and the design ofspecific tools to assess such skills. The first results of the first phase of the project shows cleardeficiencies in the analytical skill regarding to first year students.

The promotion and assessment of generic skills from interdisciplinary teaching teams

The paper explains a teaching project financed by the University of Barcelona (UB). It focuses on ageneric skill of the University of Barcelona, which is defined as "the learning capability andresponsibility”, and in which analytical and synthesis skills are included. It follows a multidisciplinaryapproach including teachers of Mathematics, World Economics and Economic History. All of us sharethe same students during the first and the second course of the grade in Economics at the Faculty ofEconomics and Business. The project has been developed in three stages. The first one has beendone during the first semester of the course 2012/13, being applied to first year students on thesubjects of Mathematics and Economic History. The second phase is being to be done during thesecond semester only on the Economic History subject. A third stage is going to be done next course2013/14 to second year students on the subject of World Economics. Each different teaching teamhas developed specific materials and assessment tools for each one of the subjects included in theproject. The project emphasizes two teaching dimensions: the elaboration of teaching materials topromote the acquisition of generic skills from an interdisciplinary point of view, and the design ofspecific tools to assess such skills. The first results of the first phase of the project shows cleardeficiencies in the analytical skill regarding to first year students.

Neural plasticity associated with recently versus often heard objects.

In natural settings the same sound source is often heard repeatedly, with variations in spectro-temporal and spatial characteristics. We investigated how such repetitions influence sound representations and in particular how auditory cortices keep track of recently vs. often heard objects. A set of 40 environmental sounds was presented twice, i.e. as prime and as repeat, while subjects categorized the corresponding sound sources as living vs. non-living. Electrical neuroimaging analyses were applied to auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) comparing primes vs. repeats (effect of presentation) and the four experimental sections. Dynamic analysis of distributed source estimations revealed i) a significant main effect of presentation within the left temporal convexity at 164-215ms post-stimulus onset; and ii) a significant main effect of section in the right temporo-parietal junction at 166-213ms. A 3-way repeated measures ANOVA (hemisphere×presentation×section) applied to neural activity of the above clusters during the common time window confirmed the specificity of the left hemisphere for the effect of presentation, but not that of the right hemisphere for the effect of section. In conclusion, spatio-temporal dynamics of neural activity encode the temporal history of exposure to sound objects. Rapidly occurring plastic changes within the semantic representations of the left hemisphere keep track of objects heard a few seconds before, independent of the more general sound exposure history. Progressively occurring and more long-lasting plastic changes occurring predominantly within right hemispheric networks, which are known to code for perceptual, semantic and spatial aspects of sound objects, keep track of multiple exposures.

Temporal dynamics of auditory what and where processing in humans

Recent evidence suggests the human auditory system is organized,like the visual system, into a ventral 'what' pathway, devoted toidentifying objects and a dorsal 'where' pathway devoted to thelocalization of objects in space w1x. Several brain regions have beenidentified in these two different pathways, but until now little isknown about the temporal dynamics of these regions. We investigatedthis issue using 128-channel auditory evoked potentials(AEPs).Stimuli were stationary sounds created by varying interaural timedifferences and environmental real recorded sounds. Stimuli ofeach condition (localization, recognition) were presented throughearphones in a blocked design, while subjects determined theirposition or meaning, respectively.AEPs were analyzed in terms of their topographical scalp potentialdistributions (segmentation maps) and underlying neuronalgenerators (source estimation) w2x.Fourteen scalp potential distributions (maps) best explained theentire data set.Ten maps were nonspecific (associated with auditory stimulationin general), two were specific for sound localization and two werespecific for sound recognition (P-values ranging from 0.02 to0.045).Condition-specific maps appeared at two distinct time periods:;200 ms and ;375-550 ms post-stimulus.The brain sources associated with the maps specific for soundlocalization were mainly situated in the inferior frontal cortices,confirming previous findings w3x. The sources associated withsound recognition were predominantly located in the temporal cortices,with a weaker activation in the frontal cortex.The data show that sound localization and sound recognitionengage different brain networks that are apparent at two distincttime periods.References1. Maeder et al. Neuroimage 2001.2. Michel et al. Brain Research Review 2001.3. Ducommun et al. Neuroimage 2002.

Prevalence of hypertension in schoolchildren based on repeated measurements and association with overweight.

OBJECTIVE: Most studies assess the prevalence of hypertension in pediatric populations based on blood pressure (BP) readings taken on a single visit. We determined the prevalence of hypertension measured on up to three visits in a Swiss pediatric population and examined the association between hypertension and overweight and selected other factors. METHODS: Anthropometric data and BP were measured in all children of the sixth school grade of the Vaud canton (Switzerland) in 2005-2006. 'Elevated BP' was defined according to sex-specific, age-specific and height-specific US reference data. BP was measured on up to two additional visits in children with elevated BP. 'Hypertension' was defined as 'elevated BP' on all three visits. RESULTS: Out of 6873 children, 5207 (76%) participated [2621 boys, 2586 girls; mean (SD) age, 12.3 (0.5) years]. The prevalence of elevated BP was 11.4, 3.8 and 2.2% on first, second and thirds visits, respectively; hence 2.2% had hypertension. Among hypertensive children, 81% had isolated systolic hypertension. Hypertension was associated with excess body weight, elevated heart rate and parents' history of hypertension. Of the children, 16.1% of boys and 12.4% of girls were overweight or obese (CDC criteria, body mass index >or= 85th percentile). Thirty-seven percent of cases of hypertension could be attributed to overweight or obesity. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of children with elevated BP based on one visit was five times higher than based on three measurements taken at few-week intervals. Our data re-emphasize the need for prevention and control of overweight in children to curb the global hypertension burden.

Association of MMP-2 polymorphisms with severe and very severe COPD: a case control study of MMPs-1, 9 and 12 in a European population.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors play a role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but are poorly understood. A number of candidate genes have been proposed on the basis of the pathogenesis of COPD. These include the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) genes which play a role in tissue remodelling and fit in with the protease--antiprotease imbalance theory for the cause of COPD. Previous genetic studies of MMPs in COPD have had inadequate coverage of the genes, and have reported conflicting associations of both single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP haplotypes, plausibly due to under-powered studies. METHODS: To address these issues we genotyped 26 SNPs, providing comprehensive coverage of reported SNP variation, in MMPs- 1, 9 and 12 from 977 COPD patients and 876 non-diseased smokers of European descent and evaluated their association with disease singly and in haplotype combinations. We used logistic regression to adjust for age, gender, centre and smoking history. RESULTS: Haplotypes of two SNPs in MMP-12 (rs652438 and rs2276109), showed an association with severe/very severe disease, corresponding to GOLD Stages III and IV. CONCLUSIONS: Those with the common A-A haplotype for these two SNPs were at greater risk of developing severe/very severe disease (p = 0.0039) while possession of the minor G variants at either SNP locus had a protective effect (adjusted odds ratio of 0.76; 95% CI 0.61 - 0.94). The A-A haplotype was also associated with significantly lower predicted FEV1 (42.62% versus 44.79%; p = 0.0129). This implicates haplotypes of MMP-12 as modifiers of disease severity.

Mortality associated with diabetes mellitus in comparison with history of cardiovascular disease in older women.

Current treatment guidelines consider diabetes to be equivalent to existing cardiovascular disease (CVD), but few data exist about the relative importance of these risk factors for total and CVD mortality in older women.We studied 9704 women aged >= 65 years enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up of 13 years and compared all-cause and CVD mortality among non-diabetic women without and with history of CVD at baseline and diabetic women without and with history of CVD. Diabetes mellitus and CVD were defined as self-report of physician diagnoses. Cause of death was adjudicated from death certificates and medical records when available. Ascertainment of vital status was 99% complete. Multivariate Cox hazard models adjusted for age, smoking, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, waist girth and education were used to compare mortality among the four groups with non-diabetic women without CVD as the referent group. At baseline mean age was 71.7 } 5.3 years, 7.0% reported diabetes mellitus and 14.5% reported prior CVD. 4257 women died during follow-up, 36.6% were attributed to CVD. Compared to non-diabetic women without prior CVD, the risk of CVD mortality was elevated among both non-diabetic women with CVD (HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.07, P <0.001) and diabetic women without prior CVD (HR = 2.24, CI: 1.87-2.69, P <0.001). CVD mortality was highest among diabetic women with CVD (HR = 3.41, CI: 2.61-4.45, P <0.001). Compared to non-diabetic women with CVD, diabetic women without prior CVD had a significantly higher adjusted HR for total and CVD mortality (P < 0.001 and P <0.05 respectively). Older diabetic women without prior CVD have a higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality compared to nondiabetic women with pre-existing CVD. For older women, these data support the equivalence of prior CVD and diabetes mellitus in current guidelines for the prevention of CVD in primary care.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

Performance of parental history for the targeted screening of hypertension in children.

OBJECTIVES: Several guidelines recommend universal screening for hypertension in childhood and adolescence. Targeted screening to children with parental history of hypertension could be a more efficient strategy than universal screening. Therefore, we assessed the association between parental history of hypertension and hypertension in children, and estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative, and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension for hypertension in children. METHODS: The present study was a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10-14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over three separate visits. RESULTS: In children, the prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. Some 8.5% of mothers and 12.9% of fathers reported to be hypertensive. Maternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.3) and paternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.6) were independent risk factors for hypertension in children. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children was low (from 4% for both parents' positive history up to 41% for at least one parent's positive history). Positive predictive values were also low (between 4 and 5%). CONCLUSION: Children with hypertensive parents were at higher risk of hypertension. Nevertheless, parental history of hypertension helped only marginally to identify hypertension in offspring. Targeting screening only toward children with a parental history of hypertension may not be a substantially better strategy to identify hypertension in children compared with universal screening.

Gene flow and gene flux shape evolutionary patterns of variation in Drosophila subobscura

Gene flow (defined as allele exchange between populations) and gene flux (defined as allele exchange during meiosis in heterokaryotypic females) are important factors decreasing genetic differentiation between populations and inversions. Many chromosomal inversions are under strong selection and their role in recombination reduction enhances the maintenance of their genetic distinctness. Here we analyze levels and patterns of nucleotide diversity, selection and demographic history, using 37 individuals of Drosophila subobscura from Mount Parnes (Greece) and Barcelona (Spain). Our sampling focused on two frequent O-chromosome arrangements that differ by two overlapping inversions (OST and O3+4), which are differentially adapted to the environment as observed by their opposing latitudinal clines in inversion frequencies. The six analyzed genes (Pif1A, Abi, Sqd, Yrt, Atpa and Fmr1) were selected for their location across the O-chromosome and their implication in thermal adaptation. Despite the extensive gene flux detected outside the inverted region, significant genetic differentiation between both arrangements was found inside it. However, high levels of gene flow were detected for all six genes when comparing the same arrangement among populations. These results suggest that the adaptive value of inversions is maintained, regardless of the lack of genetic differentiation within arrangements from different populations, and thus favors the Local Adaptation hypothesis over the Coadapted Genome hypothesis as the basis of the selection acting on inversions in these populations.

Worldwide Population Structure, Long-Term Demography, and Local Adaptation of Helicobacter pylori.

Helicobacter pylori is an important human pathogen associated with serious gastric diseases. Owing to its medical importance and close relationship with its human host, understanding genomic patterns of global and local adaptation in H. pylori may be of particular significance for both clinical and evolutionary studies. Here we present the first such whole genome analysis of 60 globally distributed strains, from which we inferred worldwide population structure and demographic history and shed light on interesting global and local events of positive selection, with particular emphasis on the evolution of San-associated lineages. Our results indicate a more ancient origin for the association of humans and H. pylori than previously thought. We identify several important perspectives for future clinical research on candidate selected regions that include both previously characterized genes (e.g., transcription elongation factor NusA and tumor necrosis factor alpha-inducing protein Tipα) and hitherto unknown functional genes.