Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Une équipe mobile en psychiatrie de l'âge avancé [A crisis team in the field of old age psychiatry]

In the context of demographic evolution, psychiatric care needs increase steadily in most western countries. Given the financial limitations, it is mandatory to establish appropriate care priorities in order to avoid psychiatric hospitalisations by assisting care providers, general practionners and nurses, at home or in the nursing homes. A crisis team has been established 18 months ago within the Division of old age psychiatry in Lausanne. The care program included immediate assistance in the community, assessement, crisis counseling, medication consultation and referral for psychiatric services providing an alternative to hospitalization. The first results indicate that this intervention is well accepted by the users and correspond to a real need.

Socio-demographic and behavioural determinants of weight gain in the Swiss population.

BackgroundIn Switzerland, socio-demographic and behavioural factors are associated with obesity, but no study ever assessed their impact on weight gain using prospective data.MethodsData from 4,469 participants (53.0% women), aged 35 to 75 years at baseline and followed for 5.5 years. Weight gain was considered as a rate (kg/year) or as gaining ¿5 kg during the study period.ResultsRate of weight gain was lower among participants who were older (mean¿±¿standard deviation: 0.46¿±¿0.92, 0.33¿±¿0.88, 0.21¿±¿0.86 and 0.06¿±¿0.74 kg/year in participants aged [35-45[, [45-55[, [55¿65[and [65+ years, respectively, P<0.001); physically active (0.27¿±¿0.82 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.95 kg/year for sedentary, P¿<¿0.005) or living in a couple (0.29¿±¿0.84 vs. 0.35¿±¿0.96 kg/year for living single, P¿<¿0.05), and higher among current smokers (0.41¿±¿0.97, 0.26¿±¿0.84 and 0.29±0.85 kg/year for current, former and never smokers, respectively, p<0.001). These findings were further confirmed by multivariable analysis. Multivariable logistic regression showed that receiving social help, being a current smoker or obese increased the likelihood of gaining ¿5Kg: Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43 (1.16-1.77); 1.63 (1.35-1.95) and 1.95 (1.57-2.43), respectively, while living in couple or being physically active decreased the risk: 0.73 (0.62-0.86) and 0.72 (0.62-0.83), respectively. No association was found between weight gain and gender, being born in Switzerland or education.ConclusionsIn Switzerland, financial difficulties (indicated by receiving social help) and current smoking were associated with increases in body weight over a 5 years follow-up. Living in couple, being older or physically active were protective against weight gain.

Epidemic: Responding to America's Prescription Drug Abuse Crisis, 2011

Prescription drug abuse is the Nation’s fastest-growing drug problem. While there has been a marked decrease in the use of some illegal drugs like cocaine, data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) show that nearly one-third of people aged 12 and over who used drugs for the first time in 2009 began by using a prescription drug non-medically.1 The same survey found that over 70 percent of people who abused prescription pain relievers got them from friends or relatives, while approximately 5 percent got them from a drug dealer or from the Internet.2 Additionally, the latest Monitoring the Future study—the Nation’s largest survey of drug use among young people—showed that prescription drugs are the second most-abused category of drugs after marijuana.3 In our military, illicit drug use increased from 5 percent to 12 percent among active duty service members over a three-year period from 2005 to 2008, primarily attributed to prescription drug abuse.

Self-organized evolution in a socio-economic environment

We propose a general scenario to analyze technological changes in socio-economic environments. We illustrate the ideas with a model that incorporating the main trends is simple enough to extract analytical results and, at the same time, sufficiently complex to display a rich dynamic behavior. Our study shows that there exists a macroscopic observable that is maximized in a regime where the system is critical, in the sense that the distribution of events follow power laws. Computer simulations show that, in addition, the system always self-organizes to achieve the optimal performance in the stationary state.

Managing the crises : How do Swiss municipalities react to the crisis and what explains the differences ?

Swiss municipalities are to an import ant extent responsible for their own resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property tax from individuals and enterprises, their budgets are likely to be directly affected by the actual crisis of the financial sector and the economy. This paper investigates how the municipalities perceive this threat and how they reacted to it or plan to do so. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked the local secretaries which measures they launch in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase of welfare spending. Do the municipalities rather rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or do they try to avoid further deficits by austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? The paper shows that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expect to be strongly hit by the crisis. Their reactions, however, do not reveal the clear patterns theory lets to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities take measures from both theories. The strongest explaining factor whether municipalities react is the affectedness by the crisis followed by the fact that the municipality belongs to the French speaking part of the country. Size also has an effect whereas the strength of the Social Democrats is negligible. More difficult is it, to explain what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Ecological and historical drivers of diversification in the fly genus Chiastocheta Pokorny.

Coevolution is among the main forces shaping the biodiversity on Earth. In Eurasia, one of the best-known plant-insect interactions showing highly coevolved features involves the fly genus Chiastocheta and its host-plant Trollius. Although this system has been widely studied from an ecological point of view, the phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history of the flies have remained little investigated. In this integrative study, we aim to test the monophyly of the five Chiastocheta eco-morphological groups, defined by Pellmyr in 1992, by inferring a mitochondrial phylogeny. We further apply a new approach to assess the effect of (i) different molecular substitution rates and (ii) phylogenetic uncertainty on the inference of the spatio-temporal evolution of the group. From a taxonomic point of view, we demonstrate that only two of Pellmyr's groups (rotundiventris and dentifera) are phylogenetically supported, the other species appearing para- or polyphyletic. We also identify the position of C. lophota, which was not included in previous surveys. From a spatio-temporal perspective, we show that the genus arose during the Pliocene in Europe. Our results also indicate that at least four large-scale dispersal events are required to explain the current distribution of Chiastocheta. Moreover, each dispersal to or from Asia is associated with a host-shift and seems to correspond to an increase in speciation rates. Finally, we highlight the correlation between diversification and climatic fluctuations, which indicate that the cycles of global cooling over the last million years had an influence on the radiation of the group.

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el procés d’especialització vitícola assolit als municipis de la província de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir històricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d’un procés que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del procés d’industrialització a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls “Boserupià” de la població en un context d’intensificació de l’ús de la terra, i d’un impuls del mercat “Smithià” en un context d’expansió de la demanda per part de les economies atlàntiques. També es posa de manifest la importància de les dotacions agro-ecològiques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d’ingrés. La difusió de la vinya donà com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augmentà de nou a partir d'aleshores.

Characterising avian haemosporidian communities : ecological factors, parasite persistence and co-infection

Les parasites jouent un rôle clef dans l'évolution des comportements et des traits d'histoire de vie de leurs hôtes. Le parasitisme s'avère parfois dévastateur à l'échelle de population d'hôtes, et peut également altérer certains traits associés à la valeur sélective d'un individu infecté, tels que son succès reproducteur ou encore son taux de mortalité. La coévolution hôte/parasite, qui représente l'une des forces sélectives les plus puissantes dans l'évolution des organismes, peut également conduire les partenaires de l'association parasitaire à s'adapter localement à des environnements hétérogènes. Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de parasites aviaires, du genre Plasmodium, Haemopro- teus et Leucocytozoon (Haemosporidae), naturellement associés à différentes populations de mésanges charbonnières (Parus major) et d'hirondelles des fenêtres (Delichon ur- bicum). Dans un premier temps, nous avons cherché à déterminer comment se distribuent ces parasites au sein de différentes populations hôtes et si ces communautés de parasites sont structurées. Par la suite, la principale question à laquelle nous voulions répondre était de savoir comment ces parasites, et notamment après coexistence de plusieurs lignées génétiques d'Haemosporidae au sein dun même-individu (i.e. co-infection), affectent la physiologie et le succès de reproducteur des hôtes. Nos résultats suggèrent que la distribution des Haemosporidae est principalement gouvernée par la présence d'insectes vecteurs et que la persistance de l'infection chez les hôtes varie en fonction du genre d'Haemosporidae (Chapitre 1-2). Par ailleurs, nous avons trouvé que des lignées de parasite génétiquement distinctes peuvent avoir des effets contrastés sur leurs hôtes. Par exemple, les hôtes exhibent des différences de parasitémie marquées en fonction des lignées de parasites responsable de l'infection. De plus, le succès reproducteur ainsi que la charge parasitaire des mésanges infectées par Plasmodium ou Haemoproteus n'étaient pas affecté par l'infection simultanée avec Leucocytozoon (Chapitre 2-3). Dans le Chapitre 4, j'ai examiné la capacité immunitaire de mésanges charbonnières infectées par des hémosporidies. Les résultats n'ont pas été concluant, et je suggère fortement une réévaluation de ceux-ci dans de futures études. Les mésanges charbonnières ne semblent pas signaler leur statut infectieux par la coloration de leur plumage (Chapitre 5); toutefois, la coloration noire des plumes reflète l'état de stress oxydatif des mésanges, qui dépend lui-même de l'infection parasitaire. La coloration verte pourrait également indiquer la qualité des soins paxentaux délivrés par les mésanges adultes femelles à leurs petits, comme le suggère la corrélation que nous avons observée entre la masse des jeunes d'une nichée et la coloration de leur mère. Les hirondelles capturées en Algérie souffrent plus de l'infection que celles échantillon¬nées en Europe (Chapitre 6). Les similitudes observées entre les communautés de par¬asites affectant les populations européennes et celles des populations nord-africaines suggèrent que la transmission des parasites a lieu lors de la migration vers le sud. A l'instar de nos observations sur les mésanges dans les chapitres 2 et 3, les hirondelles co-infectées ne montrent pas d'altérations de leur condition physique. Cette thèse démontre qu'il existe, au sein des populations de mésanges charbonnières, des interactions antagonistes entre, d'une part, les parasites et leurs hôtes et d'autre part, entre différent parasites. Le résultat de ces interactions antagonistes varie en fonction des espèces et de la zone géographique considérée. Nous avons démontré que les interactions ne suivent pas toujours la théorie, puisque la coevolution qui, en suivant le concept de la virulence, devrait augmenter la charge parasitaire et diminuer la condition physique des hôtes, ne montre pourtant pas d'impact négatif sur les populations de mésanges. Nous pouvons maintenant concentrer nos efforts à la caractérisation des interactions antagonistes. De plus, grâce aux avancées des méthodes moléculaires, nous pouvons suivre et étudier en détails comment ces interactions se manifestent et quels sont leurs effets sur la condition physique des hôtes. - Parasites are key in shaping various behavioural and life-history traits of their hosts. The influence of parasitism on host populations varies from slight to devastating and might influence such parameters as mortality rates or reproductive success. Host-parasite coevolution is one of the most powerful selective forces in evolution and can lead to local adaptation of parasites and hosts in spatially structured environments. In this thesis, I studied haemosporidian parasites in different populations of great tits (Parus major) and house martins (Delichon urbicum). Firstly, I wanted to determine how parasites are distributed and if parasite communities are structured. The main question I wanted to address hereafter was how parasites, and specifically infection with multiple genera of parasites (i.e. co-infection) influenced host physiology and reproductive success. I found that parasite distribution is environmentally driven and could therefore be closely linked to vector prevalence; and that the stability of parasite infection over time is genus-dependent (Chapter 1 - 2). I further found that different haemosporidian lineages might interact differently with their hosts as parasitaemia was strongly lineage-specific and that the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites showed no correlation to Plasmodium or Haemoproteus parasitaemia, nor to great tit reproductive success (Chapter 2-3). In Chapter 4 I examined immune capacity of haemosporidian-infected great tits. The results proved inconclusive, and I strongly suggest re-evaluation hereof in future work. Great tits do not appear to signal parasite infection through plumage colouration (Chapter 5); however, infection did have a link to oxidative stress resistance which is strongly signalled through the black breast stripe, with darker males being more resistant and darker females less resistant. Females might incur different costs associated with darker stripes. This would allow reversal of signaling function. Green colouration could also serve as a cue for female provisioning quality as indicated by the strong correlation between colouration and chick body mass. Breeding house martins caught in Algeria suffer greater haemosporidian infection than European populations (Chapter 6). Similar parasite communities in European and North-African populations suggest transmission of parasites may occur during southward migration. Similarly to what was observed in great tits in Chapter 2 and 3, no relationship was found between parasite co-infection and Swiss house martin body condition. This thesis demonstrates that host-parasite and inter-parasite antagonistic interac¬tions exist in great tit populations. How these interactions play out is species dependent and varies geographically. I have demonstrated that interactions do not always follow the theory, as co-infection - which under the concept of virulence should increase parasitaemia and decrease body condition - showed no negative impact on great tit populations. We can now concentrate our efforts on characterising these antagonistic interactions, and with the advance in molecular methods, track and investigate how these interactions play out and what the effect on host fitness is.

Socio-economic inequalities in reported depression in Spain : a decomposition approach

Recent evidence questions some conventional view on the existence of income-related inequalities in depression suggesting in turn that other determinants might be in place, such as activity status and educational attainment. Evidence of socio-economic inequalities is especially relevant in countries such as Spain that have a limited coverage of mental health care and are regionally heterogeneous. This paper aims at measuring and explaining the degree of socio-economic inequality in reported depression in Spain. We employ linear probability models to estimate the concentration index and its decomposition drawing from 2003 edition of the Spanish National Health Survey, the most recent representative health survey in Spain. Our findings point towards the existence of avoidable inequalities in the prevalence of reported depression. However, besides ¿pure income effects¿ explaining 37% of inequality, economic activity status (28%), education (15%) and demographics (15%) play also a key encompassing role. Although high income implies higher resources to invest and cure (mental) illness, environmental factors influencing in peoples perceived social status act as indirect path as explaining the prevalence of depression. Finally, we find evidence of a gender effect, gender social-economic inequality in income is mainly avoidable.