Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

STI-GMaS : an open-source environment for simulation of sexually-transmitted infections

Background Sexually-transmitted pathogens often have severe reproductive health implications if treatment is delayed or absent, especially in females. The complex processes of disease progression, namely replication and ascension of the infection through the genital tract, span both extracellular and intracellular physiological scales, and in females can vary over the distinct phases of the menstrual cycle. The complexity of these processes, coupled with the common impossibility of obtaining comprehensive and sequential clinical data from individual human patients, makes mathematical and computational modelling valuable tools in developing our understanding of the infection, with a view to identifying new interventions. While many within-host models of sexually-transmitted infections (STIs) are available in existing literature, these models are difficult to deploy in clinical/experimental settings since simulations often require complex computational approaches. Results We present STI-GMaS (Sexually-Transmitted Infections – Graphical Modelling and Simulation), an environment for simulation of STI models, with a view to stimulating the uptake of these models within the laboratory or clinic. The software currently focuses upon the representative case-study of Chlamydia trachomatis, the most common sexually-transmitted bacterial pathogen of humans. Here, we demonstrate the use of a hybrid PDE–cellular automata model for simulation of a hypothetical Chlamydia vaccination, demonstrating the effect of a vaccine-induced antibody in preventing the infection from ascending to above the cervix. This example illustrates the ease with which existing models can be adapted to describe new studies, and its careful parameterisation within STI-GMaS facilitates future tuning to experimental data as they arise. Conclusions STI-GMaS represents the first software designed explicitly for in-silico simulation of STI models by non-theoreticians, thus presenting a novel route to bridging the gap between computational and clinical/experimental disciplines. With the propensity for model reuse and extension, there is much scope within STI-GMaS to allow clinical and experimental studies to inform model inputs and drive future model development. Many of the modelling paradigms and software design principles deployed to date transfer readily to other STIs, both bacterial and viral; forthcoming releases of STI-GMaS will extend the software to incorporate a more diverse range of infections.

Nucleic acid hybridizations as radioactive tool for rapid detection of banana bunchy top virus

Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) caused by banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) was radioactively detected by nucleic acid hybridization techniques. Results showed that, 32P-labelled insert of pBT338 was hybridized with nucleic acid extracts from BBTV-infected plants from Egypt and Australia but not with those from CMV-infected plants from Egypt. Results revealed that BBTV was greatly detected in midrib, roots, meristem, corm, leaves and pseudostem respectively. BBTV was also detected in symptomless young plants prepared from diseased plant materials grown under tissue culture conditions but was not present in those performed from healthy plant materials. The sensitivity of dot blot and Southern blot hybridizations for the detection of BBTV was also performed for the detection of BBTV.

Intercalation of dodecylamine into kaolinite and its layering structure investigated by molecular dynamics simulation

Dodecylamine was successfully intercalated into the layer space of kaolinite by utilizing the methanol treated kaolinite–dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) intercalation complex as an intermediate. The basal spacing of kaolinite, measured by X-ray diffraction (XRD), increased from 0.72 nm to 4.29 nm after the intercalation of dodecylamine. Also, the significant variation observed in the Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra of kaolinite when intercalated with dodecylamine verified the feasibility of intercalation of dodecylamine into kaolinite. Isothermal-isobaric (NPT) molecular dynamics simulation with the use of Dreiding force field was performed to probe into the layering behavior and structure of nanoconfined dodecylamine in the kaolinite gallery. The concentration profiles of the nitrogen atom, methyl group and methylene group of intercalated dodecylamine molecules in the direction perpendicular to the kaolinite basal surface indicated that the alkyl chains within the interlayer space of kaolinite exhibited an obvious layering structure. However, the unified bilayer, pseudo-trilayer, or paraffin-type arrangements of alkyl chains deduced based on their chain length combined with the measured basal spacing of organoclays were not found in this study. The alkyl chains aggregated to a mixture of ordered paraffin-type-like structure and disordered gauche conformation in the middle interlayer space of kaolinite, and some alkyl chains arranged in two bilayer structures, in which one was close to the silica tetrahedron surface, and the other was close to the alumina octahedron surface with their alkyl chains parallel to the kaolinite basal surface.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

Applications of Spreadsheets in Education : The Amazing Power of a Simple Tool

This e-book is devoted to the use of spreadsheets in the service of education in a broad spectrum of disciplines: science, mathematics, engineering, business, and general education. The effort is aimed at collecting the works of prominent researchers and educators that make use of spreadsheets as a means to communicate concepts with high educational value. The e-book brings some of the most recent applications of spreadsheets in education and research to the fore. To offer the reader a broad overview of the diversity of applications, carefully chosen articles from engineering (power systems and control), mathematics (calculus, differential equations, and probability), science (physics and chemistry), and education are provided. Some of these applications make use of Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), a versatile computer language that further expands the functionality of spreadsheets. The material included in this e-book should inspire readers to devise their own applications and enhance their teaching and/or learning experience.

Organizational work-related road safety situational analysis: More than just an audit tool

Although safety statistics indicate that road crashes are the most common form of work-related fatalities, many organizations fail to treat company vehicles in the same manner as other physical safety hazards within the workplace. Traditionally, work-related road safety has targeted primarily driver-related issues and not adequately addressed organizational processes, such as the organizations’ safety system and risk management processes and practice. This inadequacy generally stems from a lack of specific contextual knowledge and basic requirements to improve work-related road safety, including the supporting systems to ensure any intervention strategy or initiative’s ongoing effectiveness. Therefore, informed by previous research and based on a case study methodology, the Organizational Work-Related Road Safety Situational Analysis was developed to assess organizations’ current work-related road safety system, including policy, procedures, processes and practice. The situational analysis tool is similar to a safety audit however is more comprehensive in detail, application and provides sufficient evidence to enable organizations to mitigate and manage their work-related road safety risks. In addition, data collected from this process assists organizations in making informed decisions regarding intervention strategy design, development, implementation and ongoing effectiveness. This paper reports on the effectiveness of the situational analysis tool to assess WRRS systems across five differing and diverse organizations; including gas exploration and mining, state government, local government, and not for profit/philanthropy. The outcomes of this project identified considerable differences in the degree by which the organizations’ addressed work-related road safety across their vehicle fleet operations and provides guidelines for improving organizations’ work-related road safety systems.

Idealised simulation of downburst winds

Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

Simulation of carbon arc discharge for the synthesis of nanotubes

Arc discharge ablation with a catalyst-filled carbon anode in a helium background was used for the synthesis of graphene and carbon nanotubes. In this paper, we present the results of the numerical simulation of the distribution of various plasma parameters in discharge, as well as the distribution of carbon flux on the nanotube surface, for the typical discharge with an arc current of 60 A and a background gas pressure of 68 kPa.

Simulation and visualization of self-assembled nanodevice networks synthesized via plasma–surface interaction

Using advanced visualization techniques, a comprehensive visualization of all the stages of the self-organized growth of internetworked nanostructures on plasma-exposed surface has been made. Atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo simulation for the initial stage of deposition, with 3-D visualization of the whole system and half-tone visualization of the density field of the adsorbed atoms, makes it possible to implement a multiscale predictive modeling of the development of the nanoscale system.