Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

Estimating the term structure of volatility and fixed income derivative pricing

Estimating the parameters of the instantaneous spot interest rate process is of crucial importance for pricing fixed income derivative securities. This paper presents an estimation for the parameters of the Gaussian interest rate model for pricing fixed income derivatives based on the term structure of volatility. We estimate the term structure of volatility for US treasury rates for the period 1983 - 1995, based on a history of yield curves. We estimate both conditional and first differences term structures of volatility and subsequently estimate the implied parameters of the Gaussian model with non-linear least squares estimation. Results for bond options illustrate the effects of differing parameters in pricing.

Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates

This paper builds a simple, empirically-verifiable rational expectations model for term structure of nominal interest rates analysis. It solves an stochastic growth model with investment costs and sticky inflation, susceptible to the intervention of the monetary authority following a policy rule. The model predicts several patterns of the term structure which are in accordance to observed empirical facts: (i) pro-cyclical pattern of the level of nominal interest rates; (ii) countercyclical pattern of the term spread; (iii) pro-cyclical pattern of the curvature of the yield curve; (iv) lower predictability of the slope of the middle of the term structure; and (v) negative correlation of changes in real rates and expected inflation at short horizons.

The long-term effects of conditional cash transfers on child labor and school enrollment

This paper investigates the long-term e ects of conditional cash transfers on school attainment and child labor. To this end, we construct a dynamic heterogeneous agent model, calibrate it with Brazilian data, and introduce a policy similar to the Brazilian Bolsa Fam lia. Our results suggest that this type of policy has a very strong impact on educational outcomes, sharply increasing primary school completion. The conditional transfer is also able to reduce the share of working children from 22% to 17%. We then compute the transition to the new steady state and show that the program actually increases child labor over the short run, because the transfer is not enough to completely cover the schooling costs, so children have to work to be able to comply with the program's schooling eligibility requirement. We also evaluate the impacts on poverty, inequality, and welfare.

Environmental and grazing influence on spatial variability of intertidal biofilm on subtropical rocky shores

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Combined Pool/Bilateral Short-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling Model for Day-Ahead Energy Markets

This paper proposes a combined pool/bilateral short term hydrothermal scheduling model (PDC) for the context of the day-ahead energy markets. Some innovative aspects are introduced in the model, such as: i) the hydraulic generation is optimized through the opportunity cost function proposed; ii) there is no decoupling between physical and commercial dispatches, as is the case today in Brazil; iii) interrelationships between pool and bilateral markets are represented through a single optimization problem; iv) risk exposures related to future deficits are intrinsically mitigated; v) the model calculates spot prices in an hourly basis and the results show a coherent correlation between hydrological conditions and calculated prices. The proposed PDC model is solved by a primal-dual interior point method and is evaluated by simulations involving a test system. The results are focused on sensitivity analyses involving the parameters of the model, in such a way to emphasize its main modeling aspects. The results show that the proposed PDC provides a conceptual means for short term price formation for hydrothermal systems.

Influences of thermal and electric load fluctuations in the cogeneration attractiveness

The use of mean values of thermal and electric demand can be justifiable for synthesising the configuration and for estimating the economic results because it simplifies the analysis in a preliminary feasibility study of a cogeneration plant. For determining the cogeneration scheme that best fits the energetic needs of a process several cycles and combinations must be considered, and those technically feasible will be analysed according to economic models. Although interesting for a first approach, this procedure do not consider that the peaks and valleys present in the load patterns will impose additional constraints relatively to the equipment capacities. In this paper, the effects of thermal and electric load fluctuation to the cogeneration plant design were considered. An approach for modelling these load variability is proposed for comparing two competing thermal and electric parity competing schemes. A gas turbine associated to a heat recovery steam generator was then proposed and analysed for thermal- and electric-following operational strategies. Thermal-following option revealed to be more attractive for the technical and economic limits defined for this analysis. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-Term Multinodal Load Forecasting Using a Modified General Regression Neural Network

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Short-term vs long-term calcium hydroxide therapy after immediate tooth replantation: a histomorphometric study in monkey's teeth

Endodontic treatment is an important step of tooth replantation protocols, but the ideal moment for definitive obturation of replanted teeth has not yet been established. In this study, a histomorphometric analysis was undertaken to evaluate the repair process on immediate replantation of monkeys teeth after calcium hydroxide (CH) therapy for 1 and 6 months followed by root canal filling with a CH-based sealer (Sealapex (R)). The maxillary and mandibular lateral incisors of five female Cebus apella monkeys were extracted, kept in sterile saline for 15 min, replanted and splinted with stainless steel orthodontic wire and composite resin for 10 days. In Group I (control), definitive root canal filling was performed before tooth extraction. In Groups II and III, CH therapy started after removal of splint, and definitive root canal filling was performed 1 and 6 months later, respectively. The animals were euthanized 9 months after replantation, and specimens were processed for histomorphometric analysis. In all groups, epithelial attachment occurred at the cementoenamel junction or very close to this region; the areas of resorption on root surface had small extension and depth and were repaired by newly formed cementum; and the periodontal ligament was organized. Statistical analysis of the scores obtained for the histomorphometric parameters did not show any statistically significant difference (P = 0.1221) among the groups. The results suggests that when endodontic treatment is initiated 10 days after immediate replantation and an antibiotic regimen is associated, definitive root canal filling can be performed after a short-term CH therapy.

Long-term effect of carbodiimide on dentin matrix and resin-dentin bonds

Objectives: To characterize the interaction of 1-Ethyl-3-[3-dimethylaminopropyl] carbodiimide Hydrochloride (EDC) with dentin matrix and its effect on the resin-dentin bond. Methods: Changes to the stiffness of demineralized dentin fragments treated with EDC/N-hydroxysuccinimide (NHS) in different solutions were evaluated at different time points. The resistance against enzymatic degradation was indirectly evaluated by ultimate tensile strength (UTS) test of demineralized dentin treated or not with EDC/NHS and subjected to collagenase digestion. Short- and long-term evaluations of the strength of resin-dentin interfaces treated with EDC/NHS for 1 h were performed using microtensile bond strength (mu TBS) test. All data (MPa) were individually analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey HSD tests (alpha = 0.05). Results: The different exposure times significantly increased the stiffness of dentin (p < 0.0001, control-5.15 and EDC/NHS-29.50), while no differences were observed among the different solutions of EDC/NHS (p = 0.063). Collagenase challenge did not affect the UTS values of EDC/NHS group (6.08) (p > 0.05), while complete degradation was observed for the control group (p = 0.0008, control-20.84 and EDC/NHS-43.15). EDC/NHS treatment did not significantly increase resin-dentin mu TBS, but the values remained stable after 12 months water storage (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Biomimetic use of EDC/NHS to induce exogenous collagen cross-links resulted in increased mechanical properties and stability of dentin matrix and dentin-resin interfaces. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 94B: 250-255, 2010.

Sexual behaviour, sperm quantity and quality after short-term streptozotocin-induced hyperglycaemia in rats

Studies of diabetes mellitus in the streptozotocin rat model suggest that sexual dysfunctions may result from diabetes-induced alterations of the neuroendocrine-reproductive tract axis. Our investigation was performed to better define the effects of short-term hyperglycaemia on rat epididymal sperm quantity, quality and transit time, using both natural mating and artificial in utero insemination protocols. Male rats were made diabetic with streptozotocin (sc, 40 mg/kg), whereas controls received vehicle. Sexual behaviour was tested after 15 days and sperm fertilizing ability was checked 22 days after the injection through natural mating and artificial in utero insemination. Other parameters such as daily sperm production, testosterone levels, as well as sperm morphology and motility were also investigated. Fifty per cent of the diabetic animals showed no copulatory behaviour during tests and the number of animals reaching ejaculation was smaller in the diabetic group when compared with the control group (33% vs. 83%). Diabetes resulted in decreased body and reproductive organ weights, as well as diminished sperm counts in the testis and epididymis, that were associated with diminution of plasmatic testosterone levels. After natural mating, there was a decrease in the fertility in the diabetic adult male rats (25.5%) compared with control animals (81.5%). However, distal cauda epididymal sperm from diabetic rats displayed normal fertilization ability (91.5%) using in utero insemination. There were no effects of hyperglycaemia on sperm transit time in the epididymis and on spermatogenesis. Our results indicate that diabetes mellitus produces reproductive dysfunction, but does not compromise sperm fertilizing ability in the cauda epididymis in this experimental model.

Early Changes Induced by Short-Term Low-Dose Cadmium Exposure in Rat Ventral and Dorsolateral Prostates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short-term changes caused by fire and mowing in Brazilian Campos grasslands with different long-term fire histories

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Short term hydroelectric scheduling combining network flow and interior point approaches

In this paper, short term hydroelectric scheduling is formulated as a network flow optimization model and solved by interior point methods. The primal-dual and predictor-corrector versions of such interior point methods are developed and the resulting matrix structure is explored. This structure leads to very fast iterations since it avoids computation and factorization of impedance matrices. For each time interval, the linear algebra reduces to the solution of two linear systems, either to the number of buses or to the number of independent loops. Either matrix is invariant and can be factored off-line. As a consequence of such matrix manipulations, a linear system which changes at each iteration has to be solved, although its size is reduced to the number of generating units and is not a function of time intervals. These methods were applied to IEEE and Brazilian power systems, and numerical results were obtained using a MATLAB implementation. Both interior point methods proved to be robust and achieved fast convergence for all instances tested. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AN INEXPENSIVE METHOD FOR CHROMOSOME PREPARATIONS FROM FEATHER PULP IN BIRDS, USING SHORT-TERM TREATMENT WITH COLCHICINE IN-VITRO, DEMONSTRATED ON AMAZONA-AMAZONICA (PSITTACIDAE)

In order to develop an efficient and low-cost technique for obtaining bird chromosome preparations, and to adapt the cytogenetic process of bird sexing for general use at zoos and breeding farms with the technical support of cytogenetics laboratories, we tested variants of the technique described by Giannoni et al. (Genet. Sel. Evol. 23: 123-125, 1991), based on the utilization of cellular material from growing feather pulp cultured in complete medium for six hours. Hanks' saline solution gave satisfactory performance as a substitute for complete medium, with no need to use PHA, serum of collagenase, when utilized in material obtained from feather pulp of Amazona amazonica (Psittacidae).