Introducing uncertainty into pattern discovery in temporal event sequences

Pattern discovery in temporal event sequences is of great importance in many application domains, such as telecommunication network fault analysis. In reality, not every type of event has an accurate timestamp. Some of them, defined as inaccurate events may only have an interval as possible time of occurrence. The existence of inaccurate events may cause uncertainty in event ordering. The traditional support model cannot deal with this uncertainty, which would cause some interesting patterns to be missing. A new concept, precise support, is introduced to evaluate the probability of a pattern contained in a sequence. Based on this new metric, we define the uncertainty model and present an algorithm to discover interesting patterns in the sequence database that has one type of inaccurate event. In our model, the number of types of inaccurate events can be extended to k readily, however, at a cost of increasing computational complexity.

Event related potential (ERP) evidence for selective impairment of verbal recollection in abstinent recreational methylenedioxymethamphetamine (“Ecstasy”)/polydrug users

Objectives Ecstasy is a recreational drug whose active ingredient, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), acts predominantly on the serotonergic system. Although MDMA is known to be neurotoxic in animals, the long-term effects of recreational Ecstasy use in humans remain controversial but one commonly reported consequence is mild cognitive impairment particularly affecting verbal episodic memory. Although event-related potentials (ERPs) have made significant contributions to our understanding of human memory processes, until now they have not been applied to study the long-term effects of Ecstasy. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of past Ecstasy use on recognition memory for both verbal and non-verbal stimuli using ERPs. Methods We compared the ERPs of 15 Ecstasy/polydrug users with those of 14 cannabis users and 13 non-illicit drug users as controls. Results Despite equivalent memory performance, Ecstasy/polydrug users showed an attenuated late positivity over left parietal scalp sites, a component associated with the specific memory process of recollection. Conlusions This effect was only found in the word recognition task which is consistent with evidence that left hemisphere cognitive functions are disproportionately affected by Ecstasy, probably because the serotonergic system is laterally asymmetrical. Experimentally, decreasing central serotonergic activity through acute tryptophan depletion also selectively impairs recollection, and this too suggests the importance of the serotonergic system. Overall, our results suggest that Ecstasy users, who also use a wide range of other drugs, show a durable abnormality in a specific ERP component thought to be associated with recollection.

Using system dynamics in a discrete-event simulation study of a manufacturing plant

Purpose - To provide an example of the use of system dynamics within the context of a discrete-event simulation study. Design/methodology/approach - A discrete-event simulation study of a production-planning facility in a gas cylinder-manufacturing plant is presented. The case study evidence incorporates questionnaire responses from sales managers involved in the order-scheduling process. Findings - As the project progressed it became clear that, although the discrete-event simulation would meet the objectives of the study in a technical sense, the organizational problem of "delivery performance" would not be solved by the discrete-event simulation study alone. The case shows how the qualitative outcomes of the discrete-event simulation study led to an analysis using the system dynamics technique. The system dynamics technique was able to model the decision-makers in the sales and production process and provide a deeper understanding of the performance of the system. Research limitations/implications - The case study describes a traditional discrete-event simulation study which incorporated an unplanned investigation using system dynamics. Further, case studies using a planned approach to showing consideration of organizational issues in discrete-event simulation studies are required. Then the role of both qualitative data in a discrete-event simulation study and the use of supplementary tools which incorporate organizational aspects may help generate a methodology for discrete-event simulation that incorporates human aspects and so improve its relevance for decision making. Practical implications - It is argued that system dynamics can provide a useful addition to the toolkit of the discrete-event simulation practitioner in helping them incorporate a human aspect in their analysis. Originality/value - Helps decision makers gain a broader perspective on the tools available to them by showing the use of system dynamics to supplement the use of discrete-event simulation. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

A methodology for analysis and control of discrete event dynamic systems

The rapid developments in computer technology have resulted in a widespread use of discrete event dynamic systems (DEDSs). This type of system is complex because it exhibits properties such as concurrency, conflict and non-determinism. It is therefore important to model and analyse such systems before implementation to ensure safe, deadlock free and optimal operation. This thesis investigates current modelling techniques and describes Petri net theory in more detail. It reviews top down, bottom up and hybrid Petri net synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems and introduces on object oriented methodology to enable modelling of larger and more complex systems. Designs obtained by this methodology are modular, easy to understand and allow re-use of designs. Control is the next logical step in the design process. This thesis reviews recent developments in control DEDSs and investigates the use of Petri nets in the design of supervisory controllers. The scheduling of exclusive use of resources is investigated and an efficient Petri net based scheduling algorithm is designed and a re-configurable controller is proposed. To enable the analysis and control of large and complex DEDSs, an object oriented C++ software tool kit was developed and used to implement a Petri net analysis tool, Petri net scheduling and control algorithms. Finally, the methodology was applied to two industrial DEDSs: a prototype can sorting machine developed by Eurotherm Controls Ltd., and a semiconductor testing plant belonging to SGS Thomson Microelectronics Ltd.