Reply to Comment on 'Two-finger selection theory in the Saffman-Taylor problem

We clarify the meaning of the results of Phys. Rev. E 60, R5013 (1999). We discuss the use and implications of periodic boundary conditions, as opposed to rigid-wall ones. We briefly argue that the solutions of the paper above are physically relevant as part of a more general issue, namely the possible generalization to dynamics, of the microscopic solvability scenario of selection.

Natural selection in a postglacial range expansion: the case of the colour cline in the European barn owl.

Gradients of variation-or clines-have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.

Assessment of the occurrence of nanoparticles in Swiss industry and evaluation of the appropriatenesss of the measurement devices to determine the workforce exposure

Abstract : The occupational health risk involved with handling nanoparticles is the probability that a worker will experience an adverse health effect: this is calculated as a function of the worker's exposure relative to the potential biological hazard of the material. Addressing the risks of nanoparticles requires therefore knowledge on occupational exposure and the release of nanoparticles into the environment as well as toxicological data. However, information on exposure is currently not systematically collected; therefore this risk assessment lacks quantitative data. This thesis aimed at, first creating the fundamental data necessary for a quantitative assessment and, second, evaluating methods to measure the occupational nanoparticle exposure. The first goal was to determine what is being used where in Swiss industries. This was followed by an evaluation of the adequacy of existing measurement methods to assess workplace nanopaiticle exposure to complex size distributions and concentration gradients. The study was conceived as a series of methodological evaluations aimed at better understanding nanoparticle measurement devices and methods. lt focused on inhalation exposure to airborne particles, as respiration is considered to be the most important entrance pathway for nanoparticles in the body in terms of risk. The targeted survey (pilot study) was conducted as a feasibility study for a later nationwide survey on the handling of nanoparticles and the applications of specific protection means in industry. The study consisted of targeted phone interviews with health and safety officers of Swiss companies that were believed to use or produce nanoparticles. This was followed by a representative survey on the level of nanoparticle usage in Switzerland. lt was designed based on the results of the pilot study. The study was conducted among a representative selection of clients of the Swiss National Accident Insurance Fund (SUVA), covering about 85% of Swiss production companies. The third part of this thesis focused on the methods to measure nanoparticles. Several pre- studies were conducted studying the limits of commonly used measurement devices in the presence of nanoparticle agglomerates, This focus was chosen, because several discussions with users and producers of the measurement devices raised questions about their accuracy measuring nanoparticle agglomerates and because, at the same time, the two survey studies revealed that such powders are frequently used in industry. The first preparatory experiment focused on the accuracy of the scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), which showed an improbable size distribution when measuring powders of nanoparticle agglomerates. Furthermore, the thesis includes a series of smaller experiments that took a closer look at problems encountered with other measurement devices in the presence of nanoparticle agglomerates: condensation particle counters (CPC), portable aerosol spectrometer (PAS) a device to estimate the aerodynamic diameter, as well as diffusion size classifiers. Some initial feasibility tests for the efficiency of filter based sampling and subsequent counting of carbon nanotubes (CNT) were conducted last. The pilot study provided a detailed picture of the types and amounts of nanoparticles used and the knowledge of the health and safety experts in the companies. Considerable maximal quantities (> l'000 kg/year per company) of Ag, Al-Ox, Fe-Ox, SiO2, TiO2, and ZnO (mainly first generation particles) were declared by the contacted Swiss companies, The median quantity of handled nanoparticles, however, was 100 kg/year. The representative survey was conducted by contacting by post mail a representative selection of l '626 SUVA-clients (Swiss Accident Insurance Fund). It allowed estimation of the number of companies and workers dealing with nanoparticles in Switzerland. The extrapolation from the surveyed companies to all companies of the Swiss production sector suggested that l'309 workers (95%-confidence interval l'073 to l'545) of the Swiss production sector are potentially exposed to nanoparticles in 586 companies (145 to l'027). These numbers correspond to 0.08% (0.06% to 0.09%) of all workers and to 0.6% (0.2% to 1.1%) of companies in the Swiss production sector. To measure airborne concentrations of sub micrometre-sized particles, a few well known methods exist. However, it was unclear how well the different instruments perform in the presence of the often quite large agglomerates of nanostructured materials. The evaluation of devices and methods focused on nanoparticle agglomerate powders. lt allowed the identification of the following potential sources of inaccurate measurements at workplaces with considerable high concentrations of airborne agglomerates: - A standard SMPS showed bi-modal particle size distributions when measuring large nanoparticle agglomerates. - Differences in the range of a factor of a thousand were shown between diffusion size classifiers and CPC/SMPS. - The comparison between CPC/SMPS and portable aerosol Spectrometer (PAS) was much better, but depending on the concentration, size or type of the powders measured, the differences were still of a high order of magnitude - Specific difficulties and uncertainties in the assessment of workplaces were identified: the background particles can interact with particles created by a process, which make the handling of background concentration difficult. - Electric motors produce high numbers of nanoparticles and confound the measurement of the process-related exposure. Conclusion: The surveys showed that nanoparticles applications exist in many industrial sectors in Switzerland and that some companies already use high quantities of them. The representative survey demonstrated a low prevalence of nanoparticle usage in most branches of the Swiss industry and led to the conclusion that the introduction of applications using nanoparticles (especially outside industrial chemistry) is only beginning. Even though the number of potentially exposed workers was reportedly rather small, it nevertheless underscores the need for exposure assessments. Understanding exposure and how to measure it correctly is very important because the potential health effects of nanornaterials are not yet fully understood. The evaluation showed that many devices and methods of measuring nanoparticles need to be validated for nanoparticles agglomerates before large exposure assessment studies can begin. Zusammenfassung : Das Gesundheitsrisiko von Nanopartikel am Arbeitsplatz ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit dass ein Arbeitnehmer einen möglichen Gesundheitsschaden erleidet wenn er diesem Stoff ausgesetzt ist: sie wird gewöhnlich als Produkt von Schaden mal Exposition gerechnet. Für eine gründliche Abklärung möglicher Risiken von Nanomaterialien müssen also auf der einen Seite Informationen über die Freisetzung von solchen Materialien in die Umwelt vorhanden sein und auf der anderen Seite solche über die Exposition von Arbeitnehmenden. Viele dieser Informationen werden heute noch nicht systematisch gesarnmelt und felilen daher für Risikoanalysen, Die Doktorarbeit hatte als Ziel, die Grundlagen zu schaffen für eine quantitative Schatzung der Exposition gegenüber Nanopartikel am Arbeitsplatz und die Methoden zu evaluieren die zur Messung einer solchen Exposition nötig sind. Die Studie sollte untersuchen, in welchem Ausmass Nanopartikel bereits in der Schweizer Industrie eingesetzt werden, wie viele Arbeitnehrner damit potentiel] in Kontakt komrrien ob die Messtechnologie für die nötigen Arbeitsplatzbelastungsmessungen bereits genügt, Die Studie folcussierte dabei auf Exposition gegenüber luftgetragenen Partikel, weil die Atmung als Haupteintrittspforte iïlr Partikel in den Körper angesehen wird. Die Doktorarbeit besteht baut auf drei Phasen auf eine qualitative Umfrage (Pilotstudie), eine repräsentative, schweizerische Umfrage und mehrere technische Stndien welche dem spezitischen Verständnis der Mëglichkeiten und Grenzen einzelner Messgeräte und - teclmikeri dienen. Die qualitative Telephonumfrage wurde durchgeführt als Vorstudie zu einer nationalen und repräsentativen Umfrage in der Schweizer Industrie. Sie zielte auf Informationen ab zum Vorkommen von Nanopartikeln, und den angewendeten Schutzmassnahmen. Die Studie bestand aus gezielten Telefoninterviews mit Arbeit- und Gesundheitsfachpersonen von Schweizer Unternehmen. Die Untemehmen wurden aufgrund von offentlich zugànglichen lnformationen ausgewählt die darauf hinwiesen, dass sie mit Nanopartikeln umgehen. Der zweite Teil der Dolctorarbeit war die repräsentative Studie zur Evalniernng der Verbreitnng von Nanopaitikelanwendungen in der Schweizer lndustrie. Die Studie baute auf lnformationen der Pilotstudie auf und wurde mit einer repräsentativen Selektion von Firmen der Schweizerischen Unfall Versicherungsanstalt (SUVA) durchgeüihxt. Die Mehrheit der Schweizerischen Unternehmen im lndustrieselctor wurde damit abgedeckt. Der dritte Teil der Doktorarbeit fokussierte auf die Methodik zur Messung von Nanopartikeln. Mehrere Vorstudien wurden dnrchgefîihrt, um die Grenzen von oft eingesetzten Nanopartikelmessgeräten auszuloten, wenn sie grösseren Mengen von Nanopartikel Agglomeraten ausgesetzt messen sollen. Dieser F okns wurde ans zwei Gründen gewählt: weil mehrere Dislcussionen rnit Anwendem und auch dem Produzent der Messgeràte dort eine Schwachstelle vermuten liessen, welche Zweifel an der Genauigkeit der Messgeräte aufkommen liessen und weil in den zwei Umfragestudien ein häufiges Vorkommen von solchen Nanopartikel-Agglomeraten aufgezeigt wurde. i Als erstes widmete sich eine Vorstndie der Genauigkeit des Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS). Dieses Messgerät zeigte in Präsenz von Nanopartikel Agglorneraten unsinnige bimodale Partikelgrössenverteilung an. Eine Serie von kurzen Experimenten folgte, welche sich auf andere Messgeräte und deren Probleme beim Messen von Nanopartikel-Agglomeraten konzentrierten. Der Condensation Particle Counter (CPC), der portable aerosol spectrometer (PAS), ein Gerät zur Schàtzung des aerodynamischen Durchniessers von Teilchen, sowie der Diffusion Size Classifier wurden getestet. Einige erste Machbarkeitstests zur Ermittlnng der Effizienz von tilterbasierter Messung von luftgetragenen Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) wnrden als letztes durchgeiührt. Die Pilotstudie hat ein detailliiertes Bild der Typen und Mengen von genutzten Nanopartikel in Schweizer Unternehmen geliefert, und hat den Stand des Wissens der interviewten Gesundheitsschntz und Sicherheitsfachleute aufgezeigt. Folgende Typen von Nanopaitikeln wurden von den kontaktierten Firmen als Maximalmengen angegeben (> 1'000 kg pro Jahr / Unternehrnen): Ag, Al-Ox, Fe-Ox, SiO2, TiO2, und ZnO (hauptsächlich Nanopartikel der ersten Generation). Die Quantitäten von eingesetzten Nanopartikeln waren stark verschieden mit einem ein Median von 100 kg pro Jahr. ln der quantitativen Fragebogenstudie wurden l'626 Unternehmen brieflich kontaktiert; allesamt Klienten der Schweizerischen Unfallversicherringsanstalt (SUVA). Die Resultate der Umfrage erlaubten eine Abschätzung der Anzahl von Unternehmen und Arbeiter, welche Nanopartikel in der Schweiz anwenden. Die Hochrechnung auf den Schweizer lndnstriesektor hat folgendes Bild ergeben: ln 586 Unternehmen (95% Vertrauensintervallz 145 bis 1'027 Unternehmen) sind 1'309 Arbeiter potentiell gegenüber Nanopartikel exponiert (95%-Vl: l'073 bis l'545). Diese Zahlen stehen für 0.6% der Schweizer Unternehmen (95%-Vl: 0.2% bis 1.1%) und 0.08% der Arbeiternehmerschaft (95%-V1: 0.06% bis 0.09%). Es gibt einige gut etablierte Technologien um die Luftkonzentration von Submikrometerpartikel zu messen. Es besteht jedoch Zweifel daran, inwiefern sich diese Technologien auch für die Messurrg von künstlich hergestellten Nanopartikeln verwenden lassen. Aus diesem Grund folcussierten die vorbereitenden Studien für die Arbeitsplatzbeurteilnngen auf die Messung von Pulverri, welche Nan0partike1-Agg10merate enthalten. Sie erlaubten die ldentifikation folgender rnöglicher Quellen von fehlerhaften Messungen an Arbeitsplätzen mit erhöhter Luft-K0nzentrati0n von Nanopartikel Agglomeratenz - Ein Standard SMPS zeigte eine unglaubwürdige bimodale Partikelgrössenverteilung wenn er grössere Nan0par'til<e1Agg10merate gemessen hat. - Grosse Unterschiede im Bereich von Faktor tausend wurden festgestellt zwischen einem Diffusion Size Classiîier und einigen CPC (beziehungsweise dem SMPS). - Die Unterschiede zwischen CPC/SMPS und dem PAS waren geringer, aber abhängig von Grosse oder Typ des gemessenen Pulvers waren sie dennoch in der Grössenordnung von einer guten Grössenordnung. - Spezifische Schwierigkeiten und Unsicherheiten im Bereich von Arbeitsplatzmessungen wurden identitiziert: Hintergrundpartikel können mit Partikeln interagieren die während einem Arbeitsprozess freigesetzt werden. Solche Interaktionen erschweren eine korrekte Einbettung der Hintergrunds-Partikel-Konzentration in die Messdaten. - Elektromotoren produzieren grosse Mengen von Nanopartikeln und können so die Messung der prozessbezogenen Exposition stören. Fazit: Die Umfragen zeigten, dass Nanopartikel bereits Realitàt sind in der Schweizer Industrie und dass einige Unternehmen bereits grosse Mengen davon einsetzen. Die repräsentative Umfrage hat diese explosive Nachricht jedoch etwas moderiert, indem sie aufgezeigt hat, dass die Zahl der Unternehmen in der gesamtschweizerischen Industrie relativ gering ist. In den meisten Branchen (vor allem ausserhalb der Chemischen Industrie) wurden wenig oder keine Anwendungen gefunden, was schliessen last, dass die Einführung dieser neuen Technologie erst am Anfang einer Entwicklung steht. Auch wenn die Zahl der potentiell exponierten Arbeiter immer noch relativ gering ist, so unterstreicht die Studie dennoch die Notwendigkeit von Expositionsmessungen an diesen Arbeitsplätzen. Kenntnisse um die Exposition und das Wissen, wie solche Exposition korrekt zu messen, sind sehr wichtig, vor allem weil die möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Gesundheit noch nicht völlig verstanden sind. Die Evaluation einiger Geräte und Methoden zeigte jedoch, dass hier noch Nachholbedarf herrscht. Bevor grössere Mess-Studien durgefîihrt werden können, müssen die Geräte und Methodem für den Einsatz mit Nanopartikel-Agglomeraten validiert werden.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Blood corticosterone levels and intersexual selection games: best-of-bad-job strategies of male common lizards

Glucocorticoids affect physiology and behaviour, reproduction and potentially sexual selection as well. Shortterm and moderate glucocorticoid elevations are suggested to be adaptive, and prolonged and high elevations may be extremely harmful. This suggests that optimal reproductive strategies, and thus sexual selection, may be dose dependent. Here, we investigate effects of moderate and high elevations of blood corticosterone levels on intra- and intersexual behaviour and mating success of male common lizards Lacerta vivipara. Females showed less interest and more aggressive behaviour towards high corticosterone males and blood corticosterone levels affected male reproductive strategy. Males of moderate and high corticosterone elevations, compared with Control males, showed increased interest (i.e., higher number of chases, tongue extrusions, and approaches) towards females and high corticosterone males initiated more copulation attempts. However, neither increased male interest nor increased copulation attempts resulted in more copulations. This provides evidence for a best-of-a-bad-job strategy, where males with higher corticosterone levels compensated for reduced female interest and increased aggressive female behaviour directed towards them, by showing higher interest and by conducting more copulation attempts. Blood corticosterone levels affected intrasexual selection as well since moderate corticosterone levels positively affected male dominance, but dominance did not affect mating success. These findings underline the importance of female mate choice and are in line with adaptive compensatory behaviours of males. They further show that glucocorticoid effects on behaviour are dose dependent and that they have important implications for sexual selection and social interactions, and might potentially affect Darwinian fitness.

Male cognitive performance declines in the absence of sexual selection.

Sexual selection is responsible for the evolution of male ornaments and armaments, but its role in the evolution of cognition--the ability to process, retain and use information--is largely unexplored. Because successful courtship is likely to involve processing information in complex, competitive sexual environments, we hypothesized that sexual selection contributes to the evolution and maintenance of cognitive abilities in males. To test this, we removed mate choice and mate competition from experimental populations of Drosophila melanogaster by enforcing monogamy for over 100 generations. Males evolved under monogamy became less proficient than polygamous control males at relatively complex cognitive tasks. When faced with one receptive and several unreceptive females, polygamous males quickly focused on receptive females, whereas monogamous males continued to direct substantial courtship effort towards unreceptive females. As a result, monogamous males were less successful in this complex setting, despite being as quick to mate as their polygamous counterparts with only one receptive female. This diminished ability to use past information was not limited to the courtship context: monogamous males (but not females) also showed reduced aversive olfactory learning ability. Our results provide direct experimental evidence that the intensity of sexual selection is an important factor in the evolution of male cognitive ability.

Fluoride supplements (tablets, drops, lozenges or chewing gums) for preventing dental caries in children.

BACKGROUND: Dietary fluoride supplements were first introduced to provide systemic fluoride in areas where water fluoridation is not available. Since 1990, the use of fluoride supplements in caries prevention has been re-evaluated in several countries. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy of fluoride supplements for preventing dental caries in children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register (to 12 October 2011), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 3), MEDLINE via OVID (1950 to 12 October 2011), EMBASE via OVID (1980 to 12 October 2011), WHOLIS/PAHO/MEDCARIB/LILACS/BBO via BIREME (1982 to 12 October 2011), and Current Controlled Trials (to 12 October 2011). We handsearched reference lists of articles and contacted selected authors. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials comparing, with minimum follow-up of 2 years, fluoride supplements (tablets, drops, lozenges) with no fluoride supplement or with other preventive measures such as topical fluorides in children less than 16 years of age at the start. The main outcome was caries increment measured by the change in decayed, missing and filled tooth surfaces (DMFS). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors, independently and in duplicate, assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion, and carried out risk of bias assessment and data extraction. In the event of disagreement, we sought consensus and consulted a third review author. We contacted trial authors for missing information. We used the prevented fraction (PF) as a metric for evaluating the efficacy of the intervention. The PF is defined as the mean caries increment in controls minus mean caries increment in the treated group divided by mean caries increment in controls. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses when data could be pooled. We assessed heterogeneity in the results of the studies by examining forest plots and by using formal tests for homogeneity. We recorded adverse effects (fluorosis) when the studies provided relevant data. MAIN RESULTS: We included 11 studies in the review involving 7196 children.In permanent teeth, when fluoride supplements were compared with no fluoride supplement (three studies), the use of fluoride supplements was associated with a 24% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16 to 33%) reduction in decayed, missing and filled surfaces (D(M)FS). The effect of fluoride supplements was unclear on deciduous or primary teeth. In one study, no caries-inhibiting effect was observed on deciduous teeth while in another study, the use of fluoride supplements was associated with a substantial reduction in caries increment.When fluoride supplements were compared with topical fluorides or with other preventive measures, there was no differential effect on permanent or deciduous teeth.The review found limited information on the adverse effects associated with the use of fluoride supplements. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review suggests that the use of fluoride supplements is associated with a reduction in caries increment when compared with no fluoride supplement in permanent teeth. The effect of fluoride supplements was unclear on deciduous teeth. When compared with the administration of topical fluorides, no differential effect was observed. We rated 10 trials as being at unclear risk of bias and one at high risk of bias, and therefore the trials provide weak evidence about the efficacy of fluoride supplements.

Hydrological processes obtained on the plot scale under four simulated rainfall tests during the cycle of different crop systems

The cropping system influences the interception of water by plants, water storage in depressions on the soil surface, water infiltration into the soil and runoff. The aim of this study was to quantify some hydrological processes under no tillage cropping systems at the edge of a slope, in 2009 and 2010, in a Humic Dystrudept soil, with the following treatments: corn, soybeans, and common beans alone; and intercropped corn and common bean. Treatments consisted of four simulated rainfall tests at different times, with a planned intensity of 64 mm h-1 and 90 min duration. The first test was applied 18 days after sowing, and the others at 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. Different times of the simulated rainfall and stages of the crop cycle affected soil water content prior to the rain, and the time runoff began and its peak flow and, thus, the surface hydrological processes. The depth of the runoff and the depth of the water intercepted by the crop + soil infiltration + soil surface storage were affected by the crop systems and the rainfall applied at different times. The corn crop was the most effective treatment for controlling runoff, with a water loss ratio of 0.38, equivalent to 75 % of the water loss ratio exhibited by common bean (0.51), the least effective treatment in relation to the others. Total water loss by runoff decreased linearly with an increase in the time that runoff began, regardless of the treatment; however, soil water content on the gravimetric basis increased linearly from the beginning to the end of the rainfall.

Developmentally regulated extinction of Ly-49 receptor expression permits maturation and selection of NK1.1+ T cells.

Clonally distributed inhibitory receptors negatively regulate natural killer (NK) cell function via specific interactions with allelic forms of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules. In the mouse, the Ly-49 family of inhibitory receptors is found not only on NK cells but also on a minor (NK1.1+) T cell subset. Using Ly-49 transgenic mice, we show here that the development of NK1.1+ T cells, in contrast to NK or conventional T cells, is impaired when their Ly-49 receptors engage self-MHC class I molecules. Impaired NK1.1+ T cell development in transgenic mice is associated with a failure to select the appropriate CD1-reactive T cell receptor repertoire. In normal mice, NK1.1+ T cell maturation is accompanied by extinction of Ly-49 receptor expression. Collectively, our data imply that developmentally regulated extinction of inhibitory MHC-specific receptors is required for normal NK1.1+ T cell maturation and selection.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Red Light Running Camera Enforcement in Cedar Rapids and Developing Guidelines For Selection and use of Red Light Running Countermeasures, Midwest Transportation Consortium, Final Report November 2011.

Red light running (RLR) is a problem in the US that has resulted in 165,000 injuries and 907 fatalities annually. In Iowa, RLR-related crashes make up 24.5 percent of all crashes and account for 31.7 percent of fatal and major injury crashes at signalized intersections. RLR crashes are a safety concern due to the increased likelihood of injury compared to other types of crashes. One tool used to combat red light running is automated enforcement in the form of RLR cameras. Automated enforcement, while effective, is often controversial. Cedar Rapids, Iowa installed RLR and speeding cameras at seven intersections across the city. The intersections were chosen based on crash rates and whether cameras could feasibly be placed at the intersection approaches. The cameras were placed starting in February 2010 with the last one becoming operational in December 2010. An analysis of the effect of the cameras on safety at these intersections was determined prudent in helping to justify the installation and effectiveness of the cameras. The objective of this research was to assess the safety effectiveness of the RLR program that has been implemented in Cedar Rapids. This was accomplished by analyzing data to determine changes in the following metrics:  Reductions in red light violation rates based on overall changes, time of day changes, and changes by lane  Effectiveness of the cameras over time  Time in which those running the red light enter the intersection  Changes in the average headway between vehicles entering the intersection

Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Dark energy equation of state and anthropic selection

We explore the possibility that the dark energy is due to a potential of a scalar field and that the magnitude and the slope of this potential in our part of the Universe are largely determined by anthropic selection effects. We find that, in some models, the most probable values of the slope are very small, implying that the dark energy density stays constant to very high accuracy throughout cosmological evolution. In other models, however, the most probable values of the slope are such that the slow roll condition is only marginally satisfied, leading to a recollapse of the local universe on a time scale comparable to the lifetime of the Sun. In the latter case, the effective equation of state varies appreciably with the redshift, leading to a number of testable predictions.