Sovereign debt with adverse selection : a quantitative approach

We construct a dynamic equilibrium model to quantitatively study sovereign debt with contingent services and country risk spreads such that the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher interest rates in the future. For a wide range of parameters, the only equilibrium of the model is one in which the sovereign defaults in all states, unless defaulting incurs additional costs. Due to the adverse selection problem, some countries choose to delay default in order to reduce reputation loss. Although equilibria with no default imply in greater welfare levels, they are not sustainable in the highly indebted and volatile countries.

Existence of nash equilibrium in competitive nonlinear pricing games with adverse selection

We show that for a large class of competitive nonlinear pricing games with adverse selection, the property of better-reply security is naturally satisfied - thus, resolving via a result due to Reny (1999) the issue of existence of Nash equilibrium for a large class of competitive nonlinear pricing games.

Is what you say what you do? Analyzing and comparing the effect of buyer-supplier relationship in the Brazilian and Chinese supplier selection criteria

Choosing properly and efficiently a supplier has been challenging practitioners and academics since 1960’s. Since then, countless studies had been performed and relevant changes in the business scenario were considered such as global sourcing, quality-orientation, just-in-time practices. It is almost consensus that quality should be the selection driver, however, some polemical findings questioned this general agreement. Therefore, one of the objectives of the study was to identify the supplier selection criteria and bring this discussion back again. Moreover, Dickson (1966) suggested existing business relationship as selection criterion, then it was reviewed the importance of business relationship for the company and noted a set of potential negative effects that could rise from it. By considering these side effects of relationship, this research aimed to investigate how the relationship could influence the supplier selection and how its harmful effects could affect the selection process. The impact of this phenomenon was investigated cross-nationally. The research strategy adopted was a controlled experiment via vignette combined with discrete choice analysis. The data collections were performed in China and Brazil. By examining the results, it could be drawn five major findings. First, when purchasers were asked to declare their supplier selection priorities, quality was stated as the most important independently of country and relationship. This result was consistent with diverse studies since 60’s. However, when purchasers were exposed to a multi-criteria trade-off situation, their actual selection priorities deviate from what they had declared. In the actual decision-making without influence of buyer-supplier relationship, Brazilian purchasers focused on price and Chinese buyers prioritized delivery then price. This observation reinforced some controversial prior studies of Verma & Pullman (1998) and Hirakubo & Kublin (1998). Second, through the introduction of the buyer-supplier relationship (operationalized via relational capital) in the supplier selection process, this research extended the existing studies and found that Brazilian buyers still focused on price. The relationship became just another criterion for supplier selection such as quality and delivery. However, from the Chinese sample, the results suggested that quality was totally discarded and the decision was majorly made through price and relationship. The third finding suggested that relational capital could legitimate the quality and sustainability of the supplier and replaces these selection criteria and made the decisional task less complex. Additionally, with the relational capital, the decision-makings were associated to few biases such as availability cognition, commitment, confirmatory and perceived biases. By analyzing the purchasers’ behavior, relational capital inducted buyers of both countries to relax in their purchasing requirements (quality, delivery and sustainability) leading to potential negative effects. In the Brazilian sample, the phenomenon of willing to pay a higher price for a lower quality offer demonstrated to be a potential counterproductive and suboptimal decision. Finally, the last finding was associated to the cultural effect on the buyers’ decisions. From the outcome, it is possible to observe that if a purchaser’s cultural background is more relation-oriented, the more he will tend to use relational capital as a decision heuristic, thus, the purchaser will be more susceptible to the potential relationship’s side effects

Automatic model selection for forecasting brazilian stock returns

This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We nd that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns

This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We find that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Entry mode choice and market selection of born globals in developing countries: a multiple-case study of the ecuadorian software sector

O fenômeno "Born global" refere-se a empresas que consideram o mercado global como seu contexto natural e que iniciam seu processo de internacionalização muito cedo após sua criação. As teorias tradicionais como o modelo de Uppsala não conseguem explicar este processo. Portanto, outras teorias têm surgido, como a perspectiva de redes. Existem alguns estudos relacionados a esta área, principalmente realizados em países desenvolvidos com pequenos mercados e economias abertas. No entanto, poucos estudos têm sido feitos em economias em desenvolvimento. Além disso, o número de pesquisas quanto à escolha do modo de entrada e seleção de mercados das empresas “born global” é bastante limitado. Consequentemente, este estudo pretende descrever os principais fatores que influenciam a escolha do modo de entrada e seleção de mercados das empresas, de economias em desenvolvimento, nascidas globais. O foco da pesquisa é a indústria de software e um estudo de casos múltiplo foi realizado com três empresas no Equador. A metodologia incluiu entrevistas com fundadores, bem como a coleta de dados secundários. Com base na evidência empírica, verificou-se que os principais fatores que influenciam a escolha do modo de entrada são as restrições financeiras, as receitas esperadas, a velocidade de internacionalização, mercados nicho e a experiência empresarial anterior dos fundadores. Por outro lado, a seleção de mercado é influenciada por semelhanças de língua e cultura, mercados nicho e relações em rede.

Limited liability and non-responsiveness in moral hazard and adverse selection problems

This work analyses the optimal menu of contracts offered by a risk neutral principal to a risk averse agent under moral hazard, adverse selection and limited liability. There are two output levels, whose probability of occurrence are given by agent’s private information choice of effort. The agent’s cost of effort is also private information. First, we show that without assumptions on the cost function, it is not possible to guarantee that the optimal contract menu is simple, when the agent is strictly risk averse. Then, we provide sufficient conditions over the cost function under which it is optimal to offer a single contract, independently of agent’s risk aversion. Our full-pooling cases are caused by non-responsiveness, which is induced by the high cost of enforcing higher effort levels. Also, we show that limited liability generates non-responsiveness.

Are the preference and selection patterns of hermit crabs for gastropod shells species- or site-specific?

Experimental analyses of hermit crabs and their preferences for shells are essential to understand the intrinsic relationship of the crabs' dependence on shells, and may be useful to explain their shell use pattern in nature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of crab species and site on the pattern of shell use, selection, and preference in the south-western Atlantic hermit crabs Pagurus brevidactylus and Pagurus criniticornis, comparing sympatric and allopatric populations. Differently from the traditional approach to evaluate shell preference by simply determining the shell selection pattern (i.e., the number of shells of each type selected), preference was defined (according to [Liszka, D., Underwood, AJ., 1990. An experimental design to determine preferences for gastropod shells by a hermit-crab. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 137(1), 47-62]) by the comparison of the number of crabs changing for a particular shell type when three options were given (Cerithium atratum, Morula nodulosa, and Tegula viridula) with the number of crabs changing for this same type when only this type was offered. The effect of crab species was tested at Cabelo Gordo Beach, where P. brevidacrylus was found occupying shells of C. atratum, M. nodulosa, and T viridula in similar frequencies, whereas P. criniticornis occupied predominantly shells of C atratum. In laboratory experiments the selection patterns of the two hermit-crab species for these three gastropods were different, with P criniticornis selecting mainly shells of C atratum, and R brevidactylus selecting more shells of M. nodulosa. The shell preference was also dependent on crab species, with P. criniticornis showing a clear preference for shells of C atratum, whereas P. brevidactylus did not show a preference for any of the tested shells. The effect of site was tested for the two species comparing data from Cabelo Gordo to Preta (P brevidactylus) and Araca beaches (P. criniticornis). The pattern of shell use, selection, and preference was demonstrated to be dependent on site only for P. brevidactylus. The results also showed that the shell use pattern of P criniticornis can be explained by its preference at both sites, whereas for P. brevidactylus it occurred only at Cabelo Gordo, where the absence of preference was correlated with the similar use of the three gastropod species studied. Finally, the results showed that the shell selection pattern cannot be considered as a measure of shell preference, since it overestimates crab selectivity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization and selection of Bacillus thuringiensis isolates effective against Sitophilus oryzae

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Minimizing inter-genotypic competition effects to predict genetic values and selection in forestry genetic tests

The effect of competition is an important source of variation in breeding experiments. This study aimed to compare the selection of plants of open-pollinated families of Eucalyptus with and without the use of competition covariables. Genetic values were determined for each family and tree and for the traits height, diameter at breast height and timber volume in a randomized block design, resulting in the variance components, genetic parameters, selection gains, effective size and selection coincidence, with and without the use of covariables. Intergenotypic competition is an important factor of environmental variation. The use of competition covariables generally reduces the estimates of variance components and influences genetic gains in the studied traits. Intergenotypic competition biases the selection of open-pollinated eucalypt progenies, and can result in an erroneous choice of superior genotypes; the inclusion of covariables in the model reduces this influence.

Validation of microsatellite markers for assisted selection of soybean genotypes resistant to powdery mildew

Powdery mildew is one of the most serious diseases of soybean and is found in all producing countries. The purpose of this study was to validate microsatellite markers previously identified as associated with resistance to powdery mildew in soybean. The study was conducted in two F, parent populations with contrasting resistance to powdery mildew, In the analysis 10 SSR primers were used for the populations. and tour polymorphic markers were identified for cross I (MGBR95-20937 x IAC-Foscarin 31) and three for cross 2 (MGBR-46 x Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) 48). The Chi-square analysis of the phenotypic evaluation confirmed the expected segregation (3: 1) of a dominant gene related to resistance. The polymorphic markers also segregated as expected (1:2:1). The markers Sat 366 and Sat 393 in the crosses 1 and 2. respectively, located at 9.41 and 12.45 cM from the gene. were considered promising for marker-assisted selection for resistance to powdery mildew in soybean. at a selection efficiency of 92.7% and 60.3% respectively.

Selection of surfactant compounds to enhance the dispersion of Beauveria bassiana

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Selection and validation of reference genes for gene expression studies by reverse transcription quantitative PCR in Xanthomonas citri subsp citri during infection of Citrus sinensis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of selection criteria for pre-weaning growth traits of Nelore cattle

Genetic parameters were estimated for pre-weaning average daily gain (ADG) and number of days to gain 160 kg from birth to weaning (D 160) of Nelore cattle. Ranks of animals were compared for these traits. Heritability estimates were 0.17 and 0.10 for ADG (direct and maternal), and 0.14 and 0.09, for D 160 (direct and maternal). Rank correlations between expected breeding values (EBV) were 0.97 and 0.95, for direct and maternal effects, respectively. Despite similar heritability estimates and high rank correlations, results showed that changes in rank could happen when choosing the best animals according to EBV for D 160 or ADG. There were evidences that sires selected using D 160 would produce progeny that achieve a specified market weight at an earlier age and would be more uniform, since this criterion is calculated as a harmonic mean function. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.