Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate policies, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

Dinâmica política e política de gestão: partidos de esquerda e a adoção das parcerias com organizações sociais no Brasil 2007 a 2015

O objetivo desta Tese é compreender a atuação de partidos à esquerda do espectro político face à agenda de reformas da gestão pública. Especificamente, este estudo busca entender as motivações e interesses de governos liderados por partidos de esquerda ao expandirem e consolidarem parcerias com Organizações Sociais (OS) para provisão de serviços públicos – política voltada para a gestão pública, criticada por aqueles partidos e que contraria o interesse de parte de sua base social: o funcionalismo público. A pesquisa contribui para o debate ao intricar ao tema da gestão pública o debate político. Para alguns autores, esta é uma das principais lacunas dos estudos da área. Para atingir este objetivo foi realizado um estudo de casos múltiplos nos estados da Bahia e Pernambuco durante os governos do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) e Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB). Dentre as experiências estaduais recentes, os casos selecionados se destacam pela rápida expansão das parcerias com OS. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam que a expansão da parceria com as Organizações Sociais nos dois governos foi motivada pelas restrições orçamentárias, pela ineficiência dos equipamentos públicos e pelas características intrínsecas ao modelo, principalmente aquelas com poder de torná-lo mais ágil. A situação de grave crise setorial – saúde, nos dois casos estudados – foi fator chave para a expansão do modelo. A pesquisa também identificou que as resistências políticas foram minimizadas através da ampliação das alianças políticas e da distribuição de cargos e, para diminuir as resistências da base social dos partidos, os governos se aproximaram dos sindicatos e das categorias de classe mais afetadas por essa política de gestão.

Balance of payments dominance : its implocations for macroeconomic policy

This paper defines “balance of payments dominance” as a macroeconomic regime in which the short-term macroeconomic dynamics is essentially determined by external shocks, positive or negative. It argues that this is the predominant regime in emerging and developing countries. Trade shocks play an important role but the major procyclical shocks are associated with boom-bust cycles in external financing. Policy challenges are associated not only with the management of such shocks but also with the need to enhance the space for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, as boom-bust cycles tend to pressure macroeconomic policies to behave in a procyclical way. Under these conditions, the best bet is to design policies to reduce external vulnerabilities through a mix of administered exchange rate flexibility, very active foreign exchange reserve management, reduced reliance on external borrowing, and macroprudential regulations, including those directly affecting capital flows. Countercyclical fiscal policy can also play a role but face strong economic and political economy challenges.

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Learning in peer-to-peer markets: evidence from Airbnb

Peer-to-peer markets are highly uncertain environments due to the constant presence of shocks. As a consequence, sellers have to constantly adjust to these shocks. Dynamic Pricing is hard, especially for non-professional sellers. We study it in an accommodation rental marketplace, Airbnb. With scraped data from its website, we: 1) describe pricing patterns consistent with learning; 2) estimate a demand model and use it to simulate a dynamic pricing model. We simulate it under three scenarios: a) with learning; b) without learning; c) with full information. We have found that information is an important feature concerning rental markets. Furthermore, we have found that learning is important for hosts to improve their profits.

Capital misallocation and mitigating policies

The purpose of this work is to study the role for government in mitigating capital misallocation. We develop an entrepreneurship model in which heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints on production, but can hedge idiosyncratic shocks. Hedging works as a tool for reallocating resources to states in which they are more productively deployed, and can alleviate the effect of the financial frictions and be a counteracting force to capital misallocation. Government incentives to hedging improve workers’ welfare in steady state through an increase in TFP and wages. The intervention leads to a reduction in the rate of return of entrepreneurs and an increase in wealth dispersion. These two effects cause entrepreneurial welfare to decrease.

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Cooperação e competição entre políticas no Brasil: os cursos da governabilidade no presidencialismo da catalização

Public policies have been studied in the various fields of humanities and social sciences, from different theoretical and technical aspects. However, there is still a lack of studies that incorporate the dimension that encompasses the political action and its interference in such actions, also recognizing the importance of the institutional setting of the Brazilian presidential model in implementing these policies. This fragmented and multiparty system has led to power heterogeneous sets of political parties. Thus, the ministerial offices, more than assisting the President´s government project, manage particularized agendas, which are party biased and have the influence of interest groups in hegemonic themes addressed by government agencies. When these agendas operate in sectoral and specialized policies, the friction level is apparently low. However, when this occurs in intersectoral actions, such as in regional development, there is evidence of strong signs of competition among government agencies, which in theory, should operate in an integrated manner. Although this is not a specific feature of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva´s government- the period to be studied- there was similar behavior in Fernando Henrique Cardoso´s presidency, one realizes that the expansion of coalition on behalf of governance is increasingly interfering in the outcome of intersectoral public policies, due to these multiple arguments in action. In order to understand these processes, this study focused on the Sustainable and Integrated Development Programme for Differentiated Meso-Regions (PROMESO), part of the National Policy for Regional Development (NPRD). The program provides interface with various government agencies and their public policies in a clear intersectoral design. The research sought to identify and analyze the relationships between government agencies and their programs with interest groups, whether political parties or other segments of civil society, highlighting the logic of favoritism, which poses in second place the integration of actions in the intersectoral policies. Therefore, besides the theoretical debate that incorporates several categories of political science, public administration, public policy, geography and economics, the study focused on secondary sources, using different government agencies databases in order to raise information. It was observed that the interference of partisan politics has been disastrous for some public policies. Thus, the research confirms that cooperative character is fragile within government agencies, often limited to official documents, and that there is indeed, a striking feature of competition, especially when it comes to transversalized policies

Plano setorial: a construção de estratégias para implementação do plano diretor de Natal

The Sectoral Plan was inserted as an urban instrument in Master Plan of Natal (LC82/07), since then it has been deepened. It is guided to the equitable distribution of the benefits of urbanization, aimed the efetivation of the Right to the City and the Environmental function of property in the context of urban planning. Thereby, the Sectoral Plan was inserted into the perspective of promoting a favorable field for applying articulated of instruments defined in the Master Plan, and them with urban interventions, through the deepening of macrozoning - coming out of dimension of the city and going to a small fraction of the urban by reducing scaling - facilitating democratic management in accordance with the City Statute. However, the absence of regulation and the conceptual and operational fragility of the instrument, approached it of other existent experiences and instruments, limiting its application and evaluation. Considering the innovative nature of the instrument and the intense social participation, we inquire about conceptual and operational elements which could give greater effectiveness to Sector Plan in construction? Guided by that question, this dissertation aim to understand the nature and operational procedures of Sectoral Plan, seeking to do indications about the conceptual and operational aspects of implementing a Sector Plan. The neighborhood of Ponta Negra was selected as empirical universe because it was the first sector defined in the Master Plan. This research adopts reference authors who´s make reflection and insights about the matrix of Urban Reform, whose principles constitute the basis of the trajectory of revision of urban planning in Brazil since the 1980s, highlighting Raquel Rolnik, Nelson Saule Júnior and Orlando Alves dos Santos Júnior. For the local monitoring, we use the authors Alexsandro Ferreira Cardoso Silva, Rosa Maria Pinheiro Oliveira e Marise Costa da Souza Duarte, in order to understand the growth dynamics of Natal, lawfully and urbanistically

Representações sociais sobre a prática do cuidado para enfermeiros da saúde indígena: um estudo transcultural

The desire to research on this subject arisen from the experience as nursing in the indigenous health, where I observed that many professionals from all regions of Brazil chose to work within this zone. It was notorious the nurse s difficult to settle in only one place for a long length of time. Probably due to health care in indigenous zones happens from a cultural confront. This confront materialize because both sides are imbued with their own culture: in one hand the nurse professional with its scientific knownledgment on the other the indigenous with their rituals and peculiars habits. In this context nurses should delineate and negotiate the reality through symbolic representations of life, and then make questions on the new reality. In this way, this study set out with the aim of apprehends the nurse s social representations of transcultural care in indigenous health. This knownledgment is important to avoid possible conflicts, shocks, difficulties and health care incongruence within this context. The data collect was carried out on a range of non structured interview guided by a pre-elaborated questionnaire with four questions and a hand drawing related to nurse s health care in the indigenous health. This research had a sample of 17 nurses from the Indigenous Sanitary District of Manaus in the Amazon State. To interpret data we used the Discourse of the Collective Subject, which findings were presented in three chapters: characterization of participants, discussion on themes prevalent in discourse; social representation of nursing care through infographics. The analysis revealed that the care in the indigenous health is challenging because the native people imbued in its world are perceived and processed according to the nurse s cultural lens, leading to materialize of some strangeness and adaptation difficulties, especially in the first contacts. The Social Representation on nursing practice, in many cases, is projected and contrived on the basis of scattered believes and on perception derived from common sense. The findings shows that representions are essential to mitigating the initial strangeness and help nurses to better situate themselves in the new universe. The nurse s practice in the indigenous health care should merge into each other. From the Social Representations is possible to perceive that assimilation, also comprehension on indigenous health system and its traditional knowledge are important to developing strategies to improve access and quality of care for indigenous peoples. After analysis the nurse s discourses and drawings, it is possible to represent the nurse s practice in the indigenous health as anthropophagism, since nurses should literally consuming its patients culture, digesting it and seize it as means to provide culturally congruent care. We highlight the urgent need for preparation and training of professionals to work more effectively with indigenous peoples

Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

A fully adaptive multiresolution scheme for shock computations

The scheme is based on Ami Harten's ideas (Harten, 1994), the main tools coming from wavelet theory, in the framework of multiresolution analysis for cell averages. But instead of evolving cell averages on the finest uniform level, we propose to evolve just the cell averages on the grid determined by the significant wavelet coefficients. Typically, there are few cells in each time step, big cells on smooth regions, and smaller ones close to irregularities of the solution. For the numerical flux, we use a simple uniform central finite difference scheme, adapted to the size of each cell. If any of the required neighboring cell averages is not present, it is interpolated from coarser scales. But we switch to ENO scheme in the finest part of the grids. To show the feasibility and efficiency of the method, it is applied to a system arising in polymer-flooding of an oil reservoir. In terms of CPU time and memory requirements, it outperforms Harten's multiresolution algorithm.The proposed method applies to systems of conservation laws in 1Dpartial derivative(t)u(x, t) + partial derivative(x)f(u(x, t)) = 0, u(x, t) is an element of R-m. (1)In the spirit of finite volume methods, we shall consider the explicit schemeupsilon(mu)(n+1) = upsilon(mu)(n) - Deltat/hmu ((f) over bar (mu) - (f) over bar (mu)-) = [Dupsilon(n)](mu), (2)where mu is a point of an irregular grid Gamma, mu(-) is the left neighbor of A in Gamma, upsilon(mu)(n) approximate to 1/mu-mu(-) integral(mu-)(mu) u(x, t(n))dx are approximated cell averages of the solution, (f) over bar (mu) = (f) over bar (mu)(upsilon(n)) are the numerical fluxes, and D is the numerical evolution operator of the scheme.According to the definition of (f) over bar (mu), several schemes of this type have been proposed and successfully applied (LeVeque, 1990). Godunov, Lax-Wendroff, and ENO are some of the popular names. Godunov scheme resolves well the shocks, but accuracy (of first order) is poor in smooth regions. Lax-Wendroff is of second order, but produces dangerous oscillations close to shocks. ENO schemes are good alternatives, with high order and without serious oscillations. But the price is high computational cost.Ami Harten proposed in (Harten, 1994) a simple strategy to save expensive ENO flux calculations. The basic tools come from multiresolution analysis for cell averages on uniform grids, and the principle is that wavelet coefficients can be used for the characterization of local smoothness.. Typically, only few wavelet coefficients are significant. At the finest level, they indicate discontinuity points, where ENO numerical fluxes are computed exactly. Elsewhere, cheaper fluxes can be safely used, or just interpolated from coarser scales. Different applications of this principle have been explored by several authors, see for example (G-Muller and Muller, 1998).Our scheme also uses Ami Harten's ideas. But instead of evolving the cell averages on the finest uniform level, we propose to evolve the cell averages on sparse grids associated with the significant wavelet coefficients. This means that the total number of cells is small, with big cells in smooth regions and smaller ones close to irregularities. This task requires improved new tools, which are described next.

Assessment of a high-order finite difference upwind scheme for the simulation of convection-diffusion problems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Câncer de mama: vivência das usuárias dos serviços prestados pela Liga Norte Riograndense Contra o Câncer

This study is about the users' experiences of the services offered by League Against Câncer that are in treatment of breast cancer, focusing on how the health/illness process develops. It is distinguished, in this context, the National Politics of Health, approaching the sprouting, implantation and consolidation process of the Unified Health System and its shocks on the installment of health services to the low-income population as a legit right from Citizen Constitution. It has as an objective to analyze how the social-economic extract of these women intervenes with such process, the aspects who involve the cancer while a pathology, approaching the signals, symptoms, forms of prevention, diagnosis, among other aspects that configure themselves as important points to the understanding of these experiences, since the diagnosis, treatment and control phases. The research was carried out with 25 women, between the months of January and February of year of 2005. The used technique was the scriptstructured interview, whose universe was defined through intentional sample. The following distinguishes as a result of the research: The majority of the women has its origins on the interior of the state, possesses a familiar income from one to three minimum wages and didn't make any kind of prevention before diagnosis, currently make treatment, beyond other aspects. It becomes necessary posterior studies on this social problematic, with respect to the personal, professional, familiar and social daily behavior of these women. It is worth mentioning that the role of the social assistant in the developed work with these women, understanding all the impediments associated with such experiences, as well as giving information about the rights of the patients with cancer, conquered through the years

Competitividade de destinos turísticos e o imperativo sustentável: avaliação de dimensões e atributos condicionantes no Pólo Costa das Dunas, RN, Brasil

Being available as a tourist destination is a necessary condition but not enough for the expansion and success of tourism activity. To be successful, tourism requires investment, inputs, appropriate planning and management, like any other economic activity. A fundamental goal of the destination management is to understand how the competitiveness of a tourist destination can be improved and sustained. Competitive position of tourism can be measured and assessed by various models. Evaluating the indicators of competitiveness of a tourist destination involves a multivariate analysis, ranging from issues directly related to tourism activity itself to the indirect factors. These are elements that are interrelated and that together will point out the competitive condition of this destination. From the definition and characterization of competitiveness, sustainability and management in the context of tourist destinations, understood as the main concepts of this study, we present the main theoretical and methodological models of assessment of competitiveness of tourist destinations in the literature and represent the state of the issue in the scientific treatment of the subject. These models, designed by researchers from several countries and applied in different tourist destinations, are confronted about their structure, indicators considered and localities in which they were applied. The aim of this study was to know and evaluate the condition of tourist competitiveness of the destination Pólo Costa das Dunas, from the constraints attributes of superior performance of the evaluation model of tourist competitiveness of destinations Competenible, suggested by Mazaro, and that suit the requirements of international market aware of the strength and importance of sustainability. The condition of competitiveness of tourist destination in Rio Grande do Norte Pólo Costa das Dunas was moderate. The competitive strengths and weaknesses of the destination Pólo Costa das Dunas revealed through the dozens of sustainable attributes of the model Competenible showed guidelines and initiatives that can be taken to guide strategic decisions related to their planning and management. Thus, this study should serve as support for strategic planning and long-term management of the sector and as a crucial tool for making decisions related to public policies, sectoral investments, monitor processes, strategic planning, direction and control of the local and regional tourism development of destinations