A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Production of pH-responsive microparticles by spray drying: investigation of experimental parameter effects on morphological and release properties

During spray drying, emphasis is placed on process optimisation to generate favourable particle morphological and flow properties. The effect of the initial feed solution composition on the drug release from the prepared microparticles is rarely considered. We investigated the effects of solvent composition, feed solution concentration and drug-loading on sodium salicylate, hydrocortisone and triamcinolone release from spray dried Eudragit L100 microparticles. Eudragit L100 is a pH-responsive polymer whose dissolution threshold is pH 6 so dissolution testing of the prepared microparticles at pH 5 and 1.2 illustrated non-polymer controlled burst release. Increasing the water content of the initial ethanolic feed solution significantly reduced hydrocortisone burst release at pH 5, as did reducing the feed solution concentration. These findings caution that changes in feed solution concentration or solvent composition not only affect particles’ morphological characteristics but can also negatively alter their drug release properties. This work also illustrate that drug-free microparticles can have different morphological properties to drug-loaded microparticles. Therefore, process optimisation needs to be carried out using drug-loaded systems. Depending on the physicochemical properties of the encapsulated API, drug-loading can affect the polymer solubility in the initial feed solution with consequent impact on microparticles morphological and release properties.

Regime dependent changes in global precipitation

Assessment of changes in precipitation (P) as a function of percentiles of surface temperature (T) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (ω) are presented, considering present-day simulations and observational estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA Interim). There is a tendency for models to overestimate P in the warm, subsiding regimes compared to GPCP, in some cases by more than 100%, while many models underestimate P in the moderate temperature regimes. Considering climate change projections between 1980–1999 and 2080–2099, responses in P are characterised by dP/dT ≥ 4%/K over the coldest 10–20% of land points and over warm, ascending ocean points while P declines over the warmest, descending regimes (dP/dT ∼ − 4%/K for model ensemble means). The reduced Walker circulation limits this contrasting dP/dT response in the tropical wet and dry regimes only marginally. Around 70% of the global surface area exhibits a consistent sign for dP/dT in at least 6 out of a 7-member model ensemble when considering P composites in terms of dynamic regime.

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.

Effect of drying methods on the phenolic constituents of meadowsweet (Filipendula ulmaria) and willow (Salix alba)

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of drying conditions on the phenolic constituents and colour of extracts of organically grown white willow and meadowsweet for incorporation into a functional beverage with potential anti-inflammatory properties. The herbs were freeze-dried, air-dried, oven or tray-dried at 30 or 70 °C. The drying kinetics of the herbs was first determined. Both drying temperature and method had a significant effect (p ≤ 0.05) on the drying rate, the samples tray-dried had a faster drying rate than those oven-dried. Results show that for meadowsweet and willow, freeze-drying and oven or tray drying at 30 °C had no significant effect on the phenolic constituents (e.g. total phenols, salicylates, quercetin) or the colour of the extracts in comparison to traditional air-drying. Although increasing the drying temperature to 70 °C resulted in an increase in the drying rate of both herbs it also led to the loss of some phenolic compounds. Also, the extracts from both herbs dried at 70 °C were significantly (p ≤ 0.05) redder than the other drying methods. Therefore, tray drying these herbs at low temperatures may reduce drying time without having a significant effect on the phenolic content and colour of the extracts.

From apotheosis to damnation: Mussolini and the Fascist regime, 1936-45

This is an essay for a catalogue of the exhibition 'Against Mussolini: art and the fall of a dictator' held at the Estorick Collection, London, September - December 2010. The essay examines shifting attitudes towards Mussolini in the years immediately preceding his fall, and suggests that the development of 'anti-fascism' was less pronounced than often suggested.