On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

Whole brain radiotherapy with a conformational external beam radiation boost for lung cancer patients with 1-3 brain metastasis: a multi institutional study.

BACKGROUND: To determine the outcome of patients with brain metastasis (BM) from lung cancer treated with an external beam radiotherapy boost (RTB) after whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). METHODS: A total of 53 BM patients with lung cancer were treated sequentially with WBRT and RTB between 1996 and 2008 according to our institutional protocol. Mean age was 58.8 years. The median KPS was 90. Median recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and graded prognostic assessment (GPA) grouping were 2 and 2.5, respectively. Surgery was performed on 38 (71%) patients. The median number of BM was 1 (range, 1-3). Median WBRT and RTB combined dose was 39 Gy (range, 37.5-54). Median follow-up was 12.0 months. RESULTS: During the period of follow-up, 37 (70%) patients died. The median overall survival (OS) was 14.5 months. Only 13 patients failed in the brain. The majority of patients (n = 29) failed distantly. The 1-year OS, -local control, extracranial failure rates were 61.2%, 75.2% and 60.8%, respectively. On univariate analysis, improved OS was found to be significantly associated with total dose (< or = 39 Gy vs. > 39 Gy; p < 0.01), age < 65 (p < 0.01), absence of extracranial metastasis (p < 0.01), GPA > or = 2.5 (p = 0.01), KPS > or = 90 (p = 0.01), and RPA < 2 (p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, total dose (p < 0.01) and the absence of extracranial metastasis (p = 0.03) retained statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of lung cancer patients treated with WBRT and RTB progressed extracranially. There might be a subgroup of younger patients with good performance status and no extracranial disease who may benefit from dose escalation after WBRT to the metastatic site.

External technology sources: Embodied or disembodied technology acquisition

This paper analyzes the choice between different innovationactivities of a firm. In particular, we study the technologyacquisition decision of the firm, i.e. its technology BUYdecision as part of the firm's innovation strategy. We take a closer look at the different types of external technologyacquisition where we distinguish two broad types of technologybuy decisions. On the one hand, the firm can acquire new technology which is embodied in an asset that is acquired suchas new personnel or (parts of) other firms or equipment. On the other hand, the firm can obtain new technology disembodiedthrough a licensing agreement or by outsourcing the technologydevelopment from an R&D contractor or consulting agency. Through a series of Probit regressions, we discuss variables that might affect external technology acquisition choices of the firm andpay special attention to the firm's abilities to scan the market for technology and to absorb the technology acquired. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of different appropriationregimes on the decision of the firm to source technology.

The Effect of Amifostine on Acute and Late Radiation Side Effects in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Objective: We aimed to investigate the effect of amifostine on acute and late side effects, and its tolerability in head and neck cancer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). Material and Methods: The study included 87 patients with primary head and neck cancers and cervical lymph node metastases from unknown primary cancers treated with RT alone or combined with chemotherapy (CT). Forty-one patients (47%) received amifostine combined with RT (ART group) and 46 patients (52%) received RT without amifostine (RT group). The patients were evaluated every week during the treatment and at month 1 and 2 after the completion of RT for acute side effects and month 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 after the treatment for late side effects according to SOMA/LENT scale. Amifostine was administered prior to RT, along with anti-emetic prophylaxis. The two groups were compared with the Student's t and Mann-Whitney U and Chi-square tests. Results: The ART group had significantly less toxicity (grade! 1 mucositis, grade 2 fibrosis) than patients in the RT group (p=0.001, p=0.03, respectively). At week 3 of RT grade 2 mucositis developed in two patients (5%) in the ART group and 10 patients (22%) in the RT group (p=0.02). The protective effect of amifostine on skin reactions developed at week 4 of RT (p=0.05). Grade 3 xerostomia at 9, 12, and 15 months of follow-up (p=0.02, p=0.02, and p=0.02, respectively), grade 2 xerostomia at 18 and 24 months (p=0.02 and p=0.01, respectively) and fibrosis at 15, 18 and 24 months (p=0.05, p=0.02 and p=0.02, respectively) decreased markedly in the ART group compared with the RT group. Emesis was the most common adverse effect of amifostine. Conclusion: Daily administration of amifostine during RT was effective in avoiding late grade 2-3 xerostomia, as well as grade 2 fibrosis.

Radiothérapie externe accélérée postopératoire des carcinomes épidermoïdes localement évolués de la sphère ORL: étude prospective de phase II [Prospective study of accelerated postoperative radiation therapy in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck]

PURPOSE: To assess the feasibility and efficacy of accelerated postoperative radiation therapy (RT) in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between December 1997 and July 2001, 68 patients (male to female ratio: 52/16; median age: 60-years (range: 43-81) with pT1-pT4 and/or pN0-pN3 SCCHN (24 oropharynx, 19 oral cavity, 13 hypopharynx, 5 larynx, 3 unknown primary, 2 maxillary sinus, and 2 salivary gland) were included in this prospective study. Postoperative RT was indicated because extracapsular infiltration (ECI) was observed in 20 (29%), positive surgical margins (PSM) in 20 (29%) or both in 23 patients (34%). Treatment consisted of external beam RT 66 Gy in 5 weeks and 3 days. Median follow-up was 15 months. RESULTS: According to CTC 2.0, acute morbidity was acceptable: grade 3 mucositis was observed in 15 (22%) patients, grade 3 dysphagia in 19 (28%) patients, grade 3 skin erythema in 21 (31%) patients with a median weight loss of 3.1 kg (range: 0-16). No grade 4 toxicity was observed. Median time to relapse was 13 months; we observed only three (4%) local and four (6%) regional relapses, whereas eight (12%) patients developed distant metastases without any evidence of locoregional recurrence. The 2 years overall-, disease-free survival, and actuarial locoregional control rates were 85, 73 and 83% respectively. CONCLUSION: The reduction of the overall treatment time using postoperative accelerated RT with weekly concomitant boost (six fractions per week) is feasible with local control rates comparable to that of published data. Acute RT-related morbidity is acceptable.

Low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers for the investigation of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) point sources in rivers

This study aims to provide a passive sampling approach which can be routinely used to investigate polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) sources in rivers. The approach consists of deploying low density polyethylene (LDPE) strips downstream and upstream of potential PCB sources as well as in their water discharges. Concentrations of indicator PCBs (iPCBs) absorbed in samplers (Cs) from upstream and downstream sites are compared with each other to reveal increases of PCB levels. Cs measured in water discharges are used to determine if released amounts of PCBs are compatible with increases revealed in the river. As water velocity can greatly vary along a river stretch and influences the uptake at each site in a different way, differences in velocity have to be taken into account to correctly interpret Cs. LDPE strips were exposed to velocities between 1.6 and 37 cm s−1 using a channel system built in the field. Relationships between velocity and Cs were established for each iPCB to determine the expected change in Cs due to velocity variations. For PCBs 28 and 52, this change does not exceed a factor 2 for velocity variations in the range from 1.6 to 100 cm s−1 (extrapolated data above 37 cm s−1). For PCBs 101, 138, 153 and 180, this change only exceeds a factor 2 in the case of large velocity variations. The approach was applied in the Swiss river Venoge to first conduct a primary investigation of potential PCB sources and then conduct thorough investigations of two suspected sources.

Intensity modulated radiation therapy or stereotactic fractionated radiotherapy for infratentorial ependymoma in children: a multicentric study.

This study was to evaluate the treatment dosimetry, efficacy and toxicity of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) in the management of infratentorial ependymoma. Between 1999 and 2007, seven children (median age, 3.1 years) with infratentorial ependymoma were planned with either IMRT (3 patients) or SFRT (4 patients), the latter after conventional posterior fossa irradiation. Two children underwent gross total resection. Median prescribed dose was 59.4 Gy (range, 55.8-60). The median follow-up for surviving patients was 4.8 years (range, 1.3-8). IMRT (median dose, 59.4 Gy) and FSRT (median dose, 55.8 Gy) achieved similar optimal target coverage. Percentages of maximum doses delivered to the cochleae (59.5 vs 85.0% Gy; P = 0.05) were significantly inferior with IMRT, when compared to FSRT planning. Percentages of maximum doses administered to the pituitary gland (38.2 vs 20.1%; P = 0.05) and optic chiasm (38.1 vs 14.1%; P = 0.001) were, however, significantly higher with IMRT, when compared to FSRT planning. No recurrences were observed at the last follow-up. The estimated 3-year progression-free survival and overall survival were 87.5 and 100%, respectively. No grade >1 acute toxicity was observed. Two patients presented late adverse events (grade 2 hypoacousia) during follow-up, without cognitive impairment. IMRT or FSRT for infratentorial ependymomas is effective and associated with a tolerable toxicity level. Both treatment techniques were able to capitalize their intrinsic conformal ability to deliver high-dose radiation. Larger series of patients treated with these two modalities will be necessary to more fully evaluate these delivery techniques.

Empirical studies of cloud effects on UV radiation: A review

The interest in solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the scientific community and the general population has risen significantly in recent years because of the link between increased UV levels at the Earth's surface and depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. As a consequence of recent research, UV radiation climatologies have been developed, and effects of some atmospheric constituents (such as ozone or aerosols) have been studied broadly. Correspondingly, there are well-established relationships between, for example, total ozone column and UV radiation levels at the Earth's surface. Effects of clouds, however, are not so well described, given the intrinsic difficulties in properly describing cloud characteristics. Nevertheless, the effect of clouds cannot be neglected, and the variability that clouds induce on UV radiation is particularly significant when short timescales are involved. In this review we show, summarize, and compare several works that deal with the effect of clouds on UV radiation. Specifically, works reviewed here approach the issue from the empirical point of view: Some relationship between measured UV radiation in cloudy conditions and cloud-related information is given in each work. Basically, there are two groups of methods: techniques that are based on observations of cloudiness (either from human observers or by using devices such as sky cameras) and techniques that use measurements of broadband solar radiation as a surrogate for cloud observations. Some techniques combine both types of information. Comparison of results from different works is addressed through using the cloud modification factor (CMF) defined as the ratio between measured UV radiation in a cloudy sky and calculated radiation for a cloudless sky. Typical CMF values for overcast skies range from 0.3 to 0.7, depending both on cloud type and characteristics. Despite this large dispersion of values corresponding to the same cloud cover, it is clear that the cloud effect on UV radiation is 15–45% lower than the cloud effect on total solar radiation. The cloud effect is usually a reducing effect, but a significant number of works report an enhancement effect (that is increased UV radiation levels at the surface) due to the presence of clouds. The review concludes with some recommendations for future studies aimed to further analyze the cloud effects on UV radiation