Previsão de demanda de cargas elétricas por seleção de variáveis stepwise e redes neurais artificiais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

The effects of increased endurance training load on biomarkers of heat intolerance during intense exercise in the heat

The effects of increased training (IT) load on plasma concentrations of lipopolysaccharides (LPS), proinflammatory cytokines, and anti-LPS antibodies during exercise in the heat were investigated in 18 male runners, who performed 14 days of normal training (NT) or 14 days of 20% IT load in 2 equal groups. Before (trial 1) and after (trial 2) the training intervention, all subjects ran at 70% maximum oxygen uptake on a treadmill under hot (35 degrees C) and humid (similar to 40%) conditions, until core temperature reached 39.5 degrees C or volitional exhaustion. Venous blood samples were drawn before, after, and 1.5 h after exercise. Plasma LPS concentration after exercise increased by 71% (trial 1, p < 0.05) and 21% (trial 2) in the NT group and by 92% (trial 1, p < 0.01) and 199% (trial 2, p < 0.01) in the IT group. Postintervention plasma LPS concentration was 35% lower before exercise (p < 0.05) and 47% lower during recovery (p < 0.01) in the IT than in the NT group. Anti-LPS IgM concentration during recovery was 35% lower in the IT than in the NT group (p < 0.05). Plasma interleukin (IL)-6 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha concentrations after exercise (IL-6, 3-7 times, p < 0.01, and TNF-alpha, 33%, p < 0.01) and during recovery (IL-6, 2-4 times, p < 0.05, and TNF-alpha, 30%, p < 0.01) were higher than at rest within each group. These data suggest that a short-term tolerable increase in training load may protect against developing endotoxemia during exercise in the heat.

Reduction in resting plasma granulysin as a marker of increased training load

Granulysin is a cytolytic granule protein released by natural killer cells and activated cytotoxic T lymphocytes. The influence of exercise training on circulating granulysin concentration is unknown, as is the relationship between granulysin concentration, natural killer cell number and natural killer cell cytotoxicity. We examined changes in plasma granulysin concentration, natural killer cell number and cytotoxicity following acute exercise and different training loads. Fifteen highly trained male cyclists completed a baseline 40-km cycle time trial (TT401) followed by five weeks of normal training and a repeat time trial (TT402). The cyclists then completed four days of high intensity training followed by another time trial (TT403) on day five. Following one final week of normal training cyclists completed another time trial (TT404). Fasting venous blood was collected before and after each time trial to determine granulysin concentration, natural killer cell number and natural killer cell cytotoxicity. Granulysin concentration increased significantly after each time trial (P<0.001). Pre-exercise granulysin concentration for TT403 was significantly lower than pre-exercise concentration for TT401 (-20.3 +/- 7.5%, P<0.026), TT402 (-16.7 +/- 4.3%, P<0.003) and 7T404 (-21 +/- 4.2%, P<0.001). Circulating natural killer cell numbers also increased significantly post-exercise for each time trial (P<0.001), however there was no significant difference across TT40 (P>0.05). Exercise did not significantly alter natural killer cell cytotoxicity on a per cell basis, and there were no significant differences between the four time trials. In conclusion, plasma granulysin concentration increases following moderate duration, strenuous exercise and is decreased in response to a short-term period of intensified training.

Short and long term mortality rates after a lower limb amputation

Objective To determine mortality rates after a first lower limb amputation and explore the rates for different subpopulations. Methods Retrospective cohort study of all people who underwent a first amputation at or proximal to transtibial level, in an area of 1.7 million people. Analysis with Kaplan-Meier curves and Log Rank tests for univariate associations of psycho-social and health variables. Logistic regression for odds of death at 30-days, 1-year and 5-years. Results 299 people were included. Median time to death was 20.3 months (95%CI: 13.1; 27.5). 30-day mortality = 22%; odds of death 2.3 times higher in people with history of cerebrovascular disease (95%CI: 1.2; 4.7, P = 0.016). 1 year mortality = 44%; odds of death 3.5 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 7.0, P < 0.001). 5-years mortality = 77%; odds of death 5.4 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 16.0,P = 0.003). Variation in mortality rates was most apparent in different age groups; people 75–84 years having better short term outcomes than those younger and older. Conclusions Mortality rates demonstrated the frailty of this population, with almost one quarter of people dying within 30-days, and almost half at 1 year. People with cerebrovascular had higher odds of death at 30 days, and those with renal disease and 1 and 5 years, respectively.

Short- and long-term changes in joint co-contraction associated with motor learning as revealed from surface EMG.

In the field of motor control, two hypotheses have been controversial: whether the brain acquires internal models that generate accurate motor commands, or whether the brain avoids this by using the viscoelasticity of musculoskeletal system. Recent observations on relatively low stiffness during trained movements support the existence of internal models. However, no study has revealed the decrease in viscoelasticity associated with learning that would imply improvement of internal models as well as synergy between the two hypothetical mechanisms. Previously observed decreases in electromyogram (EMG) might have other explanations, such as trajectory modifications that reduce joint torques. To circumvent such complications, we required strict trajectory control and examined only successful trials having identical trajectory and torque profiles. Subjects were asked to perform a hand movement in unison with a target moving along a specified and unusual trajectory, with shoulder and elbow in the horizontal plane at the shoulder level. To evaluate joint viscoelasticity during the learning of this movement, we proposed an index of muscle co-contraction around the joint (IMCJ). The IMCJ was defined as the summation of the absolute values of antagonistic muscle torques around the joint and computed from the linear relation between surface EMG and joint torque. The IMCJ during isometric contraction, as well as during movements, was confirmed to correlate well with joint stiffness estimated using the conventional method, i.e., applying mechanical perturbations. Accordingly, the IMCJ during the learning of the movement was computed for each joint of each trial using estimated EMG-torque relationship. At the same time, the performance error for each trial was specified as the root mean square of the distance between the target and hand at each time step over the entire trajectory. The time-series data of IMCJ and performance error were decomposed into long-term components that showed decreases in IMCJ in accordance with learning with little change in the trajectory and short-term interactions between the IMCJ and performance error. A cross-correlation analysis and impulse responses both suggested that higher IMCJs follow poor performances, and lower IMCJs follow good performances within a few successive trials. Our results support the hypothesis that viscoelasticity contributes more when internal models are inaccurate, while internal models contribute more after the completion of learning. It is demonstrated that the CNS regulates viscoelasticity on a short- and long-term basis depending on performance error and finally acquires smooth and accurate movements while maintaining stability during the entire learning process.

Load Testing of Floor Slabs in a Full-Scale Reinforced Concrete Building

A series of short and long term service load tests were undertaken on the sixth floor of the full-scale, seven storey, reinforced concrete building at the Large Building Test Facility of the Building Research Establishment at Cardington. By using internally strain gauged reinforcing bars cast into an internal and external floor bay during the construction process it was possible to gain a detailed record of slab strains resulting from the application of several arrangements of test loads. Short term tests were conducted in December 1998 and long term monitoring then ensued until April 2001. This paper describes the test programmes and presents results to indicate slab behaviour for the various loading regimes.

Optimization models for a short sea fuel oil distribution problem

O transporte marítimo e o principal meio de transporte de mercadorias em todo o mundo. Combustíveis e produtos petrolíferos representam grande parte das mercadorias transportadas por via marítima. Sendo Cabo Verde um arquipelago o transporte por mar desempenha um papel de grande relevância na economia do país. Consideramos o problema da distribuicao de combustíveis em Cabo Verde, onde uma companhia e responsavel por coordenar a distribuicao de produtos petrolíferos com a gestão dos respetivos níveis armazenados em cada porto, de modo a satisfazer a procura dos varios produtos. O objetivo consiste em determinar políticas de distribuicão de combustíveis que minimizam o custo total de distribuiçao (transporte e operacões) enquanto os n íveis de armazenamento sao mantidos nos n íveis desejados. Por conveniencia, de acordo com o planeamento temporal, o prob¬lema e divido em dois sub-problemas interligados. Um de curto prazo e outro de medio prazo. Para o problema de curto prazo sao discutidos modelos matemáticos de programacao inteira mista, que consideram simultaneamente uma medicao temporal cont ínua e uma discreta de modo a modelar multiplas janelas temporais e taxas de consumo que variam diariamente. Os modelos sao fortalecidos com a inclusão de desigualdades validas. O problema e então resolvido usando um "software" comercial. Para o problema de medio prazo sao inicialmente discutidos e comparados varios modelos de programacao inteira mista para um horizonte temporal curto assumindo agora uma taxa de consumo constante, e sao introduzidas novas desigualdades validas. Com base no modelo escolhido sao compara¬das estrategias heurísticas que combinam três heur ísticas bem conhecidas: "Rolling Horizon", "Feasibility Pump" e "Local Branching", de modo a gerar boas soluçoes admissíveis para planeamentos com horizontes temporais de varios meses. Finalmente, de modo a lidar com situaçoes imprevistas, mas impor¬tantes no transporte marítimo, como as mas condicões meteorológicas e congestionamento dos portos, apresentamos um modelo estocastico para um problema de curto prazo, onde os tempos de viagens e os tempos de espera nos portos sao aleatórios. O problema e formulado como um modelo em duas etapas, onde na primeira etapa sao tomadas as decisões relativas as rotas do navio e quantidades a carregar e descarregar e na segunda etapa (designada por sub-problema) sao consideradas as decisoes (com recurso) relativas ao escalonamento das operacões. O problema e resolvido por um metodo de decomposto que usa um algoritmo eficiente para separar as desigualdades violadas no sub-problema.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression - 1. Impact on maternal mood!

Background: Psychological interventions for postnatal depression can be beneficial in the short term but their longer-term impact is unknown, Aims To evaluate the long-term effect on maternal mood of three psychological treatments in relation to routine primary care. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193)were assigned randomly to one of four conditions: routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy. They were assessed immediately after the treatment phase (at 4.5 months) and at 18 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Compared with the control, ail three treatments had a significant impact at 4.5 months on maternal mood (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS). Only psychodynamic therapy produced a rate of reduction in depression (Structured Clinical interview for DSM III-R) significantly superior to that of the control. The benefit of treatment was no longer apparent by 9 months postpartum, treatment did not reduce subsequent episodes of post-partum depression. Conclusions: Psychological intervention for post-partum depression improves maternal mood (EPDS) in the short term. However, this benefit is not superior to spontaneous remission in the long term.

Lymphocyte and Cytokines after Short Periods of Exercise

The purpose of this study was to verify the effects of short periods of exercise of different intensity on lymphocyte function and cytokines. Thirty Wistar rats, 2 months old, were used. They were divided into five groups of six rats: a sedentary control group; a group exercised for 5 minutes at low intensity (5 L): a group exercised for 15 minutes at low intensity (15 L); and groups exercised at moderate intensity (additional load of 5% of body weight) for 5 minutes (5 M) or for 15 minutes (15 M). The parameters measured were: total leukocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, lymphocytes from lymph nodes, serum cytokines (IL-2, IL-6 and TNF-alpha), lymphocyte mitochondrial transmembrane potential, viability and DNA fragmentation. ANOVA two way followed by Tukey`s post hoc test (p <= 0.05) was used. The exercised groups exhibited a significant increase in total leukocytes, tissue and circulating lymphocytes in comparison with the control group. There was a significant decrease in lymphocyte viability and decrease in DNA fragmentation for the 15 M group when compared with the control. There was a decrease in the level TNF-alpha in the 5 M and 15 M groups. Short-term, low- and moderate-intensity exercise may be considered for sedentary individuals beginning to exercise, since no deleterious alterations were observed in lymphocyte function.

Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

Electrical load forecasting formulation by a fast neural network

The objective of this work is to develop a methodology for electric load forecasting based on a neural network. Here, backpropagation algorithm is used with an adaptive process that based on fuzzy logic and using a decaying exponential function to avoid instability in the convergence process. This methodology results in fast training, when compared to the conventional formulation of backpropagation algorithm. The results are presented using data from a Brazilian Electric Company, and shows a very good performance for the proposal objective.

Multinodal Load Forecasting in Power Electric Systems using a Neural Network with Radial Basis Function

In this paper we present the results of the use of a methodology for multinodal load forecasting through an artificial neural network-type Multilayer Perceptron, making use of radial basis functions as activation function and the Backpropagation algorithm, as an algorithm to train the network. This methodology allows you to make the prediction at various points in power system, considering different types of consumers (residential, commercial, industrial) of the electric grid, is applied to the problem short-term electric load forecasting (24 hours ahead). We use a database (Centralised Dataset - CDS) provided by the Electricity Commission de New Zealand to this work.

Aberrant crypt foci and colon cancer: comparison between a short- and medium-term bioassay for colon carcinogenesis using dimethylhydrazine in Wistar rats

Aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in the colon of carcinogen-treated rodents are considered to be the earliest hallmark of colon carcinogenesis. In the present study the relationship between a short-term (4 weeks) and medium-term (30 weeks) assay was assessed in a model of colon carcinogenesis induced by dimethylhydrazine (DMH) in the rat. Six-week-old male Wistar rats were given subcutaneous injections of DMH (40 mg/kg) twice a week for 2 weeks and killed at the end of the 4th or 30th week. ACF were scored for number, distribution pattern along the colon and crypt multiplicity in 0.1% methylene-blue whole-mount preparations. ACF were distinguished from normal crypts by their larger size and elliptical shape. The incidence, distribution and morphology of colon tumors were recorded. The majority of ACF were present in the middle and distal colon of DMH-treated rats and their number increased with time. By the 4th week, 91.5% ACF were composed of one or two crypts and 8.5% had three or more crypts, while by the 30th week 46.9% ACF had three or more crypts. Thus, a progression of ACF consisting of multiple crypts was observed from the 4th to the 30th week. Nine well-differentiated adenocarcinomas were found in 10 rats by the 30th week. Seven tumors were located in the distal colon and two in the middle colon. No tumor was found in the proximal colon. The present data indicate that induction of ACF by DMH in the short-term (4 weeks) assay was correlated with development of well-differentiated adenocarcinomas in the medium-term (30 weeks) assay.