Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Halocarbon and pigment profiles in the waters of the Amundsen and Ross Seas, Antarctica

Little is known regarding the distribution of volatile halogenated organic compounds (halocarbons) in Antarctic waters, and their relation to biophysical variables. During the austral summer (December to January) in 2007-08 halocarbon and pigment concentrations were measured in the Amundsen (100-130ºW) and Ross Sea (158ºW- 160ºE). In addition, halocarbons were determined in air, snow and sea ice. The distribution of halocarbons was influenced to a large extent by sea ice, and to a much lesser extent by pelagic biota. Concentrations of naturally produced halocarbons were elevated in the surface mixed layer in ice covered areas compared to open waters in polynyas and in the bottom waters of the Ross Sea. Higher concentrations of halocarbons were also found in sea ice brine compared to the surface waters. Incubations of snow revealed an additional source of halocarbons. The distribution of halocarbons also varied considerably between the Amundsen and Ross Seas, mainly due to the different oceanographic settings. For iodinated compounds, weak correlations were found with the presence of pigments indicative of Phaeocystis, mainly in the Ross Sea. Saturation anomalies for the surface water and brine (in sea ice) were determined for the two indicator halocarbons bromoform and chloriodomethane. For bromoform, the surface water anomalies varied between -83 and 11%, whereas chloroiodomethane anomalies varied between -6 and 1,200%. The saturation anomalies for brine varied between -56 to 120% for bromoform and 91 to 22,000% for chloroiodomethane, indicating that sea ice could be a possible source both to the atmosphere and the surface waters. Polar waters can have a substantial impact on global halocarbon budgets and need to be included in large-scale assessments.

Suspended matter in waters of the Kem' River estuary (white Sea) and its composition in July-August 2003 and 2002

On the base of detailed studies in the Keret' and Kem' estuaries (Karelian coast of the White Sea) in 2000-2003 a comparative analysis has been carried out. It includes: salinity and freshening of the water column, variations of suspended matter concentration and its chemical composition, current velocity and zooplankton species composition during flood- and ebb tides.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and toxicity of Pseudo-nitzschia fraudulenta in a laboratory experiment

Anthropogenic CO2 is progressively acidifying the ocean, but the responses of harmful algal bloom species that produce toxins that can bioaccumulate remain virtually unknown. The neurotoxin domoic acid is produced by the globally-distributed diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia. This toxin is responsible for amnesic shellfish poisoning, which can result in illness or death in humans and regularly causes mass mortalities of marine mammals and birds. Domoic acid production by Pseudo-nitzschia cells is known to be regulated by nutrient availability, but potential interactions with increasing seawater CO2 concentrations are poorly understood. Here we present experiments measuring domoic acid production by acclimatized cultures of Pseudo-nitzschia fraudulenta that demonstrate a strong synergism between projected future CO2 levels (765 ppm) and silicate-limited growth, which greatly increases cellular toxicity relative to growth under modern atmospheric (360 ppm) or pre-industrial (200 ppm) CO2 conditions. Cellular Si:C ratios decrease with increasing CO2, in a trend opposite to that seen for domoic acid production. The coastal California upwelling system where this species was isolated currently exhibits rapidly increasing levels of anthropogenic acidification, as well as widespread episodic silicate limitation of diatom growth. Our results suggest that the current ecosystem and human health impacts of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms could be greatly exacerbated by future ocean acidification and 'carbon fertilization' of the coastal ocean.